CATEGORY: COST OF LIVING ADJUSTMENT CHANGES
PROPOSAL:Increase the cost of living adjustment: Base it on the CPI-E

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2070

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 84% 0% 100%
Sex
Female 0% 85% 0% 100%
Male 0% 83% 0% 100%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 79% 0% 100%
White 0% 86% 0% 100%
Black 0% 84% 0% 100%
Other 0% 85% 0% 100%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 84% 0% 100%
Foreign 0% 85% 0% 100%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 45% 0% 100%
70-79 0% 99% 0% 100%
80-89 0% 100% 0% 100%
90+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Married 0% 82% 0% 100%
Divorced 0% 84% 0% 100%
Widowed 0% 96% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 81% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 87% 0% 100%
Bachelor 0% 87% 0% 100%
Associate 0% 83% 0% 100%
High School 0% 83% 0% 100%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 79% 0% 100%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 84% 0% 100%
In poverty 0% 83% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0% 83% 0% 100%
$116,305 - $221,317 0% 81% 0% 100%
$67,516 - $116,305 0% 83% 0% 100%
$36,533 - $67,516 0% 87% 0% 100%
$0-$36,533 0% 87% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 84% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 93% 0% 100%
Spouse 0% 88% 0% 100%
Disabled worker 0% 63% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 100% 0% 100%
Sex
Female 0% 100% 0% 100%
Male 0% 100% 0% 100%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 100% 0% 100%
White 0% 100% 0% 100%
Black 0% 100% 0% 100%
Other 0% 100% 0% 100%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 100% 0% 100%
Foreign 0% 100% 0% 100%
Age
60-69 0% 100% 0% 100%
70-79 0% 100% 0% 100%
80-89 0% 100% 0% 100%
90+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
Marital Status
Married 0% 100% 0% 100%
Divorced 0% 100% 0% 100%
Widowed 0% 100% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 100% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 100% 0% 100%
Bachelor 0% 100% 0% 100%
Associate 0% 100% 0% 100%
High School 0% 100% 0% 100%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 100% 0% 100%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 100% 0% 100%
In poverty 0% 100% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0% 100% 0% 100%
$116,305 - $221,317 0% 100% 0% 100%
$67,516 - $116,305 0% 100% 0% 100%
$36,533 - $67,516 0% 100% 0% 100%
$0-$36,533 0% 100% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 100% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 100% 0% 100%
Spouse 0% 100% 0% 100%
Disabled worker 0% 100% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 52% 0% 62%
Sex
Female 0% 56% 0% 65%
Male 0% 0% 48% 0% 57%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 50% 0% 61%
White 0% 54% 0% 62%
Black 0% 59% 0% 69%
Other 0% 0% 45% 0% 52%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 53% 0% 62%
Foreign 0% 51% 0% 59%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 19% 0% 0% 38%
70-79 0% 54% 0% 54%
80-89 0% 78% 0% 78%
90+ 0% 79% 0% 79%
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 47% 0% 56%
Divorced 0% 53% 0% 63%
Widowed 0% 71% 0% 74%
Never Married 0% 0% 49% 0% 60%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 45% 0% 51%
Bachelor 0% 0% 49% 0% 56%
Associate 0% 55% 0% 66%
High School 0% 56% 0% 67%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 51% 0% 63%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 52% 0% 61%
In poverty 0% 68% 0% 82%
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 9%
