Disability Insurance program: worker experience

SOCIAL SECURITY
DISABILITY INSURANCE PROGRAM
WORKER EXPERIENCE

ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 114

by Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.

Termination Study by Select Age and Duration

Table 9A.--DI Male Disabled Worker Probability of Death or Recovery

(1991-1995 Social Security disability experience)

Select age	Duration of disability											Attained age
Select age	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10+	Attained age
20	0.027442	0.029106	0.022793	0.031940	0.055874	0.057916	0.049452	0.040974	0.034212	0.028790	0.027437	30
21	0.031323	0.032397	0.024987	0.032395	0.053973	0.055075	0.046255	0.038724	0.031788	0.027085	0.024672	31
22	0.035486	0.036267	0.027634	0.032982	0.052088	0.052284	0.043345	0.036459	0.029543	0.025531	0.021921	32
23	0.040128	0.041373	0.030919	0.034016	0.050467	0.049546	0.041111	0.034319	0.027871	0.024108	0.019744	33
24	0.045924	0.047758	0.035151	0.035367	0.049273	0.047086	0.039399	0.032683	0.026925	0.023171	0.018449	34

25	0.053186	0.055369	0.040081	0.037193	0.048086	0.044786	0.037680	0.031609	0.026544	0.022600	0.017627	35
26	0.061092	0.063038	0.044899	0.038849	0.046558	0.042820	0.036305	0.030975	0.026276	0.022199	0.016834	36
27	0.068882	0.069438	0.048792	0.040001	0.045262	0.041217	0.034958	0.030397	0.026104	0.022053	0.016205	37
28	0.075351	0.074696	0.051683	0.040731	0.044037	0.039921	0.033967	0.029883	0.025798	0.022092	0.016005	38
29	0.080310	0.078682	0.054072	0.040908	0.043090	0.038729	0.033424	0.029562	0.025536	0.022233	0.016108	39

30	0.083608	0.081412	0.055433	0.041204	0.042327	0.037812	0.033075	0.029181	0.025457	0.022332	0.016633	40
31	0.085673	0.082298	0.056017	0.041530	0.041743	0.037034	0.032465	0.028803	0.025539	0.022480	0.017296	41
32	0.087628	0.082856	0.056240	0.041433	0.041054	0.036471	0.032040	0.028472	0.025894	0.022873	0.017642	42
33	0.088415	0.082699	0.056062	0.041302	0.040492	0.036417	0.031660	0.028232	0.025831	0.023237	0.017768	43
34	0.088717	0.081964	0.055536	0.041265	0.040006	0.036025	0.031601	0.028043	0.025719	0.023461	0.018369	44

35	0.089125	0.081197	0.054592	0.041260	0.039835	0.035698	0.031614	0.027992	0.025859	0.023695	0.019243	45
36	0.088946	0.080507	0.053840	0.040726	0.039518	0.035275	0.031513	0.027926	0.026202	0.024285	0.020431	46
37	0.088777	0.079777	0.052997	0.040013	0.038769	0.035020	0.031344	0.027747	0.026488	0.025031	0.021685	47
38	0.088886	0.078173	0.051576	0.038927	0.037717	0.034680	0.031236	0.027960	0.026675	0.025358	0.022308	48
39	0.089204	0.076253	0.049471	0.037789	0.037045	0.034227	0.031218	0.028545	0.027055	0.025665	0.022810	49

40	0.089006	0.074242	0.047492	0.036567	0.036414	0.034190	0.031235	0.029138	0.027877	0.026374	0.023930	50
41	0.088355	0.072017	0.045752	0.035587	0.035911	0.033666	0.031598	0.030088	0.029274	0.027879	0.025343	51
42	0.087305	0.069776	0.044690	0.035178	0.035277	0.033169	0.032097	0.031088	0.030966	0.030215	0.027095	52
43	0.086657	0.067899	0.043875	0.035264	0.035191	0.033191	0.032622	0.032064	0.032574	0.032345	0.028872	53
44	0.086564	0.066260	0.043496	0.035315	0.035498	0.033730	0.033178	0.033094	0.033911	0.033885	0.030932	54

