Income Growth and Future Poverty Rates of the Aged

by Seyda G. Wentworth and David Pattison
ORES Working Paper No. 94 (released August 2002)
Table equivalent for Chart 1. Poverty rates of the elderly (percent)
Year Actual Beneficiaries
adjusted		 Beneficiaries
and weight
adjusted		 Simple
1959 35.2 36.82718 32.91162 18.43069
1961 34.71954 30.95922 17.31318
1963 32.44372 29.21087 15.84304
1965 28.97679 26.297 15.0527
1967 29.5 27.56683 25.40786 13.20945
1969 25.3 24.79398 23.18558 12.47973
1971 21.6 19.99547 18.63203 12.48098
1973 16.3 15.72241 14.61081 10.87626
1975 15.3 15.02608 13.95148 12.49944
1977 14.2 13.9389 13.36085 12.33129
1979 15.2 13.85361 13.48948 12.84296
1981 15.3 12.95989 12.64936 14.25682
1983 13.8 12.02769 12.00216 13.80189
1985 12.6 11.78153 11.8894 12.81729
1987 12.5 11.43772 11.50341 11.8608
1989 11.4 11.29576 11.31 11.85532
1991 12.4 11.13522 11.15865 12.06914
1993 12.2 10.98544 10.98042 12.03267
1995 10.5 10.79377 10.77528 11.60559
1997 10.5 10.57695 10.57695 10.57695
SOURCE: CPS March 1998 data file and U.S. Census Bureau Poverty Tables. Actual data for 1960–1966 are missing.
Table equivalent for Chart 2. Past and future poverty rates of the elderly (percent)
Year Actual Projected
1959 35.2
1961
1963
1965
1967 29.5
1969 25.3
1971 21.6
1973 16.3
1975 15.3
1977 14.2
1979 15.2
1981 15.3
1983 13.8
1985 12.6
1987 12.5
1989 11.4
1991 12.4
1993 12.2
1995 10.5
1997 10.5 10.57695
2002 9.91373
2007 8.93461
2012 8.4237
2017 7.6785
2022 6.87397
2027 5.92959
2032 5.49193
2037 5.01025
2042 4.59302
2047 4.12996
SOURCE: CPS March 1998 data file and U.S. Census Bureau Poverty Tables. Actual data for 1960–1966 are missing.
Table equivalent for Chart 3. Projected poverty rates of the elderly, under three growth assumptions (percent)
Year Actual 0.5 percent
growth		 1 percent
growth		 1.5 percent
growth
1959 35.2
1961
1963
1965
1967 29.5
1969 25.3
1971 21.6
1973 16.3
1975 15.3
1977 14.2
1979 15.2
1981 15.3
1983 13.8
1985 12.6
1987 12.5
1989 11.4
1991 12.4
1993 12.2
1995 10.5
1997 10.5 10.57695 10.57695 10.57695
2002 9.9967 9.91373 9.78783
2007 9.30001 8.93461 8.69127
2012 8.93218 8.4237 7.84464
2017 8.48062 7.6785 6.67841
2022 8.20978 6.87397 5.4662
2027 7.87449 5.92959 4.70077
2032 7.85859 5.49193 4.18483
2037 7.75547 5.01025 3.64724
2042 7.50143 4.59302 3.1607
2047 7.08813 4.12996 2.83013
SOURCE: CPS March 1998 data file and U.S. Census Bureau Poverty Tables. Actual data for 1960–1966 are missing.
Table equivalent for Chart 4. Poverty rates of the elderly in 1997 as components of income are reduced (percent)
Percentage reduction
in component		 socsec earn pens asset SSI
0 10.57695 10.57695 10.57695 10.57695 10.57695
10 12.69407 10.68657 10.64434 10.63838 10.82863
20 15.5395 10.82063 10.76862 10.75365 11.05202
30 18.92236 11.00394 10.84265 10.89931 11.22378
40 24.28803 11.28132 11.0127 10.92788 11.29091
50 29.61959 11.69365 11.25299 11.05082 11.38345
60 33.91567 12.25746 11.61392 11.1497 11.47109
70 37.60995 13.17563 12.12675 11.30204 11.5414
80 40.75233 14.42669 12.78831 11.53455 11.59586
90 44.08949 16.56099 13.51258 11.96089 11.64115
100 47.13145 19.20053 14.34666 12.60282 11.70395
SOURCE: CPS March 1998 data file.
NOTE: "socsec" refers to Social Security benefits; "earn" refers to earnings; "pens" refers to public and private pensions, including survivor's income; "asset" refers to dividends, interest, and rent; "SSI" refers to Supplemental Security Income.
Table equivalent for Chart 5. Projected poverty rates of the elderly with wage-adjusted and price-adjusted SSI (percent)
Year Actual Price-
adjusted
SSI		 Wage-
adjusted
SSI
1959 35.2
1961
1963
1965
1967 29.5
1969 25.3
1971 21.6
1973 16.3
1975 15.3
1977 14.2
1979 15.2
1981 15.3
1983 13.8
1985 12.6
1987 12.5
1989 11.4
1991 12.4
1993 12.2
1995 10.5
1997 10.5 10.57695 10.57695
2002 9.95393 9.91373
2007 9.11379 8.93461
2012 8.68462 8.4237
2017 8.03805 7.6785
2022 7.46248 6.87397
2027 6.70006 5.92959
2032 6.32861 5.49193
2037 5.88607 5.01025
2042 5.36383 4.59302
2047 4.84394 4.12996
SOURCE: CPS March 1998 data file and U.S. Census Bureau Poverty Tables. Actual data for 1960–1966 are missing.
