2008 Annual Report of the SSI Program

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B. NUMBERS OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE SSI PROGRAM
This section presents projections of the numbers of persons receiving Federal SSI payments by category and age group.1 SSI recipients are categorized as (1) aged or (2) blind or disabled. The following para­graphs discuss the age groupings and recipient categories in more detail.
The aged category includes those individuals whose eligibility for SSI benefits is established based on meeting the age-65 2-or-older requirement, and other SSI eligibility requirements including income and resource limits. In December 2007, there were 1.205 million aged recipients of Federally-admin­istered SSI payments.
The blind or disabled category includes those individuals whose eligibility is established based on meeting the definition of blindness or disability and the applicable income and resource limits as well as any other SSI eligibility requirements. This category is often subdivided into two subcategories based on age: blind or disabled adults (age 18 or older) and blind or disabled children (under age 18). In December 2007, there were 6.155 million blind or disabled recipients of Federally-administered SSI payments.
The blind or disabled adults subcategory includes those individuals age 18 or older who meet the definition of blindness or disability for individuals age 18 or older and SSI income and resource limits. Included in this category are students age 18 to 21 who must meet the adult def­inition of disability and differ from other adults only in that they qualify for a special student earned income exclusion. After attainment of age 65, these individuals generally continue to be classified as blind or disabled adults (rather than aged). In December 2007, there were 5.034 mil­lion blind or disabled recipients of Federally-administered SSI payments age 18 or older, includ­ing 7 thousand students who used the special student earned income exclusion and 812 thousand disabled or blind recipients age 65 or older.
The blind or disabled children subcategory includes those individuals whose eligibility is estab­lished based on meeting the definition of blindness or disability for individuals under age 18. These children are subject to parent-to-child deeming until they reach the age of 18. At age 18 these individuals continue to be eligible for SSI if they meet the definition of blindness or dis­ability for individuals age 18 or older as well as other eligibility criteria and, as a result, are reclassified as blind or disabled adults. In December 2007, there were 1.121 million blind or dis­abled recipients of Federally-administered SSI payments who were under age 18.
Table IV.B1 presents historical and projected numbers of persons applying for SSI benefits, by calendar year of application. Figure IV.B1 presents the same information in graphical form. Recent historical data indicate that applications have grown fairly rapidly beginning in calendar year 2002, and that this growth continued through calendar year 2005. The rate of growth in applications, however, slowed significantly in 2005 and 2006, and for the 2007 Annual Report we projected a slight decline in the numbers of applica­tions for calendar year 2007. The actual result for 2007 represented an increase relative to the number that was estimated last year, with the numbers of applications for 2007 coming in 1.9 percent higher than was estimated in the 2007 Annual Report.
 
Table IV.B1.—SSI Federally-Administered Applications, 1 Calendar Years 1974‑2032
[In thousands]
75 or
older
75 or
older
Blind or
disabled
1 Based on data reported in the Integrated Workload Management System (formerly known as the District Office Workload Report).
2 “All” column estimated by the Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics using a 10-percent sample and published in the SSI Annual Statistical Report.
3 Includes conversions from State programs and applications received in 1973.
4 Estimated totals revised from prior SSI Annual Reports.
5 Fewer than 500.
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. Historical split among age groups is estimated on a calendar year of age basis.
 
The fairly rapid growth in applications from 2002 to 2004 was largely attributable to two main factors: (1) the downturn in the economy that began early in 2001 and (2) the signature proxy process3 introduced by SSA in June 2004. In the short term, our projections are for the numbers of applications to increase by 2 percent in 2008 and then stay roughly level, with the overall level of applications reflecting a permanent upward shift due to the signature proxy process. In the longer term, applications are estimated to grow roughly in line with overall population growth.
The adjudication of these applications involves an evaluation of levels of income and resources available to the applicants, as well as other eligibility factors including marital and citizenship status and living arrangements. In addition, over 90 percent of the applications are for disability benefits which generally require an evaluation of an alleged impairment by the appropriate State Disability Determination Services. An unfavorable disability determination may then be appealed by the applicant through several adminis­trative levels of appeal. If all administrative levels of appeal are exhausted, the applicant may in turn carry his/her appeal to the Federal courts. Data on recent historical experience for this disability decision pro­cess are presented in section V.C.
Table IV.B2 and figure IV.B2 present historical and projected numbers of persons who start receiving SSI payments as a result of this decision process. Individuals are counted as of the first month that they move into SSI payment status. For this reason, we refer to these individuals as “new recipients” rather than “awards.”4 During the 2002 to 2004 period, growth in new recipients did not keep pace with the growth in applications. From 2005 to 2007, the numbers of new recipients declined even though the level of applica­tions during this period was higher than in the preceding years. There are two important contributing fac­tors to the slower growth for new recipients as compared to applications: (1) since 2001 there has been
 
75 or
older
75 or
older
Blind or
disabled
1 Represents period in which first payment was made, not date of first eligibility for payments.
2 Historical totals estimated based on 1‑percent or 10‑percent sample data.
3 Totals for 1974 include recipients converted from previous State programs as well as new recipients to the SSI program during 1974.
4 Fewer than 500.
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. Historical split among age groups is estimated on a calendar year of age basis.
 
