Income Growth and Future Poverty Rates of the Aged

by Seyda G. Wentworth and David Pattison
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 64 No. 3, 2001/2002
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Poverty rates of the elderly (in percent)
Year Actual Benefits
adjutsed		 Benefits and
weights adjusted		 Simple
1959 35.2 36.8 32.9 18.4
1961 -- 34.7 31.0 17.3
1963 -- 32.4 29.2 15.8
1965 -- 29.0 26.3 15.1
1967 29.5 27.6 25.4 13.2
1969 25.3 24.8 23.2 12.5
1971 21.6 20.0 18.6 12.5
1973 16.3 15.7 14.6 10.9
1975 15.3 15.0 14.0 12.5
1977 14.2 13.9 13.4 12.3
1979 15.2 13.9 13.5 12.8
1981 15.3 13.0 12.7 14.3
1983 13.8 12.0 12.0 13.8
1985 12.6 11.8 11.9 12.8
1987 12.5 11.4 11.5 11.9
1989 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.9
1991 12.4 11.1 11.2 12.1
1993 12.2 11.0 11.0 12.0
1995 10.5 10.8 10.8 11.6
1997 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6
SOURCE: Current Population Survery March 1998 data file and U.S. Census Bureau poverty tables.
NOTE: -- = not available.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Past and future poverty rates of the elderly (in percent)
Year Projected Actual
1959 . . . 35.2
1961 . . . --
1963 . . . --
1965 . . . --
1967 . . . 29.5
1969 . . . 25.3
1971 . . . 21.6
1973 . . . 16.3
1975 . . . 15.3
1977 . . . 14.2
1979 . . . 15.2
1981 . . . 15.3
1983 . . . 13.8
1985 . . . 12.6
1987 . . . 12.5
1989 . . . 11.4
1991 . . . 12.4
1993 . . . 12.2
1995 . . . 10.5
1997 10.6 10.5
2002 9.9 . . .
2007 8.9 . . .
2012 8.4 . . .
2017 7.7 . . .
2022 6.9 . . .
2027 6.0 . . .
2032 5.5 . . .
2037 5.0 . . .
2042 4.6 . . .
2047 4.1 . . .
SOURCE: Current Population Survery March 1998 data file and U.S. Census Bureau poverty tables.
NOTE: . . . = not applicable; -- = not available.
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Projected poverty rates of the elderly, under three growth assumptions
Year Actual 0.5 percent
growth		 1 percent
growth		 1.5 percent
growth
1959 35.2 . . . . . . . . .
1961 -- . . . . . . . . .
1963 -- . . . . . . . . .
1965 -- . . . . . . . . .
1967 29.5 . . . . . . . . .
1969 25.3 . . . . . . . . .
1971 21.6 . . . . . . . . .
1973 16.3 . . . . . . . . .
1975 15.3 . . . . . . . . .
1977 14.2 . . . . . . . . .
1979 15.2 . . . . . . . . .
1981 15.3 . . . . . . . . .
1983 13.8 . . . . . . . . .
1985 12.6 . . . . . . . . .
1987 12.5 . . . . . . . . .
1989 11.4 . . . . . . . . .
1991 12.4 . . . . . . . . .
1993 12.2 . . . . . . . . .
1995 10.5 . . . . . . . . .
1997 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.6
2002 . . . 10.0 9.9 9.8
2007 . . . 9.3 8.9 8.7
2012 . . . 8.9 8.4 7.8
2017 . . . 8.5 7.7 6.7
2022 . . . 8.2 6.9 5.5
2027 . . . 7.9 5.9 4.7
2032 . . . 7.9 5.5 4.2
2037 . . . 7.8 5.0 3.6
2042 . . . 7.5 4.6 3.2
2047 . . . 7.1 4.1 2.8
SOURCE: Current Population Survery March 1998 data file and U.S. Census Bureau poverty tables.
NOTE: . . . = not applicable; -- = not available.
Table equivalent for Chart 4. Poverty rates of the elderly in 1997 as components of income are reduced
Percent reduction
in component		 Earnings Pensions a Assets b SSI Social Security
0 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6
10 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.8 12.7
20 10.8 10.8 10.8 11.1 15.5
30 11.0 10.8 10.9 11.2 18.9
40 11.3 11.0 10.9 11.3 24.3
50 11.7 11.3 11.1 11.4 29.6
60 12.3 11.6 11.2 11.5 33.9
70 13.2 12.1 11.3 11.5 37.6
80 14.4 12.8 11.5 11.6 40.8
90 16.6 13.5 12.0 11.6 44.1
100 19.2 14.3 12.6 11.7 47.1
SOURCE: Current Population Survery March 1998 data file.
NOTE: SSI = Supplemental Security Income.
a. Includes public and private pensions and survivor income.
b. Includes dividends, interest, and rent.
Table equivalent for Chart 5. Projected poverty rates of the elderly with wage-adjusted and price-adjusted Supplemental Security Income (in percent)
Year Actual Price-adjusted
SSI		 Wage-adjusted
SSI
1959 35.2 . . . . . .
1961 -- . . . . . .
1963 -- . . . . . .
1965 -- . . . . . .
1967 29.5 . . . . . .
