2018 OASDI Trustees Report

 

The following table presents the plot points for Figure V.C5 — Comparison of DI Disabled-Worker Incidence Rates, Termination Rates and Conversion Ratios Under Intermediate Assumptions.

 

Historical values

Calendar year	Incidence rates			Termination rates			Conversion ratios
	Gross rates	Age-sex-adjusted rates		Gross rates	Age-sex-adjusted rates		Gross ratios	Age-sex-adjusted ratios
1970	4.82	4.38		92.51	90.17		71.26	40.58
1971	5.56	5.10		88.42	86.19		68.37	40.58
1972	5.96	5.50		80.53	78.50		66.87	40.58
1973	6.31	5.90		83.41	81.30		68.06	40.58
1974	6.67	6.43		74.86	72.97		66.80	40.58
1975	7.13	7.04		73.47	71.62		64.10	40.58
1976	6.52	6.49		72.58	70.91		64.23	40.58
1977	6.60	6.64		74.53	74.36		66.22	40.58
1978	5.51	5.80		81.78	86.03		66.20	40.58
1979	4.73	5.11		81.23	86.03		70.07	40.58
1980	4.36	4.80		77.31	81.14		68.05	40.58
1981	3.86	4.18		87.94	95.91		67.65	40.58
1982	3.35	3.70		105.59	120.95		70.30	40.58
1983	4.22	4.71		97.69	110.58		71.43	40.58
1984	3.98	4.34		72.13	72.75		69.29	40.58
1985	3.96	4.34		59.94	57.48		69.38	40.58
1986	3.96	4.30		57.95	54.74		67.71	40.58
1987	3.84	4.21		63.08	60.51		62.64	40.58
1988	3.72	4.11		64.36	62.51		60.27	40.58
1989	3.79	4.21		59.19	56.37		60.58	40.58
1990	4.08	4.53		57.34	55.32		57.53	40.58
1991	4.62	5.09		55.77	54.04		54.07	40.58
1992	5.43	5.90		54.58	52.89		51.43	40.58
1993	5.35	5.75		53.17	51.79		47.47	40.58
1994	5.24	5.60		52.78	51.52		44.10	40.58
1995	5.29	5.61		53.15	51.82		43.71	40.58
1996	5.04	5.30		50.12	49.18		41.70	40.58
1997	4.67	4.87		57.82	56.67		41.65	40.58
1998	4.76	4.89		45.51	45.30		39.97	40.58
1999	4.78	4.84		46.32	46.19		41.06	40.58
2000	4.71	4.71		48.04	48.04		40.58	40.58
2001	5.15	5.08		45.04	45.17		39.67	40.58
2002	5.54	5.36		45.26	45.50		39.47	40.58
2003	5.70	5.40		42.44	42.49		33.34	33.82
2004	5.80	5.38		41.61	41.53		32.14	33.82
2005	5.99	5.47		42.97	42.90		31.79	33.82
2006	5.75	5.19		40.02	40.14		32.72	33.82
2007	5.80	5.16		38.17	38.08		33.67	33.82
2008	6.27	5.51		38.40	38.18		35.71	33.82
2009	6.94	6.04		36.90	36.58		42.99	40.58
2010	7.42	6.37		36.92	36.82		40.68	40.58
2011	7.24	6.07		35.94	35.82		39.09	40.58
2012	7.00	5.80		36.34	36.24		44.94	40.58
2013	6.31	5.16		34.50	34.27		49.61	40.58
2014	5.74	4.66		36.54	36.99		49.09	40.58
2015	5.46	4.40		38.01	39.08		50.37	40.58
2016	5.19	4.17		39.06	40.80		51.31	40.58
2017	5.25	4.25		41.14	43.63		54.38	40.58

 

