Mortality Differentials by Lifetime Earnings Decile: Implications for Evaluations of Proposed Social Security Law Changes

by Hilary Waldron
Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 73 No. 1, 2013
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Death rates for fully insured males born in 1940, by age and male lifetime earnings decile
Decile Age 63 Age 65 Age 67 Age 69 Age 71
1 0.022 0.026 0.020 0.024 0.028
2 0.011 0.013 0.017 0.020 0.024
3 0.011 0.013 0.016 0.019 0.022
4 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.014 0.016
5 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.016
6 0.008 0.009 0.012 0.014 0.016
7 0.007 0.008 0.011 0.013 0.016
8 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.011 0.013
9 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.011
10 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.008
SOURCES: Social Security administrative data files (1 percent 2008 active CWHS, 1 percent 2009 MEF, 1 percent 2010 MBR, and 1 percent 2009 Numident). Author's calculations based on regressions estimating mortality risk by decile at ages 63–66 and ages 67–71 (see the Appendix, Table A-1).
NOTE: Sample consists of men who were fully insured for retired-worker benefits by age 61; disabled-worker beneficiaries are excluded.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Death rates by age, sex, and lifetime earnings deciles
Decile Men, by male earnings decile Women, by male earnings decile Women, by female earnings decile
  At age 63
1 0.022 0.008 0.009
2 0.011 0.005 0.006
3 0.011 0.004 0.005
4 0.010 0.004 0.005
5 0.009 0.005 0.004
6 0.008 0.004 0.004
7 0.007 0.003 0.004
8 0.007 0.003 0.004
9 0.006 0.003 0.004
10 0.005 0.003 0.003
  At age 65
1 0.026 0.011 0.012
2 0.013 0.007 0.009
3 0.013 0.006 0.007
4 0.011 0.006 0.007
5 0.010 0.007 0.006
6 0.009 0.005 0.006
7 0.008 0.004 0.005
8 0.008 0.004 0.005
9 0.007 0.004 0.006
10 0.005 0.004 0.004
  At age 67
1 0.020 0.011 0.013
2 0.017 0.009 0.009
3 0.016 0.007 0.009
4 0.011 0.007 0.008
5 0.011 0.007 0.008
6 0.012 0.007 0.007
7 0.011 0.007 0.007
8 0.009 0.007 0.007
9 0.008 0.007 0.007
10 0.005 0.007 0.007
  At age 71
1 0.028 0.016 0.019
2 0.024 0.012 0.014
3 0.022 0.011 0.014
4 0.016 0.011 0.011
5 0.016 0.010 0.012
6 0.016 0.009 0.010
7 0.016 0.010 0.011
8 0.013 0.010 0.010
9 0.011 0.010 0.010
10 0.008 0.010 0.010
SOURCES: Author's calculations based on Social Security administrative data files (1 percent 2008 active CWHS, 1 percent 2009 MEF, 1 percent 2010 MBR, and 1 percent 2009 Numident).
Table equivalent for Chart A-1. Death rates for fully insured men born in 1940, by age and male lifetime earnings decile: Restricted analytical sample
Decile Age 63 Age 65 Age 67 Age 69 Age 71
No earnings from ages 45–55 0.023 0.028 0.027 0.033 0.039
1 0.020 0.024 0.021 0.025 0.030
2 0.013 0.015 0.019 0.023 0.028
3 0.011 0.013 0.016 0.019 0.022
4 0.010 0.012 0.013 0.015 0.018
5 0.008 0.010 0.012 0.015 0.018
6 0.007 0.009 0.012 0.014 0.017
7 0.006 0.007 0.010 0.012 0.015
8 0.007 0.008 0.010 0.012 0.015
9 0.005 0.006 0.008 0.009 0.011
10 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008
SOURCES: Social Security administrative data files (1 percent 2008 active CWHS, 1 percent 2009 MEF, 1 percent 2010 MBR, and 1 percent 2009 Numident). Author's calculations based on regressions estimating mortality risk by decile at ages 63–66 and ages 67–71 (see the Appendix, Table A-3).
NOTE: Sample consists of men who were fully insured for retired-worker benefits by age 61; disabled-worker beneficiaries, the foreign born, and workers with mostly non–OASDI taxable earnings are excluded.