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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Computation Period

Details: From 35 years to 40 years; phase in 2024–2032 (does not apply to Disability Insurance)

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 19% 0% -2% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 18% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widowed 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 15% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 21% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Lowest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 62% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 59% 0% -7% -1% 0%
Male 66% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 68% 0% -8% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 60% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 63% 0% -7% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -8% -2% 0%
Country of birth
United States 61% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Other countries 68% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Age
60–69 72% 0% -8% -4% 0%
70–79 80% 0% -7% -3% 0%
80–89 48% 0% -4% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 70% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Divorced 60% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Widowed 36% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Never married 72% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 62% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Bachelor 63% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Associate 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
High school 60% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Less than high school 68% 0% -12% -4% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 62% 0% -7% -2% 0%
In poverty 71% 0% -12% -5% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 60% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Second highest 67% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Middle 64% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Second lowest 60% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Lowest 60% 0% -12% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 73% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 21% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 67% 1% -7% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 78% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Sex
Female 77% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Male 80% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 76% 0% -9% -4% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -8% -3% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 83% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Other countries 80% 0% -11% -5% 0%
Age
60–69 71% 0% -9% -4% 0%
70–79 81% 0% -8% -3% 0%
80–89 82% 0% -7% -3% 0%
90 or older 81% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Marital status
Married 83% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Divorced 71% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Widowed 71% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Never married 82% 0% -9% -4% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 83% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Bachelor 83% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Associate 78% 0% -7% -3% 0%
High school 74% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Less than high school 76% 0% -12% -5% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 78% 0% -7% -3% 0%
In poverty 80% 0% -12% -12% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 81% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Second highest 84% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Middle 81% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Second lowest 74% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Lowest 72% 0% -12% -5% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 87% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 49% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 81% 1% -8% -4% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 17% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 42% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Male 44% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 38% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 46% 0% -4% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 42% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 49% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 51% 0% -4% -1% 0%
70–79 57% 0% -4% -1% 0%
80–89 26% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 48% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Divorced 40% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Widowed 22% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Never married 49% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 36% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Associate 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
High school 45% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Less than high school 55% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 41% 0% -3% 0% 0%
In poverty 62% 1% -11% -3% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 35% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 52% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Second lowest 58% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Lowest 58% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 48% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 57% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 57% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Male 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 62% 0% -5% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 55% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 57% 0% -5% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 54% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Other countries 61% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 52% 0% -4% -1% 0%