substantial growth in the number of claims pending adjudication which is consistent with a longer lag time between application and the allowance decision; and (2) since the introduction of the signature proxy pro­cess there has been a significant increase in the number of denials for applications where the applicant does not meet the nonmedical criteria, causing a permanent downward shift in the allowance rate. How­ever, the number of new recipients is projected to increase in the next 5 years due primarily to the assump­tion that there will be some reduction in the level of pending claims. After 2012, new recipients are projected to remain about level for a few years. Over the longer term the numbers of new recipients are estimated to increase gradually in line with the projected growth in applications.
Some of the persons receiving SSI benefits in a year will be removed from current-payment status during the year because of death or the loss of SSI eligibility. The loss of eligibility can occur either as the result of a redetermination of the individual’s nonmedical factors of eligibility, including income and resources, or due to a determination that he/she is no longer disabled as defined under the Social Security Act, as a result of a continuing disability review.5 For example, disabled children, upon attainment of age 18, lose eligibility if they do not qualify for benefits under the disabled adult eligibility criteria. For purposes of this presentation, we refer to the net reduction in the number of SSI recipients in payment status during a period as the number of SSI terminations for that period.
In the following tables, we have separated the numbers of people moving out of payment status into those leaving due to death (table IV.B3), and those leaving for all other reasons (table IV.B4). Table IV.B5 and figure IV.B3 present historical and projected numbers of total terminations by calendar year.
 
75 or
older
75 or
older
Blind or
disabled
1 Historical totals estimated based on 1‑percent or 10‑percent sample data.
2 Fewer than 500.
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. Historical split among age groups is estimated on a calendar year of age basis.
 
75 or
older
75 or
older
Blind or
disabled
1 Historical totals estimated based on 1‑percent or 10‑percent sample data.
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. Historical split among age groups is estimated on a calendar year of age basis.
 
75 or
older
75 or
older
Blind or
disabled
1 Historical totals estimated based on 1‑percent or 10‑percent sample data.
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. Historical split among age groups is estimated on a calendar year of age basis.
Actual numbers of terminations declined in 2007 compared to 2006. This decline resulted from declines in the terminations for reasons other than death, which were offset in part by small increases in the termina­tions due to death. The decline in the terminations for reasons other than death were essentially due to reductions in the numbers of continuing disability reviews (CDRs) and nonmedical redeterminations pro­cessed due to constraints on Agency administrative resources. Some continued restraint on terminations over the next 10 years is expected due to continued resource limitations. Thereafter a gradual return to nor­mal processing schedules for these reviews is assumed as resources are made available to SSA to carry out these legislatively mandated workloads.
 
Combining the number of persons coming on the SSI payment rolls during a year with the number of those already receiving benefits at the beginning of the year, and subtracting the number leaving the rolls during the year, yields the number of persons receiving Federally-administered SSI payments at the end of the specified period. Individuals receiving Federal SSI payments, who comprise the great majority of Feder­ally-administered recipients, are presented in table IV.B6 and in figure IV.B4. The net effect of actual experience in 2007 was that the number of Federal SSI recipients at the end of 2007 was about 1.8 percent higher than the corresponding number at the end of 2006, but close to 1 percent lower than projected in last year’s report.
 
75 or
older
75 or
older
Blind or
disabled
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. Historical split among age groups is estimated on a calendar year of age basis.
 
Figure IV.B4.—SSI Recipients with Federal Benefits in Current-Payment Status,
by Age Group,
as of December, 1975‑2035
[In thousands]
 
As illustrated in figure IV.B4, the implementation of Public Law 104-121 and Public Law 104-193 resulted in a decline in the Federal recipient population from 1996 to 1997. From the end of 1997 through the end of 2000, the Federal SSI recipient population grew at an annual rate of less than 1 percent. Since 2000, the growth rate for the Federal SSI recipient population has averaged 1.6 percent per year. Our pro­jections indicate that by 2018 we expect to gradually return to a modest growth rate of about 1 percent per year over the remainder of the 25-year projection period. In order to place this projected growth in the context of overall population growth, table IV.B7 and figure IV.B5 present Federal SSI recipients as per­centages of selected Social Security Area population totals.
 
