Distributional Effects of Raising the Social Security Payroll Tax
by Dave Shoffner Policy Brief No. 2010-01 (released April 2010)
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Social Security payroll tax rates under alternative policy options, 2006–2080
Year
Immediate increase
Phased increases
As-needed increases
2006
14.4
12.4
12.4
2007
14.4
12.4
12.4
2008
14.4
12.4
12.4
2009
14.4
12.4
12.4
2010
14.4
12.4
12.4
2011
14.4
12.4
12.4
2012
14.4
12.4
12.4
2013
14.4
12.4
12.4
2014
14.4
12.4
12.4
2015
14.4
12.4
12.4
2016
14.4
12.4
12.4
2017
14.4
12.4
12.4
2018
14.4
12.4
12.4
2019
14.4
12.4
12.4
2020
14.4
14.5
12.4
2021
14.4
14.5
12.4
2022
14.4
14.5
12.4
2023
14.4
14.5
12.4
2024
14.4
14.5
12.4
2025
14.4
14.5
12.4
2026
14.4
14.5
12.4
2027
14.4
14.5
12.4
2028
14.4
14.5
12.4
2029
14.4
14.5
12.4
2030
14.4
14.5
12.4
2031
14.4
14.5
12.4
2032
14.4
14.5
12.4
2033
14.4
14.5
12.4
2034
14.4
14.5
12.4
2035
14.4
14.5
12.4
2036
14.4
14.5
12.4
2037
14.4
14.5
12.4
2038
14.4
14.5
12.4
2039
14.4
14.5
12.4
2040
14.4
14.5
12.4
2041
14.4
14.5
12.4
2042
14.4
14.5
15.2
2043
14.4
14.5
16.9
2044
14.4
14.5
16.9
2045
14.4
14.5
16.9
2046
14.4
14.5
16.9
2047
14.4
14.5
17.0
2048
14.4
14.5
17.0
2049
14.4
14.5
17.0
2050
14.4
16.6
17.0
2051
14.4
16.6
17.0
2052
14.4
16.6
17.1
2053
14.4
16.6
17.1
2054
14.4
16.6
17.2
2055
14.4
16.6
17.2
2056
14.4
16.6
17.3
2057
14.4
16.6
17.3
2058
14.4
16.6
17.4
2059
14.4
16.6
17.4
2060
14.4
16.6
17.5
2061
14.4
16.6
17.5
2062
14.4
16.6
17.6
2063
14.4
16.6
17.6
2064
14.4
16.6
17.7
2065
14.4
16.6
17.7
2066
14.4
16.6
17.8
2067
14.4
16.6
17.8
2068
14.4
16.6
17.9
2069
14.4
16.6
17.9
2070
14.4
16.6
18.0
2071
14.4
16.6
18.0
2072
14.4
16.6
18.1
2073
14.4
16.6
18.1
2074
14.4
16.6
18.1
2075
14.4
16.6
18.2
2076
14.4
16.6
18.2
2077
14.4
16.6
18.3
2078
14.4
16.6
18.3
2079
14.4
16.6
18.4
2080
14.4
16.6
18.4
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Percentage of covered workers with at least 1 year of higher Social Security payroll taxes under alternative policy options and for comparative scenario, by birth cohort
Birth Cohort
Immediate increase
Phased increases
As-needed increases
1936–1940
32.5
4.9
0.0
1941–1945
57.0
9.8
0.0
1946–1950
78.3
20.7
0.0
1951–1955
87.6
37.3
0.0
1956–1960
91.4
62.2
0.1
1961–1965
93.4
80.1
0.4
1966–1970
95.2
88.3
1.0
1971–1975
97.9
93.9
17.3
1976–1980
99.6
96.2
52.5
1981–1985
99.8
98.5
78.1
1986–1990
99.9
99.4
88.5
1991–1995
99.8
99.6
93.8
1996–2000
99.9
99.9
96.7
2001–2005
99.9
99.9
98.0
2006–2010
99.8
99.8
98.9
2011–2015
99.9
99.9
99.6
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Percentage increase in total lifetime Social Security payroll taxes relative to current-law taxes, by policy option or scenario and birth cohort
Birth cohort
Immediate increase
Phased increases
As-needed increases
1936–1940
0.3
0.0
0.0
1941–1945
0.7
0.1
0.0
1946–1950
1.7
0.2
0.0
1951–1955
2.9
0.3
0.0
1956–1960
4.4
0.8
0.0
1961–1965
6.4
1.9
0.0
1966–1970
8.8
3.5
0.1
1971–1975
11.2
5.6
0.4
1976–1980
13.3
7.9
1.4
1981–1985
15.2
10.4
3.4
1986–1990
16.1
13.3
6.7
1991–1995
16.2
16.6
10.9
1996–2000
16.2
20.0
15.6
2001–2005
16.2
22.6
20.9
2006–2010
16.2
24.8
26.6
2011–2015
16.2
27.1
32.7
Table equivalent for Chart 4. Median lifetime Social Security benefit/tax ratios under alternative policy options and for comparative scenario, by birth cohort