Benefit Formula Changes

Index PIA factors to longevity: Multiply factors by the ratio of life expectancy at 67 in 2016 to the life expectancy at age 67 in the 4th year prior to the year of initial benefit eligibility

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2050

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Table 1. Individual benefits 2050: Longevity Indexing versus Scheduled
Characteristic Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total -4% 79% 0%
Sex
Female -4% 76% 0%
Male -4% 82% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic -4% 81% 0%
White -4% 79% 0%
Black -4% 73% 0%
Other -4% 82% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant -4% 82% 0%
Native Born -4% 78% 0%
Age
60–69 -7% 80% 0%
70–79 -4% 91% 0%
80–89 -2% 79% 0%
90+ 0% 4% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married -4% 78% 0%
Married -5% 88% 0%
Divorced -4% 80% 0%
Widowed -1% 56% 0%
Education
Graduate -4% 82% 0%
Bachelor -4% 83% 0%
Associate -4% 78% 0%
High School -4% 76% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs -5% 80% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$118,077+ -3% 78% 0%
$63,076 - $118,077 -4% 82% 0%
$38,685 - $63,076 -4% 80% 0%
$23,078 - $38,685 -4% 77% 0%
$0-$23,078 -4% 76% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$191,900+ -4% 82% 0%
$102,458 - $191,900 -4% 83% 0%
$60,945 - $102,458 -4% 81% 0%
$33,624 - $60,945 -4% 77% 0%
$0-$33,624 -3% 71% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$106,162+ -4% 84% 0%
$74,636 - $106,162 -4% 81% 0%
$52,919 - $74,636 -4% 81% 0%
$32,782 - $52,919 -4% 79% 0%
$0-$32,782 -4% 69% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker -5% 93% 0%
Spousal & Worker -5% 94% 0%
Spousal Only -4% 90% 0%
Survivor & Worker -1% 58% 0%
Survivor Only -2% 65% 0%
Retired Disabled 0% 42% 0%
Disabled Worker 0% 5% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger -4% 70% 0%
63–66 -4% 87% 0%
67 or older -4% 86% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ -4% 87% 0%
161–200 -4% 85% 0%
81–160 -4% 74% 0%
0–80 -3% 64% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$8,955+ -4% 85% 0%
$5,945 - $8,955 -4% 81% 0%
$4,095 - $5,945 -4% 79% 0%
$2,356 - $4,095 -4% 75% 0%
$0-$2,356 -4% 74% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$10,370+ -3% 80% 0%
$7,219 - $10,370 -4% 78% 0%
$5,128 - $7,219 -4% 81% 0%
$3,307 - $5,128 -4% 80% 0%
$0-$3,307 -4% 75% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,486+ -5% 92% 0%
$2,564 - $3,486 -4% 84% 0%
$1,975 - $2,564 -3% 74% 0%
$1,382 - $1,975 -3% 71% 0%
$0-$1,382 -4% 73% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$146,400+ -5% 88% 0%
$99,794 - $146,400 -4% 83% 0%
$66,090 - $99,794 -4% 80% 0%
$1 - $66,090 -4% 77% 0%
$0.00 -3% 72% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 5. Individual benefits 2050: Longevity Indexing versus Payable
Characteristic Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 22% 1% 99%
Sex
Female 22% 1% 99%
Male 21% 1% 99%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 21% 1% 99%
White 22% 1% 99%
Black 22% 0% 100%
Other 21% 1% 99%
Immigration
Immigrant 21% 1% 99%
Native Born 22% 1% 99%
Age
60–69 18% 2% 98%
70–79 21% 0% 100%
80–89 25% 0% 100%
90+ 27% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Never Married 21% 1% 99%
Married 21% 1% 99%
Divorced 22% 1% 99%
Widowed 25% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 22% 1% 99%
Bachelor 22% 1% 99%
Associate 22% 1% 99%
High School 22% 1% 99%
Less than 12 Yrs 21% 1% 99%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$118,077+ 22% 1% 99%
$63,076 - $118,077 21% 1% 98%
$38,685 - $63,076 21% 1% 99%
$23,078 - $38,685 22% 0% 100%
$0-$23,078 22% 0% 100%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$191,900+ 22% 1% 99%
$102,458 - $191,900 21% 1% 99%
$60,945 - $102,458 21% 1% 99%
$33,624 - $60,945 22% 0% 100%
$0-$33,624 22% 0% 100%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$106,162+ 22% 1% 99%
$74,636 - $106,162 22% 1% 99%
$52,919 - $74,636 22% 1% 99%
$32,782 - $52,919 21% 1% 99%
$0-$32,782 22% 1% 99%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 20% 1% 99%
Spousal & Worker 21% 0% 100%
Spousal Only 21% 1% 99%
Survivor & Worker 25% 0% 100%
