This section presents projections of the numbers of persons receiving Federal SSI payments by category and age group.
1 SSI recipients are categorized as (1)
aged or (2)
blind or
disabled. The following paragraphs discuss the age groupings and recipient categories in more detail.
Table IV.B1 presents historical and projected numbers of persons applying for SSI benefits, by calendar year of application. Figure IV.B1 presents the same information in graphical form. Recent historical data indicate that the number of applications grew fairly rapidly beginning in calendar year 2002 and that this growth continued through calendar year 2005. The rate of growth in applications slowed significantly from 2005 to 2007, but increased significantly again in 2008, with the actual number of applications for 2008 coming in 2.8 percent higher than was estimated in the 2008 Annual Report, largely due to the economic recession. The fairly rapid growth in applications from 2002 to 2004 was largely attributable to two main factors: (1) the downturn in the economy that began early in 2001 and (2) implementation of the signature proxy process
3 introduced by SSA in June 2004. The more recent large increase in applications is
presumed to be attributable to the worsening economy. During the projected recession, higher levels of unemployment are assumed to result in further sharp temporary increases in applications above the general trend level. The elevated levels are assumed to subside as the economy recovers, and to briefly drop below the general trend level on the assumption that some of the earlier additional applications will be cases that would have applied in a later year. In the longer term, applications are estimated to grow roughly in line with overall population growth, although the trend level of applications reflects a permanent upward shift due to the signature proxy process.
The adjudication of these applications involves an evaluation of levels of income and resources available to the applicants, as well as other eligibility factors including marital and citizenship status and living arrangements. In addition, over 90 percent of the applications are for disability benefits which generally require an evaluation of an alleged impairment by the appropriate State DDS. An unfavorable disability determination may then be appealed by the applicant through several administrative levels of appeal. If all administrative levels of appeal are exhausted, the applicant may in turn carry his/her appeal to the Federal courts. Data on recent historical experience for this disability decision process are presented in section
V.
C.
Table IV.B2 and figure
IV.B2 present historical and projected numbers of persons who start receiving SSI payments as a result of this decision process. Individuals are counted as of the first month that they move into SSI payment status. For this reason, we refer to these individuals as “
new recipients” rather than “
awards.”
4 During the 2002 to 2004 period, growth in new recipients did not keep pace with the growth in applications. From 2005 to 2007, the numbers of new recipients declined even though there were more applications during this period than in the preceding years. There were two main factors contributing to the slower growth for new recipients as compared to applications: (1) since 2001 there was substantial
