# Estimated Retirement Benefits in the Social Security Statement

by Glenn R. Springstead, David A. Weaver, and Jason J. Fichtner
Research and Statistics Note No. 2008-05 (released November 2008)

## Tables 1A–17A and Figure 1

Table 1A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA, by Statement age, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Statement age Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
25 234 174 218 -35 -16 9 21 28 46 55
30 6,332 259 281 -27 -9 15 32 48 61 69
35 8,375 366 371 -16 -4 25 47 59 67 74
40 9,621 495 504 -7 -2 33 53 65 73 79
45 10,452 625 636 -6 -1 41 62 75 83 88
50 11,033 741 758 -10 -1 50 72 84 91 94
55 11,423 870 895 -14 -2 57 78 88 93 95
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 2A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 25, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 234 174 218 -35 -16 9 21 28 46 55
Sex
Women 35 115 122 2 2 12 20 23 34 39
Men 199 176 234 -40 -17 8 21 29 48 58
AIME quintile
Lowest 41 125 105 30 32 11 19 21 26 30
Second 47 176 179 0 0 20 31 37 57 72
Third 50 176 218 -35 -17 12 22 42 70 76
Fourth 47 181 247 -65 -26 2 27 29 37 48
Highest 49 207 276 -68 -26 0 4 13 39 49
Women
All 35 115 122 2 2 12 20 23 34 39
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Men
All 199 176 234 -40 -17 8 21 29 48 58
AIME quintile
Lowest 19 127 98 32 38 11 15 15 15 20
Second 37 176 180 1 1 20 33 41 63 79
Third 47 176 218 -35 -17 13 23 45 72 79
Fourth 47 181 247 -65 -26 2 27 29 37 48
Highest 49 207 276 -68 -26 0 4 13 39 49
Zero earners
All b b b b b b b b b b
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 3A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 30, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 6,332 259 281 -27 -9 15 32 48 61 69
Sex
Women 1,890 190 214 -28 -12 11 23 34 44 52
Men 4,442 270 302 -27 -9 16 35 53 68 76
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,230 156 144 21 16 8 16 23 30 38
Second 1,245 223 223 1 0 14 28 39 49 58
Third 1,275 262 286 -13 -5 29 50 65 74 81
Fourth 1,278 273 326 -35 -11 16 45 67 78 83
Highest 1,304 326 392 -58 -16 5 19 46 75 88
Women
All 1,890 190 214 -28 -12 11 23 34 44 52
AIME quintile
Lowest 719 140 143 3 3 10 18 26 33 42
Second 555 190 224 -27 -12 14 27 40 48 55
Third 338 241 293 -48 -17 14 31 43 57 63
Fourth 181 267 357 -74 -21 9 21 32 46 57
Highest 97 316 397 -67 -17 4 20 40 60 70
Men
All 4,442 270 302 -27 -9 16 35 53 68 76
AIME quintile
Lowest 511 182 146 41 30 6 13 19 27 34
Second 690 247 222 19 9 14 28 38 50 60
Third 937 267 282 -6 -2 34 56 72 80 87
Fourth 1,097 273 324 -33 -10 18 49 72 83 87
Highest 1,207 327 390 -58 -15 5 19 47 76 89
Zero earners
All 166 72 153 -84 -53 8 13 15 17 22
Sex
Women 124 72 144 -79 -49 9 14 16 17 23
Men 42 71 221 -120 -64 6 11 13 16 19
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 4A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 35, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 8,375 366 371 -16 -4 25 47 59 67 74
Sex
Women 3,295 246 282 -28 -9 17 32 43 53 61
Men 5,080 407 416 -9 -2 30 56 69 77 82
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,635 176 184 -1 0 14 26 36 45 52
Second 1,665 275 285 -7 -2 15 29 40 49 58
Third 1,669 368 373 -2 -1 20 36 52 64 74
Fourth 1,687 425 452 -10 -2 50 71 79 85 89
Highest 1,719 482 535 -39 -8 27 72 90 94 95
Women
All 3,295 246 282 -28 -9 17 32 43 53 61
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,131 167 182 -5 -3 12 25 35 44 52
Second 984 245 284 -33 -12 17 30 40 50 58
Third 643 322 381 -51 -13 19 32 46 55 64
Fourth 365 407 471 -43 -10 29 50 62 72 78
Highest 172 476 551 -49 -9 22 54 70 80 86
Men