1969 25.3 . . . . . .
1971 21.6 . . . . . .
1973 16.3 . . . . . .
1975 15.3 . . . . . .
1977 14.2 . . . . . .
1979 15.2 . . . . . .
1981 15.3 . . . . . .
1983 13.8 . . . . . .
1985 12.6 . . . . . .
1987 12.5 . . . . . .
1989 11.4 . . . . . .
1991 12.4 . . . . . .
1993 12.2 . . . . . .
1995 10.5 . . . . . .
1997 10.5 10.6 10.6
2002 . . . 10.0 10.0
2007 . . . 9.1 8.9
2012 . . . 8.7 8.4
2017 . . . 8.0 7.7
2022 . . . 7.5 6.9
2027 . . . 6.7 5.9
2032 . . . 6.3 5.5
2037 . . . 5.9 5.0
2042 . . . 5.4 4.6
2047 . . . 4.8 4.1
SOURCE: Current Population Survery March 1998 data file and U.S. Census Bureau poverty tables.
NOTE: . . . = not applicable; -- = not available.
Table equivalent for Chart 6. Nonmarried men aged 30–39, by earnings quartile (in percent)
Year Lowest Second Third Highest
1967 21.8 13.5 7.7 5.2
1968 22.6 13.9 7.9 5.2
1969 23.5 13.1 7.8 5.1
1970 24.1 14.8 9.1 7.2
1971 25.7 18.0 10.3 7.1
1972 25.3 17.4 10.5 7.0
1973 27.9 20.6 12.3 8.1
1974 26.1 18.2 13.4 6.8
1975 25.7 17.0 13.1 9.3
1976 28.2 17.3 11.7 9.0
1977 32.7 20.9 13.6 9.5
1978 31.4 22.0 15.2 11.6
1979 33.7 23.1 16.5 11.1
1980 33.5 23.4 17.7 12.7
1981 35.7 24.4 18.3 15.2
1982 35.4 25.6 18.7 14.3
1983 36.7 26.3 20.7 16.0
1984 37.6 24.9 20.2 16.5
1985 38.4 29.7 21.1 15.4
1986 42.4 27.7 21.4 16.4
1987 45.0 30.8 22.8 16.8
1988 43.8 32.7 23.7 17.9
1989 43.5 32.5 25.1 19.3
1990 46.5 34.0 24.7 18.0
1991 45.7 34.8 25.5 18.2
1992 49.8 35.2 25.6 17.7
1993 47.1 35.0 27.5 17.1
1994 49.01 35.0 25.9 18.6
1995 49.8 35.7 25.5 21.7
1996 49.4 36.5 26.9 18.1
1997 50.6 35.8 26.2 19.5
SOURCE: Current Population Survery March 1998 data file.
NOTE: Nonmarried men include those who are divorced or never married.
Table equivalent for Chart 7. Earnings inequality for men aged 22–61 (in percent)
Year 5th/median 10th/medidan 25th/median 75th/median 90th/median 95th/median
1967 21.0 37.3 68.1 134.3 179.1 223.9
1968 21.1 40.4 70.3 140.6 182.8 224.9
1969 21.7 38.3 66.4 135.4 186.5 229.9
1970 19.8 37.4 67.4 137.2 188.4 240.8
1971 18.8 35.3 65.3 140.0 188.2 235.3
1972 17.3 32.6 64.9 138.5 192.6 238.1
1973 19.8 36.3 66.2 140.0 190.0 240.0
1974 18.6 33.3 66.7 142.9 190.5 238.1
1975 18.2 31.8 63.6 143.4 192.6 236.1
1976 16.3 31.7 63.3 141.7 194.8 239.6
1977 16.3 31.4 61.5 142.1 192.3 238.5
1978 16.8 32.2 63.0 140.0 189.0 245.0
1979 18.6 33.2 65.2 145.9 198.9 252.0
1980 16.0 30.9 61.7 148.1 197.5 246.9
1981 14.0 28.6 57.7 142.9 200.0 251.4
1982 11.5 25.0 55.6 146.8 205.6 266.7
1983 10.8 25.3 56.2 151.4 216.2 270.2
1984 12.11 25.0 55.0 150.0 205.0 255.0
1985 14.3 27.5 59.4 153.4 217.7 272.2
1986 13.5 27.7 56.8 151.4 216.4 279.1
1987 13.6 27.3 56.8 154.5 218.1 272.7
1988 14.8 27.5 57.2 148.3 211.9 275.4
1989 14.7 28.6 58.0 151.0 212.2 285.7
1990 15.6 28.0 56.0 149.7 212.0 280.0
1991 13.9 25.9 56.0 156.0 220.0 288.0
1992 12.5 26.0 56.0 160.0 230.4 300.0
1993 12.4 26.1 59.9 159.7 239.5 313.4
1994 14.9 28.0 56.0 156.6 231.2 309.0
1995 14.4 28.8 56.1 154.7 233.8 305.8
1996 15.9 29.3 55.9 155.2 229.7 303.4
1997 16.7 30.8 60.0 156.7 233.3 320.0
SOURCE: Current Population Survery March 1998 data file.
NOTE: The chart shows the ratio of earnings at various percentiles to median earnings.