CATEGORY: COVERAGE CHANGES
PROPOSAL: Cover all newly hired state and local workers

Projected effects on beneficiaries in 2030

Table 1. Individual benefit changes, 2030: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Benefits Higher Benefits Lower Benefits Higher Benefits
Total 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
Male 0% 0% 2% 1% 99%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
White 0% 0% 2% 1% 99%
Black 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
Other 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 2% 1% 99%
Foreign 0% 0% 3% 0% 100%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 3%
70-79 0% 0% 2%
80-89 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
Divorced 0% 0% 2% 2% 98%
Widowed 0% 0% 1% 0% 100%
Never Married 0% 0% 3% 0% 100%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 3% 1% 99%
Bachelor 0% 0% 3% 1% 99%
Associate 0% 0% 1% 0% 100%
High School 0% 0% 1% 0% 100%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 1% 0% 100%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
In poverty 0% 0% 1% 0% 100%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 0% 3% 0% 100%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 0% 2% 1% 99%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 0% 2% 1% 99%
$0-$30,478 0% 0% 1% 0% 100%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
Widow(er) 0% 0% 1% 0% 100%
Spouse 0% 0% 2% 2% 98%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 2% 0% 100%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 2. Household income changes, 2030: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All Beneficiaries Affected Beneficiaries
Median Percent Change Percent With Median Percent Change Percent With
Lower Income Higher Income Lower Income Higher Income
Total 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 37%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 37%
Male 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 36%
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 0% 0% 1% 0% 52%
White 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 32%
Black 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 47%
Other 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 46%
Country of Birth
U.S. 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 34%
Foreign 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 45%
Age
60-69 0% 0% 1%
70-79 0% 0% 1%
80-89 0% 0% 0%
90+ 0% 0% 0%
Marital Status
Married 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 30%
Divorced 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 42%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36%
Never Married 0% 0% 2% 0% 62%
Education
Graduate 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 26%
Bachelor 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 39%
Associate 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 34%
High School 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 42%
Less than 12 Yrs 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 45%
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 36%
In poverty 0% 0% 1% 0% 65%
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%
$97,521 - $175,526 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 22%
$57,224 - $97,521 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 43%
$30,478 - $57,224 0% 0% 1% 1% 55%
$0-$30,478 0% 0% 1% 0% 76%
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 35%
Widow(er) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 49%
Spouse 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 39%
Disabled worker 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 45%
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: — = sample size is too small.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 3. Poverty, 2030: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Poverty Rate Population Change (thousands)
Scheduled Option Change
Total 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% -5
Sex
Female 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% -3
Male 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% -1
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0
White 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% -3
Black 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0
Other 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% -1
Country of Birth
U.S. 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% -1
Foreign 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% -3
Age
60-69 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% -3
70-79 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% -1
80-89 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0
90+ 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0
Marital Status
Married 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0
Divorced 8.3% 8.2% 0.0% -3
Widowed 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0