$116,305 - $221,317 0% 0% 34% 0% 0% 42%
$67,516 - $116,305 0% 59% 0% 70%
$36,533 - $67,516 0% 78% 0% 88%
$0-$36,533 0% 84% 0% 95%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 50% 0% 59%
Widow(er) 0% 72% 0% 77%
Spouse 0% 51% 0% 58%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 37% 0% 56%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 98% 0% 98%
Sex
Female 0% 98% 0% 98%
Male 0% 98% 0% 99%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 98% 0% 99%
White 0% 98% 0% 99%
Black 0% 98% 0% 98%
Other 0% 96% 0% 97%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 98% 0% 99%
Foreign 0% 97% 0% 97%
Age
60-69 0% 97% 0% 98%
70-79 0% 99% 0% 99%
80-89 0% 99% 0% 99%
90+ 0% 97% 0% 97%
Marital Status
Married 0% 98% 0% 99%
Divorced 0% 99% 0% 99%
Widowed 0% 98% 0% 98%
Never Married 0% 97% 0% 98%
Education
Graduate 0% 97% 0% 98%
Bachelor 0% 98% 0% 98%
Associate 0% 99% 0% 99%
High School 0% 98% 0% 98%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 97% 0% 98%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 98% 0% 99%
In poverty 4% 86% 4% 86%
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0% 93% 0% 94%
$116,305 - $221,317 0% 99% 0% 100%
$67,516 - $116,305 0% 100% 0% 100%
$36,533 - $67,516 0% 100% 0% 100%
$0-$36,533 0% 98% 0% 98%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 98% 0% 98%
Widow(er) 0% 98% 0% 99%
Spouse 0% 98% 0% 98%
Disabled worker 0% 98% 0% 98%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 2.1% 2.0% -0.2% -159
Sex
Female 2.4% 2.3% -0.2% -80
Male 1.8% 1.6% -0.2% -78
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 2.9% 2.7% -0.2% -46
White 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% -63
Black 4.2% 3.8% -0.4% -37
Other 2.3% 2.1% -0.1% -11
Country of Birth
U.S. 1.6% 1.5% -0.1% -112
Foreign 3.9% 3.7% -0.2% -46
Age
60-69 2.4% 2.2% -0.2% -42
70-79 2.0% 1.9% -0.1% -42
80-89 2.1% 1.9% -0.2% -53
90+ 1.6% 1.4% -0.2% -20
Marital Status
Married 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% -12
Divorced 2.6% 2.4% -0.2% -40
Widowed 1.9% 1.7% -0.2% -34
Never Married 5.3% 4.9% -0.4% -71
Education
Graduate 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% -4
Bachelor 0.8% 0.8% -0.1% -12
Associate 1.5% 1.3% -0.1% -31
High School 2.9% 2.7% -0.2% -76
Less than 12 Yrs 5.5% 5.2% -0.3% -34
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
In poverty 100.0% 92.4% -7.6% -159
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$116,305 - $221,317 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
$67,516 - $116,305 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2
$36,533 - $67,516 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -4
$0-$36,533 10.3% 9.6% -0.8% -152
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 2.2% 2.0% -0.2% -118
Widow(er) 1.4% 1.3% -0.2% -21
Spouse 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0
Disabled worker 3.2% 2.7% -0.5% -19
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Payable Option Change
Total 4.7% 2.0% -2.7% -2,694
Sex
Female 5.3% 2.3% -3.0% -1,558
Male 4.0% 1.6% -2.4% -1,135
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 6.3% 2.7% -3.6% -855
White 3.2% 1.3% -1.9% -1,069
Black 9.0% 3.8% -5.1% -514
Other 4.8% 2.1% -2.6% -254
Country of Birth
U.S. 3.9% 1.5% -2.5% -1,914
Foreign 7.2% 3.7% -3.6% -779
Age
60-69 4.9% 2.2% -2.6% -740
70-79 4.5% 1.9% -2.6% -960
80-89 4.9% 1.9% -3.0% -750
90+ 4.0% 1.4% -2.7% -242
Marital Status
Married 1.5% 0.7% -0.8% -351
Divorced 6.1% 2.4% -3.7% -752
Widowed 5.2% 1.7% -3.5% -526
Never Married 10.8% 4.9% -5.9% -1,063
Education
Graduate 1.6% 0.7% -0.9% -123
Bachelor 1.7% 0.8% -1.0% -210