All 5,080 407 416 -9 -2 30 56 69 77 82
AIME quintile
Lowest 504 195 185 6 3 19 28 38 45 52
Second 681 318 286 30 10 13 27 39 49 57
Third 1,026 383 369 21 5 20 39 56 70 79
Fourth 1,322 429 447 -6 -1 56 77 84 89 92
Highest 1,547 483 532 -38 -8 28 74 92 95 96
Zero earners
All 620 119 195 -74 -39 16 21 26 31 36
Sex
Women 442 116 197 -78 -40 13 19 23 27 33
Men 178 122 190 -51 -32 23 28 35 41 44
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 5A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 40, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 9,621 495 504 -7 -2 33 53 65 73 79
Sex
Women 4,361 346 379 -24 -6 23 39 51 62 70
Men 5,260 601 597 1 0 41 63 75 82 86
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,894 224 246 -7 -3 23 35 46 56 64
Second 1,910 360 380 -15 -4 19 35 47 59 68
Third 1,917 497 512 -5 -1 21 39 53 67 77
Fourth 1,936 623 653 3 1 40 67 80 87 91
Highest 1,964 752 776 -11 -1 61 88 95 97 98
Women
All 4,361 346 379 -24 -6 23 39 51 62 70
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,449 220 245 -9 -4 21 32 43 54 61
Second 1,287 344 376 -29 -8 20 35 48 60 69
Third 912 462 512 -38 -7 22 39 52 66 76
Fourth 497 598 671 -42 -7 32 54 67 76 83
Highest 216 738 790 -35 -5 48 74 86 91 94
Men
All 5,260 601 597 1 0 41 63 75 82 86
AIME quintile
Lowest 445 232 247 -2 -1 32 43 55 65 72
Second 623 396 389 10 3 19 34 46 56 65
Third 1,006 524 511 23 5 21 39 55 67 77
Fourth 1,439 628 641 11 2 42 70 84 90 93
Highest 1,747 755 775 -8 -1 63 89 96 98 98
Zero earners
All 890 186 270 -66 -25 25 30 37 43 50
Sex
Women 574 166 258 -70 -29 21 26 33 39 44
Men 316 222 291 -52 -19 30 36 44 51 59
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 6A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 45, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 10,452 625 636 -6 -1 41 62 75 83 88
Sex
Women 5,090 453 478 -20 -4 30 49 65 76 82
Men 5,362 808 800 0 0 50 74 85 90 93
AIME quintile
Lowest 2,069 286 313 -9 -3 30 45 58 67 72
Second 2,086 448 471 -20 -4 27 49 65 78 86
Third 2,073 623 636 -9 -1 33 54 69 80 87
Fourth 2,092 815 817 4 1 48 73 87 93 97
Highest 2,132 958 974 0 0 65 91 98 99 99
Women
All 5,090 453 478 -20 -4 30 49 65 76 82
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,671 287 313 -13 -4 26 42 56 65 71
Second 1,499 441 467 -25 -5 24 46 63 77 85
Third 1,082 599 630 -24 -4 30 51 66 79 87
Fourth 588 793 825 -21 -3 43 63 82 89 95
Highest 250 949 983 -19 -2 54 84 95 97 99
Men
All 5,362 808 800 0 0 50 74 85 90 93
AIME quintile
Lowest 398 286 314 -2 -1 46 56 67 73 79
Second 587 457 477 -9 -2 34 56 68 80 86
Third 991 647 642 4 1 35 57 72 82 88
Fourth 1,504 821 816 10 1 50 76 89 95 98
Highest 1,882 958 973 1 0 66 92 98 99 99
Zero earners
All 960 264 325 -36 -11 40 48 56 63 70
Sex
Women 560 222 301 -45 -15 35 42 50 58 65
Men 400 318 366 -24 -7 46 55 64 71 77
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 7A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 50, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 11,033 741 758 -10 -1 50 72 84 91 94
Sex
Women 5,586 544 564 -16 -3 39 61 77 85 91
Men 5,447 979 987 -5 -1 60 83 92 95 97
AIME quintile
Lowest 2,191 339 369 -10 -3 40 55 67 75 81
Second 2,203 533 552 -15 -3 40 64 81 90 94
Third 2,180 738 758 -16 -2 42 69 84 92 96
Fourth 2,213 980 992 -5 0 58 80 91 97 99
Highest 2,246 1,167 1,179 -3 0 69 94 99 100 100
Women
All 5,586 544 564 -16 -3 39 61 77 85 91
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,803 342 368 -12 -3 36 53 65 73 81
Second 1,652 529 549 -18 -3 35 61 80 90 95
Third 1,210 722 751 -21 -3 38 63 81 91 96
Fourth 642 967 988 -11 -1 50 72 87 94 98
Highest 279 1,147 1,173 -14 -1 54 88 97 98 100
