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Projections—Policy Options
Benefit Formula Changes
Credit earnings to caregivers' records: Up to 5 years at one-half average wage when caring for children under age six: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Price index the PIA formula: Reduce the formula factors by the difference in growth rates of wages and prices: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Price index the PIA formula: Protect the bottom 30% of workers from price indexing: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Reconfigure the minimum benefit: For workers with 10 to 30 years of coverage (YOC = 4 quarters earned that year) set PIA up to 125% of the monthly poverty level: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Reduce the 90%, 32%, and 15% PIA factors: To 90%, 21%, and 10% over a 31-year period: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Reduce the 90%, 32%, and 15% PIA factors: To 69.2%, 24.6%, and 11.5% over a 28-year period: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Reduce initial benefits: By 5%: 2030 |  2050 |  2070
Cost of Living Adjustment Changes
Covered Worker Changes
Retirement Age Increases
Taxation Changes
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Benefit Formula Changes

Credit earnings to caregivers' records: Up to 5 years at one-half average wage when caring for children under age six

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Compare all options »

Table 1. Individual benefits 2030: Child Credits Five Years Half AWI versus Scheduled
Characteristic Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 1% 22%
Sex
Female 0% 1% 27%
Male 0% 0% 16%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 0% 1% 42%
White 0% 1% 18%
Black 0% 0% 28%
Other 0% 1% 36%
Immigration
Immigrant 0% 1% 47%
Native Born 0% 1% 18%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 31%
70–79 0% 1% 23%
80–89 0% 0% 7%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 0% 0% 16%
Married 0% 1% 28%
Divorced 0% 0% 22%
Widowed 0% 0% 10%
Education
Graduate 0% 1% 16%
Bachelor 0% 1% 18%
Associate 0% 1% 21%
High School 0% 1% 24%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 1% 44%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0% 1% 11%
$51,630 - $92,568 0% 1% 14%
$32,444 - $51,630 0% 1% 19%
$19,359 - $32,444 0% 1% 23%
$0-$19,359 0% 1% 45%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0% 1% 15%
$88,261 - $156,005 0% 1% 18%
$53,741 - $88,261 0% 1% 20%
$29,648 - $53,741 0% 1% 25%
$0-$29,648 0% 0% 33%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0% 1% 8%
$63,084 - $85,700 0% 1% 11%
$46,412 - $63,084 0% 1% 15%
$29,733 - $46,412 0% 1% 27%
$0-$29,733 0% 1% 50%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 0% 0% 25%
Spousal & Worker 0% 13% 27%
Spousal Only 0% 3% 39%
Survivor & Worker 0% 0% 5%
Survivor Only 0% 0% 12%
Retired Disabled 0% 0% 17%
Disabled Worker 0% 0% 34%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 0% 1% 24%
63–66 0% 0% 19%
67 or older 0% 0% 28%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0% 0% 3%
161–200 0% 0% 11%
81–160 0% 1% 37%
0–80 0% 2% 35%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0% 0% 1%
$4,819 - $7,147 0% 0% 6%
$3,235 - $4,819 0% 0% 20%
$1,780 - $3,235 0% 1% 43%
$0-$1,780 0% 3% 40%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0% 2% 3%
$6,129 - $8,406 0% 1% 4%
$4,412 - $6,129 0% 1% 11%
$2,836 - $4,412 0% 0% 30%
$0-$2,836 4% 0% 63%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0% 2% 11%
$2,211 - $3,023 0% 1% 20%
$1,683 - $2,211 0% 0% 18%
$1,193 - $1,683 0% 0% 20%
$0-$1,193 0% 0% 42%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0% 1% 15%