Associate 3.7% 1.3% -2.4% -500
High School 6.6% 2.7% -3.9% -1,258
Less than 12 Yrs 11.0% 5.2% -5.8% -600
Official Poverty
Above poverty 2.6% 0.0% -2.6% -2,538
In poverty 99.8% 92.4% -7.4% -155
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -4
$116,305 - $221,317 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -10
$67,516 - $116,305 0.2% 0.0% -0.1% -27
$36,533 - $67,516 0.7% 0.2% -0.6% -111
$0-$36,533 22.3% 9.6% -12.8% -2,540
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 2.0% -2.6% -1,973
Widow(er) 4.5% 1.3% -3.2% -436
Spouse 4.0% 1.9% -2.1% -116
Disabled worker 6.8% 2.7% -4.1% -167
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 99,367 100.0 83,722 100.0 16 100.0 83,706 100.0
Sex
Female 51,669 52.0 44,003 52.6 3 17.3 44,001 52.6
Male 47,698 48.0 39,719 47.4 13 82.7 39,706 47.4
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 23,798 23.9 18,914 22.6 6 35.9 18,908 22.6
White 55,862 56.2 48,117 57.5 10 64.1 48,107 57.5
Black 10,043 10.1 8,479 10.1 . . . . . . 8,479 10.1
Other 9,664 9.7 8,213 9.8 . . . . . . 8,213 9.8
Country of Birth
U.S. 77,479 78.0 65,154 77.8 13 81.6 65,141 77.8
Foreign 21,888 22.0 18,568 22.2 3 18.4 18,565 22.2
Age
60-69 28,040 28.2 12,711 15.2 16 100.0 12,695 15.2
70-79 37,436 37.7 37,153 44.4 . . . . . . 37,153 44.4
80-89 24,883 25.0 24,855 29.7 . . . . . . 24,855 29.7
90+ 9,008 9.1 9,004 10.8 . . . . . . 9,004 10.8
Marital Status
Married 45,743 46.0 37,537 44.8 11 70.3 37,525 44.8
Divorced 20,504 20.6 17,169 20.5 5 29.7 17,164 20.5
Widowed 15,160 15.3 14,482 17.3 . . . . . . 14,482 17.3
Never Married 17,960 18.1 14,534 17.4 . . . . . . 14,534 17.4
Education
Graduate 13,734 13.8 11,993 14.3 . . . . . . 11,993 14.3
Bachelor 22,043 22.2 19,159 22.9 6 35.4 19,153 22.9
Associate 21,221 21.4 17,709 21.2 3 17.3 17,707 21.2
High School 31,969 32.2 26,617 31.8 5 28.8 26,612 31.8
Less than 12 Yrs 10,400 10.5 8,244 9.8 3 18.4 8,241 9.8
Official Poverty
Above poverty 97,260 97.9 81,983 97.9 16 100.0 81,967 97.9
In poverty 2,107 2.1 1,739 2.1 . . . . . . 1,739 2.1
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 19,874 20.0 16,558 19.8 8 46.6 16,551 19.8
$116,305 - $221,317 19,873 20.0 16,131 19.3 3 17.5 16,128 19.3
$67,516 - $116,305 19,873 20.0 16,485 19.7 3 17.5 16,483 19.7
$36,533 - $67,516 19,870 20.0 17,238 20.6 1 9.0 17,237 20.6
$0-$36,533 19,877 20.0 17,310 20.7 2 9.4 17,308 20.7
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 76,149 76.6 63,631 76.0 8 52.7 63,622 76.0
Widow(er) 13,655 13.7 12,692 15.2 8 47.3 12,685 15.2
Spouse 5,494 5.5 4,820 5.8 . . . . . . 4,820 5.8
Disabled worker 4,069 4.1 2,579 3.1 . . . . . . 2,579 3.1
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 99,367 100.0 99,364 100.0 . . . . . . 99,364 100.0
Sex
Female 51,669 52.0 51,669 52.0 . . . . . . 51,669 52.0
Male 47,698 48.0 47,695 48.0 . . . . . . 47,695 48.0
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 23,798 23.9 23,798 24.0 . . . . . . 23,798 24.0
White 55,862 56.2 55,859 56.2 . . . . . . 55,859 56.2
Black 10,043 10.1 10,043 10.1 . . . . . . 10,043 10.1
Other 9,664 9.7 9,664 9.7 . . . . . . 9,664 9.7
Country of Birth
U.S. 77,479 78.0 77,476 78.0 . . . . . . 77,476 78.0
Foreign 21,888 22.0 21,888 22.0 . . . . . . 21,888 22.0
Age
60-69 28,040 28.2 28,037 28.2 . . . . . . 28,037 28.2
70-79 37,436 37.7 37,436 37.7 . . . . . . 37,436 37.7
80-89 24,883 25.0 24,883 25.0 . . . . . . 24,883 25.0
90+ 9,008 9.1 9,008 9.1 . . . . . . 9,008 9.1
Marital Status
Married 45,743 46.0 45,740 46.0 . . . . . . 45,740 46.0
Divorced 20,504 20.6 20,504 20.6 . . . . . . 20,504 20.6
Widowed 15,160 15.3 15,160 15.3 . . . . . . 15,160 15.3