45	0.087039	0.064487	0.042958	0.035665	0.036120	0.034576	0.033707	0.034190	0.035239	0.035447	0.032688	55
46	0.088594	0.063458	0.042535	0.036402	0.036657	0.035436	0.034818	0.035829	0.036793	0.037263	0.034418	56
47	0.089847	0.062883	0.042614	0.036925	0.037350	0.036439	0.036268	0.037512	0.038597	0.039389	0.036396	57
48	0.089618	0.061370	0.042544	0.037082	0.038429	0.037721	0.037992	0.039094	0.040252	0.041761	0.038999	58
49	0.087654	0.059344	0.042145	0.036831	0.039433	0.038742	0.039933	0.040265	0.041788	0.043819	0.041249	59

50	0.085444	0.057545	0.041658	0.036838	0.039872	0.040410	0.041658	0.041558	0.043405	0.045619	0.043419	60
51	0.088732	0.058076	0.042520	0.038287	0.040836	0.042232	0.043359	0.043637	0.045529	0.047834	0.046361	61
52	0.091712	0.058803	0.043260	0.039648	0.042206	0.044080	0.044612	0.045918	0.048181	0.049325	0.049084	62
53	0.092661	0.058620	0.043345	0.040599	0.043699	0.045758	0.046547	0.047931	0.050348	0.049009	0.045607	63
54	0.089688	0.057506	0.043155	0.041221	0.045029	0.047338	0.048589	0.049042	0.050299	0.046441	0.033750	64

55	0.085187	0.056269	0.042626	0.041970	0.046336	0.048467	0.049423	0.049144	0.047532	0.043780	--	65
56	0.086726	0.057250	0.044686	0.043978	0.048470	0.049585	0.049310	0.047200	0.044217	--	--	66
57	0.088560	0.059108	0.047908	0.046662	0.049815	0.049557	0.046454	0.043859	--	--	--	67
58	0.091139	0.061693	0.050872	0.049157	0.049631	0.046368	0.042656	--	--	--	--	68
59	0.092950	0.064305	0.052771	0.049890	0.045526	0.041570	--	--	--	--	--	69

60	0.096797	0.066905	0.053618	0.047840	0.039885	--	--	--	--	--	--	70
61	0.109925	0.071874	0.052839	0.043336	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	71
62	0.122388	0.074350	0.049549	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	72
63	0.128150	0.073014	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	73
64	0.120377	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	74

Notes:
(1) Probability of decrement

in a multiple-decrement environment. Select age denotes age last birthday at entitlement.
(2) The quantity at duration t represents the probability of death or recovery during the ( t +1) year of entitlement for those lives originally entitled to disability benefits at select age [ x ] and who are currently attained age [ x ]+ t.
(3) Probabilities are read across the row for durations 0-10, and down the ultimate column ("10+") for durations greater than 10.
(4) The probabilities shown have been graduated using the Whittaker-Henderson Type B two-dimensional graduation methodology. See the appendix for details.

Table 9B.--DI Female Disabled Worker Probability of Death or Recovery

(1991-1995 Social Security disability experience)

Select age	Duration of disability											Attained age
Select age	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10+	Attained age
20	0.021718	0.022571	0.020258	0.028350	0.050597	0.054008	0.046081	0.038700	0.029978	0.025664	0.021051	30
21	0.024014	0.024533	0.021027	0.027872	0.047402	0.049442	0.042249	0.035644	0.028379	0.024248	0.019852	31
22	0.026125	0.026489	0.021845	0.027612	0.044509	0.045132	0.038651	0.032865	0.026781	0.022839	0.018492	32
23	0.028126	0.028431	0.022762	0.027431	0.041979	0.041201	0.035486	0.030660	0.025335	0.021648	0.017147	33
24	0.029742	0.030112	0.023585	0.027326	0.039643	0.037895	0.033109	0.029006	0.024246	0.020920	0.016022	34

25	0.031242	0.031493	0.024047	0.026775	0.037594	0.035444	0.031220	0.028039	0.023647	0.020535	0.015412	35
26	0.032796	0.032693	0.024279	0.026139	0.035768	0.033699	0.029790	0.027275	0.023502	0.020390	0.015286	36
27	0.034495	0.033866	0.024617	0.025274	0.034185	0.032414	0.028761	0.026538	0.023590	0.020301	0.015271	37
28	0.036233	0.035136	0.024962	0.024530	0.032641	0.031332	0.028134	0.025962	0.023786	0.020275	0.015233	38
29	0.037977	0.036041	0.025189	0.024040	0.031210	0.030401	0.027539	0.025697	0.023993	0.020474	0.015515	39

