ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 117
The following table presents the plot points for Figure IV.11--
Real Interest Rate, Calendar Years 1960-2078
Plot points--Historical
Year
Actual
1960
1.352
1961
2.698
1962
2.725
1963
2.596
1964
2.871
1965
2.626
1966
1.954
1967
2.203
1968
1.313
1969
1.158
1970
1.499
1971
1.662
1972
2.633
1973
0.503
1974
-3.041
1975
-1.489
1976
1.478
1977
0.670
1978
0.709
1979
-1.887
1980
-1.929
1981
3.200
1982
6.794
1983
8.055
1984
9.048
1985
7.271
1986
6.497
1987
4.800
1988
4.854
1989
3.842
1990
3.365
1991
3.922
1992
4.176
1993
3.240
1994
4.539
1995
4.052
1996
3.668
1997
4.389
1998
4.314
1999
3.630
2000
2.774
2001
2.491
2002
3.517
Plot points--Projected
Year
Expected
Alternative II
95%
Confidence Interval
for annual values
95%
Confidence Interval
for cumulative average
Lower bound
Upper bound
Lower bound
Upper bound
2003
1.785
—
—
—
—
2004
3.234
0.800
5.689
0.800
5.689
2005
3.295
-0.504
7.052
0.347
6.125
2006
3.165
-1.260
7.503
0.086
6.279
2007
3.139
-1.553
7.945
-0.047
6.327
2008
3.105
-1.862
8.117
-0.050
6.392
2009
3.070
-1.900
8.270
-0.037
6.346
2010
3.029
-2.126
8.178
0.001
6.239
2011
3.022
-1.981
8.278
0.056
6.207
2012
3.004
-2.182
8.206
0.153
6.022
2013
3.007
-2.299
8.240
0.245
5.917
2014
3.000
-2.381
8.492
0.364
5.811
2015
3.000
-2.441
8.385
0.460
5.664
2016
3.000
-2.243
8.377
0.549
5.560
2017
3.000
-2.152
8.287
0.621
5.461
2018
3.000
-2.329
8.613
0.679
5.358
2019
3.000
-2.433
8.514
0.763
5.277
2020
3.000
-2.298
8.507
0.868
5.213
2021
3.000
-2.150
8.600
0.920
5.105
2022
3.000
-2.090
8.418
0.986
5.064
2023
3.000
-2.194
8.263
1.031
4.981
2024
3.000
-2.116
8.097
1.064
4.915
2025
3.000
-2.084
8.133
1.126
4.843
2026
3.000
-2.303
8.367
1.166
4.754
2027
3.000
-2.330
8.193
1.243
4.691
2028
3.000
-2.271
8.232
1.262
4.611
2029
3.000
-2.139
8.468
1.293
4.578
2030
3.000
-2.176
8.582
1.347
4.552
2031
3.000
-2.288
8.610
1.399
4.547
2032
3.000
-2.239
8.406
1.455
4.521
2033
3.000
-2.122
8.391
1.496
4.525
2034
3.000
-2.329
8.323
1.540
4.500
2035
3.000
-2.241
8.384
1.579
4.475
2036
3.000
-2.143
8.210
1.612
4.434
2037
3.000
-2.236
8.265
1.613
4.415
2038
3.000
-2.239
8.356
1.655
4.390
2039
3.000
-2.258
8.158
1.679
4.382
2040
3.000
-2.207
8.158
1.708
4.363
2041
3.000
-2.161
8.213
1.721
4.338
2042
3.000
-2.149
8.247
1.731
4.302
2043
3.000
-2.065
8.145
1.758
4.267
2044
3.000
-2.042
8.178
1.774
4.234
2045
3.000
-2.064
8.368
1.791
4.225
2046
3.000
-2.190
8.424
1.800
4.210
2047
3.000
-2.107
8.361
1.809
4.177
2048
3.000
-2.165
8.453
1.828
4.173
2049
3.000
-2.274
8.416
1.840
4.170
2050
3.000
-2.068
8.372
1.857
4.158
2051
3.000
-2.152
8.348
1.889
4.159
2052
3.000
-2.153
8.375
1.903
4.146
2053
3.000
-2.127
8.205
1.907
4.128
2054
3.000
-2.258
8.302
1.908
4.107
2055
3.000
-2.308
8.331
1.913
4.105
2056
3.000
-2.175
8.245
1.923
4.089
2057
3.000
-2.120
8.131
1.931
4.081
2058
3.000
-2.061
8.386
1.938
4.081
2059
3.000
-2.220
8.297
1.962
4.073
2060
3.000
-2.236
8.353
1.986
4.045
2061
3.000
-2.283
8.296
1.996
4.036
2062
3.000
-2.444
8.328
2.011
4.036
2063
3.000
-2.196
8.410
2.025
4.021
2064
3.000
-2.263
8.247
2.033
4.011
2065
3.000
-2.404
8.274
2.033
4.002
2066
3.000
-2.292
8.551
2.039
4.002
2067
3.000
-2.203
8.376
2.036
3.977
2068
3.000
-2.126
8.291
2.058
3.957
2069
3.000
-2.039
8.454
2.068
3.949
2070
3.000
-2.021
8.384
2.081
3.950
2071
3.000
-2.138
8.368
2.090
3.933
2072
3.000
-2.267
8.481
2.079
3.920
2073
3.000
-2.353
8.348
2.095
3.911
2074
3.000
-2.359
8.301
2.103
3.903
2075
3.000
-2.358
8.193
2.104
3.888
2076
3.000
-2.342
8.356
2.111
3.874
2077
3.000
-2.301
8.394
2.119
3.857
2078
3.000
-2.282
8.305
2.118
3.857