Men
All 5,447 979 987 -5 -1 60 83 92 95 97
AIME quintile
Lowest 388 335 376 -3 -1 54 64 73 81 85
Second 551 541 564 -9 -2 51 73 84 89 92
Third 970 752 769 -11 -1 48 76 88 93 96
Fourth 1,571 984 995 -2 0 60 83 93 97 99
Highest 1,967 1,169 1,179 -2 0 71 95 99 100 100
Zero earners
All 1,123 352 399 -13 -3 54 65 74 80 85
Sex
Women 649 286 348 -11 -4 53 63 71 77 82
Men 474 424 457 -15 -3 55 68 79 84 87
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 8A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 55, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 11,423 870 895 -14 -2 57 78 88 93 95
Sex
Women 5,895 637 663 -20 -3 45 68 81 89 93
Men 5,528 1,160 1,177 -9 -1 68 88 94 96 97
AIME quintile
Lowest 2,285 374 418 -13 -3 46 60 70 78 83
Second 2,260 618 641 -17 -3 48 74 88 94 97
Third 2,265 870 895 -17 -2 51 77 89 94 97
Fourth 2,289 1,159 1,181 -10 -1 66 84 93 97 99
Highest 2,324 1,410 1,444 -11 -1 72 95 99 100 100
Women
All 5,895 637 663 -20 -3 45 68 81 89 93
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,894 370 416 -17 -4 43 58 68 77 83
Second 1,711 615 639 -19 -3 45 72 88 95 98
Third 1,301 854 888 -26 -3 42 70 85 93 97
Fourth 694 1,146 1,181 -21 -2 50 73 87 94 98
Highest 295 1,405 1,461 -31 -2 55 86 95 98 100
Men
All 5,528 1,160 1,177 -9 -1 68 88 94 96 97
AIME quintile
Lowest 391 386 430 -1 0 57 68 76 80 82
Second 549 630 652 -12 -2 57 80 89 92 94
Third 964 894 905 -11 -1 62 86 93 96 98
Fourth 1,595 1,163 1,180 -8 -1 73 89 96 98 99
Highest 2,029 1,410 1,440 -10 -1 74 96 99 100 100
Zero earners
All 1,477 448 483 0 0 70 79 85 88 90
Sex
Women 913 391 421 0 0 68 77 83 87 90
Men 564 552 587 -1 0 73 83 87 90 91
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 9A. Statement PIA median percent difference from deflated retirement PIA in 1940–1946 cohorts, by birth cohort and Statement age
Birth Cohort Statement Age
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
1940 -21 -6 -2 2 1 1 0
1941 -24 -10 -5 0 0 0 0
1942 -10 -13 -4 1 0 0 -1
1943 -4 -10 -5 -1 0 -1 -2
1944 -14 -9 -5 -3 -2 -3 -3
1945 -12 -7 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4
1946 -18 -10 -4 -5 -4 -5 -5
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
Table 10A. Percent of workers in 1940–1946 cohorts whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIAs, by birth cohort and Statement age
Birth cohort Statement age
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Percent of cases within 5 percentage points
1940 0 20 27 34 42 56 71
1941 8 12 24 34 41 54 68
1942 11 10 25 35 43 56 64
1943 15 14 25 34 44 52 59
1944 12 14 23 32 43 47 53
1945 13 17 28 32 39 45 46
1946 6 15 26 31 35 41 42
Percent of cases within 10 percentage points
1940 6 38 49 50 61 77 88
1941 16 27 47 52 62 74 86
1942 27 23 47 52 64 78 84
1943 19 32 46 57 63 74 81
1944 31 32 45 51 64 72 76
1945 20 37 48 54 63 70 71
1946 24 32 47 51 60 65 66
Percent of cases within 15 percentage points
1940 8 56 59 60 72 88 94
1941 16 42 59 63 73 85 93
1942 34 40 59 63 75 87 92
1943 30 48 59 67 75 85 89
1944 44 48 59 65 77 84 87
1945 40 53 60 67 77 84 83
1946 27 49 60 65 76 80 81
Percent of cases within 20 percentage points
1940 35 66 67 69 81 91 96
1941 30 58 67 72 82 91 96
1942 43 58 67 72 83 92 95
1943 41 63 66 75 83 90 93
1944 62 62 68 74 85 91 92
1945 63 62 67 75 85 91 90
1946 49 60 69 74 84 89 88
Percent of cases within 25 percentage points
1940 50 72 75 75 87 94 98
1941 32 65 73 79 87 93 97
1942 48 72 73 78 88 95 97
1943 54 72 72 80 87 94 95
1944 74 71 73 80 89 94 94
1945 67 68 75 80 89 94 94
1946 64 67 75 80 90 93 93
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
Figure 1.
