Distributional Effects of Reducing the Social Security Benefit Formula
by Glenn R. Springstead Policy Brief No. 2010-02 (released November 2010)
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Average percent benefit reduction under the Social Security Advisory Board PIA options and payable benefit levels
Year
Three point
Five point
Upper
Payable benefit
2025
-2.2
-3.7
-3.8
0
2026
-2.3
-3.8
-4.2
0
2027
-2.3
-3.9
-4.6
0
2028
-2.4
-4.0
-5.0
0
2029
-2.5
-4.1
-5.3
0
2030
-2.5
-4.2
-5.6
0
2031
-2.6
-4.3
-6.0
0
2032
-2.6
-4.4
-6.4
0
2033
-2.6
-4.4
-6.8
0
2034
-2.7
-4.5
-7.2
0
2035
-2.8
-4.6
-7.7
0
2036
-2.8
-4.7
-8.0
0
2037
-2.8
-4.7
-8.5
-16.9
2038
-2.9
-4.8
-9.0
-23.8
2039
-2.9
-4.8
-9.5
-23.6
2040
-2.9
-4.9
-9.9
-23.3
2041
-2.9
-4.9
-10.4
-23.1
2042
-3.0
-4.9
-10.8
-22.8
2043
-3.0
-4.9
-11.3
-22.6
2044
-3.0
-5.0
-11.8
-22.3
2045
-3.0
-5.0
-12.2
-22.1
2046
-3.0
-5.0
-12.6
-22.0
2047
-3.0
-5.0
-13.0
-21.8
2048
-3.0
-5.1
-13.4
-21.7
2049
-3.0
-5.0
-13.7
-21.6
2050
-3.0
-5.1
-14.1
-21.4
2051
-3.1
-5.1
-14.4
-21.4
2052
-3.0
-5.1
-14.7
-21.3
2053
-3.1
-5.1
-15.0
-21.3
2054
-3.1
-5.1
-15.2
-21.4
2055
-3.1
-5.1
-15.5
-21.4
2056
-3.1
-5.1
-15.7
-21.5
2057
-3.1
-5.1
-15.9
-21.6
2058
-3.1
-5.1
-16.1
-21.7
2059
-3.1
-5.1
-16.2
-21.8
2060
-3.1
-5.1
-16.4
-21.9
2061
-3.1
-5.1
-16.5
-22.0
2062
-3.1
-5.1
-16.6
-22.1
2063
-3.1
-5.1
-16.7
-22.2
2064
-3.1
-5.1
-16.8
-22.4
2065
-3.1
-5.1
-16.9
-22.5
2066
-3.1
-5.1
-17.0
-22.7
2067
-3.1
-5.1
-17.0
-22.8
2068
-3.1
-5.1
-17.1
-23.0
2069
-3.0
-5.1
-17.1
-23.2
2070
-3.1
-5.1
-17.2
-23.3
2071
-3.1
-5.1
-17.2
-23.5
2072
-3.1
-5.1
-17.2
-23.7
2073
-3.1
-5.1
-17.2
-23.9
2074
-3.1
-5.1
-17.3
-24.1
2075
-3.1
-5.1
-17.3
-24.3
2076
-3.1
-5.1
-17.3
-24.5
2077
-3.1
-5.1
-17.3
-24.7
2078
-3.1
-5.1
-17.3
-25.0
2079
-3.1
-5.1
-17.3
-25.2
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Percent of beneficiaries affected under PIA options by lifetime wage quintile in 2070 (compared to scheduled benefits)
Option
Lifetime wage quintile
Lowest
Second lowest
Middle
Second highest
Highest
Three Point
100
100
100
100
100
Five Point
100
100
100
100
100
Upper
74
99
100
100
100
Table equivalent for Chart 4. Median percent benefit reduction under primary insurance amount options by lifetime wage quintile in 2070 (compared to scheduled benefits)
Option
Lifetime wage quintile
Lowest
Second lowest
Middle
Second highest
Highest
Three Point
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
-3.0
Five Point
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
-5.0
Upper
-5.0
-13.5
-17.6
-20.8
-22.8
Table equivalent for Chart 5. The number of aged in poverty would increase under each option (compared to scheduled benefits)