70–79 59% 0% -5% -1% 0%
80–89 60% 0% -5% -1% 0%
90 or older 50% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Marital status
Married 62% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Divorced 50% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Widowed 48% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Never married 59% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 48% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Bachelor 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Associate 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
High school 60% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Less than high school 64% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
In poverty 73% 0% -12% -7% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 51% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Middle 73% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Second lowest 75% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Lowest 71% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 62% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 37% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 64% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,494 29 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,973 14 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,522 14 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 9% 672 676 4 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,960 17 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 581 3 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 277 3 1%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,507 21 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 987 7 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,683 27 1%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,347 1 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 655 9 1%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,179 4 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 822 9 1%
Never married 16% 16% 832 838 6 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 705 10 1%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,604 10 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 773 7 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 29 29 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,383 27 1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 664 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 191 1 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 4,115 333 8%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,294 195 9%
Male 4% 5% 1,683 1,821 138 8%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 8% 1,058 1,156 97 9%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 1,741 1,887 145 8%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 8% 657 712 55 8%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 6% 326 360 34 10%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,734 223 8%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,381 110 8%
Age
60–69 6% 7% 1,402 1,513 110 7%
70–79 4% 5% 1,337 1,486 149 11%
80–89 4% 4% 873 946 73 8%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 809 97 13%
Divorced 7% 8% 1,070 1,158 87 8%
Widowed 5% 6% 817 886 69 8%
Never married 12% 13% 1,183 1,262 78 6%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 2% 169 189 19 11%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 364 20 5%
Associate 3% 4% 630 730 99 15%
High school 6% 7% 1,694 1,828 133 7%
Less than high school 12% 13% 944 1,004 60 6%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 335 335 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,780 -2 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 3,112 273 9%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 539 30 6%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 4% 218 246 27 12%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 217 1 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 4% 2,822 3,300 477 16%
Sex
Female 3% 4% 1,527 1,744 217 14%
Male 3% 4% 1,296 1,556 260 20%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 5% 963 1,119 155 16%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 3% 1,125 1,341 216 19%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 482 55 13%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 309 359 50 16%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,770 2,090 319 18%
Other countries 5% 6% 1,052 1,211 158 15%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 1,079 134 14%
70–79 3% 4% 1,057 1,256 198 18%
80–89 3% 3% 628 735 106 16%
90 or older 2% 3% 192 230 38 19%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 576 105 22%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 785 98 14%
Widowed 3% 4% 486 590 103 21%
Never married 7% 8% 1,179 1,350 170 14%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 199 42 27%
Bachelor 1% 2% 216 277 60 28%
Associate 2% 3% 460 531 71 15%
High school 4% 5% 1,229 1,438 209 17%
Less than high school 8% 9% 761 854 93 12%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0 481 481 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,819 -3 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 4% 2,197 2,602 404 18%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 363 49 15%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 156 180 24 15%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 32% 0% -3% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 143% 448%
Sex
Female 29% 0% -2% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 181% 643%
