Principal Demographic Assumptions — 2018 OASDI Trustees Report

Table V.A1.- Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, ^a
Calendar Years 1940-2095
Historical data:
Calendar year	Total fertility rate ^b	Age-sex-adjusted death rate ^c per 100,000, by age
Calendar year	Total fertility rate ^b	Total	Under 65	65 and over
1940	2.23	1,919.8	750.1	9,718.8
1941	2.33	1,836.5	726.1	9,240.1
1942	2.55	1,776.7	703.0	8,935.3
1943	2.64	1,852.8	708.8	9,479.8
1944	2.49	1,763.8	685.6	8,952.5
1945	2.42	1,716.6	674.8	8,662.9
1946	2.86	1,664.4	641.2	8,485.9
1947	3.18	1,668.3	619.0	8,663.7
1948	3.03	1,633.0	604.8	8,488.3
1949	3.04	1,583.3	585.3	8,237.3
1950	3.03	1,561.9	570.2	8,173.7
1951	3.20	1,548.4	565.5	8,101.4
1952	3.29	1,518.8	558.8	7,919.5
1953	3.35	1,510.5	545.5	7,944.7
1954	3.46	1,433.4	514.9	7,557.2
1955	3.50	1,453.8	508.2	7,758.4
1956	3.60	1,455.4	506.8	7,780.4
1957	3.68	1,481.6	516.6	7,916.0
1958	3.63	1,467.9	506.1	7,880.1
1959	3.64	1,440.8	499.2	7,719.3
1960	3.61	1,454.3	503.2	7,795.4
1961	3.56	1,420.8	488.0	7,640.2
1962	3.42	1,448.5	493.7	7,814.1
1963	3.30	1,472.5	501.3	7,947.7
1964	3.17	1,426.0	496.5	7,622.9
1965	2.88	1,428.8	495.2	7,653.3
1966	2.67	1,431.8	497.1	7,663.7
1967	2.53	1,393.6	488.5	7,427.9
1968	2.43	1,418.1	500.8	7,534.0
1969	2.42	1,374.2	491.7	7,258.0
1970	2.43	1,340.0	485.7	7,036.3
1971	2.25	1,332.9	472.5	7,068.9
1972	1.99	1,328.0	470.4	7,045.8
1973	1.86	1,309.2	463.0	6,951.3
1974	1.82	1,255.6	443.6	6,668.9
1975	1.77	1,204.8	426.6	6,393.6
1976	1.74	1,195.1	416.1	6,389.1
1977	1.80	1,160.6	405.7	6,193.7
1978	1.76	1,155.1	399.0	6,196.8
1979	1.82	1,116.4	386.2	5,984.8
1980	1.82	1,136.9	384.3	6,154.3
1981	1.80	1,105.7	374.7	5,979.0
1982	1.81	1,071.3	362.6	5,795.9
1983	1.78	1,085.0	357.7	5,934.4
1984	1.79	1,076.5	354.3	5,891.4
1985	1.83	1,081.0	353.3	5,932.9
1986	1.83	1,070.0	350.8	5,865.1
1987	1.86	1,079.3	347.3	5,959.7
1988	1.92	1,070.3	346.3	5,897.1
1989	2.00	1,040.8	340.5	5,710.0
1990	2.07	1,021.3	333.6	5,606.3
1991	2.06	1,007.7	329.8	5,527.6
1992	2.04	992.7	322.4	5,461.5
1993	2.02	1,016.4	325.3	5,624.3
1994	2.00	1,004.1	321.8	5,553.3
1995	1.98	1,001.5	317.9	5,559.5
1996	1.98	987.8	306.6	5,529.1
1997	1.97	971.9	293.3	5,496.4
1998	2.00	963.8	285.4	5,487.1
1999	2.01	970.6	283.2	5,553.6
2000	2.05	960.7	281.0	5,492.3
2001	2.03	951.1	280.4	5,422.8
2002	2.03	947.0	279.0	5,400.6
2003	2.05	933.4	277.2	5,308.6
2004	2.06	898.9	269.7	5,093.9
2005	2.06	901.3	270.7	5,105.4
2006	2.11	876.1	267.6	4,933.5
2007	2.12	856.8	261.6	4,825.2
2008	2.07	857.0	258.8	4,845.5
2009	2.00	827.1	255.3	4,639.7