Survivor Only 24% 1% 99%
Retired Disabled 27% 0% 100%
Disabled Worker 27% 0% 100%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 22% 1% 99%
63–66 21% 1% 99%
67 or older 22% 0% 100%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 22% 2% 98%
161–200 21% 1% 99%
81–160 22% 1% 99%
0–80 23% 0% 100%
Own AIME Quintile
$8,955+ 22% 1% 99%
$5,945 - $8,955 22% 1% 99%
$4,095 - $5,945 22% 1% 99%
$2,356 - $4,095 22% 1% 99%
$0-$2,356 22% 1% 99%
Paying AIME Quintile
$10,370+ 22% 1% 99%
$7,219 - $10,370 22% 1% 99%
$5,128 - $7,219 22% 1% 99%
$3,307 - $5,128 21% 1% 99%
$0-$3,307 21% 1% 99%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,486+ 21% 0% 100%
$2,564 - $3,486 21% 0% 100%
$1,975 - $2,564 23% 0% 100%
$1,382 - $1,975 23% 1% 99%
$0-$1,382 22% 3% 97%
Adj. Gross Income
$146,400+ 21% 1% 98%
$99,794 - $146,400 21% 1% 99%
$66,090 - $99,794 22% 1% 99%
$1 - $66,090 22% 1% 99%
$0.00 23% 0% 100%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 2. Distribution of changes 2050: Longevity Indexing versus Scheduled
Characteristic % of Population With % Change of
-20%+ -10 to -19% -1 to -9% No change +1 to +9% +10 to +19% +20%+
Total 1% 0% 77% 21% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 75% 24% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 80% 18% 0% 0% 0%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 1% 1% 80% 19% 0% 0% 0%
White 1% 0% 77% 21% 0% 0% 0%
Black 1% 0% 72% 27% 0% 0% 0%
Other 1% 0% 80% 18% 0% 0% 0%
Immigration
Immigrant 1% 0% 81% 17% 0% 0% 0%
Native Born 1% 0% 76% 22% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 3% 1% 76% 20% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 91% 9% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 79% 21% 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 4% 96% 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Never Married 1% 0% 77% 22% 0% 0% 0%
Married 1% 1% 86% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 79% 20% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 56% 44% 0% 0% 0%
Education
Graduate 1% 0% 80% 18% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 1% 81% 17% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 0% 77% 22% 0% 0% 0%
High School 1% 0% 74% 24% 0% 0% 0%
Less than 12 Yrs 1% 0% 79% 20% 0% 0% 0%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$118,077+ 2% 1% 76% 21% 0% 0% 0%
$63,076 - $118,077 2% 1% 80% 18% 0% 0% 0%
$38,685 - $63,076 1% 0% 79% 20% 0% 0% 0%
$23,078 - $38,685 0% 0% 77% 23% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$23,078 0% 0% 76% 24% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$191,900+ 1% 1% 80% 18% 0% 0% 0%
$102,458 - $191,900 2% 0% 81% 17% 0% 0% 0%
$60,945 - $102,458 1% 1% 79% 19% 0% 0% 0%
$33,624 - $60,945 0% 0% 76% 23% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$33,624 0% 0% 71% 29% 0% 0% 0%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$106,162+ 1% 1% 82% 16% 0% 0% 0%
$74,636 - $106,162 1% 0% 80% 19% 0% 0% 0%
$52,919 - $74,636 1% 0% 80% 19% 0% 0% 0%
$32,782 - $52,919 1% 0% 78% 21% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$32,782 1% 0% 68% 31% 0% 0% 0%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 1% 0% 91% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal & Worker 0% 1% 93% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal Only 2% 1% 87% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor & Worker 0% 0% 58% 42% 0% 0% 0%
Survivor Only 1% 1% 63% 35% 0% 0% 0%
Retired Disabled 0% 0% 42% 58% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled Worker 0% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 1% 0% 69% 30% 0% 0% 0%
63–66 1% 1% 86% 13% 0% 0% 0%
67 or older 0% 0% 86% 14% 0% 0% 0%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 2% 1% 85% 13% 0% 0% 0%
161–200 1% 0% 84% 15% 0% 0% 0%
81–160 1% 0% 73% 26% 0% 0% 0%
0–80 0% 0% 63% 36% 0% 0% 0%
Own AIME Quintile
$8,955+ 1% 1% 83% 15% 0% 0% 0%
$5,945 - $8,955 1% 0% 79% 19% 0% 0% 0%
$4,095 - $5,945 1% 0% 78% 21% 0% 0% 0%
$2,356 - $4,095 1% 0% 74% 25% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$2,356 1% 0% 73% 26% 0% 0% 0%
Paying AIME Quintile
$10,370+ 1% 0% 78% 20% 0% 0% 0%
$7,219 - $10,370 1% 0% 77% 22% 0% 0% 0%
$5,128 - $7,219 1% 0% 80% 19% 0% 0% 0%