Male 34% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 118% 262%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 38% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 160% 569%
White, non-Hispanic 30% 0% -2% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 139% 404%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 30% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 148% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 36% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 144% 505%
Country of birth
United States 30% 0% -2% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 139% 414%
Other countries 40% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 161% 595%
Highest education level
Graduate 36% 0% -3% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 23% 124% 260%
Bachelor 36% 0% -3% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 22% 135% 356%
Associate 31% 0% -3% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 11% 144% 391%
High school 29% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 151% 516%
Less than high school 31% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 158% 803%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 36% 0% -2% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 39% 107% 155%
Second highest 39% 0% -3% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 132% 199%
Middle 32% 0% -3% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 158% 268%
Second lowest 31% 0% -3% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 22% 225% 503%
Lowest 21% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 249% 1,553%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 33% 0% -2% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 47% 107% 151%
Second highest 39% 0% -3% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 134% 200%
Middle 35% 0% -3% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 160% 265%
Second lowest 31% 0% -3% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 216% 450%
Lowest 22% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 300% 1,571%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 35% 0% -2% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 55% 115% 191%
Second highest 35% 0% -2% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 36% 137% 268%
Middle 32% 0% -3% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 158% 362%
Second lowest 33% 0% -3% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 182% 514%
Lowest 25% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 201% 1,137%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 66% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 129% 404% 0% 124% 393%
Sex
Female 67% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 149% 551%
Male 65% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 106% 262%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 60% 0% -9% -4% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 127% 438%
White, non-Hispanic 71% 0% -7% -3% 0% 11% 130% 403% 11% 125% 394%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 59% 0% -9% -3% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 123% 343%
All other races, non-Hispanic 64% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 100% 361%
Country of birth
United States 69% 0% -7% -3% 0% 6% 130% 369% 6% 125% 359%
Other countries 59% 0% -10% -5% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 119% 585%
Highest education level
Graduate 78% 0% -7% -3% 0% 17% 113% 278% 17% 109% 269%
Bachelor 75% 0% -7% -3% 0% 5% 117% 311% 5% 113% 296%
Associate 67% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 128% 336%
High school 60% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 137% 522%
Less than high school 54% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 127% 611%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 86% 0% -5% -2% 0% 40% 96% 138% 39% 93% 133%
Second highest 80% 0% -7% -4% 0% 31% 128% 192% 30% 123% 186%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -4% 0% 26% 157% 271% 25% 150% 265%
Second lowest 60% 0% -11% -4% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 208% 550%
Lowest 37% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 113% 2,004%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 87% 0% -5% -2% 0% 42% 96% 137% 41% 94% 133%
Second highest 80% 0% -7% -4% 0% 39% 129% 194% 37% 124% 188%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -4% 0% 24% 159% 274% 23% 151% 268%
Second lowest 61% 0% -9% -4% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 204% 495%
Lowest 34% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 86% 2,123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 86% 0% -5% -2% 0% 46% 99% 163% 45% 96% 157%
Second highest 82% 0% -7% -3% 0% 44% 131% 267% 42% 125% 259%
Middle 71% 0% -7% -4% 0% 35% 158% 359% 34% 150% 352%
Second lowest 60% 0% -7% -4% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 180% 561%
Lowest 32% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 34% 1,021%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 66% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 115% 348%
Sex
Female 67% 0% -7% -3% 0% 5% 145% 519% 5% 138% 509%
Male 65% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 98% 237%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 61% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 119% 391%
White, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -7% -3% 0% 17% 120% 343% 16% 115% 332%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 55% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 113% 332%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 105% 349% 0% 100% 323%
Country of birth
United States 67% 0% -7% -3% 0% 9% 120% 319% 9% 115% 310%
Other countries 60% 0% -10% -5% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 114% 550%
Highest education level
Graduate 78% 0% -7% -3% 0% 21% 109% 259% 21% 105% 247%