2010	1.93	821.3	248.5	4,640.1
2011	1.89	819.4	249.1	4,621.4
2012	1.87	812.0	248.6	4,568.2
2013	1.85	812.1	249.4	4,563.6
2014	1.86	805.3	251.5	4,497.8
2015	1.85	^d 815.8	255.0	^d 4,555.0
2016	1.82	^e 791.0	^e 245.8	^e 4,425.8
2017	^e 1.80	^e 783.6	^e 243.7	^e 4,383.6
Intermediate:
2018	1.81	776.4	241.4	4,343.4
2019	1.82	769.3	239.1	4,304.7
2020	1.84	762.4	236.7	4,267.4
2021	1.86	755.5	234.2	4,231.1
2022	1.90	748.7	231.7	4,195.7
2023	1.94	742.0	229.2	4,161.1
2024	1.97	735.5	226.7	4,127.3
2025	1.99	728.9	224.2	4,094.1
2026	^f 2.00	722.5	221.7	4,061.5
2027	2.00	716.2	219.3	4,029.4
2028	2.00	709.9	216.8	3,997.8
2029	2.00	703.8	214.4	3,966.8
2030	2.00	697.7	211.9	3,936.2
2031	2.00	691.7	209.6	3,906.0
2032	2.00	685.7	207.2	3,876.3
2033	2.00	679.9	204.9	3,847.0
2034	2.00	674.1	202.6	3,818.1
2035	2.00	668.4	200.3	3,789.5
2036	2.00	662.8	198.1	3,761.4
2037	2.00	657.3	195.8	3,733.7
2038	2.00	651.8	193.7	3,706.3
2039	2.00	646.4	191.5	3,679.2
2040	2.00	641.1	189.4	3,652.5
2041	2.00	635.8	187.3	3,626.2
2042	2.00	630.6	185.2	3,600.2
2043	2.00	625.5	183.2	3,574.6
2044	2.00	620.5	181.2	3,549.2
2045	2.00	615.5	179.2	3,524.2
2046	2.00	610.5	177.2	3,499.5
2047	2.00	605.7	175.3	3,475.1
2048	2.00	600.9	173.4	3,451.0
2049	2.00	596.2	171.5	3,427.2
2050	2.00	591.5	169.7	3,403.7
2051	2.00	586.9	167.9	3,380.5
2052	2.00	582.3	166.1	3,357.6
2053	2.00	577.8	164.3	3,335.0
2054	2.00	573.4	162.5	3,312.6
2055	2.00	569.0	160.8	3,290.5
2056	2.00	564.7	159.1	3,268.7
2057	2.00	560.4	157.4	3,247.1
2058	2.00	556.2	155.8	3,225.8
2059	2.00	552.0	154.1	3,204.8
2060	2.00	547.9	152.5	3,184.0
2061	2.00	543.8	150.9	3,163.4
2062	2.00	539.8	149.4	3,143.1
2063	2.00	535.9	147.8	3,123.0
2064	2.00	531.9	146.3	3,103.1
2065	2.00	528.1	144.8	3,083.5
2066	2.00	524.2	143.3	3,064.1
2067	2.00	520.5	141.8	3,045.0
2068	2.00	516.7	140.4	3,026.0
2069	2.00	513.0	138.9	3,007.3
2070	2.00	509.4	137.5	2,988.7
2071	2.00	505.8	136.1	2,970.4
2072	2.00	502.2	134.8	2,952.3
2073	2.00	498.7	133.4	2,934.4
2074	2.00	495.2	132.1	2,916.7
2075	2.00	491.8	130.7	2,899.2
2076	2.00	488.4	129.4	2,881.8
2077	2.00	485.1	128.1	2,864.7
2078	2.00	481.7	126.9	2,847.8
2079	2.00	478.5	125.6	2,831.0
2080	2.00	475.2	124.4	2,814.4
2081	2.00	472.0	123.1	2,798.0
2082	2.00	468.8	121.9	2,781.8
2083	2.00	465.7	120.7	2,765.7
2084	2.00	462.6	119.6	2,749.8
2085	2.00	459.5	118.4	2,734.1
2086	2.00	456.5	117.2	2,718.5
2087	2.00	453.5	116.1	2,703.1
2088	2.00	450.6	115.0	2,687.9
2089	2.00	447.6	113.9	2,672.8
2090	2.00	444.7	112.8	2,657.9
2091	2.00	441.9	111.7	2,643.1
2092	2.00	439.0	110.6	2,628.5
2093	2.00	436.2	109.6	2,614.1