$3,307 - $5,128 1% 0% 78% 20% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$3,307 1% 0% 74% 25% 0% 0% 0%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,486+ 0% 0% 91% 8% 0% 0% 0%
$2,564 - $3,486 0% 0% 83% 16% 0% 0% 0%
$1,975 - $2,564 0% 0% 74% 26% 0% 0% 0%
$1,382 - $1,975 1% 0% 70% 29% 0% 0% 0%
$0-$1,382 3% 1% 69% 27% 0% 0% 0%
Adj. Gross Income
$146,400+ 2% 1% 86% 12% 0% 0% 0%
$99,794 - $146,400 1% 0% 81% 17% 0% 0% 0%
$66,090 - $99,794 1% 0% 79% 20% 0% 0% 0%
$1 - $66,090 1% 1% 76% 23% 0% 0% 0%
$0.00 0% 0% 71% 28% 0% 0% 0%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 6. Distribution of changes 2050: Longevity Indexing versus Payable
Characteristic % of Population With % Change of
-20%+ -10 to -19% -1 to -9% No change +1 to +9% +10 to +19% +20%+
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 71%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 73%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 69%
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 30% 68%
White 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 72%
Black 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 73%
Other 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 71%
Immigration
Immigrant 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 72%
Native Born 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 71%
Age
60–69 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 71% 25%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 88%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
90+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Never Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 32% 66%
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 35% 63%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 71%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 95%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 73%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 71%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 72%
High School 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 72%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 35% 63%
Indiv. Income Quintile
$118,077+ 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 23% 75%
$63,076 - $118,077 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 30% 68%
$38,685 - $63,076 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 68%
$23,078 - $38,685 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 73%
$0-$23,078 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 73%
Hhld. Income Quintile
$191,900+ 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 28% 70%
$102,458 - $191,900 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 31% 67%
$60,945 - $102,458 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 69%
$33,624 - $60,945 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 74%
$0-$33,624 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 77%
Shared Earn. Quintile
$106,162+ 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 26% 73%
$74,636 - $106,162 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 72%
$52,919 - $74,636 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 71%
$32,782 - $52,919 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 70%
$0-$32,782 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 72%
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 36% 62%
Spousal & Worker 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 67%
Spousal Only 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 24% 73%
Survivor & Worker 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 90%
Survivor Only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 90%
Retired Disabled 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 92%
Disabled Worker 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 98%
Claiming Age
62 or younger 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 71%
63–66 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 28% 70%
67 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 85%
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 25% 72%
161–200 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 30% 68%
