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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Index Primary Insurance Amount (PIA) Factors
to Longevity

Details: Multiply factors by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 in 2028 to the life expectancy at age 67 in the 4th year prior to the year of initial benefit eligibility

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 44% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Male 47% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 51% 0% -4% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 41% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 44% 0% -4% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 43% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Other countries 46% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 75% 0% -4% -3% 0%
70–79 60% 0% -2% -1% 0%
80–89 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 49% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Divorced 43% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Widowed 19% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Never married 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 44% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Bachelor 41% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Associate 44% 0% -4% 0% 0%
High school 42% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Less than high school 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
In poverty 50% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 46% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Second highest 47% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Middle 44% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Second lowest 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 42% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 50% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 20% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 46% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 84% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Sex
Female 82% 0% -9% -5% 0%
Male 85% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 82% 0% -9% -6% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 85% 0% -9% -5% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 78% 0% -9% -5% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 88% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Country of birth
United States 83% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Other countries 84% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Age
60–69 77% 0% -10% -9% 0%
70–79 89% 0% -8% -7% 0%
80–89 90% 0% -5% -4% -1%
90 or older 66% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Marital status
Married 87% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Divorced 82% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Widowed 75% 0% -7% -3% 0%
Never married 85% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Bachelor 87% 0% -9% -5% 0%
Associate 83% 0% -9% -6% 0%
High school 79% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Less than high school 82% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 84% 0% -9% -6% 0%
In poverty 82% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 91% 0% -9% -6% -1%
Second highest 88% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Middle 84% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Second lowest 79% 0% -9% -5% 0%
Lowest 77% 0% -9% -5% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 91% 0% -9% -6% -1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 66% 0% -8% -3% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 87% 0% -9% -6% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 30% 0% -2% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 21% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 26% 0% -2% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 23% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 47% 0% -3% 0% 0%
70–79 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
80–89 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 24% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Divorced 25% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Widowed 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 16% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 25% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 35% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 22% 0% -1% 0% 0%
In poverty 43% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 15% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second lowest 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lowest 37% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 72% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 71% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Male 73% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 73% 0% -6% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 72% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Other countries 70% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 72% 0% -7% -2% 0%
70–79 81% 0% -6% -2% 0%
80–89 72% 0% -4% -1% 0%
