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Benefit Formula Changes

Increase the computation period from 35 years to 40 years

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

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Table 1. Individual benefits 2030: Increase Comp Yrs to 40 versus Scheduled
Characteristic Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total -1% 55% 0%
Sex
Female -1% 52% 0%
Male -1% 58% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic -2% 61% 0%
White -1% 54% 0%
Black -1% 54% 0%
Other -3% 63% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant -3% 64% 0%
Native Born -1% 53% 0%
Age
60–69 -3% 71% 0%
70–79 -2% 67% 0%
80–89 0% 7% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married -2% 62% 0%
Married -2% 67% 0%
Divorced -1% 53% 0%
Widowed 0% 23% 0%
Education
Graduate -1% 55% 0%
Bachelor -1% 61% 0%
Associate -1% 57% 0%
High School -1% 51% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs -1% 55% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ -1% 52% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 -1% 58% 0%
$32,444 - $51,630 -1% 56% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 -1% 54% 0%
$0-$19,359 -1% 55% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ -1% 58% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 -1% 60% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 -1% 57% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 -1% 53% 0%
$0-$29,648 0% 46% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ -1% 56% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 -1% 57% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 -1% 56% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 -1% 55% 0%
$0-$29,733 -1% 51% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker -3% 76% 0%
Spousal & Worker -1% 60% 0%
Spousal Only -2% 63% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 16% 0%
Survivor Only 0% 14% 0%
Retired Disabled 0% 9% 0%
Disabled Worker 0% 5% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 0% 49% 0%
63–66 -1% 63% 0%
67 or older -1% 56% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ -1% 59% 0%
161–200 -2% 62% 0%
81–160 -1% 52% 0%
0–80 0% 41% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ -1% 54% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 -1% 59% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 -2% 58% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 -1% 55% 0%
$0-$1,780 0% 49% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0% 47% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 0% 46% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 -2% 58% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 -2% 61% 0%
$0-$2,836 -3% 62% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ -1% 64% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 -1% 60% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 -1% 50% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 0% 46% 0%
$0-$1,193 -2% 55% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ -1% 63% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 -2% 62% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 -1% 56% 0%
$1 - $52,849 -1% 55% 0%
$0.00 0% 46% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 2. Distribution of changes 2030: Increase Comp Yrs to 40 versus Scheduled
Characteristic % of Population With % Change of
-20%+ -10 to -19% -1 to -9% No change +1 to +9% +10 to +19% +20%+
Total 0% 2% 52% 45% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 3% 49% 47% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 2% 56% 42% 0% 0% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 0% 5% 55% 39% 0% 0% 0%
White 0% 2% 52% 46% 0% 0% 0%
Black 0% 3% 50% 46% 0% 0% 0%
Other 1% 5% 57% 37% 0% 0% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant 1% 5% 58% 36% 0% 0% 0%
Native Born 0% 2% 51% 47% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 1% 4% 66% 28% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 2% 65% 33% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 0% 5% 57% 38% 0% 0% 0%
Married 1% 3% 64% 33% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 2% 51% 47% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 1% 22% 77% 0% 0% 0%
Education
Graduate 0% 2% 53% 45% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 2% 58% 39% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 2% 54% 43% 0% 0% 0%
High School 0% 2% 49% 49% 0% 0% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 5% 49% 45% 0% 0% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 1% 1% 50% 48% 0% 0% 0%
$51,630 - $92,568 1% 2% 55% 42% 0% 0% 0%
$32,444 - $51,630 0% 1% 55% 44% 0% 0% 0%