2094	2.00	433.5	108.5	2,599.7
2095	2.00	430.7	107.5	2,585.6
Low-cost:
2018	1.85	791.1	245.8	4,426.8
2019	1.87	788.3	244.9	4,411.2
2020	1.91	785.3	243.9	4,395.2
2021	1.96	782.2	242.8	4,379.0
2022	2.01	779.1	241.6	4,362.5
2023	2.07	775.9	240.4	4,345.9
2024	2.11	772.6	239.2	4,329.2
2025	2.15	769.3	237.9	4,312.3
2026	2.18	766.0	236.6	4,295.5
2027	2.20	762.7	235.3	4,278.6
2028	2.20	759.3	234.0	4,261.8
2029	2.20	756.0	232.7	4,245.0
2030	2.20	752.7	231.4	4,228.2
2031	2.20	749.4	230.1	4,211.5
2032	2.20	746.1	228.8	4,194.9
2033	2.20	742.8	227.5	4,178.4
2034	2.20	739.5	226.2	4,161.9
2035	2.20	736.2	224.9	4,145.5
2036	2.20	733.0	223.6	4,129.3
2037	2.20	729.8	222.3	4,113.1
2038	2.20	726.6	221.0	4,097.0
2039	2.20	723.4	219.8	4,081.0
2040	2.20	720.2	218.5	4,065.2
2041	2.20	717.1	217.3	4,049.4
2042	2.20	713.9	216.0	4,033.7
2043	2.20	710.8	214.8	4,018.1
2044	2.20	707.8	213.6	4,002.6
2045	2.20	704.7	212.3	3,987.2
2046	2.20	701.6	211.1	3,972.0
2047	2.20	698.6	209.9	3,956.8
2048	2.20	695.6	208.7	3,941.7
2049	2.20	692.6	207.6	3,926.7
2050	2.20	689.7	206.4	3,911.8
2051	2.20	686.7	205.2	3,897.1
2052	2.20	683.8	204.1	3,882.4
2053	2.20	680.9	202.9	3,867.8
2054	2.20	678.0	201.8	3,853.3
2055	2.20	675.2	200.6	3,838.9
2056	2.20	672.3	199.5	3,824.6
2057	2.20	669.5	198.4	3,810.4
2058	2.20	666.7	197.3	3,796.3
2059	2.20	663.9	196.2	3,782.3
2060	2.20	661.1	195.1	3,768.4
2061	2.20	658.4	194.0	3,754.5
2062	2.20	655.7	192.9	3,740.8
2063	2.20	653.0	191.9	3,727.1
2064	2.20	650.3	190.8	3,713.6
2065	2.20	647.6	189.7	3,700.1
2066	2.20	644.9	188.7	3,686.7
2067	2.20	642.3	187.7	3,673.4
2068	2.20	639.7	186.6	3,660.2
2069	2.20	637.1	185.6	3,647.0
2070	2.20	634.5	184.6	3,634.0
2071	2.20	631.9	183.6	3,621.0
2072	2.20	629.3	182.6	3,608.1
2073	2.20	626.8	181.6	3,595.3
2074	2.20	624.3	180.6	3,582.6
2075	2.20	621.8	179.6	3,569.9
2076	2.20	619.3	178.6	3,557.3
2077	2.20	616.8	177.6	3,544.9
2078	2.20	614.4	176.7	3,532.4
2079	2.20	611.9	175.7	3,520.1
2080	2.20	609.5	174.8	3,507.9
2081	2.20	607.1	173.8	3,495.7
2082	2.20	604.7	172.9	3,483.6
2083	2.20	602.3	172.0	3,471.5
2084	2.20	599.9	171.0	3,459.6
2085	2.20	597.6	170.1	3,447.7
2086	2.20	595.3	169.2	3,435.9
2087	2.20	592.9	168.3	3,424.2
2088	2.20	590.6	167.4	3,412.5
2089	2.20	588.3	166.5	3,400.9
2090	2.20	586.1	165.6	3,389.4
2091	2.20	583.8	164.7	3,377.9
2092	2.20	581.6	163.9	3,366.6
2093	2.20	579.3	163.0	3,355.2
2094	2.20	577.1	162.1	3,344.0
2095	2.20	574.9	161.3	3,332.8
High-cost:
2018	1.77	760.7	236.6	4,255.3
2019	1.76	749.0	232.6	4,191.6
2020	1.76	737.6	228.6	4,130.9
2021	1.77	726.5	224.6	4,072.6
2022	1.79	715.7	220.6	4,016.5