Bachelor 76% 0% -7% -3% 0% 13% 110% 278% 12% 106% 264%
Associate 65% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 124% 318% 0% 119% 308%
High school 59% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 124% 430%
Less than high school 56% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 118% 579%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 86% 0% -5% -2% 0% 40% 88% 127% 39% 86% 123%
Second highest 79% 0% -7% -3% 0% 34% 118% 177% 33% 113% 171%
Middle 68% 0% -7% -4% 0% 30% 144% 246% 28% 137% 243%
Second lowest 59% 0% -10% -4% 0% 9% 196% 466% 8% 184% 457%
Lowest 36% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 115% 1,672%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 87% 0% -4% -2% 0% 43% 89% 127% 42% 86% 123%
Second highest 79% 0% -7% -4% 0% 38% 119% 179% 37% 113% 174%
Middle 67% 0% -7% -4% 0% 27% 144% 249% 27% 137% 244%
Second lowest 60% 0% -8% -4% 0% 13% 192% 442% 13% 181% 434%
Lowest 35% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 112% 1,720%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 86% 0% -5% -2% 0% 45% 91% 145% 44% 88% 141%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -3% 0% 46% 122% 227% 44% 117% 220%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -4% 0% 31% 140% 302% 30% 133% 297%
Second lowest 58% 0% -7% -4% 0% 11% 172% 532% 11% 165% 522%
Lowest 34% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 74% 980%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 65% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 119% 357%
Sex
Female 66% 0% -8% -3% 0% 1% 149% 531% 1% 143% 519%
Male 64% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 103% 243%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 60% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 123% 392%
White, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -7% -3% 0% 21% 126% 363% 20% 120% 353%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 57% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 116% 302%
All other races, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 113% 335% 0% 108% 314%
Country of birth
United States 67% 0% -7% -3% 0% 11% 125% 324% 10% 120% 316%
Other countries 60% 0% -9% -4% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 117% 498%
Highest education level
Graduate 75% 0% -7% -3% 0% 30% 116% 286% 30% 111% 271%
Bachelor 76% 0% -7% -3% 0% 9% 115% 300% 8% 111% 282%
Associate 64% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 129% 325% 0% 124% 313%
High school 59% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 127% 430%
Less than high school 56% 0% -12% -4% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 121% 555%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 85% 0% -5% -2% 0% 45% 95% 133% 44% 92% 129%
Second highest 80% 0% -7% -4% 0% 43% 124% 181% 41% 118% 173%
Middle 66% 0% -7% -4% 0% 23% 149% 251% 23% 142% 245%
Second lowest 58% 0% -11% -4% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 196% 493%
Lowest 36% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 112% 1,500%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 85% 0% -5% -2% 0% 46% 95% 133% 45% 92% 129%
Second highest 79% 0% -8% -4% 0% 44% 123% 182% 42% 118% 176%
Middle 67% 0% -7% -4% 0% 30% 149% 254% 29% 142% 247%
Second lowest 59% 0% -8% -4% 0% 2% 202% 466% 2% 191% 460%
Lowest 35% 0% -12% -5% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 112% 1,541%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 84% 0% -5% -2% 0% 50% 98% 152% 49% 96% 148%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -3% 0% 46% 125% 235% 44% 119% 229%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -4% 0% 36% 146% 316% 35% 139% 309%
Second lowest 57% 0% -7% -4% 0% 8% 183% 543% 8% 174% 532%
Lowest 34% 0% -12% -6% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 67% 763%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 40% 0% 0% 3% 24% 46% 80% 24% 47% 81%
Sex
Female 1% 41% 0% 0% 4% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 1% 39% 0% 0% 3% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 67%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 1% 42% 0% 0% 4% 27% 51% 86% 27% 52% 87%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 40% 0% 0% 3% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 77%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 33% 0% 0% 3% 27% 50% 86% 28% 51% 87%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 47% 0% 0% 4% 26% 48% 90% 27% 49% 90%
Country of birth
United States 1% 38% 0% 0% 3% 23% 44% 76% 23% 45% 78%
Other countries 1% 48% 0% 0% 4% 29% 53% 90% 29% 54% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 53% 0% 1% 4% 21% 42% 72% 22% 42% 73%
Bachelor 2% 50% 0% 0% 4% 22% 42% 76% 22% 43% 78%
Associate 1% 37% 0% 0% 3% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 77%
High school 1% 33% 0% 0% 3% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 84%
Less than high school 2% 35% 0% 0% 4% 32% 57% 90% 33% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 2% 60% 0% 1% 4% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 49%
Second highest 1% 35% 0% 0% 2% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 57%
Middle 2% 38% 0% 0% 3% 28% 44% 64% 28% 44% 66%
Second lowest 1% 43% 0% 0% 4% 38% 51% 79% 38% 52% 80%
Lowest 1% 22% 0% 0% 3% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 1% 58% 0% 1% 4% 15% 34% 50% 16% 34% 52%
Second highest 2% 36% 0% 0% 2% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 2% 37% 0% 0% 3% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 67%
Second lowest 1% 44% 0% 0% 4% 37% 51% 81% 37% 52% 83%
Lowest 1% 24% 0% 0% 4% 51% 68% 112% 52% 68% 115%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 1% 59% 0% 1% 4% 17% 36% 54% 17% 37% 55%
Second highest 2% 41% 0% 0% 3% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 64%
Middle 1% 35% 0% 0% 3% 27% 43% 70% 27% 44% 72%