Never Married 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0
Education
Graduate 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0
Bachelor 2.2% 2.1% 0.0% -5
Associate 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0
High School 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0
Less than 12 Yrs 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0
Official Poverty
Above poverty 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0
In poverty 100.0% 99.9% -0.1% -5
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$97,521 - $175,526 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0
$57,224 - $97,521 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0
$30,478 - $57,224 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0
$0-$30,478 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% -5
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% -3
Widow(er) 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0
Spouse 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% -1
Disabled worker 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 4. Beneficiary characteristics, 2030: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled
POPULATION: current law beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic All beneficiaries Affected beneficiaries Beneficiaries with lower benefits Beneficiaries with higher benefits
Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent Number (thousands) Percent
Total 73,810 100.0 1,365 100.0 6 100.0 1,359 100.0
Sex
Female 39,993 54.2 669 49.0 1 19.1 668 49.2
Male 33,817 45.8 696 51.0 5 80.9 691 50.8
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 10.7 172 12.6 . . . . . . 172 12.7
White 54,004 73.2 989 72.4 6 100.0 983 72.3
Black 7,559 10.2 125 9.1 . . . . . . 125 9.2
Other 4,382 5.9 80 5.8 . . . . . . 80 5.9
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 84.5 1,040 76.2 6 100.0 1,034 76.1
Foreign 11,438 15.5 325 23.8 . . . . . . 325 23.9
Age
60-69 24,505 33.2 772 56.5 2 25.2 770 56.7
70-79 31,533 42.7 575 42.2 4 74.8 571 42.0
80-89 14,979 20.3 18 1.3 . . . . . . 18 1.3
90+ 2,793 3.8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Marital Status
Married 41,785 56.6 821 60.2 1 19.1 820 60.3
Divorced 13,632 18.5 287 21.0 5 80.9 282 20.7
Widowed 12,828 17.4 101 7.4 . . . . . . 101 7.4
Never Married 5,566 7.5 156 11.4 . . . . . . 156 11.5
Education
Graduate 8,636 11.7 285 20.9 3 55.7 282 20.8
Bachelor 13,936 18.9 438 32.1 3 44.3 435 32.0
Associate 16,752 22.7 212 15.6 . . . . . . 212 15.6
High School 28,256 38.3 357 26.2 . . . . . . 357 26.3
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 8.4 72 5.3 . . . . . . 72 5.3
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 95.1 1,331 97.5 6 100.0 1,325 97.5
In poverty 3,604 4.9 34 2.5 . . . . . . 34 2.5
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 20.0 386 28.3 1 19.1 385 28.3
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 20.0 288 21.1 . . . . . . 288 21.2
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 20.0 243 17.8 3 55.7 239 17.6
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 20.0 242 17.7 2 25.2 240 17.7
$0-$30,478 14,763 20.0 206 15.1 . . . . . . 206 15.2
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 70.3 1,137 83.3 3 55.7 1,134 83.5
Widow(er) 12,154 16.5 61 4.5 . . . . . . 61 4.5
Spouse 6,571 8.9 118 8.7 3 44.3 115 8.5
Disabled worker 3,215 4.4 48 3.5 . . . . . . 48 3.6
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Note: . . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Table 5. Beneficiary Status, 2030: Cover State and Local Workers vs. Scheduled (in thousands)
POPULATION: current law or option beneficiaries aged 60+
Characteristic Current Law Beneficiaries Changes in beneficiary status under proposed option Policy Option Beneficiaries
Added Removed Net Change
Total 73,810 0 73,822
Sex
Female 39,993 0 40,002
Male 33,817 0 33,820
Ethnicity/Race
Hispanic 7,865 0 7,871
White 54,004 0 54,008
Black 7,559 0 0 7,559
Other 4,382 0 4,384
Country of Birth
U.S. 62,372 0 62,380
Foreign 11,438 0 11,443
Age
60-69 24,505 0 24,513
70-79 31,533 0 31,537
80-89 14,979 0 0 14,979
90+ 2,793 0 0 2,793
Marital Status
Married 41,785 0 41,793
Divorced 13,632 0 13,635
Widowed 12,828 0 12,829
Never Married 5,566 0 0 5,566
Education
Graduate 8,636 0 0 8,636
Bachelor 13,936 0 13,943
Associate 16,752 0 0 16,752
High School 28,256 0 28,260
Less than 12 Yrs 6,230 0 6,231
Official Poverty
Above poverty 70,205 0 70,216
In poverty 3,604 0 3,606
Household Income Quintile
$175,526+ 14,762 0 14,764
$97,521 - $175,526 14,762 0 14,764
$57,224 - $97,521 14,763 0 14,765
$30,478 - $57,224 14,759 0 14,760
$0-$30,478 14,763 0 14,768
Current Law Benefit Type
Retired worker 51,869 0 0 51,869
Widow(er) 12,154 0 0 12,154
Spouse 6,571 0 0 6,571
Disabled worker 3,215 0 0 3,215
None 0 0 13
Source: SSA/Office of Retirement Policy, using MINT 7 Run: 03/09/2015 Ref #: SSAB0331v1
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.