2023	1.80	705.1	216.6	3,962.3
2024	1.80	694.9	212.7	3,909.8
2025	1.80	684.8	208.8	3,858.9
2026	1.80	675.0	204.9	3,809.3
2027	1.80	665.5	201.2	3,761.1
2028	1.80	656.1	197.5	3,714.0
2029	1.80	647.0	193.8	3,668.2
2030	1.80	638.0	190.3	3,623.4
2031	1.80	629.3	186.8	3,579.6
2032	1.80	620.7	183.4	3,536.9
2033	1.80	612.4	180.0	3,495.1
2034	1.80	604.2	176.8	3,454.2
2035	1.80	596.2	173.6	3,414.2
2036	1.80	588.4	170.4	3,375.0
2037	1.80	580.7	167.4	3,336.7
2038	1.80	573.2	164.4	3,299.2
2039	1.80	565.9	161.5	3,262.4
2040	1.80	558.7	158.6	3,226.4
2041	1.80	551.7	155.8	3,191.1
2042	1.80	544.8	153.1	3,156.5
2043	1.80	538.1	150.4	3,122.6
2044	1.80	531.5	147.8	3,089.3
2045	1.80	525.0	145.2	3,056.8
2046	1.80	518.6	142.8	3,024.8
2047	1.80	512.4	140.3	2,993.4
2048	1.80	506.3	137.9	2,962.7
2049	1.80	500.4	135.6	2,932.5
2050	1.80	494.5	133.3	2,902.8
2051	1.80	488.8	131.1	2,873.8
2052	1.80	483.1	128.9	2,845.2
2053	1.80	477.6	126.7	2,817.2
2054	1.80	472.2	124.6	2,789.7
2055	1.80	466.9	122.6	2,762.7
2056	1.80	461.7	120.6	2,736.1
2057	1.80	456.6	118.6	2,710.0
2058	1.80	451.6	116.7	2,684.4
2059	1.80	446.6	114.8	2,659.2
2060	1.80	441.8	112.9	2,634.5
2061	1.80	437.1	111.1	2,610.2
2062	1.80	432.4	109.4	2,586.3
2063	1.80	427.8	107.6	2,562.8
2064	1.80	423.3	105.9	2,539.7
2065	1.80	418.9	104.3	2,516.9
2066	1.80	414.6	102.6	2,494.6
2067	1.80	410.3	101.0	2,472.6
2068	1.80	406.2	99.5	2,450.9
2069	1.80	402.0	97.9	2,429.6
2070	1.80	398.0	96.4	2,408.7
2071	1.80	394.0	94.9	2,388.1
2072	1.80	390.1	93.5	2,367.8
2073	1.80	386.3	92.1	2,347.8
2074	1.80	382.5	90.7	2,328.1
2075	1.80	378.8	89.3	2,308.7
2076	1.80	375.1	88.0	2,289.6
2077	1.80	371.5	86.7	2,270.8
2078	1.80	368.0	85.4	2,252.3
2079	1.80	364.5	84.1	2,234.1
2080	1.80	361.1	82.9	2,216.1
2081	1.80	357.7	81.7	2,198.4
2082	1.80	354.4	80.5	2,180.9
2083	1.80	351.2	79.3	2,163.7
2084	1.80	347.9	78.1	2,146.8
2085	1.80	344.8	77.0	2,130.1
2086	1.80	341.7	75.9	2,113.6
2087	1.80	338.6	74.8	2,097.3
2088	1.80	335.6	73.7	2,081.3
2089	1.80	332.6	72.7	2,065.5
2090	1.80	329.7	71.7	2,049.9
2091	1.80	326.8	70.7	2,034.5
2092	1.80	323.9	69.7	2,019.3
2093	1.80	321.1	68.7	2,004.3
2094	1.80	318.4	67.7	1,989.5
2095	1.80	315.6	66.8	1,974.9

^a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
^b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
^c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
^d Estimated.
^e Estimated, intermediate alternative.
^f Under the intermediate assumptions, the ultimate value of the TFR (2.00) is reached in 2027. However, due to rounding, this table shows a 2.00 TFR for 2026.