81–160 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 71%
0–80 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 79%
Own AIME Quintile
$8,955+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 26% 72%
$5,945 - $8,955 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 71%
$4,095 - $5,945 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 72%
$2,356 - $4,095 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 71%
$0-$2,356 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 71%
Paying AIME Quintile
$10,370+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 77%
$7,219 - $10,370 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 75%
$5,128 - $7,219 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 71%
$3,307 - $5,128 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 70%
$0-$3,307 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 34% 65%
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,486+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 69%
$2,564 - $3,486 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 70%
$1,975 - $2,564 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 75%
$1,382 - $1,975 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 75%
$0-$1,382 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 30% 67%
Adj. Gross Income
$146,400+ 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 31% 67%
$99,794 - $146,400 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 30% 68%
$66,090 - $99,794 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 70%
$1 - $66,090 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 29% 70%
$0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 77%
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 3. Poverty 2050: Longevity Indexing versus Scheduled
Characteristic Poverty Rate # of Poor Change
Scheduled Option Diff
Total 1.9% 2.1% 0.2% 127,063
Sex
Female 2.4% 2.6% 0.2% 76,482
Male 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% 50,581
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 3.0% 3.2% 0.3% 37,001
White 1.2% 1.4% 0.1% 67,394
Black 3.9% 4.1% 0.1% 12,955
Other 2.2% 2.3% 0.1% 9,711
Immigration
Immigrant 2.9% 3.1% 0.2% 38,515
Native Born 1.6% 1.7% 0.1% 88,548
Age
60–69 2.4% 2.7% 0.3% 65,811
70–79 2.0% 2.2% 0.2% 55,701
80–89 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 2,400
90+ 0.9% 1.0% 0.1% 3,151
Marital Status
Never Married 5.3% 5.9% 0.6% 51,997
Married 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 33,245
Divorced 2.8% 3.0% 0.2% 29,875
Widowed 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 11,945
Education
Graduate 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 2,617
Bachelor 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 8,191
Associate 1.3% 1.4% 0.1% 25,993
High School 2.6% 2.8% 0.2% 57,289
Less than 12 Yrs 6.3% 6.8% 0.5% 32,971
Indiv. Income Quintile
$118,077+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$63,076 - $118,077 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$38,685 - $63,076 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$23,078 - $38,685 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$23,078 9.6% 10.3% 0.8% 127,063
Hhld. Income Quintile
$191,900+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$102,458 - $191,900 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$60,945 - $102,458 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$33,624 - $60,945 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$33,624 9.6% 10.4% 0.8% 127,063
Shared Earn. Quintile
$106,162+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$74,636 - $106,162 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$52,919 - $74,636 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$32,782 - $52,919 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3,224
$0-$32,782 9.4% 10.1% 0.8% 123,839
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 1.8% 2.0% 0.2% 110,671
Spousal & Worker 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 1,384
Spousal Only 5.1% 5.3% 0.2% 2,404
Survivor & Worker 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 4,816
Survivor Only 7.0% 7.1% 0.1% 867
Retired Disabled 2.7% 2.8% 0.1% 6,918