90 or older 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 79% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Divorced 69% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Widowed 56% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Never married 71% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 71% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Bachelor 70% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Associate 74% 0% -6% -2% 0%
High school 72% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Less than high school 72% 0% -7% -2% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 72% 0% -5% -2% 0%
In poverty 74% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 49% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 74% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Middle 81% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Second lowest 79% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Lowest 75% 0% -8% -4% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 78% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 54% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 77% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,958 0 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,507 0 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 672 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,943 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 577 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,486 0 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 979 0 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,655 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,346 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 646 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,175 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 813 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 832 832 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 694 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,593 0 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 765 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,355 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 664 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 189 0 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 3,908 126 3%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,169 70 3%
Male 4% 5% 1,683 1,739 56 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,091 32 3%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,801 59 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 8% 657 684 27 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 332 6 1%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,611 99 3%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,297 26 2%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,488 85 6%
70–79 4% 4% 1,337 1,377 40 3%
80–89 4% 4% 873 873 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 747 35 4%
Divorced 7% 7% 1,070 1,111 41 3%
Widowed 5% 6% 817 837 19 2%
Never married 12% 12% 1,183 1,213 29 2%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 169 171 1 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 354 10 2%
Associate 3% 4% 630 675 44 7%
High school 6% 7% 1,694 1,743 49 2%
Less than high school 12% 13% 944 965 20 2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 126 126 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,782 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 2,943 104 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 520 12 2%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 4% 218 227 8 3%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 217 1 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 4% 2,822 3,291 468 16%
Sex
Female 3% 4% 1,527 1,738 211 13%
Male 3% 4% 1,296 1,553 257 19%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 5% 963 1,118 154 16%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 3% 1,125 1,331 206 18%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 487 60 14%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 309 356 47 15%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,770 2,111 340 19%
Other countries 5% 6% 1,052 1,180 128 12%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 1,135 190 20%
70–79 3% 4% 1,057 1,268 211 19%
80–89 3% 3% 628 690 61 9%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 198 5 2%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 543 72 15%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 808 121 17%
Widowed 3% 4% 486 575 88 18%
Never married 7% 8% 1,179 1,365 185 15%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 191 35 22%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 257 40 18%
Associate 2% 3% 460 543 82 18%
High school 4% 5% 1,229 1,436 206 16%
Less than high school 8% 9% 761 864 103 13%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0 472 472 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,819 -3 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 4% 2,197 2,607 409 18%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 360 45 14%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 156 169 13 8%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 145% 450%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 182% 644%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 119% 266%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 162% 569%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 140% 406%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 149% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 146% 508%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 141% 415%