Table equivalent for Chart 6. Nonmarried men aged 30–39, by earnings quartile (percent)
Year earn. Q1 earn. Q2 earn. Q3 earn. Q4
1967 21.76355 13.54406 7.68459 5.23408
1968 22.56508 13.91955 7.90982 5.1899
1969 23.47517 13.09668 7.7895 5.12474
1970 24.14769 14.83448 9.0592 7.15876
1971 25.74083 17.98544 10.38136 7.13482
1972 25.30419 17.42893 10.45226 6.96457
1973 27.92585 20.58068 12.30562 8.12516
1974 26.08833 18.18664 13.39589 6.84543
1975 25.69197 17.04892 13.08112 9.31654
1976 28.23611 17.29045 11.7087 8.97187
1977 32.66201 20.94166 13.59741 9.48199
1978 31.35206 21.95147 15.15146 11.63478
1979 33.71707 23.11611 16.45298 11.09922
1980 33.52983 23.43521 17.68177 12.68994
1981 35.65021 24.35789 18.34362 15.18485
1982 35.36798 25.59474 18.66033 14.28592
1983 36.6513 26.27895 20.70186 16.00019
1984 37.62819 24.87629 20.18884 16.4497
1985 38.38501 29.74916 21.11072 15.41695
1986 42.37976 27.707 21.37938 16.40308
1987 45.02723 30.84514 22.84133 16.7793
1988 43.80518 32.70735 23.67262 17.91415
1989 43.51515 32.51814 25.08662 19.32466
1990 46.46946 33.9928 24.72297 18.01298
1991 45.74852 34.82848 25.47255 18.2047
1992 49.77567 35.19619 25.63395 17.6887
1993 47.11206 34.97894 27.4774 17.0995
1994 48.97341 35.01505 25.91898 18.59317
1995 49.75311 35.70291 25.45818 21.71536
1996 49.3875 36.53991 26.89211 18.05721
1997 50.55265 35.78352 26.20786 19.45979
SOURCE: CPS March 1998 data file.
NOTE: Nonmarried men include those who are divorced or never married. "Earn. Q1–Q4" refer to earnings quartiles (from lowest to highest).
Table equivalent for Chart 7. Earnings inequality for men aged 22–61 (percent)
Year p95/med p90/med p75/med p25/med p10/med p5/med
1967 223.8806 179.1045 134.3284 68.10448 37.31343 21
1968 224.9086 182.7383 140.5679 70.28395 40.35704 21.08518
1969 229.8851 186.4623 135.3768 66.41124 38.31418 21.71137
1970 240.7685 188.3733 137.2255 67.36527 37.42515 19.81038
1971 235.2941 188.2353 140 65.29412 35.29412 18.82353
1972 238.0952 192.6407 138.5281 64.93506 32.56494 17.31602
1973 240 190 140 66.2 36.27 19.75
1974 238.0952 190.4762 142.8571 66.66667 33.33333 18.57143
1975 236.149 192.5522 143.4151 63.57856 31.78928 18.1653
1976 239.5833 194.7917 141.6667 63.33333 31.66667 16.275
1977 238.4615 192.3077 142.1154 61.53846 31.39231 16.34615
1978 245.0466 189.0359 140.0266 63.01197 32.20612 16.80319
1979 251.9894 198.939 145.8886 65.17242 33.1565 18.56764
1980 246.9136 197.5309 148.1481 61.72839 30.8642 16.04938
1981 251.4286 200 142.8571 57.71428 28.57143 14.02286
1982 266.6667 205.5556 146.7778 55.55556 25 11.47222
1983 270.2703 216.2162 151.3514 56.21622 25.2973 10.81081
1984 255 205 150 55.005 25 12.11
1985 272.156 217.7248 153.397 59.37948 27.53724 14.25108
1986 279.1182 216.4065 151.3861 56.7698 27.72259 13.53014
1987 272.7273 218.1818 154.5455 56.81818 27.27273 13.63636
1988 275.4237 211.8644 148.3051 57.20339 27.54237 14.83051
1989 285.7143 212.2449 151.0204 57.95918 28.57143 14.69388
1990 280 212 149.708 56 28 15.6
1991 288 220 156 56 25.872 13.9
1992 300 230.44 160 56 26 12.48
1993 313.3733 239.521 159.6806 59.88024 26.11577 12.37525
1994 308.9689 231.2139 156.6288 55.93884 27.96942 14.91702
1995 305.7554 233.813 154.6763 56.11511 28.77698 14.38849
1996 303.4483 229.6552 155.1724 55.94483 29.31035 15.86207
1997 320 233.3333 156.6667 60 30.77333 16.66667
SOURCE: CPS March 1998 data file.
NOTE: "p5–p95" refer to the 5th –95th percentiles in total earnings; "med" is median earnings.