Table VI.G4 shows non-interest income, total cost, and the resulting balance of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, of the HI Trust Fund, and of the combined OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds, expressed as percentages of GDP on the basis of each of the three alternative sets of assumptions. Table
VI.G4 also contains estimates of GDP. For OASDI, non-interest income consists of
payroll tax contributions, proceeds from
taxation of benefits, and
reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury, if any. Cost consists of
scheduled benefits,
administrative expenses, financial interchange with the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for
vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. For HI, non-interest income consists of payroll tax contributions (including contributions from railroad employment), up to an additional 0.9 percent tax on earned income for relatively high earners, proceeds from taxation of OASDI benefits, premium revenues, monies from fraud and abuse control activities,
and reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury, if any. Cost consists of outlays (benefits and administrative expenses) for beneficiaries. The Trustees show income and cost estimates generally on a cash basis for the OASDI program
1 and on an incurred basis for the HI program.
The summarized long-range (75-year) balance as a percentage of GDP for the combined OASDI and HI programs varies among the three alternatives by a relatively large amount, from a positive balance of 0.64 percent under the low-cost assumptions to a deficit of 4.05 percent under the high-cost assumptions. The 25-year summarized balance varies by a smaller amount, from a positive balance of 0.30 percent to a deficit of 2.19 percent. Summarized rates are calculated on a present-value basis. They include the trust fund balances on January 1, 2016 and the cost of reaching a target trust fund level equal to 100 percent of the following year’s annual cost at the end of the period. (See section
IV.B.4 for further explanation.)
To compare trust fund operations expressed as percentages of taxable payroll and those expressed as percentages of GDP, table VI.G5 displays ratios of OASDI taxable payroll to GDP. HI taxable payroll is about 25 percent larger than the OASDI taxable payroll throughout the long-range period; see section 1 of this appendix for a detailed description of the difference. The cost as a percentage of GDP is equal to the cost as a percentage of taxable payroll multiplied by the ratio of taxable payroll to GDP.