Other countries 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 164% 599%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 23% 125% 264%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 22% 137% 361%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 146% 393%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 153% 519%
Less than high school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 161% 803%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 39% 108% 157%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 134% 201%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 160% 270%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 23% 228% 504%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 254% 1,561%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 47% 108% 152%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 136% 202%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 161% 267%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 218% 454%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 306% 1,585%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 56% 115% 194%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 36% 139% 269%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 160% 363%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 185% 516%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 205% 1,138%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 70% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 129% 404% 0% 124% 395%
Sex
Female 71% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 150% 557%
Male 69% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 106% 267%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 64% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 128% 440%
White, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -5% -3% 0% 11% 130% 403% 11% 125% 395%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 61% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 125% 347%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -5% -4% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 100% 369%
Country of birth
United States 73% 0% -5% -3% 0% 6% 130% 369% 6% 125% 360%
Other countries 62% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 120% 589%
Highest education level
Graduate 84% 0% -5% -4% 0% 17% 113% 278% 17% 108% 273%
Bachelor 80% 0% -5% -4% 0% 5% 117% 311% 5% 113% 302%
Associate 70% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 128% 343%
High school 64% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 138% 521%
Less than high school 57% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 128% 612%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -5% -4% -2% 40% 96% 138% 38% 92% 133%
Second highest 82% 0% -5% -3% 0% 31% 128% 192% 30% 123% 187%
Middle 72% 0% -5% -3% 0% 26% 157% 271% 26% 151% 266%
Second lowest 62% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 212% 556%
Lowest 42% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 117% 2,020%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 94% 0% -5% -4% -2% 42% 96% 137% 40% 92% 132%
Second highest 83% 0% -5% -3% 0% 39% 129% 194% 38% 124% 188%
Middle 72% 0% -5% -3% 0% 24% 159% 274% 23% 153% 268%
Second lowest 64% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 208% 495%
Lowest 37% 0% -5% -2% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 92% 2,132%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -5% -4% -2% 46% 99% 163% 44% 95% 156%
Second highest 85% 0% -5% -3% 0% 44% 131% 267% 42% 126% 259%
Middle 74% 0% -5% -3% 0% 35% 158% 359% 34% 152% 353%
Second lowest 63% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 183% 566%
Lowest 34% 0% -5% -3% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 36% 1,032%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 73% 0% -10% -9% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 109% 339%
Sex
Female 75% 0% -10% -9% 0% 5% 145% 519% 5% 132% 494%
Male 71% 0% -10% -9% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 93% 233%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 68% 0% -10% -9% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 114% 385%
White, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -10% -9% 0% 17% 120% 343% 16% 109% 324%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 61% 0% -10% -9% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 108% 325%
All other races, non-Hispanic 76% 0% -11% -9% -3% 0% 105% 349% 0% 95% 320%
Country of birth
United States 75% 0% -10% -9% 0% 9% 120% 319% 8% 109% 304%
Other countries 67% 0% -10% -9% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 110% 541%
Highest education level
Graduate 86% 0% -10% -9% -3% 21% 109% 259% 20% 99% 240%
Bachelor 83% 0% -10% -9% -1% 13% 110% 278% 11% 100% 257%