Disabled Worker 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0
Claiming Age
62 or younger 3.0% 3.2% 0.2% 82,681
63–66 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 41,337
67 or older 1.3% 1.3% 0.1% 3,045
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
161–200 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 4,932
81–160 1.4% 1.7% 0.3% 91,779
0–80 11.0% 11.4% 0.3% 30,351
Own AIME Quintile
$8,955+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$5,945 - $8,955 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$4,095 - $5,945 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,356 - $4,095 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 25,312
$0-$2,356 9.0% 9.6% 0.6% 101,751
Paying AIME Quintile
$10,370+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$7,219 - $10,370 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$5,128 - $7,219 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1,384
$3,307 - $5,128 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1,796
$0-$3,307 9.3% 10.0% 0.8% 123,882
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,486+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,564 - $3,486 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,975 - $2,564 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,382 - $1,975 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$1,382 9.5% 10.3% 0.8% 127,063
Adj. Gross Income
$146,400+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$99,794 - $146,400 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 618
$66,090 - $99,794 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$1 - $66,090 1.4% 1.5% 0.1% 12,053
$0.00 5.0% 5.5% 0.4% 114,391
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 7. Poverty 2050: Longevity Indexing versus Payable
Characteristic Poverty Rate # of Poor Change
Payable Option Diff
Total 3.5% 2.1% -1.4% -1,147,691
Sex
Female 4.1% 2.6% -1.6% -684,636
Male 2.7% 1.4% -1.2% -463,054
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic 5.2% 3.2% -1.9% -268,675
White 2.4% 1.4% -1.0% -531,567
Black 7.1% 4.1% -3.0% -258,666
Other 3.6% 2.3% -1.3% -88,782
Immigration
Immigrant 4.9% 3.1% -1.8% -326,605
Native Born 3.1% 1.7% -1.3% -821,086
Age
60–69 4.3% 2.7% -1.6% -418,767
70–79 3.7% 2.2% -1.5% -464,123
80–89 2.5% 1.4% -1.1% -216,547
90+ 1.9% 1.0% -0.9% -48,252
Marital Status
Never Married 9.1% 5.9% -3.2% -284,624
Married 1.5% 0.9% -0.6% -258,180
Divorced 5.0% 3.0% -2.1% -324,575
Widowed 3.7% 2.0% -1.7% -280,311
Education
Graduate 0.8% 0.6% -0.3% -22,901
Bachelor 1.2% 0.7% -0.5% -93,379
Associate 2.9% 1.4% -1.5% -287,135
High School 4.7% 2.8% -1.9% -512,814
Less than 12 Yrs 10.3% 6.8% -3.5% -231,460
Indiv. Income Quintile
$118,077+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$63,076 - $118,077 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$38,685 - $63,076 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$23,078 - $38,685 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$23,078 17.5% 10.3% -7.1% -1,147,691
Hhld. Income Quintile
$191,900+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$102,458 - $191,900 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$60,945 - $102,458 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$33,624 - $60,945 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$0-$33,624 17.5% 10.4% -7.1% -1,147,691
Shared Earn. Quintile
$106,162+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$74,636 - $106,162 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$52,919 - $74,636 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -9,071
$32,782 - $52,919 1.1% 0.1% -1.0% -159,900
$0-$32,782 16.2% 10.1% -6.1% -978,719
Benefit Type
Retired Worker 3.1% 2.0% -1.1% -594,283
Spousal & Worker 0.9% 0.5% -0.4% -11,373
Spousal Only 7.9% 5.3% -2.6% -25,651
Survivor & Worker 1.6% 0.6% -1.0% -113,300
Survivor Only 10.4% 7.1% -3.3% -29,976
Retired Disabled 5.6% 2.8% -2.8% -207,264
Disabled Worker 8.2% 4.3% -3.9% -165,840
Claiming Age
62 or younger 5.4% 3.2% -2.2% -871,511
63–66 1.6% 0.9% -0.7% -239,758
67 or older 2.0% 1.3% -0.7% -36,421
Quarters of Coverage
201+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1,903