$81,240 - $116,762 0% 1% 20%
$52,849 - $81,240 0% 1% 20%
$1 - $52,849 0% 1% 26%
$0.00 0% 0% 28%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 04/05/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 2. Distribution of changes 2030: Child Credits Five Years Half AWI versus Scheduled
Characteristic % of Population With % Change of
-20%+ -10 to -19% -1 to -9% No change +1 to +9% +10 to +19% +20%+
Total 0% 0% 1% 77% 17% 3% 2%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 1% 71% 21% 3% 3%
Male 0% 0% 0% 83% 13% 2% 2%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 0% 0% 1% 57% 29% 7% 6%
White 0% 0% 1% 82% 14% 2% 2%
Black 0% 0% 0% 72% 21% 4% 3%
Other 0% 0% 1% 63% 25% 5% 5%
Immigration
Immigrant 0% 0% 1% 52% 32% 8% 7%
Native Born 0% 0% 1% 81% 15% 2% 2%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 69% 24% 4% 3%
70–79 0% 0% 1% 75% 18% 3% 2%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 92% 5% 1% 1%
90+ 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 0% 0% 0% 84% 11% 2% 2%
Married 0% 0% 1% 71% 22% 3% 3%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 78% 17% 2% 2%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 90% 7% 1% 2%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 1% 84% 12% 2% 2%
Bachelor 0% 0% 1% 81% 14% 2% 2%
Associate 0% 0% 1% 78% 17% 2% 2%
High School 0% 0% 1% 76% 18% 3% 2%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 1% 55% 30% 8% 7%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0% 0% 1% 89% 8% 1% 1%
$51,630 - $92,568 0% 0% 1% 86% 11% 2% 1%
$32,444 - $51,630 0% 0% 1% 80% 16% 2% 1%
$19,359 - $32,444 0% 0% 1% 76% 21% 2% 1%
$0-$19,359 0% 0% 1% 54% 30% 7% 7%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0% 0% 1% 83% 12% 2% 1%
$88,261 - $156,005 0% 0% 1% 81% 15% 2% 1%
$53,741 - $88,261 0% 0% 1% 79% 17% 2% 2%
$29,648 - $53,741 0% 0% 0% 75% 21% 3% 1%
$0-$29,648 0% 0% 0% 67% 22% 5% 6%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0% 0% 1% 91% 6% 1% 1%
$63,084 - $85,700 0% 0% 1% 88% 9% 1% 1%
$46,412 - $63,084 0% 0% 1% 84% 14% 1% 1%
$29,733 - $46,412 0% 0% 1% 72% 25% 1% 1%
$0-$29,733 0% 0% 0% 50% 32% 9% 8%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 0% 0% 0% 75% 20% 3% 3%
Spousal & Worker 0% 0% 13% 61% 21% 3% 3%
Spousal Only 0% 0% 2% 58% 20% 6% 13%
Survivor & Worker 0% 0% 0% 95% 4% 0% 0%
Survivor Only 0% 0% 0% 88% 7% 1% 4%
Retired Disabled 0% 0% 0% 83% 14% 3% 1%
Disabled Worker 0% 0% 0% 66% 25% 6% 3%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 0% 0% 1% 75% 19% 3% 2%
63–66 0% 0% 0% 80% 15% 2% 2%
67 or older 0% 0% 0% 72% 17% 5% 6%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0% 0% 0% 97% 2% 0% 0%
161–200 0% 0% 0% 89% 11% 0% 0%
81–160 0% 0% 1% 62% 31% 4% 2%
0–80 0% 0% 2% 62% 15% 8% 13%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0% 0% 0% 99% 1% 0% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 0% 0% 0% 94% 6% 0% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 0% 0% 0% 80% 19% 0% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 0% 0% 1% 56% 41% 2% 1%
$0-$1,780 0% 0% 3% 57% 19% 11% 11%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0% 0% 2% 95% 3% 0% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 0% 0% 1% 95% 4% 0% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 0% 0% 1% 88% 10% 1% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 0% 0% 0% 70% 28% 1% 1%
$0-$2,836 0% 0% 0% 37% 41% 12% 11%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0% 0% 2% 87% 11% 0% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 0% 0% 1% 79% 19% 1% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 0% 0% 0% 82% 15% 2% 1%