Never Married 17,960 18.1 17,960 18.1 . . . . . . 17,960 18.1
Education
Graduate 13,734 13.8 13,734 13.8 . . . . . . 13,734 13.8
Bachelor 22,043 22.2 22,040 22.2 . . . . . . 22,040 22.2
Associate 21,221 21.4 21,221 21.4 . . . . . . 21,221 21.4
High School 31,969 32.2 31,969 32.2 . . . . . . 31,969 32.2
Less than 12 Yrs 10,400 10.5 10,400 10.5 . . . . . . 10,400 10.5
Official Poverty
Above poverty 97,260 97.9 97,257 97.9 . . . . . . 97,257 97.9
In poverty 2,107 2.1 2,107 2.1 . . . . . . 2,107 2.1
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 19,874 20.0 19,871 20.0 . . . . . . 19,871 20.0
$116,305 - $221,317 19,873 20.0 19,873 20.0 . . . . . . 19,873 20.0
$67,516 - $116,305 19,873 20.0 19,873 20.0 . . . . . . 19,873 20.0
$36,533 - $67,516 19,870 20.0 19,870 20.0 . . . . . . 19,870 20.0
$0-$36,533 19,877 20.0 19,877 20.0 . . . . . . 19,877 20.0
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 76,149 76.6 76,146 76.6 . . . . . . 76,146 76.6
Widow(er) 13,655 13.7 13,655 13.7 . . . . . . 13,655 13.7
Spouse 5,494 5.5 5,494 5.5 . . . . . . 5,494 5.5
Disabled worker 4,069 4.1 4,069 4.1 . . . . . . 4,069 4.1
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 99,367 0 99,370
Sex
Female 51,669 0 0 51,669
Male 47,698 0 47,701
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 23,798 0 23,799
White 55,862 0 0 55,862
Black 10,043 0 10,045
Other 9,664 0 0 9,664
Country of Birth
U.S. 77,479 0 77,481
Foreign 21,888 0 21,889
Age
60-69 28,040 0 28,043
70-79 37,436 0 0 37,436
80-89 24,883 0 0 24,883
90+ 9,008 0 0 9,008
Marital Status
Married 45,743 0 0 45,743
Divorced 20,504 0 0 20,504
Widowed 15,160 0 0 15,160
Never Married 17,960 0 17,963
Education
Graduate 13,734 0 0 13,734
Bachelor 22,043 0 0 22,043
Associate 21,221 0 0 21,221
High School 31,969 0 31,971
Less than 12 Yrs 10,400 0 10,401
Official Poverty
Above poverty 97,260 0 97,264
In poverty 2,107 0 0 2,107
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 19,874 0 19,875
$116,305 - $221,317 19,873 0 0 19,873
$67,516 - $116,305 19,873 0 19,875
$36,533 - $67,516 19,870 0 0 19,870
$0-$36,533 19,877 0 0 19,877
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 76,149 0 0 76,149
Widow(er) 13,655 0 0 13,655
Spouse 5,494 0 0 5,494
Disabled worker 4,069 0 0 4,069
None 0 0 3
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2070: CPI-E COLA vs. Payable (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 99,367 0 99,370
Sex
Female 51,669 0 0 51,669
Male 47,698 0 47,701
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 23,798 0 23,799
White 55,862 0 0 55,862
Black 10,043 0 10,045
Other 9,664 0 0 9,664
Country of Birth
U.S. 77,479 0 77,481
Foreign 21,888 0 21,889
Age
60-69 28,040 0 28,043
70-79 37,436 0 0 37,436
80-89 24,883 0 0 24,883
90+ 9,008 0 0 9,008
Marital Status
Married 45,743 0 0 45,743
Divorced 20,504 0 0 20,504
Widowed 15,160 0 0 15,160
Never Married 17,960 0 17,963
Education
Graduate 13,734 0 0 13,734
Bachelor 22,043 0 0 22,043
Associate 21,221 0 0 21,221
High School 31,969 0 31,971
Less than 12 Yrs 10,400 0 10,401
Official Poverty
Above poverty 97,260 0 97,264
In poverty 2,107 0 0 2,107
Household Income Quintile
$221,317+ 19,874 0 19,875
$116,305 - $221,317 19,873 0 0 19,873
$67,516 - $116,305 19,873 0 19,875
$36,533 - $67,516 19,870 0 0 19,870
$0-$36,533 19,877 0 0 19,877
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 76,149 0 0 76,149
Widow(er) 13,655 0 0 13,655
Spouse 5,494 0 0 5,494
Disabled worker 4,069 0 0 4,069
None 0 0 3
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: NASI0714v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.