Second lowest 1% 38% 0% 0% 4% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 87%
Lowest 1% 26% 0% 0% 3% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 91%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 70% 0% 4% 8% 24% 47% 82% 24% 49% 86%
Sex
Female 4% 69% 0% 4% 8% 27% 52% 90% 29% 54% 90%
Male 4% 71% 0% 4% 7% 22% 43% 71% 23% 44% 74%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 66% 0% 3% 8% 28% 52% 90% 29% 53% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 73% 0% 4% 8% 23% 45% 78% 23% 46% 82%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 58% 0% 3% 7% 26% 51% 85% 26% 53% 87%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 78% 0% 5% 9% 22% 45% 81% 23% 48% 86%
Country of birth
United States 4% 71% 0% 4% 8% 23% 46% 78% 24% 48% 81%
Other countries 4% 68% 0% 4% 8% 26% 53% 90% 27% 56% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 5% 81% 0% 5% 9% 21% 41% 74% 21% 43% 78%
Bachelor 5% 81% 0% 5% 8% 21% 42% 79% 21% 44% 83%
Associate 4% 70% 0% 3% 7% 24% 46% 74% 25% 48% 77%
High school 3% 63% 0% 3% 7% 28% 50% 87% 29% 52% 90%
Less than high school 3% 58% 0% 3% 8% 31% 56% 90% 31% 58% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 5% 90% 1% 6% 8% 15% 31% 46% 16% 32% 49%
Second highest 5% 80% 0% 3% 6% 23% 38% 56% 23% 39% 59%
Middle 4% 76% 0% 3% 6% 30% 45% 65% 31% 46% 69%
Second lowest 3% 69% 0% 5% 8% 40% 55% 82% 42% 56% 88%
Lowest 3% 34% 0% 0% 8% 56% 73% 124% 59% 74% 134%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 5% 91% 1% 6% 8% 15% 33% 49% 15% 35% 52%
Second highest 5% 81% 0% 3% 6% 22% 37% 58% 22% 38% 61%
Middle 4% 76% 0% 3% 6% 30% 45% 67% 31% 46% 71%
Second lowest 3% 67% 0% 5% 8% 38% 54% 82% 40% 55% 88%
Lowest 2% 35% 0% 0% 8% 55% 71% 116% 58% 72% 125%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 5% 90% 0% 5% 8% 16% 35% 51% 16% 37% 55%
Second highest 5% 81% 0% 3% 7% 22% 39% 62% 22% 40% 65%
Middle 4% 75% 0% 3% 7% 28% 45% 72% 29% 46% 76%
Second lowest 4% 67% 0% 4% 7% 35% 52% 85% 36% 54% 90%
Lowest 2% 37% 0% 0% 8% 50% 66% 102% 52% 67% 106%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 69% 0% 4% 8% 24% 47% 83% 25% 49% 87%
Sex
Female 3% 69% 0% 4% 8% 28% 52% 90% 29% 55% 90%
Male 4% 70% 0% 3% 7% 22% 43% 72% 23% 45% 75%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 64% 0% 3% 8% 27% 50% 89% 28% 52% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 73% 0% 4% 8% 23% 45% 80% 24% 47% 84%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 3% 55% 0% 2% 7% 29% 53% 84% 30% 54% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 79% 0% 5% 9% 24% 45% 85% 25% 47% 88%
Country of birth
United States 4% 70% 0% 4% 8% 24% 46% 80% 25% 48% 83%
Other countries 3% 67% 0% 4% 8% 27% 53% 90% 29% 55% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 4% 82% 0% 5% 9% 22% 42% 77% 23% 45% 81%
Bachelor 5% 80% 0% 5% 8% 21% 42% 81% 21% 44% 85%
Associate 3% 68% 0% 3% 7% 25% 46% 77% 26% 48% 81%
High school 3% 60% 0% 2% 7% 28% 51% 87% 29% 52% 90%
Less than high school 3% 58% 0% 3% 8% 31% 55% 90% 32% 58% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 4% 90% 1% 6% 8% 16% 31% 46% 16% 32% 49%
Second highest 5% 80% 0% 3% 6% 24% 39% 57% 25% 40% 60%
Middle 4% 74% 0% 3% 6% 31% 45% 65% 32% 46% 69%
Second lowest 3% 68% 0% 5% 8% 40% 54% 81% 42% 56% 87%
Lowest 2% 33% 0% 0% 8% 57% 74% 125% 60% 76% 134%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 4% 91% 1% 6% 8% 15% 34% 48% 16% 35% 52%
Second highest 5% 80% 0% 3% 6% 24% 39% 59% 24% 40% 61%
Middle 4% 73% 0% 3% 6% 31% 45% 67% 31% 46% 71%
Second lowest 3% 67% 0% 5% 8% 39% 53% 81% 41% 55% 87%
Lowest 2% 34% 0% 0% 8% 56% 73% 118% 59% 74% 124%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 5% 90% 0% 6% 8% 16% 35% 51% 17% 37% 54%
Second highest 5% 81% 0% 3% 7% 23% 40% 63% 23% 41% 66%
Middle 4% 75% 0% 3% 7% 29% 45% 72% 30% 46% 76%
Second lowest 3% 65% 0% 4% 7% 35% 52% 86% 36% 54% 90%
Lowest 2% 36% 0% 0% 8% 50% 67% 104% 52% 69% 107%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 69% 0% 4% 8% 23% 47% 84% 24% 49% 88%
Sex
Female 3% 69% 0% 4% 8% 28% 53% 90% 29% 55% 91%
Male 4% 70% 0% 4% 7% 22% 43% 72% 23% 44% 74%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 65% 0% 3% 8% 26% 50% 88% 26% 52% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 72% 0% 4% 8% 22% 45% 81% 23% 47% 85%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 3% 59% 0% 3% 7% 27% 52% 84% 28% 53% 87%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 79% 0% 5% 8% 22% 43% 83% 23% 46% 86%
Country of birth
United States 4% 70% 0% 4% 8% 23% 46% 80% 24% 48% 84%
Other countries 3% 68% 0% 4% 8% 26% 52% 90% 27% 54% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 4% 81% 0% 5% 9% 21% 42% 79% 21% 45% 83%
Bachelor 4% 82% 0% 5% 8% 21% 42% 82% 22% 44% 87%
Associate 4% 67% 0% 3% 7% 23% 46% 76% 24% 47% 79%
High school 3% 61% 0% 2% 7% 27% 50% 89% 28% 52% 90%
Less than high school 3% 59% 0% 3% 8% 31% 56% 90% 32% 58% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 5% 90% 1% 6% 8% 15% 31% 46% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 5% 80% 0% 3% 6% 23% 39% 56% 23% 40% 59%
Middle 4% 75% 0% 3% 6% 31% 45% 65% 33% 46% 68%
Second lowest 3% 67% 0% 5% 8% 40% 55% 82% 41% 56% 88%
Lowest 2% 34% 0% 0% 9% 57% 75% 133% 59% 76% 141%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 4% 91% 1% 6% 8% 15% 33% 47% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 5% 80% 0% 3% 6% 22% 38% 58% 23% 39% 60%
Middle 4% 73% 0% 3% 6% 31% 45% 66% 32% 46% 70%
Second lowest 3% 67% 0% 5% 8% 38% 54% 84% 40% 55% 89%
Lowest 2% 36% 0% 0% 9% 56% 74% 124% 59% 75% 132%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 4% 90% 0% 6% 9% 16% 35% 50% 16% 36% 54%
Second highest 5% 81% 0% 3% 7% 22% 40% 62% 23% 41% 65%
Middle 5% 74% 0% 3% 6% 27% 45% 72% 28% 46% 76%
Second lowest 3% 65% 0% 4% 7% 35% 53% 85% 37% 54% 90%
Lowest 2% 37% 0% 0% 8% 51% 67% 108% 53% 69% 114%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: compyr OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision B4.2.