Individuals whose Statement PIA is within 5 percentage points of retirement PIA, by Statement age, 1940 and 1946 birth cohorts (percent)
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
PIA = primary insurance amount; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.

Table 11A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA for 1940 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 34 174 213 -43 -21 0 6 8 35 50
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 692 240 235 -13 -6 20 38 56 66 72
Sex
Women 191 159 163 -11 -7 13 27 39 48 54
Men 501 256 259 -14 -6 23 42 62 73 78
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 131 124 115 19 19 13 19 24 32 39
279 137 195 180 10 6 14 26 41 46 51
458 140 249 235 2 1 33 52 68 80 88
629 139 256 268 -17 -6 42 75 81 86 88
780 145 259 297 -42 -14 0 16 66 89 92
Statement age 35
All 938 303 298 -5 -2 27 49 59 67 75
Sex
Women 352 185 222 -23 -10 16 29 40 49 60
Men 586 362 350 -1 0 33 61 70 77 83
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 181 142 150 -1 -1 14 24 33 42 55
326 191 230 227 -1 0 16 27 37 47 56
562 183 307 297 14 4 16 31 47 61 74
789 186 364 357 2 1 53 79 86 89 91
1,017 197 379 399 -27 -7 35 84 93 95 96
Statement age 40
All 1,113 400 379 7 2 34 50 60 69 75
Sex
Women 509 267 282 -4 -1 23 37 48 59 66
Men 604 512 484 16 3 42 60 70 77 82
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 222 187 189 0 0 23 34 43 54 61
372 225 297 282 11 3 18 29 39 51 58
696 217 408 379 19 5 20 32 42 55 65
1,010 217 508 489 20 4 35 60 79 87 93
1,365 232 559 551 -1 0 72 95 97 98 98
Statement age 45
All 1,194 548 529 5 1 42 61 72 81 87
Sex
Women 583 381 394 -4 -1 33 48 62 73 80
Men 611 720 698 19 3 50 73 81 89 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 243 252 266 -2 -1 28 39 47 61 68
501 239 375 383 -9 -2 35 51 66 73 82
943 234 548 529 8 2 34 53 66 79 85
1,408 229 712 694 16 2 44 69 82 94 97
1,925 249 821 791 23 3 68 93 99 99 99
Statement age 50
All 1,277 661 653 5 1 56 77 88 91 94
Sex
Women 657 467 471 0 0 47 68 83 88 92
Men 620 902 883 12 1 64 86 92 95 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 260 323 331 0 0 39 55 68 74 82
590 254 455 466 -1 0 50 72 83 89 93
1,094 249 660 653 3 0 52 73 90 94 97
1,697 251 891 865 15 2 60 89 97 98 99
2,380 263 1,024 998 22 2 77 96 99 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,325 774 764 1 0 71 88 94 96 98
Sex
Women 694 553 553 0 0 61 82 92 95 97
Men 631 1,069 1,052 5 0 83 95 97 98 99
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 271 354 387 0 0 58 73 80 86 90
648 262 533 530 0 0 61 87 93 98 98
1,245 261 773 764 2 0 68 86 98 99 100
1,973 260 1,034 1,018 8 1 80 96 100 100 100
2,809 271 1,206 1,190 13 1 91 100 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 12A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA for 1941 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 42 155 191 -55 -24 8 16 16 30 32
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 754 245 251 -27 -10 12 27 42 58 65
Sex
Women 221 160 176 -22 -10 10 21 31 38 43
Men 533 260 279 -28 -10 12 29 47 67 74
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 139 152 127 32 32 3 7 14 18 28
298 156 196 191 -3 -2 12 23 31 42 45
498 154 252 251 -6 -2 34 56 70 78 82
682 151 260 287 -30 -10 10 47 69 75 82
861 154 269 319 -56 -17 0 0 27 78 89
Statement age 35
All 992 311 315 -14 -5 24 47 59 67 73
Sex
Women 394 197 221 -19 -8 16 32 43 51 59
Men 598 382 378 -13 -4 29 57 70 78 82
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 193 148 159 0 0 16 26 38 46 52
348 192 212 233 -11 -6 14 29 36 46 53
599 202 314 315 -9 -3 15 27 48 62 71
871 204 382 385 -6 -1 52 75 82 88 92