30	0.039505	0.036643	0.025266	0.023656	0.030051	0.029654	0.026774	0.025681	0.023989	0.020649	0.016115	40
31	0.041028	0.037230	0.025512	0.023391	0.029239	0.029148	0.026058	0.025814	0.023653	0.020876	0.016376	41
32	0.042508	0.038004	0.025798	0.023006	0.028470	0.028988	0.025732	0.025673	0.023280	0.021151	0.016495	42
33	0.043497	0.038637	0.025976	0.022607	0.027667	0.028786	0.025478	0.025357	0.023250	0.021352	0.016844	43
34	0.044961	0.039150	0.026124	0.022541	0.026838	0.028473	0.025382	0.024859	0.023296	0.021439	0.017240	44

35	0.046672	0.039545	0.026317	0.022267	0.026232	0.028132	0.025408	0.024293	0.023052	0.021473	0.017312	45
36	0.047992	0.040393	0.026491	0.022065	0.026179	0.027703	0.025431	0.023763	0.022365	0.021453	0.017488	46
37	0.049220	0.041340	0.026830	0.022147	0.026533	0.027334	0.025236	0.023422	0.021703	0.021468	0.017956	47
38	0.051410	0.042130	0.027171	0.022312	0.026623	0.027108	0.025098	0.023336	0.021292	0.021324	0.018526	48
39	0.053361	0.042508	0.027580	0.022342	0.026569	0.026968	0.025312	0.023403	0.021281	0.021175	0.018598	49

40	0.055105	0.042856	0.027726	0.022279	0.026444	0.026865	0.025546	0.023544	0.021635	0.021184	0.018758	50
41	0.057005	0.043269	0.027594	0.022394	0.026475	0.026306	0.025550	0.023780	0.022393	0.021663	0.019157	51
42	0.059177	0.043607	0.027424	0.022636	0.026316	0.025590	0.025411	0.024103	0.023341	0.022576	0.019785	52
43	0.060686	0.044087	0.027413	0.022933	0.026193	0.024876	0.024939	0.024207	0.024145	0.023763	0.020878	53
44	0.062305	0.044649	0.027840	0.023333	0.026439	0.024914	0.024568	0.024321	0.025011	0.024735	0.022019	54

45	0.064157	0.045445	0.028419	0.023691	0.026777	0.025242	0.024431	0.024803	0.025827	0.025855	0.023069	55
46	0.065643	0.045802	0.028646	0.024109	0.026738	0.025862	0.024602	0.025520	0.026474	0.026807	0.023741	56
47	0.066688	0.045825	0.028888	0.024258	0.026356	0.026375	0.025108	0.026273	0.027151	0.027607	0.024640	57
48	0.066993	0.045204	0.028942	0.024709	0.026097	0.026743	0.025879	0.026678	0.027750	0.028440	0.025981	58
49	0.066292	0.044203	0.029133	0.025218	0.026117	0.026903	0.026577	0.027285	0.028406	0.029168	0.027505	59

50	0.065222	0.043745	0.029378	0.025517	0.026554	0.027202	0.027290	0.027984	0.029130	0.029946	0.028883	60
51	0.067237	0.044754	0.029985	0.026516	0.027236	0.028145	0.028551	0.029112	0.030483	0.030992	0.030052	61
52	0.069077	0.045933	0.030844	0.027758	0.028698	0.029708	0.030275	0.030717	0.032009	0.031841	0.030781	62
53	0.070093	0.046137	0.031905	0.028715	0.030365	0.031146	0.031904	0.032197	0.033166	0.031584	0.028827	63
54	0.068631	0.045661	0.032276	0.029598	0.031816	0.032576	0.032864	0.032781	0.032775	0.030447	0.022952	64

55	0.067472	0.045369	0.033245	0.030643	0.032986	0.033574	0.033324	0.032374	0.031227	0.029708	--	65
56	0.068936	0.046680	0.035263	0.032392	0.034320	0.034033	0.032930	0.030858	0.029988	--	--	66
57	0.071001	0.048720	0.037780	0.034675	0.035040	0.033656	0.031423	0.029540	--	--	--	67
58	0.073645	0.050948	0.039457	0.036245	0.034823	0.031961	0.029999	--	--	--	--	68
59	0.076892	0.053585	0.041117	0.036481	0.033249	0.030362	--	--	--	--	--	69

60	0.081156	0.056412	0.042103	0.035101	0.031210	--	--	--	--	--	--	70
61	0.088398	0.060095	0.042150	0.033608	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	71
62	0.093441	0.061923	0.041426	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	72
63	0.095465	0.062488	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	73
64	0.092417	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	74

Notes:
(1) Probability of decrement

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July 30, 1999