ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 117
The following table presents the plot points for Figure IV.15--
Male Disability Recovery Rate, Calendar Years 1986-2078
Plot points--Historical
Year
Actual
1986
8.023
1987
13.138
1988
13.047
1989
9.479
1990
9.505
1991
7.854
1992
8.160
1993
7.332
1994
8.227
1995
10.044
1996
10.323
1997
24.428
1998
9.866
1999
11.434
2000
13.492
2001
12.758
2002
11.582
2003
11.159
Plot points--Projected
Year
Expected
Alternative II
95%
Confidence Interval
for annual values
95%
Confidence Interval
for cumulative average
Lower bound
Upper bound
Lower bound
Upper bound
2004
14.015
10.526
17.343
10.526
17.343
2005
14.795
10.935
18.600
11.191
17.519
2006
15.984
11.998
19.994
11.919
17.833
2007
16.045
11.887
20.102
12.311
18.024
2008
17.571
13.507
21.673
12.895
18.476
2009
17.777
13.778
21.955
13.403
18.692
2010
18.031
13.792
22.242
13.802
18.883
2011
18.320
14.320
22.438
14.131
19.000
2012
18.618
14.476
22.762
14.437
19.170
2013
18.942
14.876
23.037
14.743
19.270
2014
18.146
14.058
22.305
14.942
19.258
2015
17.357
13.274
21.558
15.070
19.185
2016
16.560
12.379
20.720
15.099
19.114
2017
15.710
11.577
19.856
15.052
18.961
2018
14.833
10.792
18.859
14.970
18.754
2019
13.955
9.947
18.125
14.844
18.547
2020
13.082
9.048
17.141
14.683
18.311
2021
12.194
8.150
16.274
14.507
18.031
2022
11.266
7.008
15.296
14.281
17.727
2023
10.328
6.191
14.357
14.031
17.407
2024
10.325
6.289
14.440
13.833
17.103
2025
10.321
6.310
14.397
13.659
16.816
2026
10.308
6.215
14.410
13.484
16.565
2027
10.275
6.257
14.386
13.319
16.330
2028
10.236
6.217
14.345
13.162
16.117
2029
10.197
6.158
14.299
13.012
15.919
2030
10.169
5.987
14.299
12.870
15.739
2031
10.136
5.897
14.103
12.733
15.547
2032
10.094
5.963
14.254
12.616
15.388
2033
10.050
5.937
14.157
12.503
15.236
2034
10.007
5.888
14.153
12.407
15.092
2035
9.984
5.884
14.084
12.310
14.950
2036
9.969
5.956
13.980
12.201
14.831
2037
9.949
5.835
13.998
12.112
14.715
2038
9.928
5.870
13.959
12.044
14.601
2039
9.912
5.822
13.906
11.972
14.485
2040
9.903
5.748
13.988
11.899
14.374
2041
9.898
5.787
13.890
11.831
14.277
2042
9.896
5.984
13.848
11.755
14.173
2043
9.880
5.782
13.771
11.711
14.076
2044
9.869
5.720
13.874
11.647
13.991
2045
9.860
5.737
13.994
11.573
13.909
2046
9.861
5.718
13.996
11.522
13.827
2047
9.867
5.900
13.923
11.465
13.758
2048
9.860
5.929
13.987
11.402
13.687
2049
9.854
5.789
13.919
11.359
13.608
2050
9.849
5.756
13.954
11.319
13.543
2051
9.853
5.908
13.900
11.284
13.478
2052
9.857
5.768
14.001
11.239
13.422
2053
9.852
5.616
14.082
11.207
13.365
2054
9.845
5.777
13.803
11.158
13.302
2055
9.836
5.844
13.896
11.119
13.244
2056
9.839
5.762
14.012
11.091
13.187
2057
9.843
5.761
13.981
11.057
13.136
2058
9.840
5.808
13.976
11.028
13.082
2059
9.836
5.765
14.125
11.005
13.026
2060
9.838
5.892
13.973
10.982
12.986
2061
9.835
5.811
13.940
10.956
12.948
2062
9.838
5.677
13.909
10.920
12.910
2063
9.834
5.787
13.902
10.897
12.867
2064
9.829
5.887
13.903
10.863
12.826
2065
9.828
5.741
14.067
10.837
12.790
2066
9.826
5.847
14.065
10.816
12.754
2067
9.829
5.679
13.936
10.797
12.714
2068
9.829
5.686
13.904
10.781
12.691
2069
9.828
5.752
14.112
10.765
12.654
2070
9.825
5.746
13.933
10.746
12.614
2071
9.826
5.786
13.817
10.730
12.580
2072
9.825
5.746
13.889
10.714
12.547
2073
9.824
5.744
13.840
10.700
12.514
2074
9.822
5.768
13.865
10.685
12.475
2075
9.825
5.711
13.929
10.663
12.455
2076
9.823
5.803
13.920
10.639
12.421
2077
9.821
5.722
13.890
10.618
12.400
2078
9.819
5.769
13.850
10.595
12.369