1,117 201 402 432 -36 -8 24 76 92 94 95
Statement age 40
All 1,164 420 419 0 0 34 52 63 72 79
Sex
Women 538 279 307 -11 -4 25 37 50 61 70
Men 626 559 539 6 1 43 65 75 82 86
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 227 204 210 -1 -1 29 38 51 61 70
446 221 291 306 -11 -4 19 31 42 56 64
746 240 430 418 15 3 17 35 47 60 71
1,131 238 551 539 12 2 37 65 80 88 93
1,547 238 613 610 -2 0 72 94 97 97 97
Statement age 45
All 1,292 558 558 0 0 41 62 73 82 87
Sex
Women 646 394 416 -4 -1 30 49 62 74 82
Men 646 768 755 8 1 51 74 85 90 92
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 255 275 282 0 0 37 47 57 65 72
561 248 392 408 -9 -2 30 53 65 76 83
954 265 542 558 -11 -2 23 42 60 75 84
1,475 260 759 747 16 2 42 70 87 94 97
2,110 264 867 852 16 2 72 96 99 99 100
Statement age 50
All 1,368 678 667 2 0 54 74 85 91 93
Sex
Women 713 507 500 0 0 42 64 79 86 90
Men 655 944 938 8 1 67 86 92 96 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 274 325 337 -1 0 48 61 71 78 82
663 262 488 490 -5 -1 38 61 80 87 92
1,119 279 674 666 6 1 42 67 82 91 94
1,751 277 927 920 13 1 65 85 96 99 100
2,561 276 1,073 1,056 20 2 78 97 99 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,411 768 767 0 0 68 86 93 96 97
Sex
Women 749 573 584 -3 -1 57 79 88 94 96
Men 662 1,108 1,106 0 0 80 94 98 98 99
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 287 346 382 -1 0 58 72 78 86 90
730 266 552 566 -11 -2 58 84 93 97 99
1,261 288 768 767 0 0 61 83 94 98 98
2,043 286 1,081 1,074 1 0 78 94 99 100 100
3,001 284 1,247 1,246 9 1 85 99 99 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 13A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA for 1942 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 35 165 238 -21 -10 11 27 34 43 48
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 938 253 269 -35 -13 10 23 40 58 72
Sex
Women 234 160 182 -29 -15 9 21 33 46 55
Men 704 264 293 -37 -13 10 24 42 62 77
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 174 138 131 15 12 9 17 29 39 44
303 190 204 202 10 6 11 25 36 48 57
523 185 256 269 -19 -7 30 56 67 75 83
737 190 270 307 -42 -13 0 19 67 82 85
919 199 272 336 -69 -20 0 0 0 46 88
Statement age 35
All 1,243 350 348 -16 -4 25 47 59 67 73
Sex
Women 423 227 244 -23 -9 18 30 41 51 58
Men 820 411 408 -13 -3 29 56 68 75 80
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 236 161 173 0 0 13 21 32 44 51
383 248 254 251 1 1 12 25 33 43 52
644 249 366 347 10 3 23 38 53 65 75
972 251 414 420 -10 -2 59 77 83 87 90
1,251 259 432 466 -39 -8 18 75 93 96 97
Statement age 40
All 1,454 468 457 2 1 35 52 63 72 78
Sex
Women 609 320 336 -8 -2 25 39 51 62 70
Men 845 605 588 11 2 43 62 72 79 84
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 280 218 233 0 0 22 35 46 55 61
475 289 339 338 1 0 19 32 41 52 62
826 292 464 457 8 2 20 37 50 65 76
1,244 291 608 599 11 2 43 64 82 91 93
1,769 302 677 669 1 0 71 94 97 97 98
Statement age 45
All 1,578 583 588 0 0 43 64 75 83 88
Sex
Women 719 402 431 -17 -4 30 51 63 74 80
Men 859 804 789 8 1 53 75 85 90 94
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 304 273 294 -5 -1 30 45 58 67 72
565 313 406 430 -21 -5 26 50 62 75 86
1,013 319 578 587 -10 -2 32 55 67 77 85
1,595 315 805 793 11 1 54 76 89 94 97
2,339 327 916 894 12 1 71 95 99 100 100
Statement age 50
All 1,677 698 706 -1 0 56 78 87 92 95
Sex
Women 803 500 520 -9 -1 45 67 79 86 92
Men 874 984 983 1 0 67 87 93 96 98
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 329 321 356 -5 -1 42 56 67 75 83
658 327 498 513 -8 -2 45 74 86 92 97
1,168 338 699 706 -10 -1 47 74 86 91 96
1,891 335 983 980 3 0 68 89 94 99 99
