Office of Policy

Distributional Effects of Increasing the Benefit Computation Period

The computation period is the number of highest earning years, currently 35, that are used to compute the career average earnings on which Social Security benefits are based. The brief uses MINT model projections to compare the distributional effects of two policy options discussed by the Social Security Advisory Board.

The Out-of-Sample Performance of Stochastic Methods in Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality Rates

This paper evaluates the out-of-sample performance of two stochastic models used to forecast age-specific mortality rates: (1) the model proposed by Lee and Carter (1992); and (2)) a set of univariate autoregressions linked together by a common residual covariance matrix (Denton, Feavor, and Spencer 2005). To this aim, death rates from 16 industrialized nations are used to compare observed ex-post mortality rates to the forecasts generated by the models. Several functions of the individual age-specific mortality rates are also entertained, including life expectancy at birth (e₀), as well as alternative measures of the age-dependency ratio. The latter are constructed based on how the individual mortality rates enter a population projection, and thus, are meant to gauge the potential impact of mortality alone on public retirement programs. In general, both models are found to produce point forecasts for the individual mortality rates, life expectancy, and the dependency ratios that are fairly close to one another. Typically, the median projections of mortality moderately overpredict the actual death rates, particularly for the oldest age groups (ages 65–95 or older). Conversely, the large majority of the point forecasts of life expectancy at birth and the dependency ratios underestimate their observed values. The models also generate interval forecasts of e₀ that are "too wide" as their empirical probability content often exceeds their nominal coverage. However, the Lee-Carter model tends to seriously underpredict the forecast uncertainty associated with both the death rates of the oldest ages and the age-dependency ratios, while the autoregressive approach overpredicts this uncertainty in most cases.

Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 68 No. 1

Includes articles on:

• Disability Benefit Coverage and Program Interactions in the Working-Age Population
• Research on Immigrant Earnings
• Adding Immigrants to Microsimulation Models
• Incorporating Immigrant Flows into Microsimulation Models

Income of the Population 55 or Older, 2004 (Expanded Edition)

This biennial report includes more than 70 statistical tables with data on the major sources and amounts of income for people aged 55 or older and their total income and poverty status.

SSI Monthly Statistics, June 2008

These monthly tables provide statistics for federally administered payments and awards under the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program. The statistics include the number of people who receive payments (by eligibility category and age), the type of payment they receive (federal payment only, state supplementation only, or both), and the amount of the monthly payment (total and average).

International Update, July 2008

This monthly publication covers recent developments in foreign private and public pensions, social security, and retirement.

Social Security Disability Insurance Beneficiaries in the 24-Month Medicare Waiting Period, by State and SSI Receipt

OASDI Monthly Statistics, November 2007

These monthly tables provide statistics for benefits in current-payment status and benefits awarded under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance (OASDI) programs. The statistics include the number of people who receive benefits, the type of benefit they receive, and the amount of the monthly benefit (total and average).