$1,193 - $1,683 0% 0% 0% 80% 16% 3% 2%
$0-$1,193 0% 0% 0% 57% 26% 7% 9%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0% 0% 1% 84% 11% 2% 1%
$81,240 - $116,762 0% 0% 1% 79% 16% 2% 2%
$52,849 - $81,240 0% 0% 1% 79% 16% 2% 2%
$1 - $52,849 0% 0% 1% 73% 20% 3% 3%
$0.00 0% 0% 0% 72% 21% 4% 3%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 04/05/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 3. Poverty 2030: Child Credits Five Years Half AWI versus Scheduled
Characteristic Poverty Rate # of Poor Change
Scheduled Option Diff
Total 3.1% 2.8% -0.4% -265,527
Sex
Female 3.6% 3.1% -0.4% -166,047
Male 2.7% 2.4% -0.3% -99,479
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 5.8% 4.5% -1.3% -95,662
White 1.9% 1.7% -0.2% -94,114
Black 8.2% 7.5% -0.7% -51,191
Other 4.7% 4.1% -0.6% -24,558
Immigration
Immigrant 5.4% 3.9% -1.5% -169,748
Native Born 2.7% 2.6% -0.2% -95,778
Age
60–69 4.2% 3.8% -0.5% -118,990
70–79 2.9% 2.6% -0.3% -105,255
80–89 1.9% 1.6% -0.3% -41,281
90+ 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Never Married 11.6% 11.2% -0.4% -20,299
Married 1.3% 1.0% -0.3% -126,998
Divorced 5.4% 4.9% -0.5% -61,426
Widowed 3.2% 2.8% -0.4% -56,803
Education
Graduate 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% -3,150
Bachelor 1.1% 0.8% -0.2% -33,293
Associate 2.5% 2.1% -0.3% -54,916
High School 4.3% 3.9% -0.4% -105,113
Less than 12 Yrs 9.8% 8.2% -1.6% -69,052
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$51,630 - $92,568 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$32,444 - $51,630 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$19,359 - $32,444 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$19,359 15.8% 13.9% -1.9% -265,527
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$88,261 - $156,005 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$53,741 - $88,261 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$29,648 - $53,741 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$29,648 15.8% 14.0% -1.9% -265,527
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$63,084 - $85,700 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$46,412 - $63,084 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -1,087
$29,733 - $46,412 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% -3,930
$0-$29,733 15.3% 13.5% -1.8% -260,508
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 2.6% 2.3% -0.3% -145,189
Spousal & Worker 1.3% 1.0% -0.3% -10,955
Spousal Only 7.3% 4.8% -2.5% -29,500
Survivor & Worker 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -8,029
Survivor Only 9.0% 7.4% -1.5% -20,793
Retired Disabled 6.0% 5.6% -0.4% -25,301
Disabled Worker 7.0% 6.4% -0.6% -25,756
Claiming Age
62 or younger 4.7% 4.3% -0.4% -151,017
63–66 1.4% 1.1% -0.3% -94,159
67 or older 1.7% 1.2% -0.5% -20,350
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
161–200 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0
81–160 3.0% 2.6% -0.4% -97,281
0–80 14.0% 12.3% -1.7% -168,245
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$4,819 - $7,147 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$3,235 - $4,819 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,780 - $3,235 2.8% 2.6% -0.3% -36,440
$0-$1,780 12.9% 11.3% -1.6% -229,087
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$6,129 - $8,406 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -1,732
$4,412 - $6,129 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1,160
$2,836 - $4,412 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0
$0-$2,836 15.1% 13.2% -1.8% -264,955