$19,359 - $32,444 0% 1% 53% 46% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$19,359 0% 6% 49% 45% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 1% 2% 55% 42% 0% 0% 0%
$88,261 - $156,005 1% 2% 58% 39% 0% 0% 0%
$53,741 - $88,261 1% 1% 55% 43% 0% 0% 0%
$29,648 - $53,741 0% 1% 52% 46% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$29,648 0% 5% 41% 54% 0% 0% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0% 1% 54% 44% 0% 0% 0%
$63,084 - $85,700 1% 1% 55% 43% 0% 0% 0%
$46,412 - $63,084 0% 1% 55% 44% 0% 0% 0%
$29,733 - $46,412 0% 1% 54% 45% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$29,733 0% 7% 44% 48% 0% 0% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 1% 3% 72% 24% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal & Worker 0% 1% 59% 39% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal Only 1% 5% 58% 37% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 0% 16% 84% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor Only 0% 2% 12% 86% 0% 0% 0%
Retired Disabled 0% 0% 9% 91% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled Worker 0% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 0% 2% 46% 51% 0% 0% 0%
63–66 1% 2% 60% 37% 0% 0% 0%
67 or older 0% 3% 53% 44% 0% 0% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 1% 0% 58% 40% 0% 0% 0%
161–200 1% 0% 61% 38% 0% 0% 0%
81–160 0% 2% 49% 48% 0% 0% 0%
0–80 0% 9% 32% 59% 0% 0% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0% 0% 54% 46% 0% 0% 0%
$4,819 - $7,147 1% 0% 58% 41% 0% 0% 0%
$3,235 - $4,819 0% 1% 57% 42% 0% 0% 0%
$1,780 - $3,235 0% 1% 53% 45% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$1,780 0% 9% 39% 51% 0% 0% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0% 0% 47% 53% 0% 0% 0%
$6,129 - $8,406 0% 0% 46% 54% 0% 0% 0%
$4,412 - $6,129 0% 1% 57% 42% 0% 0% 0%
$2,836 - $4,412 1% 1% 60% 39% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$2,836 0% 10% 52% 37% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0% 0% 63% 36% 0% 0% 0%
$2,211 - $3,023 0% 1% 59% 40% 0% 0% 0%
$1,683 - $2,211 0% 1% 49% 49% 0% 0% 0%
$1,193 - $1,683 0% 2% 44% 54% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$1,193 1% 8% 46% 45% 0% 0% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 1% 2% 61% 37% 0% 0% 0%
$81,240 - $116,762 0% 2% 60% 38% 0% 0% 0%
$52,849 - $81,240 1% 2% 53% 44% 0% 0% 0%
$1 - $52,849 0% 3% 51% 45% 0% 0% 0%
$0.00 0% 3% 43% 54% 0% 0% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 3. Poverty 2030: Increase Comp Yrs to 40 versus Scheduled
Characteristic Poverty Rate # of Poor Change
Scheduled Option Diff
Total 3.1% 3.4% 0.2% 149,227
Sex
Female 3.6% 3.8% 0.2% 80,317
Male 2.7% 2.9% 0.2% 68,909
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 5.8% 6.3% 0.5% 35,338
White 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 62,693
Black 8.2% 8.5% 0.3% 26,088
Other 4.7% 5.3% 0.6% 25,106
Immigration
Immigrant 5.4% 5.9% 0.5% 52,794
Native Born 2.7% 2.9% 0.2% 96,432
Age
60–69 4.2% 4.5% 0.3% 70,239
70–79 2.9% 3.2% 0.2% 71,986
80–89 1.9% 2.0% 0.0% 7,000
90+ 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Never Married 11.6% 12.2% 0.6% 28,448
Married 1.3% 1.5% 0.2% 58,509
Divorced 5.4% 5.7% 0.4% 47,175
Widowed 3.2% 3.3% 0.1% 15,094
Education
Graduate 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0
Bachelor 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 17,128
Associate 2.5% 2.6% 0.1% 26,193
High School 4.3% 4.5% 0.3% 74,986
Less than 12 Yrs 9.8% 10.5% 0.7% 30,918
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$51,630 - $92,568 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$32,444 - $51,630 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$19,359 - $32,444 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$19,359 15.8% 16.8% 1.0% 149,227
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$88,261 - $156,005 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$53,741 - $88,261 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$29,648 - $53,741 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$29,648 15.8% 16.9% 1.0% 149,227
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$63,084 - $85,700 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$46,412 - $63,084 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$29,733 - $46,412 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 13,677
$0-$29,733 15.3% 16.2% 0.9% 135,549
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 2.6% 2.9% 0.3% 128,854
Spousal & Worker 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% 3,755
Spousal Only 7.3% 7.7% 0.5% 5,307
Survivor & Worker 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% 11,309