161–200 0.5% 0.1% -0.4% -101,782
81–160 3.7% 1.7% -2.0% -593,534
0–80 16.0% 11.4% -4.6% -450,471
Own AIME Quintile
$8,955+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$5,945 - $8,955 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$4,095 - $5,945 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -32,427
$2,356 - $4,095 3.1% 0.6% -2.5% -397,815
$0-$2,356 14.1% 9.6% -4.4% -717,448
Paying AIME Quintile
$10,370+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$7,219 - $10,370 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -4,879
$5,128 - $7,219 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -12,974
$3,307 - $5,128 1.3% 0.2% -1.1% -180,646
$0-$3,307 15.9% 10.0% -5.9% -949,191
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,486+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$2,564 - $3,486 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,975 - $2,564 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$1,382 - $1,975 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -29,089
$0-$1,382 17.2% 10.3% -6.9% -1,118,602
Adj. Gross Income
$146,400+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2,300
$99,794 - $146,400 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$66,090 - $99,794 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -5,429
$1 - $66,090 2.0% 1.5% -0.6% -75,053
$0.00 9.5% 5.5% -4.0% -1,064,907
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 4. Median Monthly Scheduled Benefit, 2050
Characteristic Wage-Adjusted (2012 $) Inflation-Adjusted (2012 $) Nominal (2050 $)
Total $1,049 $1,706 $4,678
Sex
Female $958 $1,557 $4,269
Male $1,151 $1,872 $5,132
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic $880 $1,432 $3,926
White $1,122 $1,825 $5,003
Black $935 $1,521 $4,170
Other $1,054 $1,713 $4,697
Immigration
Immigrant $909 $1,478 $4,053
Native Born $1,088 $1,770 $4,852
Age
60–69 $973 $1,582 $4,336
70–79 $1,036 $1,685 $4,621
80–89 $1,119 $1,820 $4,990
90+ $1,171 $1,905 $5,222
Marital Status
Never Married $937 $1,524 $4,179
Married $1,003 $1,631 $4,471
Divorced $1,070 $1,740 $4,770
Widowed $1,186 $1,928 $5,286
Education
Graduate $1,367 $2,224 $6,096
Bachelor $1,288 $2,095 $5,743
Associate $1,045 $1,700 $4,661
High School $930 $1,513 $4,148
Less than 12 Yrs $758 $1,233 $3,380
Indiv. Income Quintile
$118,077+ $1,454 $2,364 $6,481
$63,076 - $118,077 $1,292 $2,101 $5,759
$38,685 - $63,076 $1,124 $1,828 $5,013
$23,078 - $38,685 $975 $1,586 $4,347
$0-$23,078 $647 $1,053 $2,887
Hhld. Income Quintile
$191,900+ $1,387 $2,256 $6,185
$102,458 - $191,900 $1,232 $2,003 $5,491
$60,945 - $102,458 $1,111 $1,807 $4,953
$33,624 - $60,945 $991 $1,611 $4,416
$0-$33,624 $727 $1,183 $3,242
Shared Earn. Quintile
$106,162+ $1,570 $2,554 $7,001
$74,636 - $106,162 $1,300 $2,114 $5,797
$52,919 - $74,636 $1,070 $1,740 $4,770
$32,782 - $52,919 $876 $1,425 $3,907
$0-$32,782 $611 $993 $2,724
Benefit Type
Retired Worker $1,055 $1,716 $4,705
Spousal & Worker $671 $1,091 $2,991
Spousal Only $411 $668 $1,830
Survivor & Worker $1,237 $2,012 $5,517
Survivor Only $898 $1,460 $4,002
Retired Disabled $1,033 $1,680 $4,606
Disabled Worker $1,011 $1,644 $4,508
Claiming Age
62 or younger $899 $1,462 $4,009
63–66 $1,191 $1,937 $5,311
67 or older $1,475 $2,399 $6,576
Quarters of Coverage
201+ $1,409 $2,292 $6,283
161–200 $1,188 $1,932 $5,297
81–160 $877 $1,427 $3,912
0–80 $579 $942 $2,583
Own AIME Quintile
$8,955+ $1,600 $2,602 $7,133
$5,945 - $8,955 $1,273 $2,070 $5,676
$4,095 - $5,945 $993 $1,614 $4,426
$2,356 - $4,095 $778 $1,266 $3,471
$0-$2,356 $572 $931 $2,552
Paying AIME Quintile
$10,370+ $1,602 $2,606 $7,144
$7,219 - $10,370 $1,350 $2,196 $6,021
$5,128 - $7,219 $1,093 $1,778 $4,875
$3,307 - $5,128 $854 $1,388 $3,805
$0-$3,307 $575 $935 $2,564
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,486+ $1,395 $2,269 $6,221
$2,564 - $3,486 $1,264 $2,055 $5,635
$1,975 - $2,564 $1,313 $2,135 $5,854
$1,382 - $1,975 $996 $1,620 $4,441
$0-$1,382 $624 $1,015 $2,784
Adj. Gross Income
$146,400+ $1,403 $2,281 $6,254
$99,794 - $146,400 $1,223 $1,988 $5,451
$66,090 - $99,794 $1,145 $1,862 $5,104
$1 - $66,090 $936 $1,522 $4,172
$0.00 $864 $1,406 $3,854
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.
