This section presents projections of the numbers of persons receiving Federal SSI payments by category and age group.
1 SSI recipients are categorized as (1)
aged or (2)
blind or
disabled. The following paragraphs discuss the age groupings and recipient categories in more detail.
Table IV.B1 presents historical and projected numbers of persons applying for SSI benefits, by calendar year of application. Figure
IV.B1 presents the same information in graphical form. Recent historical data indicate that applications have grown fairly rapidly beginning in calendar year 2002, and that this growth continued through calendar year 2005. The rate of growth in applications, however, slowed significantly in 2005 and 2006, and for the 2007 Annual Report we projected a slight decline in the numbers of applications for calendar year 2007. The actual result for 2007 represented an increase relative to the number that was estimated last year, with the numbers of applications for 2007 coming in 1.9 percent higher than was estimated in the 2007 Annual Report.
The fairly rapid growth in applications from 2002 to 2004 was largely attributable to two main factors: (1) the downturn in the economy that began early in 2001 and (2) the signature proxy process
3 introduced by SSA in June 2004. In the short term, our projections are for the numbers of applications to increase by 2 percent in 2008 and then stay roughly level, with the overall level of applications reflecting a permanent upward shift due to the signature proxy process. In the longer term, applications are estimated to grow roughly in line with overall population growth.
The adjudication of these applications involves an evaluation of levels of income and resources available to the applicants, as well as other eligibility factors including marital and citizenship status and living arrangements. In addition, over 90 percent of the applications are for disability benefits which generally require an evaluation of an alleged impairment by the appropriate State Disability Determination Services. An unfavorable disability determination may then be appealed by the applicant through several administrative levels of appeal. If all administrative levels of appeal are exhausted, the applicant may in turn carry his/her appeal to the Federal courts. Data on recent historical experience for this disability decision process are presented in section
V.C.
Table IV.B2 and figure
IV.B2 present historical and projected numbers of persons who start receiving SSI payments as a result of this decision process. Individuals are counted as of the first month that they move into SSI payment status. For this reason, we refer to these individuals as “
new recipients” rather than “
awards.”
4 During the 2002 to 2004 period, growth in new recipients did not keep pace with the growth in applications. From 2005 to 2007, the numbers of new
recipients declined even though the level of applications during this period was higher than in the preceding years. There are two important contributing factors to the slower growth for new recipients as compared to applications: (1) since 2001 there has been
substantial growth in the number of claims pending adjudication which is consistent with a longer lag time between application and the allowance decision; and (2) since the introduction of the signature proxy process there has been a significant increase in the number of denials for applications where the applicant does not meet the nonmedical criteria, causing a permanent downward shift in the allowance rate. However, the number of new recipients is projected to increase in the next 5 years due primarily to the assumption that there will be some reduction in the level of pending claims. After 2012, new recipients are projected to remain about level for a few years. Over the longer term the numbers of new recipients are estimated to increase gradually in line with the projected growth in applications.
Some of the persons receiving SSI benefits in a year will be removed from current-payment status during the year because of death or the loss of SSI eligibility. The loss of eligibility can occur either as the result of a redetermination of the individual’s nonmedical factors of eligibility, including income and resources, or due to a determination that he/she is no longer disabled as defined under the Social Security Act, as a result of a continuing disability review.
5 For example, disabled children, upon attainment of age 18, lose eligibility if they do not qualify for benefits under the disabled adult eligibility criteria. For purposes of this presentation, we refer to the net reduction in the number of SSI recipients in payment status during a period as the number of SSI terminations for that period.
In the following tables, we have separated the numbers of people moving out of payment status into those leaving due to death (table
IV.B3), and those leaving for all other reasons (table
IV.B4). Table
IV.B5 and figure
IV.B3 present historical and projected numbers of total terminations by calendar year.