Survivor Only 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0
Retired Disabled 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0
Disabled Worker 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0
Claiming Age
62 or younger 4.7% 5.0% 0.3% 109,872
63–66 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% 30,675
67 or older 1.7% 1.9% 0.2% 8,679
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 950
161–200 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 7,001
81–160 3.0% 3.4% 0.4% 102,259
0–80 14.0% 14.4% 0.4% 39,015
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$4,819 - $7,147 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$3,235 - $4,819 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,780 - $3,235 2.8% 3.3% 0.4% 61,216
$0-$1,780 12.9% 13.5% 0.6% 88,010
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$6,129 - $8,406 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$4,412 - $6,129 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1,160
$2,836 - $4,412 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 5,387
$0-$2,836 15.1% 16.1% 1.0% 142,678
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,211 - $3,023 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,683 - $2,211 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,193 - $1,683 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 8,772
$0-$1,193 15.7% 16.7% 1.0% 140,454
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$81,240 - $116,762 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 4,619
$52,849 - $81,240 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0
$1 - $52,849 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 11,074
$0.00 9.7% 10.3% 0.6% 133,533
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 4. Median Monthly Scheduled Benefit, 2030
Characteristic Wage-Adjusted (2012 $) Inflation-Adjusted (2012 $) Nominal
(2030 $)
Total $1,103 $1,420 $2,241
Sex
Female $993 $1,278 $2,017
Male $1,232 $1,585 $2,502
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic $882 $1,136 $1,793
White $1,166 $1,501 $2,368
Black $963 $1,239 $1,956
Other $981 $1,262 $1,992
Immigration
Immigrant $879 $1,132 $1,786
Native Born $1,141 $1,469 $2,318
Age
60–69 $1,007 $1,296 $2,046
70–79 $1,138 $1,464 $2,311
80–89 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
90+ $1,139 $1,466 $2,313
Marital Status
Never Married $970 $1,248 $1,970
Married $1,065 $1,370 $2,163
Divorced $1,098 $1,414 $2,231
Widowed $1,224 $1,575 $2,486
Education
Graduate $1,444 $1,858 $2,932
Bachelor $1,286 $1,656 $2,613
Associate $1,100 $1,416 $2,234
High School $1,013 $1,304 $2,058
Less than 12 Yrs $791 $1,018 $1,607
Indiv. Income Quintile
$92,568+ $1,477 $1,902 $3,001
$51,630 - $92,568 $1,322 $1,701 $2,685
$32,444 - $51,630 $1,176 $1,514 $2,389
$19,359 - $32,444 $1,064 $1,370 $2,162
$0-$19,359 $695 $894 $1,411
Hhld. Income Quintile
$156,005+ $1,383 $1,780 $2,809
$88,261 - $156,005 $1,259 $1,621 $2,558
$53,741 - $88,261 $1,172 $1,508 $2,380
$29,648 - $53,741 $1,060 $1,364 $2,152
$0-$29,648 $808 $1,040 $1,641
Shared Earn. Quintile
$85,700+ $1,598 $2,057 $3,246
$63,084 - $85,700 $1,332 $1,714 $2,705
$46,412 - $63,084 $1,145 $1,474 $2,327
$29,733 - $46,412 $952 $1,226 $1,934
$0-$29,733 $664 $855 $1,349
Benefit Type
Retired Worker $1,133 $1,459 $2,302
Spousal & Worker $710 $914 $1,442
Spousal Only $498 $641 $1,012
Survivor & Worker $1,277 $1,643 $2,593
Survivor Only $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Retired Disabled $1,093 $1,406 $2,219
Disabled Worker $1,031 $1,327 $2,094
Claiming Age
62 or younger $969 $1,247 $1,968
63–66 $1,268 $1,632 $2,576
67 or older $1,419 $1,827 $2,883
Quarters of Coverage
201+ $1,512 $1,946 $3,070
161–200 $1,241 $1,597 $2,520
81–160 $925 $1,191 $1,879
0–80 $651 $838 $1,322
Own AIME Quintile
$7,147+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$4,819 - $7,147 $1,320 $1,700 $2,682
$3,235 - $4,819 $1,026 $1,320 $2,084
$1,780 - $3,235 $803 $1,033 $1,630
$0-$1,780 $615 $792 $1,249
Paying AIME Quintile
$8,406+ $1,658 $2,134 $3,368
$6,129 - $8,406 $1,392 $1,792 $2,828
$4,412 - $6,129 $1,179 $1,518 $2,395
$2,836 - $4,412 $916 $1,179 $1,861
$0-$2,836 $608 $783 $1,236
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,023+ $1,456 $1,874 $2,958
$2,211 - $3,023 $1,223 $1,574 $2,484
$1,683 - $2,211 $1,398 $1,799 $2,839
$1,193 - $1,683 $1,083 $1,394 $2,199
$0-$1,193 $668 $860 $1,357
Adj. Gross Income
$116,762+ $1,400 $1,802 $2,844
$81,240 - $116,762 $1,246 $1,604 $2,531
$52,849 - $81,240 $1,174 $1,511 $2,384
$1 - $52,849 $1,004 $1,292 $2,039
$0.00 $926 $1,192 $1,881
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/09/2012
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.