Table 8. Median Monthly Payable Benefit, 2050
Characteristic Wage-Adjusted (2012 $) Inflation-Adjusted (2012 $) Nominal (2050 $)
Total $821 $1,334 $3,658
Sex
Female $749 $1,218 $3,338
Male $900 $1,464 $4,013
Race/Ethnicity
Hispanic $689 $1,120 $3,070
White $878 $1,427 $3,912
Black $731 $1,189 $3,261
Other $824 $1,340 $3,673
Immigration
Immigrant $711 $1,156 $3,170
Native Born $851 $1,384 $3,794
Age
60–69 $761 $1,237 $3,391
70–79 $810 $1,318 $3,613
80–89 $875 $1,423 $3,902
90+ $916 $1,490 $4,084
Marital Status
Never Married $733 $1,192 $3,268
Married $784 $1,275 $3,496
Divorced $837 $1,361 $3,730
Widowed $927 $1,508 $4,134
Education
Graduate $1,069 $1,739 $4,767
Bachelor $1,007 $1,638 $4,491
Associate $818 $1,329 $3,645
High School $728 $1,183 $3,244
Less than 12 Yrs $593 $964 $2,643
Indiv. Income Quintile
$118,077+ $1,137 $1,849 $5,068
$63,076 - $118,077 $1,010 $1,643 $4,504
$38,685 - $63,076 $879 $1,430 $3,920
$23,078 - $38,685 $762 $1,240 $3,399
$0-$23,078 $506 $823 $2,257
Hhld. Income Quintile
$191,900+ $1,085 $1,764 $4,837
$102,458 - $191,900 $963 $1,566 $4,294
$60,945 - $102,458 $869 $1,413 $3,874
$33,624 - $60,945 $775 $1,260 $3,454
$0-$33,624 $569 $925 $2,535
Shared Earn. Quintile
$106,162+ $1,228 $1,997 $5,475
$74,636 - $106,162 $1,017 $1,653 $4,533
$52,919 - $74,636 $837 $1,361 $3,730
$32,782 - $52,919 $685 $1,115 $3,056
$0-$32,782 $478 $777 $2,130
Benefit Type
Retired Worker $825 $1,342 $3,679
Spousal & Worker $525 $853 $2,339
Spousal Only $321 $522 $1,431
Survivor & Worker $968 $1,574 $4,314
Survivor Only $702 $1,141 $3,129
Retired Disabled $808 $1,314 $3,602
Disabled Worker $791 $1,286 $3,525
Claiming Age
62 or younger $703 $1,144 $3,135
63–66 $932 $1,515 $4,153
67 or older $1,153 $1,876 $5,142
Quarters of Coverage
201+ $1,102 $1,792 $4,914
161–200 $929 $1,511 $4,142
81–160 $686 $1,116 $3,059
0–80 $453 $737 $2,020
Own AIME Quintile
$8,955+ $1,251 $2,035 $5,578
$5,945 - $8,955 $996 $1,619 $4,439
$4,095 - $5,945 $776 $1,263 $3,461
$2,356 - $4,095 $609 $990 $2,714
$0-$2,356 $448 $728 $1,995
Paying AIME Quintile
$10,370+ $1,253 $2,038 $5,587
$7,219 - $10,370 $1,056 $1,717 $4,708
$5,128 - $7,219 $855 $1,390 $3,812
$3,307 - $5,128 $667 $1,085 $2,976
$0-$3,307 $450 $731 $2,005
Hhld. Benefit Quintile
$3,486+ $1,091 $1,774 $4,865
$2,564 - $3,486 $988 $1,607 $4,407
$1,975 - $2,564 $1,027 $1,670 $4,577
$1,382 - $1,975 $779 $1,267 $3,473
$0-$1,382 $488 $794 $2,177
Adj. Gross Income
$146,400+ $1,097 $1,784 $4,891
$99,794 - $146,400 $956 $1,555 $4,263
$66,090 - $99,794 $895 $1,456 $3,991
$1 - $66,090 $732 $1,190 $3,262
$0.00 $676 $1,099 $3,014
Population: current law beneficiaries aged 60 and older
Source: SSA's Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 6/TR11 Assumptions/SSMBA 4. Run: 03/05/2014
Note: This proposal is based on specifications received from outside the Social Security Administration, unless noted otherwise. It does not represent the views of the agency.