Table IV.B7.—SSI Recipients with Federal Benefits in Current-Payment Status as a Percentage of
Selected Social Security Area Population Totals, as of December, 1974‑2032  
75 or
older
75 or
older
Blind or
disabled1
1 Blind or disabled recipients as a percentage of the total Social Security Area population.
2 Aged recipients as a percentage of the 65 or older Social Security Area population.
3 Total recipients as a percentage of the total Social Security Area population. Totals do not equal sums of components due to overlapping populations.
For the totals shown in table IV.B7, the percentages are calculated using the population age group totals corresponding to the age groups in the Federal recipient categories. Because the ratios for the separate recipient categories are computed as percentages of differing base populations, the percentage for the total SSI recipient population is not the arithmetic sum of the percentages for the respective recipient catego­ries. As indicated in the table, the percentage of the total Social Security Area population who were receiv­ing Federal SSI payments declined from 1975 through the early 1980s. In 1983, this percentage started increasing and continued to increase through 1996. Due to factors described previously, the percentage of the total population receiving Federal SSI payments declined in 1997, but leveled out over the next few years. It has increased slightly over the past few years and is expected to increase gradually over the pro­jection period, due largely to the changing age distribution of the underlying population.
The various subcategories of Federal SSI recipients, however, follow significantly different growth pat­terns in relationship to their respective population totals. The aged Federal SSI recipient population declines steadily as a percentage of the 65 or older population throughout the historical period and most of the projection period, with the decline leveling off near the end of the projection period. In contrast, except for decreases in the late 1990s due to the eligibility redeterminations and continuing disability reviews mandated by Public Law 104-193, the number of blind or disabled children receiving Federal SSI pay­ments increased steadily as a percentage of the under age 18 population, with the increase being quite steep in the early 1990s. The total blind or disabled Federal SSI recipient population as a percentage of the total population remained fairly level until the early 1980s when it started increasing and continued to increase through 1996. After the modest decrease in the late 1990s due to the implementation of legisla­tion described in other sections, the number of blind or disabled persons receiving Federal SSI payments began a gradual increase as a percentage of the total population that is estimated to continue through 2015, reaching more than 2.1 percent of the total population. In the later years of the projection period, the per­centage is expected to gradually decline under the assumption that SSA will receive the resources neces­sary to carry out the normal CDR and nonmedical redetermination workloads.
 
Figure IV.B5.—SSI Recipients with Federal Benefits in Current-Payment Status as a Percentage of
Selected Social Security Area Population Age Groups, as of December, 1975‑2035 
Historical and projected numbers of individuals who receive only a Federally-administered State supple­ment are presented in table IV.B8.
 
Table IV.B8.—SSI Recipients with Federally-Administered State Supplementary Benefits Only,
in Current-Payment Status as of December, 1974‑2032
[In thousands]
75 or
older
75 or
older
Blind or
disabled
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. Historical split among age groups is estimated on a calendar year of age basis.
The combined numbers of persons receiving either a Federal SSI payment or a Federally-administered State supplement are displayed in table IV.B9.
In examining the recent history of SSI participation and the projections of such participation in the near future, certain patterns are worth noting. The rapid increase in the total number of SSI participants in the early 1990s is a function of the growth in the numbers of disabled adults and children. The growth in the numbers of children receiving SSI resulted in large part from the Supreme Court decision in the case of Sullivan v. Zebley, which greatly expanded the criteria used for determining disability for children. The growth in the numbers of disabled adults is a more complicated phenomenon which is not completely understood. However, extensive research conducted under contract to SSA and the Department of Health and Human Services suggested that this growth was the result of a combination of factors including (1) demographic trends, (2) a downturn in the economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s, (3) long-term struc­tural changes in the economy, and (4) changes in other support programs (in particular the reduction or elimination of general assistance programs in certain States). The recent modest changes in program par­ticipation reflects the combined effects of recent legislation described in previous sections, along with changes in some of the factors mentioned above.
 
Table IV.B9.—SSI Recipients with Federally-Administered Benefits in Current-Payment Status
as of December, 1974‑2032
[In thousands]
75 or
older
75 or
older
Blind or
disabled
Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. Historical split among age groups is estimated on a calendar year of age basis.

1
Recipient flows are projected on a calendar-year-age basis, with activity throughout a given year tabulated according to age at the end of the calendar year. Tabulations of recipients in current-payment status are provided as of December of each calendar year at which time calendar year of age and age last birthday are the same. However, the tabulations that reflect activity throughout the calendar year are summarized according to calendar year of age and will not correspond precisely to tabulations summarized according to age last birthday. For example, applications for the 0-17 age group for a given calendar year include applications only for those individuals who are under 18 at the end of the calendar year.

2
Individuals may apply for SSI benefits based on age as of the day preceding their 65th birthday.

3
The signature proxy process eases the application process by eliminating the requirement for a signed paper application from SSI applicants filing claims via the telephone. Previously some portion of those telephone applicants never followed through with a signed paper application. Since the introduction of the signature proxy process, there has been a significant increase in the numbers of denials where the applicant does not meet the nonmedical criteria.

4
In addition, these counts differ slightly from other similar totals identified as “awards” and published by the Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (ORES) in the Annual Statistical Supplement to the Social Security Bulletin. The ORES totals are similar in concept to those used in this report, but differ slightly due to the timing of the action being tabulated. For example, ORES does not count a disability benefit as being awarded until the disability decision is made. In contrast, under the procedures used in this report, individuals first coming on the SSI rolls through a finding of presumptive disability would be counted as a “new recipient” in the first month of presumptive disability payment.

5
Some historical details on income and resource redeterminations and the results of continuing disability reviews are presented in section V.D. Section V.E presents information on certain incentive programs intended to encourage disabled SSI recipients to return to work.


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