2016 OASDI Trustees Report

2016 Trustees Report

 

The following table presents the plot points for Figure VI.E1 — The probability distribution of the year-by-year (2016-2090) combined OASI and DI cost rates as a percentage of taxable payroll. The income rate under the intermediate assumptions is also included in the graph in order to give some indication of the patterns of cash flow for the OASDI program. The column headings represent the percent of the 5,000 simulations with values less than or equal to the cost rate shown in the table.

 

Plot points

Calendar year	OASDI income rate	OASDI cost rates
		2.5%	10%	20%	30%	40%	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	97.5%
2016	12.94%	13.43%	13.66%	13.79%	13.88%	13.96%	14.04%	14.11%	14.19%	14.28%	14.42%	14.63%
2017	12.92%	12.75%	13.12%	13.34%	13.50%	13.63%	13.75%	13.88%	14.01%	14.17%	14.40%	14.76%
2018	12.96%	12.72%	13.13%	13.39%	13.56%	13.72%	13.86%	14.01%	14.17%	14.36%	14.63%	15.07%
2019	12.97%	12.77%	13.20%	13.47%	13.66%	13.83%	13.99%	14.16%	14.34%	14.55%	14.87%	15.37%
2020	12.98%	12.82%	13.27%	13.55%	13.76%	13.95%	14.14%	14.31%	14.50%	14.75%	15.10%	15.68%
2021	13.00%	12.85%	13.32%	13.64%	13.88%	14.09%	14.29%	14.45%	14.67%	14.93%	15.31%	15.88%
2022	13.03%	12.95%	13.47%	13.82%	14.07%	14.28%	14.48%	14.69%	14.93%	15.20%	15.58%	16.18%
2023	13.06%	13.13%	13.69%	14.05%	14.31%	14.54%	14.75%	14.96%	15.21%	15.50%	15.91%	16.57%
2024	13.09%	13.37%	13.91%	14.28%	14.55%	14.78%	15.00%	15.23%	15.48%	15.80%	16.22%	16.94%
2025	13.11%	13.54%	14.13%	14.52%	14.80%	15.03%	15.27%	15.50%	15.75%	16.08%	16.54%	17.24%
2026	13.13%	13.65%	14.28%	14.67%	14.96%	15.21%	15.45%	15.72%	16.00%	16.31%	16.77%	17.50%
2027	13.14%	13.83%	14.44%	14.82%	15.14%	15.39%	15.66%	15.90%	16.17%	16.51%	16.96%	17.78%
2028	13.16%	13.98%	14.56%	15.00%	15.29%	15.54%	15.80%	16.06%	16.36%	16.69%	17.17%	17.98%
2029	13.17%	14.10%	14.72%	15.11%	15.40%	15.70%	15.94%	16.21%	16.51%	16.87%	17.31%	18.19%
2030	13.18%	14.16%	14.81%	15.25%	15.53%	15.80%	16.08%	16.36%	16.64%	17.01%	17.50%	18.34%
2031	13.19%	14.19%	14.88%	15.32%	15.65%	15.92%	16.20%	16.47%	16.79%	17.14%	17.63%	18.57%
2032	13.20%	14.31%	14.96%	15.41%	15.73%	16.04%	16.31%	16.60%	16.89%	17.27%	17.82%	18.70%
2033	13.21%	14.35%	15.01%	15.47%	15.81%	16.11%	16.40%	16.68%	17.00%	17.37%	17.91%	18.84%
2034	13.21%	14.32%	15.02%	15.49%	15.86%	16.16%	16.47%	16.74%	17.08%	17.46%	17.99%	18.92%
2035	13.22%	14.39%	15.07%	15.53%	15.89%	16.21%	16.50%	16.76%	17.08%	17.47%	18.02%	18.90%