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,211 - $3,023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,683 - $2,211 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,193 - $1,683 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$1,193 15.7% 13.9% -1.9% -265,527
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$81,240 - $116,762 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$52,849 - $81,240 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -5,563
$1 - $52,849 1.5% 1.2% -0.3% -40,009
$0.00 9.7% 8.6% -1.1% -219,954
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 04/05/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 4. Median Monthly Scheduled Benefit, 2030
Characteristic Wage-Adjusted (2012 $) Inflation-Adjusted (2012 $) Nominal
(2030 $)
Total $1,103 $1,420 $2,241
Sex
Female $993 $1,278 $2,017
Male $1,232 $1,585 $2,502
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic $882 $1,136 $1,793
White $1,166 $1,501 $2,368
Black $963 $1,239 $1,956
Other $981 $1,262 $1,992
Immigration
Immigrant $879 $1,132 $1,786
Native Born $1,141 $1,469 $2,318
Age
60–69 $1,007 $1,296 $2,046
70–79 $1,138 $1,464 $2,311
80–89 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
90+ $1,139 $1,466 $2,313
Marital Status
Never Married $970 $1,248 $1,970
Married $1,065 $1,370 $2,163
Divorced $1,098 $1,414 $2,231
Widowed $1,224 $1,575 $2,486
Education
Graduate $1,444 $1,858 $2,932
Bachelor $1,286 $1,656 $2,613
Associate $1,100 $1,416 $2,234
High School $1,013 $1,304 $2,058
Less than 12 Yrs $791 $1,018 $1,607
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ $1,477 $1,902 $3,001
$51,630 - $92,568 $1,322 $1,701 $2,685
$32,444 - $51,630 $1,176 $1,514 $2,389
$19,359 - $32,444 $1,064 $1,370 $2,162
$0-$19,359 $695 $894 $1,411
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ $1,383 $1,780 $2,809
$88,261 - $156,005 $1,259 $1,621 $2,558
$53,741 - $88,261 $1,172 $1,508 $2,380
$29,648 - $53,741 $1,060 $1,364 $2,152
$0-$29,648 $808 $1,040 $1,641
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ $1,598 $2,057 $3,246
$63,084 - $85,700 $1,332 $1,714 $2,705
$46,412 - $63,084 $1,145 $1,474 $2,327
$29,733 - $46,412 $952 $1,226 $1,934
$0-$29,733 $664 $855 $1,349
Benefit Type
Retired Worker $1,133 $1,459 $2,302
Spousal & Worker $710 $914 $1,442
Spousal Only $498 $641 $1,012
Survivor & Worker $1,277 $1,643 $2,593
Survivor Only $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Retired Disabled $1,093 $1,406 $2,219
Disabled Worker $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Claiming Age
62 or younger $969 $1,247 $1,968
63–66 $1,268 $1,632 $2,576
67 or older $1,419 $1,827 $2,883
Quarters of Coverage
201+ $1,512 $1,946 $3,070
161–200 $1,241 $1,597 $2,520
81–160 $925 $1,191 $1,879
0–80 $651 $838 $1,322
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$4,819 - $7,147 $1,320 $1,700 $2,682
$3,235 - $4,819 $1,026 $1,320 $2,084
$1,780 - $3,235 $803 $1,033 $1,630
$0-$1,780 $615 $792 $1,249
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$6,129 - $8,406 $1,392 $1,792 $2,828
$4,412 - $6,129 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
$2,836 - $4,412 $916 $1,179 $1,861
$0-$2,836 $608 $783 $1,236
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ $1,456 $1,874 $2,958
$2,211 - $3,023 $1,223 $1,574 $2,484
$1,683 - $2,211 $1,398 $1,799 $2,839
$1,193 - $1,683 $1,083 $1,394 $2,199
$0-$1,193 $668 $860 $1,357
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ $1,400 $1,802 $2,844
$81,240 - $116,762 $1,246 $1,604 $2,531
$52,849 - $81,240 $1,174 $1,511 $2,384
$1 - $52,849 $1,004 $1,292 $2,039
$0.00 $926 $1,192 $1,881
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 04/05/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.