2,853 348 1,127 1,113 11 1 80 97 100 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,739 795 810 -7 -1 64 84 92 95 97
Sex
Women 861 571 592 -13 -2 51 75 87 92 95
Men 878 1,152 1,153 -3 0 78 93 97 98 99
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 345 335 383 -10 -3 48 64 76 84 87
721 338 569 586 -9 -2 55 81 94 97 99
1,317 351 795 810 -13 -2 56 82 91 95 98
2,146 346 1,137 1,145 -7 -1 78 94 98 99 100
3,309 359 1,315 1,304 2 0 85 100 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 14A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA for 1943 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 27 196 187 -9 -4 15 19 30 41 54
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 899 267 278 -28 -10 14 32 48 63 72
Sex
Women 250 180 199 -24 -12 11 22 36 45 55
Men 649 287 303 -28 -9 15 36 52 70 78
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 184 147 149 9 5 9 19 28 35 44
373 169 226 221 8 4 14 31 40 49 59
551 174 270 278 -8 -3 28 46 64 73 80
761 180 298 321 -28 -9 18 62 72 76 83
955 192 302 353 -59 -16 0 3 36 81 93
Statement age 35
All 1,213 356 360 -18 -5 25 46 59 66 72
Sex
Women 472 233 267 -34 -11 17 31 42 49 58
Men 741 437 432 -10 -3 30 56 70 76 81
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 245 177 190 -1 -1 14 25 35 44 53
448 240 273 284 -7 -2 18 31 41 48 57
703 233 349 360 -13 -4 15 32 47 57 65
985 240 441 445 -6 -1 54 72 78 83 88
1,310 255 464 498 -41 -8 23 73 95 97 99
Statement age 40
All 1,389 492 512 -8 -1 34 57 67 75 80
Sex
Women 626 351 385 -18 -4 26 45 55 65 71
Men 763 648 641 0 0 41 66 76 83 87
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 276 240 259 -5 -2 24 35 47 59 66
576 284 375 390 -14 -3 23 44 55 61 70
963 261 492 512 -15 -3 25 45 57 70 79
1,363 280 654 653 7 1 40 68 79 87 90
1,892 288 733 738 -11 -1 58 92 96 97 98
Statement age 45
All 1,502 615 620 -2 0 44 63 75 83 87
Sex
Women 731 437 460 -13 -3 32 50 65 75 80
Men 771 816 806 4 0 54 75 85 90 94
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 298 288 312 -17 -5 32 45 56 64 68
634 307 447 463 -9 -2 29 51 64 76 84
1,129 290 609 619 -5 -1 35 56 71 81 88
1,643 296 817 811 9 1 51 73 88 95 97
2,348 311 931 924 5 1 71 92 98 99 99
Statement age 50
All 1,594 731 755 -9 -1 52 74 85 90 94
Sex
Women 806 534 554 -13 -2 42 63 77 85 90
Men 788 986 1,013 -7 -1 62 85 93 96 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 320 351 373 -10 -3 37 53 63 73 79
712 321 532 552 -17 -3 42 65 80 88 93
1,311 309 730 755 -13 -2 45 72 88 93 97
1,953 316 984 1,010 -9 -1 60 82 94 98 100
2,906 328 1,157 1,160 2 0 74 98 100 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,657 850 870 -13 -2 59 81 89 93 95
Sex
Women 856 615 639 -17 -2 48 72 82 89 93
Men 801 1,171 1,200 -11 -1 70 90 95 97 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 335 353 427 -13 -4 46 58 68 76 82
775 330 607 631 -18 -3 48 74 86 93 95
1,470 326 854 870 -15 -2 56 85 92 97 98
2,243 326 1,155 1,175 -17 -1 66 88 97 99 100
3,400 340 1,366 1,372 0 0 79 99 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 15A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA for 1944 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 38 216 254 -32 -14 12 31 44 62 74
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 915 291 298 -27 -9 14 32 48 62 71
Sex
Women 255 196 224 -31 -12 12 23 35 43 52
Men 660 316 335 -27 -8 15 35 52 69 78
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 181 174 158 14 18 11 20 28 32 41
392 175 238 231 5 2 14 30 41 48 56
591 183 293 297 -10 -3 24 40 56 70 85
822 183 326 353 -29 -8 22 62 73 81 85
1,068 193 334 389 -63 -16 0 8 40 77 88
Statement age 35
All 1,207 388 388 -20 -5 23 45 59 68 73