2036	13.22%	14.37%	15.13%	15.59%	15.94%	16.27%	16.56%	16.84%	17.17%	17.54%	18.12%	19.00%
2037	13.23%	14.39%	15.16%	15.62%	15.99%	16.28%	16.58%	16.88%	17.22%	17.61%	18.18%	19.12%
2038	13.23%	14.41%	15.14%	15.61%	15.99%	16.30%	16.61%	16.90%	17.26%	17.65%	18.24%	19.17%
2039	13.23%	14.37%	15.13%	15.62%	15.97%	16.28%	16.57%	16.87%	17.23%	17.66%	18.24%	19.29%
2040	13.23%	14.32%	15.08%	15.57%	15.94%	16.26%	16.58%	16.89%	17.24%	17.66%	18.28%	19.24%
2041	13.23%	14.29%	15.03%	15.54%	15.91%	16.23%	16.52%	16.86%	17.23%	17.65%	18.28%	19.24%
2042	13.23%	14.17%	14.99%	15.50%	15.89%	16.20%	16.51%	16.82%	17.19%	17.66%	18.29%	19.28%
2043	13.23%	14.13%	14.95%	15.47%	15.84%	16.17%	16.52%	16.83%	17.21%	17.66%	18.35%	19.24%
2044	13.23%	14.04%	14.88%	15.42%	15.80%	16.14%	16.48%	16.81%	17.20%	17.67%	18.28%	19.26%
2045	13.23%	13.97%	14.79%	15.36%	15.77%	16.14%	16.46%	16.79%	17.17%	17.64%	18.32%	19.37%
2046	13.23%	13.90%	14.75%	15.30%	15.72%	16.09%	16.43%	16.76%	17.16%	17.62%	18.31%	19.44%
2047	13.23%	13.85%	14.68%	15.23%	15.65%	16.01%	16.36%	16.74%	17.13%	17.61%	18.36%	19.56%
2048	13.23%	13.76%	14.59%	15.17%	15.64%	16.00%	16.35%	16.74%	17.16%	17.64%	18.36%	19.64%
2049	13.23%	13.71%	14.58%	15.17%	15.61%	16.00%	16.36%	16.74%	17.19%	17.73%	18.47%	19.76%
2050	13.23%	13.66%	14.54%	15.11%	15.57%	15.97%	16.35%	16.76%	17.21%	17.73%	18.50%	19.79%
2051	13.23%	13.60%	14.49%	15.10%	15.56%	15.98%	16.37%	16.78%	17.23%	17.75%	18.53%	19.82%
2052	13.23%	13.54%	14.44%	15.11%	15.56%	16.00%	16.39%	16.80%	17.25%	17.81%	18.58%	19.99%
2053	13.24%	13.59%	14.45%	15.10%	15.54%	16.00%	16.43%	16.83%	17.30%	17.86%	18.69%	20.22%
2054	13.24%	13.46%	14.43%	15.10%	15.59%	16.02%	16.45%	16.93%	17.40%	17.97%	18.81%	20.46%
2055	13.24%	13.43%	14.40%	15.11%	15.63%	16.05%	16.51%	16.98%	17.45%	18.06%	18.98%	20.60%
2056	13.25%	13.40%	14.41%	15.14%	15.65%	16.14%	16.56%	17.04%	17.55%	18.13%	19.09%	20.69%
2057	13.25%	13.41%	14.44%	15.15%	15.71%	16.17%	16.60%	17.09%	17.63%	18.26%	19.19%	20.71%
2058	13.25%	13.40%	14.50%	15.21%	15.73%	16.22%	16.65%	17.14%	17.70%	18.36%	19.30%	20.98%
2059	13.26%	13.49%	14.48%	15.23%	15.74%	16.22%	16.70%	17.19%	17.75%	18.43%	19.46%	21.13%
2060	13.26%	13.49%	14.50%	15.22%	15.77%	16.27%	16.74%	17.28%	17.86%	18.52%	19.53%	21.34%
2061	13.27%	13.48%	14.52%	15.26%	15.82%	16.36%	16.83%	17.36%	17.96%	18.66%	19.67%	21.42%
2062	13.27%	13.45%	14.51%	15.31%	15.85%	16.41%	16.86%	17.44%	18.07%	18.77%	19.77%	21.61%
2063	13.27%	13.44%	14.57%	15.34%	15.90%	16.45%	16.97%	17.52%	18.09%	18.84%	19.88%	21.63%