Projected values

Calendar year	Incidence rates			Termination rates			Conversion ratios
	Gross rates	Age-sex-adjusted rates		Gross rates	Age-sex-adjusted rates		Gross ratios	Age-sex-adjusted ratios
2018	5.69	4.64		38.94	40.51		56.64	40.58
2019	5.91	4.85		36.86	37.60		58.38	40.58
2020	5.94	4.90		36.38	36.92		61.03	40.58
2021	5.98	4.97		36.14	36.65		51.63	33.82
2022	6.05	5.03		35.60	35.94		52.87	33.82
2023	6.11	5.09		35.35	35.65		53.82	33.82
2024	6.24	5.20		35.13	35.43		53.92	33.82
2025	6.31	5.28		34.88	35.17		53.55	33.82
2026	6.35	5.35		34.63	34.91		54.16	33.82
2027	6.34	5.38		34.36	34.63		65.59	40.58
2028	6.32	5.40		34.07	34.33		65.51	40.58
2029	6.30	5.41		33.74	34.00		64.70	40.58
2030	6.29	5.41		33.42	33.67		64.18	40.58
2031	6.28	5.41		33.12	33.37		64.01	40.58
2032	6.27	5.41		32.80	33.06		60.78	40.58
2033	6.27	5.41		32.48	32.74		58.37	40.58
2034	6.25	5.40		32.14	32.43		57.19	40.58
2035	6.24	5.40		31.80	32.13		57.78	40.58
2036	6.24	5.39		31.45	31.82		58.76	40.58
2037	6.24	5.39		31.10	31.52		60.87	40.58
2038	6.26	5.39		30.79	31.24		58.53	40.58
2039	6.29	5.39		30.49	30.97		55.34	40.58
2040	6.32	5.40		30.20	30.70		52.88	40.58
2041	6.35	5.40		29.91	30.43		53.06	40.58
2042	6.37	5.40		29.63	30.18		52.55	40.58
2043	6.39	5.40		29.36	29.93		52.27	40.58
2044	6.41	5.40		29.08	29.69		53.74	40.58
2045	6.42	5.40		28.82	29.45		53.92	40.58
2046	6.42	5.40		28.56	29.22		55.37	40.58
2047	6.43	5.39		28.30	29.00		57.27	40.58
2048	6.43	5.39		28.06	28.78		56.24	40.58
2049	6.43	5.39		27.82	28.56		56.98	40.58
2050	6.43	5.39		27.59	28.34		55.83	40.58
2051	6.43	5.39		27.37	28.13		55.72	40.58
2052	6.43	5.39		27.15	27.93		56.62	40.58
2053	6.43	5.39		26.94	27.73		56.30	40.58
2054	6.42	5.39		26.73	27.53		56.57	40.58
2055	6.40	5.39		26.52	27.35		57.84	40.58
2056	6.39	5.39		26.31	27.15		59.28	40.58
2057	6.37	5.39		26.10	26.96		61.28	40.58
2058	6.36	5.39		25.90	26.79		61.12	40.58
2059	6.35	5.39		25.71	26.61		60.97	40.58
2060	6.34	5.39		25.52	26.43		60.12	40.58
2061	6.34	5.39		25.33	26.26		59.66	40.58
2062	6.34	5.39		25.14	26.09		59.37	40.58
2063	6.34	5.39		24.96	25.93		59.10	40.58
2064	6.33	5.39		24.78	25.76		58.66	40.58
2065	6.33	5.39		24.60	25.60		59.36	40.58
2066	6.33	5.39		24.43	25.44		59.37	40.58
2067	6.32	5.39		24.26	25.28		60.30	40.58
2068	6.31	5.39		24.10	25.12		59.34	40.58
2069	6.31	5.39		23.94	24.97		59.42	40.58
2070	6.29	5.39		23.77	24.82		60.12	40.58
2071	6.28	5.39		23.61	24.67		60.53	40.58
2072	6.26	5.39		23.45	24.52		61.15	40.58
2073	6.25	5.39		23.29	24.38		62.59	40.58
2074	6.24	5.39		23.13	24.23		63.63	40.58
2075	6.23	5.38		22.98	24.09		63.57	40.58
2076	6.23	5.38		22.83	23.95		61.68	40.58
2077	6.24	5.38		22.67	23.81		60.68	40.58
2078	6.24	5.38		22.52	23.68		59.30	40.58
2079	6.25	5.38		22.37	23.55		58.93	40.58
2080	6.27	5.38		22.22	23.41		58.26	40.58
2081	6.28	5.38		22.07	23.28		58.33	40.58
2082	6.30	5.38		21.92	23.15		57.50	40.58
2083	6.31	5.38		21.77	23.03		56.68	40.58
2084	6.33	5.38		21.62	22.90		56.16	40.58
2085	6.34	5.38		21.48	22.77		56.30	40.58
2086	6.35	5.38		21.34	22.65		56.48	40.58
2087	6.36	5.38		21.20	22.53		56.92	40.58
2088	6.37	5.38		21.06	22.41		57.57	40.58
2089	6.37	5.38		20.93	22.29		58.54	40.58
2090	6.37	5.38		20.80	22.18		59.62	40.58
2091	6.37	5.38		20.66	22.06		60.47	40.58
2092	6.36	5.38		20.54	21.95		61.10	40.58
2093	6.36	5.38		20.42	21.84		61.54	40.58
2094	6.35	5.38		20.30	21.73		61.89	40.58
2095	6.35	5.38		20.19	21.62		62.01	40.58

 

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