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Table II.D1. - Selected Economic Assumptions by Alternative, Calendar Years 1960-2070
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Average annual percentage
change in--
------------------------- Average
Average Average annual
annual Real- Average annual percent-
wage in Con- wage annual unemploy- age
covered sumer differ- interest ment increase
Calendar Real employ- Price ential 3/ rate 4/ rate 5/ in labor
year GDP 1/ ment Index 2/ (percent) (percent) (percent) force 6/
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Historical data:
1960-64.. 4.6 3.4 1.2 2.2 3.7 5.7 1.3
1965-69.. 4.2 6.1 3.9 2.2 5.2 3.8 2.1
1970-74.. 3.5 6.6 6.2 .4 6.7 5.4 2.3
1975..... -.6 6.7 9.1 -2.4 7.4 8.5 1.9
1976..... 5.6 8.5 5.7 2.8 7.1 7.7 2.4
1977..... 4.9 6.8 6.5 .3 7.1 7.1 2.9
1978..... 5.0 8.9 7.7 1.2 8.2 6.1 3.2
1979..... 2.9 10.1 11.4 -1.3 9.1 5.8 2.6
1980..... -.3 9.4 13.4 -4.0 11.0 7.1 1.9
1981..... 2.5 9.7 10.3 -.6 13.3 7.6 1.6
1982..... -2.1 6.4 6.0 .4 12.8 9.7 1.4
1983..... 4.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 11.0 9.6 1.2
1984..... 6.8 7.3 3.5 3.8 12.4 7.5 1.8
1985..... 3.7 4.7 3.5 1.2 10.8 7.2 1.7
1986..... 3.0 4.6 1.6 3.0 8.0 7.0 2.0
1987..... 2.9 4.6 3.6 1.0 8.4 6.2 1.7
1988..... 3.8 5.3 4.0 1.3 8.8 5.5 1.4
1989..... 3.4 3.9 4.8 -.9 8.7 5.3 1.8
1990..... 1.3 5.1 5.2 -.1 8.6 5.5 .7
1991..... -1.0 3.0 4.1 -1.1 8.0 6.7 .4
1992..... 2.7 7/ 4.9 2.9 2.0 7.1 7.4 1.2
1993..... 2.2 7/ 2.3 2.8 -.5 6.1 6.8 .7
1994..... 3.5 7/ 2.5 2.5 .0 7.1 6.1 2.3
1995..... 7/ 2.1 7/ 4.1 2.9 1.2 6.9 5.6 .9
Intermediate:
1996..... 2.1 4.1 2.7 1.3 6.4 5.7 .9
1997..... 2.2 4.3 3.2 1.1 6.5 5.8 1.0
1998..... 2.0 4.0 3.2 .8 6.5 5.8 1.0
1999..... 2.0 4.2 3.4 .8 6.5 5.9 .9
2000..... 2.0 4.3 3.5 .8 6.5 6.0 .9
2001..... 2.0 4.4 3.6 .7 6.5 6.0 .9
2002..... 2.0 4.6 3.9 .7 6.5 6.0 .9
2003..... 2.0 4.9 4.0 .9 6.5 6.0 .8
2004..... 2.0 5.0 4.0 1.1 6.5 6.0 .8
2005..... 2.0 5.1 4.0 1.1 6.4 6.0 .8
2010..... 1.8 5.0 4.0 1.0 6.3 6.0 .6
2020..... 1.3 5.1 4.0 1.1 6.3 6.0 .2
2030..... 1.4 5.0 4.0 1.0 6.3 6.0 .2
2040..... 1.4 5.0 4.0 1.0 6.3 6.0 .2
2050..... 1.2 5.0 4.0 1.0 6.3 6.0 .0
2060..... 1.3 5.0 4.0 1.0 6.3 6.0 .1
2070..... 1.2 5.0 4.0 1.0 6.3 6.0 .1
Low Cost:
1996..... 2.8 4.2 2.4 1.7 6.3 5.5 1.1
1997..... 3.1 4.6 2.8 1.8 6.4 5.3 1.2
1998..... 3.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 6.4 5.2 1.3
1999..... 3.0 4.7 3.0 1.6 6.5 5.1 1.2
2000..... 2.9 4.6 3.0 1.6 6.5 5.1 1.1
2001..... 2.7 4.5 3.0 1.5 6.4 5.0 1.1
2002..... 2.6 4.5 3.0 1.5 6.3 5.0 1.0
2003..... 2.5 4.5 3.0 1.5 6.2 5.0 .9
2004..... 2.5 4.6 3.0 1.6 6.1 5.0 .9
2005..... 2.4 4.6 3.0 1.6 6.1 5.0 .8
2010..... 2.3 4.6 3.0 1.6 6.0 5.0 .7
2020..... 1.9 4.6 3.0 1.6 6.0 5.0 .3
2030..... 2.1 4.5 3.0 1.5 6.0 5.0 .5
2040..... 2.2 4.5 3.0 1.5 6.0 5.0 .6
2050..... 2.1 4.5 3.0 1.5 6.0 5.0 .5
2060..... 2.2 4.5 3.0 1.5 6.0 5.0 .6
2070..... 2.1 4.5 3.0 1.5 6.0 5.0 .6
High Cost:
1996..... .0 3.2 2.7 .5 6.3 6.2 .7
1997..... .9 3.6 3.1 .5 6.3 6.8 .5
1998..... 2.5 5.6 5.4 .2 6.9 6.5 .9
1999..... -1.3 4.4 5.4 -1.0 7.6 7.1 .7
2000..... .9 4.8 4.5 .3 7.9 7.9 .3
2001..... 2.9 5.3 5.0 .3 7.5 7.4 .8
2002..... 2.1 5.0 5.0 .0 7.1 7.2 .9
2003..... 1.7 5.2 5.0 .1 7.1 7.1 .8
2004..... 1.5 5.3 5.0 .4 6.9 7.0 .7
2005..... 1.4 5.5 5.0 .4 6.6 7.0 .7
2010..... 1.3 5.5 5.0 .5 6.5 7.0 .5
2020..... .8 5.5 5.0 .5 6.5 7.0 .0
2030..... .8 5.6 5.0 .6 6.5 7.0 .0
2040..... .6 5.5 5.0 .5 6.5 7.0 -.2
2050..... .3 5.5 5.0 .5 6.5 7.0 -.5
2060..... .3 5.5 5.0 .5 6.5 7.0 -.5
2070..... .3 5.5 5.0 .5 6.5 7.0 -.5
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1/ The real GDP (gross domestic product) is the value of total output of goods
and services, expressed in 1992 dollars.
2/ The Consumer Price Index is the annual average value for the calendar year
of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W).
3/ The real-wage differential is the difference between the percentage in-
creases, before rounding, in (1) the average annual wage in covered employment,
and (2) the average annual Consumer Price Index.
4/ The average annual interest rate is the average of the nominal interest
rates, which, in practice, are compounded semiannually, for special public-debt
obligations issuable to the trust funds in each of the 12 months of the year.
5/ Through 2005, the rates shown are unadjusted civilian unemployment rates.
After 2004, the rates are total rates (including military personnel), adjusted
by age and sex based on the average labor force for 1994.
6/ Labor force is the total for the United States (including military
personnel) and reflects the average of the monthly numbers of persons in the
labor force for each year.
7/ Preliminary. Wages in covered employment are considered preliminary for
several years primarily due to uncertainty associated with estimates of amounts
above the benefit and contribution base.
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