2064	13.28%	13.47%	14.61%	15.34%	15.93%	16.50%	17.02%	17.57%	18.16%	18.91%	19.99%	21.79%
2065	13.28%	13.44%	14.59%	15.36%	15.97%	16.53%	17.06%	17.61%	18.19%	18.99%	20.05%	21.98%
2066	13.28%	13.52%	14.61%	15.42%	16.03%	16.57%	17.08%	17.67%	18.30%	19.07%	20.15%	22.10%
2067	13.29%	13.51%	14.65%	15.47%	16.10%	16.65%	17.14%	17.73%	18.39%	19.17%	20.30%	22.35%
2068	13.29%	13.51%	14.71%	15.53%	16.13%	16.69%	17.24%	17.82%	18.45%	19.27%	20.43%	22.56%
2069	13.29%	13.55%	14.69%	15.56%	16.18%	16.73%	17.35%	17.94%	18.59%	19.38%	20.59%	22.75%
2070	13.30%	13.50%	14.74%	15.58%	16.25%	16.85%	17.41%	18.03%	18.71%	19.52%	20.73%	22.96%
2071	13.30%	13.50%	14.72%	15.59%	16.26%	16.86%	17.47%	18.10%	18.77%	19.59%	20.90%	23.19%
2072	13.30%	13.46%	14.76%	15.59%	16.29%	16.91%	17.50%	18.12%	18.84%	19.70%	20.97%	23.17%
2073	13.31%	13.50%	14.75%	15.64%	16.28%	16.93%	17.49%	18.14%	18.88%	19.75%	21.05%	23.27%
2074	13.31%	13.55%	14.72%	15.65%	16.32%	16.91%	17.50%	18.14%	18.92%	19.82%	21.13%	23.43%
2075	13.31%	13.52%	14.76%	15.67%	16.32%	16.95%	17.54%	18.24%	18.96%	19.84%	21.22%	23.61%
2076	13.31%	13.49%	14.74%	15.65%	16.31%	16.97%	17.61%	18.24%	18.98%	19.93%	21.32%	23.73%
2077	13.31%	13.38%	14.69%	15.63%	16.33%	16.97%	17.64%	18.27%	19.04%	19.99%	21.52%	23.86%
2078	13.31%	13.34%	14.68%	15.60%	16.36%	17.01%	17.63%	18.30%	19.09%	20.03%	21.58%	24.17%
2079	13.31%	13.33%	14.63%	15.63%	16.35%	17.03%	17.67%	18.37%	19.15%	20.07%	21.65%	24.21%
2080	13.31%	13.33%	14.60%	15.58%	16.38%	17.00%	17.70%	18.38%	19.16%	20.18%	21.60%	24.33%
2081	13.31%	13.22%	14.60%	15.61%	16.36%	17.04%	17.71%	18.42%	19.22%	20.18%	21.63%	24.37%
2082	13.31%	13.21%	14.62%	15.57%	16.36%	17.10%	17.76%	18.45%	19.22%	20.23%	21.69%	24.56%
2083	13.31%	13.25%	14.62%	15.61%	16.36%	17.05%	17.75%	18.45%	19.27%	20.29%	21.84%	24.58%
2084	13.31%	13.25%	14.61%	15.60%	16.41%	17.08%	17.77%	18.44%	19.31%	20.39%	21.90%	24.80%
2085	13.32%	13.32%	14.66%	15.64%	16.41%	17.12%	17.80%	18.51%	19.33%	20.36%	22.03%	24.84%
2086	13.32%	13.30%	14.66%	15.67%	16.45%	17.15%	17.85%	18.54%	19.40%	20.42%	22.11%	24.99%
2087	13.32%	13.28%	14.69%	15.70%	16.45%	17.19%	17.88%	18.59%	19.43%	20.44%	22.07%	25.07%
2088	13.32%	13.33%	14.66%	15.73%	16.48%	17.24%	17.91%	18.61%	19.51%	20.55%	22.14%	25.14%
2089	13.33%	13.32%	14.74%	15.76%	16.55%	17.27%	17.95%	18.71%	19.59%	20.64%	22.22%	25.08%
2090	13.33%	13.30%	14.84%	15.82%	16.61%	17.30%	18.01%	18.76%	19.64%	20.69%	22.39%	25.11%

RETURN TO TRUSTEES REPORT.