Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2005
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119 by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker

Table of Contents

I. BACKGROUND 1

II. ASSUMPTIONS 2

A. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS 2

1. Productivity Assumptions 2

2. Price Inflation Assumptions 2

3. Average Earnings Assumptions 3

4. Assumed Real-Wage Differentials 3

5. Labor Force and Unemployment Projections 4

6. Gross Domestic Product Projections 4

7. Interest Rate Projections 4

B. AUTOMATICALLY ADJUSTED PROGRAM AMOUNTS 5

C. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS 6

1. Fertility Rate 6

2. Death Rate 6

3. Life Expectancy 6

4. Immigration 7

D. PROGRAMMATIC ASSUMPTIONS 7

1. Covered Workers and Coverage Rate 7

2. Fully Insured 7

3. Disability Insured 8

4. Disability Incidence Rate 8

5. Disability Termination Rate 8

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS 18

A. NUMBER OF DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) BENEFICIARIES 18

1. Awards and Incidence Rates 19

2. Terminations 21

3. In Force 23

4. Withheld (Suspensions) 23

5. Current-Payment Status 23

6. Dependents of Disabled Workers 23

B. NUMBER OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) BENEFICIARIES 58

1. Fully Insured Beneficiaries Aged 60 or Older 58

a. In Force 58

b. Awards: Establishing the Fully Insured Population 58

c. Awards: Establishing Retirement Rates 58

d. Withheld 59

e. Current-Payment Status 59

f. Semiannual Retired Worker Projections 59

2. Minor Children 60

3. Disabled Children 60

4. Student Children 61

5. Semiannual Child Projections 61

6. Young Spouses 61

7. Mothers and Fathers 61

8. Semiannual Young Spouses and Mothers and Fathers 62

9. Disabled Widows and Widowers 62

10. Uninsured Aged Spouses 62

11. Uninsured Aged Widows and Widowers 63

12. Parents 63

13. Special Age-72 Beneficiaries 63

14. OASDI Beneficiaries 64

C. AVERAGE BENEFIT AT AWARD 160

1. Sample Data 160

2. Sample Composition 160

3. Simulated Samples 160

4. Simulated Earnings 160

5. Earnings Prior to 1951 161

6. Benefit Calculations 161

7. Results 162

D. DISABILITY INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS 168

1. Average Benefit 168

2. Benefits In Current-Payment Status 168

3. Benefits In Non-Current-Payment Status 168

E. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS 192

1. Average Benefit 192

2. Benefits In Current-Payment Status 192

3. Benefits In Non-Current-Payment Status 193

4. Lump-Sum Death Benefits 194

5. Dual-Entitlement Benefits 194

6. Quarterly Benefit Payments 194

IV. TRUST FUND INCOME AND OUTGO 231

A. TRUST FUND INCOME 231

1. FICA and SECA 231

2. State Deposits 231

3. Adjustments 231

4. Refunds 231

5. Taxation of Benefits 231

6. Military Service Payments 232

7. Benefits to Uninsured Persons 233

8. Interest 233

B. TRUST FUND OUTGO 235

1. Unnegotiated Checks 235

2. Vocational Rehabilitation 235

3. Railroad Board Interchange 235

4. Administrative Expenses 236

C. TRUST FUND PROGRESS 236

1. OASI Trust Fund 237

2. DI Trust Fund 237

V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS 257

A. LOW COST ASSUMPTIONS 257

B. HIGH COST ASSUMPTIONS 268

APPENDICES

A. DETERMINATION OF THE WAGE BASE 281

B. SCHEDULED INCREASES IN NORMAL RETIREMENT AGE (NRA) 282

C. DISABLED WORKER INCIDENCE AND AWARDS 283

D. DISABLED WORKER ADJUSTED INCIDENCE RATE 284

E. DISABLED WORKER TERMINATIONS 285

F. AVERAGE AGE OF DISABLED WORKERS 286

G. DISABLED WORKER PROJECTION BY SINGLE-YEAR-OF-AGE 287

H. GLOSSARY 288

Return to list of Studies.