Associate 72% 0% -10% -9% 0% 0% 124% 318% 0% 113% 302%
High school 67% 0% -10% -9% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 118% 423%
Less than high school 62% 0% -10% -9% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 114% 580%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 96% 0% -11% -9% -8% 40% 88% 127% 36% 79% 115%
Second highest 85% 0% -10% -9% 0% 34% 118% 177% 31% 107% 166%
Middle 75% 0% -10% -9% 0% 30% 144% 246% 27% 131% 238%
Second lowest 65% 0% -10% -8% 0% 9% 196% 466% 8% 180% 447%
Lowest 45% 0% -10% -8% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 111% 1,663%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -11% -9% -8% 43% 89% 127% 39% 80% 115%
Second highest 85% 0% -10% -9% 0% 38% 119% 179% 35% 108% 168%
Middle 75% 0% -10% -9% 0% 27% 144% 249% 26% 131% 239%
Second lowest 67% 0% -10% -8% 0% 13% 192% 442% 12% 176% 425%
Lowest 42% 0% -10% -8% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 113% 1,710%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 96% 0% -11% -9% -8% 45% 91% 145% 41% 82% 132%
Second highest 88% 0% -10% -9% 0% 46% 122% 227% 43% 110% 212%
Middle 76% 0% -10% -9% 0% 31% 140% 302% 30% 128% 288%
Second lowest 65% 0% -10% -8% 0% 11% 172% 532% 10% 158% 510%
Lowest 40% 0% -10% -8% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 73% 952%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 75% 0% -15% -14% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 108% 336%
Sex
Female 77% 0% -15% -14% 0% 1% 149% 531% 1% 130% 483%
Male 73% 0% -16% -14% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 92% 232%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 70% 0% -15% -14% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 112% 375%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -15% -14% 0% 21% 126% 363% 18% 108% 332%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 65% 0% -15% -14% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 106% 286%
All other races, non-Hispanic 78% 0% -16% -14% -8% 0% 113% 335% 0% 97% 301%
Country of birth
United States 77% 0% -15% -14% 0% 11% 125% 324% 9% 108% 300%
Other countries 68% 0% -16% -14% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 105% 464%
Highest education level
Graduate 87% 0% -16% -14% -6% 30% 116% 286% 27% 99% 251%
Bachelor 85% 0% -16% -14% -5% 9% 115% 300% 8% 99% 262%
Associate 73% 0% -15% -14% 0% 0% 129% 325% 0% 112% 302%
High school 68% 0% -15% -14% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 114% 408%
Less than high school 64% 0% -15% -14% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 111% 519%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 97% 0% -16% -15% -13% 45% 95% 133% 38% 81% 114%
Second highest 88% 0% -15% -14% -1% 43% 124% 181% 37% 106% 157%
Middle 76% 0% -15% -14% 0% 23% 149% 251% 22% 129% 233%
Second lowest 67% 0% -15% -14% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 182% 468%
Lowest 45% 0% -15% -13% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 107% 1,419%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 97% 0% -16% -15% -13% 46% 95% 133% 40% 81% 114%
Second highest 88% 0% -15% -14% -1% 44% 123% 182% 38% 106% 160%
Middle 76% 0% -15% -14% 0% 30% 149% 254% 28% 129% 235%
Second lowest 69% 0% -15% -14% 0% 2% 202% 466% 2% 177% 438%
Lowest 43% 0% -15% -13% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 109% 1,450%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 97% 0% -16% -15% -13% 50% 98% 152% 43% 84% 132%
Second highest 90% 0% -15% -14% -3% 46% 125% 235% 40% 107% 213%
Middle 79% 0% -15% -14% 0% 36% 146% 316% 32% 126% 292%
Second lowest 68% 0% -15% -14% 0% 8% 183% 543% 7% 159% 511%
Lowest 39% 0% -15% -14% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 65% 744%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 80%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 42% 72%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 76%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 76%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 83%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 44% 64%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 79%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 34% 50%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 66%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 81%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 36% 54% 17% 36% 54%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 63%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 70%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 86%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -5% -3% 0% 24% 47% 82% 22% 45% 80%
Sex
Female 78% 0% -5% -3% 0% 27% 52% 90% 26% 51% 90%
Male 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 22% 43% 71% 21% 41% 69%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 78% 0% -5% -3% 0% 28% 52% 90% 26% 50% 88%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 23% 45% 78% 21% 43% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -5% -3% 0% 26% 51% 85% 24% 50% 82%
All other races, non-Hispanic 87% 0% -5% -4% 0% 22% 45% 81% 21% 44% 78%
Country of birth
United States 79% 0% -5% -3% 0% 23% 46% 78% 22% 44% 76%