Sex
Women 463 264 299 -29 -9 17 32 44 55 62
Men 744 460 455 -14 -3 26 52 68 76 80
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 240 187 200 0 0 13 25 34 44 47
490 239 298 303 -7 -3 15 27 36 48 58
745 234 383 388 6 2 18 32 54 66 76
1,066 242 467 475 -10 -2 51 77 85 91 92
1,425 252 489 530 -48 -9 16 62 86 92 93
Statement age 40
All 1,348 533 554 -15 -3 32 51 65 74 80
Sex
Women 575 379 425 -37 -8 20 38 52 65 72
Men 773 675 673 -4 -1 40 61 74 80 86
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 269 260 284 -16 -5 24 35 45 56 66
635 267 394 425 -30 -7 17 33 50 62 74
1,019 264 535 552 -15 -3 19 37 57 69 75
1,476 271 686 696 -7 -1 38 65 77 85 88
2,062 277 775 785 -12 -1 60 88 97 99 100
Statement age 45
All 1,478 656 667 -11 -2 43 64 77 85 89
Sex
Women 687 475 517 -27 -5 30 50 68 78 84
Men 791 852 851 -2 0 53 75 84 91 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 294 313 335 -13 -4 31 48 64 73 75
686 296 486 512 -21 -4 28 47 63 78 87
1,207 288 655 667 -7 -1 40 57 72 83 88
1,760 298 867 865 -1 0 51 76 88 93 97
2,568 302 984 991 -10 -1 64 92 97 98 98
Statement age 50
All 1,562 777 802 -21 -3 47 72 84 91 94
Sex
Women 759 583 619 -30 -5 35 59 75 84 90
Men 803 1,012 1,054 -14 -1 58 84 92 97 98
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 313 365 403 -23 -6 33 55 68 74 80
784 314 569 607 -25 -5 37 63 80 92 95
1,418 297 779 802 -20 -2 45 67 82 92 97
2,112 319 1,040 1,066 -19 -2 53 79 90 97 99
3,135 319 1,213 1,227 -13 -1 66 96 100 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,613 915 936 -23 -3 53 76 87 92 94
Sex
Women 796 662 716 -35 -5 38 62 77 86 91
Men 817 1,212 1,252 -15 -1 66 89 95 97 98
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 321 386 457 -25 -6 38 54 64 73 79
863 324 656 700 -26 -4 43 71 86 94 98
1,628 308 915 936 -23 -2 48 75 88 94 97
2,464 329 1,231 1,269 -22 -2 65 84 94 98 98
3,713 331 1,429 1,464 -23 -2 69 97 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 16A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA for 1945 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 29 181 211 -29 -12 13 20 40 63 67
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 913 302 329 -25 -7 17 37 53 62 68
Sex
Women 298 210 253 -37 -14 14 28 35 45 52
Men 615 346 359 -22 -6 19 42 61 70 76
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 174 162 161 19 15 9 16 20 29 36
428 178 251 254 -5 -2 15 31 39 48 54
654 188 302 329 -20 -6 20 43 58 72 80
891 186 352 374 -24 -6 35 63 72 77 83
1,118 187 369 414 -47 -11 7 34 75 85 89
Statement age 35
All 1,206 399 424 -16 -3 28 48 60 67 75
Sex
Women 508 291 333 -28 -8 20 37 46 54 63
Men 698 498 498 -9 -2 34 55 69 77 83
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 234 201 212 0 0 17 29 38 43 52
485 229 310 324 -13 -4 17 31 42 51 62
800 253 402 424 -16 -4 18 37 52 65 75
1,133 242 501 513 -13 -3 41 63 74 83 88
1,523 248 545 569 -27 -5 49 79 93 95 96
Statement age 40
All 1,358 544 573 -18 -4 32 54 67 75 80
Sex
Women 636 395 444 -32 -7 24 41 54 63 71
Men 722 712 717 -10 -2 39 65 78 85 88
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 265 255 279 -13 -5 24 39 51 58 65
627 259 398 433 -28 -6 22 38 53 65 74
1,067 282 551 573 -20 -4 23 44 60 70 76
1,570 273 715 726 -14 -2 38 61 75 86 90
2,145 279 799 818 -23 -3 53 89 95 95 97
Statement age 45
All 1,471 667 698 -20 -3 39 63 77 85 89
Sex
Women 734 501 539 -31 -6 30 51 69 80 85
Men 737 899 906 -11 -1 48 74 85 90 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 285 312 339 -18 -6 29 45 59 68 74
695 282 487 518 -35 -7 26 51 70 83 89
1,265 304 671 698 -17 -2 32 56 73 83 89
1,895 298 899 911 -13 -1 46 71 85 92 95