Other countries 81% 0% -5% -3% 0% 26% 53% 90% 25% 52% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -5% -4% 0% 21% 41% 74% 19% 40% 72%
Bachelor 87% 0% -5% -4% 0% 21% 42% 79% 19% 41% 76%
Associate 77% 0% -5% -3% 0% 24% 46% 74% 23% 45% 72%
High school 73% 0% -5% -3% 0% 28% 50% 87% 26% 49% 85%
Less than high school 75% 0% -5% -3% 0% 31% 56% 90% 29% 54% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2% 15% 31% 46% 14% 30% 44%
Second highest 86% 0% -5% -4% 0% 23% 38% 56% 22% 37% 53%
Middle 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 30% 45% 65% 28% 44% 62%
Second lowest 71% 0% -5% -3% 0% 40% 55% 82% 38% 53% 79%
Lowest 65% 0% -5% -3% 0% 56% 73% 124% 54% 71% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -5% -4% -3% 15% 33% 49% 14% 32% 46%
Second highest 86% 0% -5% -4% 0% 22% 37% 58% 21% 36% 56%
Middle 80% 0% -5% -3% 0% 30% 45% 67% 28% 44% 65%
Second lowest 70% 0% -5% -3% 0% 38% 54% 82% 37% 53% 79%
Lowest 64% 0% -5% -3% 0% 55% 71% 116% 53% 70% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 95% 0% -5% -4% -2% 16% 35% 51% 14% 33% 49%
Second highest 86% 0% -5% -4% 0% 22% 39% 62% 20% 37% 59%
Middle 79% 0% -5% -3% 0% 28% 45% 72% 26% 44% 69%
Second lowest 72% 0% -5% -3% 0% 35% 52% 85% 33% 51% 83%
Lowest 63% 0% -5% -3% 0% 50% 66% 102% 48% 64% 98%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 78% 0% -11% -9% 0% 24% 47% 83% 21% 44% 78%
Sex
Female 77% 0% -11% -9% 0% 28% 52% 90% 24% 49% 88%
Male 79% 0% -11% -9% 0% 22% 43% 72% 20% 40% 67%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 75% 0% -11% -9% 0% 27% 50% 89% 23% 47% 84%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -11% -9% 0% 23% 45% 80% 20% 42% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 66% 0% -11% -9% 0% 29% 53% 84% 26% 50% 79%
All other races, non-Hispanic 88% 0% -11% -9% 0% 24% 45% 85% 21% 41% 79%
Country of birth
United States 77% 0% -11% -9% 0% 24% 46% 80% 21% 43% 75%
Other countries 80% 0% -11% -9% 0% 27% 53% 90% 24% 49% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -11% -9% 0% 22% 42% 77% 19% 39% 70%
Bachelor 87% 0% -14% -9% 0% 21% 42% 81% 17% 39% 74%
Associate 75% 0% -11% -9% 0% 25% 46% 77% 22% 44% 72%
High school 71% 0% -11% -9% 0% 28% 51% 87% 24% 48% 83%
Less than high school 74% 0% -11% -9% 0% 31% 55% 90% 28% 52% 88%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -21% -10% -8% 16% 31% 46% 13% 29% 42%
Second highest 86% 0% -11% -9% 0% 24% 39% 57% 21% 36% 51%
Middle 78% 0% -11% -9% 0% 31% 45% 65% 27% 43% 59%
Second lowest 69% 0% -11% -9% 0% 40% 54% 81% 36% 52% 74%
Lowest 62% 0% -10% -8% 0% 57% 74% 125% 54% 70% 114%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -21% -10% -8% 15% 34% 48% 13% 31% 43%
Second highest 85% 0% -11% -9% 0% 24% 39% 59% 20% 36% 53%
Middle 77% 0% -11% -9% 0% 31% 45% 67% 27% 43% 61%
Second lowest 70% 0% -11% -9% 0% 39% 53% 81% 35% 51% 75%
Lowest 62% 0% -10% -8% 0% 56% 73% 118% 52% 69% 108%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 95% 0% -21% -10% -8% 16% 35% 51% 13% 32% 46%
Second highest 86% 0% -11% -9% 0% 23% 40% 63% 20% 37% 57%
Middle 79% 0% -11% -9% 0% 29% 45% 72% 26% 43% 66%
Second lowest 68% 0% -11% -9% 0% 35% 52% 86% 31% 50% 79%
Lowest 62% 0% -10% -8% 0% 50% 67% 104% 46% 64% 94%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 78% 0% -17% -14% 0% 23% 47% 84% 19% 42% 76%
Sex
Female 77% 0% -16% -14% 0% 28% 53% 90% 23% 47% 87%
Male 79% 0% -24% -14% 0% 22% 43% 72% 18% 38% 64%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 75% 0% -16% -14% 0% 26% 50% 88% 21% 45% 80%
White, non-Hispanic 79% 0% -24% -14% 0% 22% 45% 81% 18% 40% 73%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -16% -14% 0% 27% 52% 84% 22% 47% 77%
All other races, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -22% -15% 0% 22% 43% 83% 18% 38% 72%
Country of birth
United States 77% 0% -23% -14% 0% 23% 46% 80% 19% 42% 73%
Other countries 81% 0% -16% -14% 0% 26% 52% 90% 21% 46% 86%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -25% -14% 0% 21% 42% 79% 17% 37% 68%
Bachelor 87% 0% -25% -14% 0% 21% 42% 82% 16% 37% 72%
Associate 74% 0% -23% -14% 0% 23% 46% 76% 19% 42% 69%
High school 71% 0% -16% -14% 0% 27% 50% 89% 22% 46% 81%
Less than high school 74% 0% -16% -14% 0% 31% 56% 90% 26% 50% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 94% 0% -28% -15% -13% 15% 31% 46% 11% 27% 39%
Second highest 86% 0% -25% -15% 0% 23% 39% 56% 18% 34% 48%
Middle 78% 0% -16% -14% 0% 31% 45% 65% 25% 41% 55%
Second lowest 68% 0% -16% -14% 0% 40% 55% 82% 34% 51% 72%
Lowest 63% 0% -15% -14% 0% 57% 75% 133% 51% 69% 115%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -28% -15% -13% 15% 33% 47% 11% 29% 40%
Second highest 85% 0% -26% -15% 0% 22% 38% 58% 17% 34% 49%
Middle 77% 0% -16% -14% 0% 31% 45% 66% 25% 41% 57%
Second lowest 69% 0% -16% -14% 0% 38% 54% 84% 33% 51% 72%
Lowest 64% 0% -15% -14% 0% 56% 74% 124% 50% 68% 108%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -28% -15% -13% 16% 35% 50% 12% 30% 43%
Second highest 86% 0% -25% -14% 0% 22% 40% 62% 17% 35% 54%
Middle 79% 0% -24% -14% 0% 27% 45% 72% 21% 41% 63%
Second lowest 68% 0% -16% -14% 0% 35% 53% 85% 30% 49% 77%
Lowest 63% 0% -15% -14% 0% 51% 67% 108% 45% 62% 94%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2033.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision B2.1.