2,676 302 1,016 1,033 -18 -2 64 91 98 99 99
Statement age 50
All 1,545 772 808 -28 -4 45 70 84 91 94
Sex
Women 798 571 619 -32 -5 34 58 76 86 92
Men 747 1,039 1,082 -24 -3 57 81 92 95 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 305 330 392 -25 -7 36 51 67 74 83
742 297 553 587 -31 -5 35 60 82 91 94
1,411 314 773 808 -33 -4 38 66 82 94 96
2,189 312 1,047 1,082 -25 -2 52 76 89 95 99
3,134 317 1,210 1,233 -23 -2 65 93 100 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,608 933 986 -40 -4 46 71 83 90 94
Sex
Women 841 699 743 -43 -6 37 59 76 86 92
Men 767 1,265 1,333 -37 -3 56 83 91 94 96
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 313 364 466 -37 -9 36 49 61 70 78
865 311 666 707 -39 -6 37 64 85 93 96
1,670 327 940 986 -45 -5 39 70 84 92 96
2,623 328 1,266 1,333 -40 -3 55 76 88 94 98
3,858 329 1,481 1,536 -42 -3 64 95 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 17A. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA for 1946 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 29 217 282 -30 -18 6 24 27 49 64
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 1,221 310 351 -35 -10 15 32 49 60 67
Sex
Women 441 233 268 -40 -14 10 21 33 44 53
Men 780 357 385 -34 -8 18 38 58 67 74
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 241 195 185 22 12 8 17 24 33 42
451 248 253 272 -22 -7 14 26 38 50 56
700 245 312 351 -30 -9 20 39 53 63 73
966 235 369 400 -38 -9 32 53 66 72 78
1,229 252 390 445 -57 -13 2 28 66 81 87
Statement age 35
All 1,576 449 472 -20 -4 26 47 60 69 75
Sex
Women 683 307 371 -39 -11 16 33 44 57 63
Men 893 542 550 -10 -2 32 58 71 78 83
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 313 219 241 -7 -4 15 29 41 52 59
564 315 339 359 -16 -4 17 33 44 52 59
912 314 455 472 -15 -3 20 39 52 66 74
1,289 309 549 564 -20 -4 35 60 74 81 86
1,712 325 600 632 -40 -6 42 76 90 94 97
Statement age 40
All 1,795 591 626 -30 -5 31 51 65 74 80
Sex
Women 868 417 485 -51 -11 20 37 49 63 71
Men 927 752 770 -14 -2 40 63 78 84 88
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 357 275 316 -26 -10 23 37 50 61 67
702 362 425 469 -44 -10 17 30 44 58 70
1,171 361 598 626 -30 -5 23 45 58 70 78
1,714 349 756 779 -25 -3 39 61 74 83 88
2,333 366 858 881 -28 -3 52 83 97 99 99
Statement age 45
All 1,937 710 754 -30 -4 35 60 76 84 90
Sex
Women 990 523 575 -44 -7 25 47 65 76 85
Men 947 934 958 -18 -2 46 73 86 92 94
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 387 346 379 -22 -6 26 45 61 71 77
793 392 522 561 -42 -8 24 45 65 77 83
1,370 389 703 753 -42 -5 29 52 72 81 92
2,054 376 936 962 -31 -3 48 70 82 93 97
2,853 393 1,071 1,093 -19 -2 51 89 99 99 100
Statement age 50
All 2,010 813 875 -39 -5 41 65 80 89 93
Sex
Women 1,050 607 663 -46 -7 31 54 71 84 90
Men 960 1,080 1,126 -34 -3 50 77 89 94 96
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 402 402 431 -27 -6 35 54 67 76 81
896 407 595 644 -44 -7 34 54 73 85 92
1,570 402 818 875 -49 -6 32 59 76 89 95
2,381 392 1,090 1,132 -42 -4 48 70 87 95 97
3,345 407 1,263 1,289 -31 -2 54 90 98 99 100
Statement age 55
All 2,070 1,021 1,092 -50 -5 42 66 81 88 93
Sex
Women 1,098 755 831 -60 -7 31 54 71 83 90
Men 972 1,379 1,438 -42 -3 53 79 90 94 96
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 416 473 526 -37 -7 36 53 64 72 78
1,062 415 739 798 -53 -7 33 56 74 85 92
1,927 413 1,020 1,091 -69 -6 37 62 79 91 96
2,977 406 1,385 1,441 -55 -4 47 72 86 94 98
4,260 420 1,604 1,649 -40 -2 58 89 99 99 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The AIME quintile thresholds are likewise adjusted for the purposes of comparison. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.