2019 OASDI Trustees Report

H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT PAYMENTS FROM THE OASI
TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

(Required by section 201(c) of the Social Security Act)

Effective January 1957, the OASI Trust Fund pays monthly benefits to disabled children aged 18 and over of retired and deceased workers if the disability began before age 18. The age by which disability must have begun was later changed to age 22. Effective February 1968, the OASI Trust Fund pays reduced monthly benefits to disabled widows and widowers at ages 50 and over. Effective January 1991, the requirements for the disability of the widow or widower were made less restrictive.

At the end of 2018, the OASI Trust Fund was providing monthly benefit payments to about 1,139,000 people because of their disabilities or the disabilities of children. This total includes approximately 24,000 mothers and fathers (wives or husbands under normal retirement age of retired-worker beneficiaries and widows or widowers of deceased insured workers) who met all other qualifying requirements and were receiving unreduced benefits solely because they had disabled-child beneficiaries (or disabled children aged 16 or 17) in their care. In calendar year 2018, the OASI Trust Fund paid a total of $11,898 million to the people described above. Table VI.H1 shows OASI scheduled benefits for disability for selected calendar years during 1960 through 2018 and estimates for 2019 through 2028 based on the intermediate set of assumptions.

Table VI.H1.—Scheduled Benefit Payments From the OASI Trust Fund
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries 

[Beneficiaries in thousands; scheduled benefits in millions]

Calendar year		Disabled beneficiaries, end of year				Amount of scheduled benefitsa b
		Total	Childrenc	Widows- widowersd		Total	Childrenc	Widows- widowerse
Historical data:
	1960	117	117	—		$59	$59	—
	1965	214	214	—		134	134	—
	1970	316	281	36		301	260	$41
	1975	435	376	58		664	560	104
	1980	519	460	59		1,223	1,097	126
	1985	594	547	47		2,072	1,885	187
	1990	662	613	49		2,882	2,649	233
	1995	772	681	91		4,202	3,672	531
	2000	811	707	104		5,203	4,523	680
	2005	836	728	108		6,449	5,556	834
	2010	996	879	117		8,858	7,848	1,008
	2011	1,020	899	121		9,136	8,085	1,050
	2012	1,045	920	125		9,698	8,595	1,102
	2013	1,065	939	126		9,953	8,840	1,109
	2014	1,079	954	125		10,326	9,217	1,108
	2015	1,096	972	124		10,736	9,624	1,109
	2016	1,109	988	121		11,025	9,933	1,087
	2017	1,124	1,006	117		11,355	10,288	1,061
	2018	1,139	1,027	112		11,898	10,860	1,031
Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:
	2019	1,154	1,046	108		12,450	11,429	1,014
	2020	1,169	1,065	103		12,916	11,915	993
	2021	1,184	1,084	100		13,503	12,509	985
	2022	1,199	1,103	96		14,107	13,119	979
	2023	1,215	1,121	93		14,720	13,740	970
	2024	1,231	1,140	91		15,385	14,400	974
	2025	1,247	1,158	89		16,089	15,101	977
	2026	1,263	1,176	87		16,842	15,839	992
	2027	1,279	1,193	86		17,634	16,617	1,006
	2028	1,295	1,209	85		18,457	17,415	1,030

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a

Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

b

Amounts for 2015 and 2016 are adjusted to include in 2016 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2016, which were actually paid on December 31, 2015 as required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a Saturday, Sunday, or public holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years occur periodically whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent perspective on scheduled benefits over time, scheduled benefits in each year reflect the 12 months of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

c

Also includes certain mothers and fathers (see text).

d

In 1984 and later years, includes only disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59, because disabled widows and widowers age 60 and older are eligible for the same benefit as a nondisabled aged widow or widower. Therefore, they are not receiving benefits solely because of a disability.

e

In 1983 and prior years, includes the offsetting effect of lower benefits payable to disabled widows and widowers who continued to receive benefits after attaining age 60 (62, for disabled widowers prior to 1973), compared to the higher nondisabled widow’s and widower’s benefits that would otherwise be payable. In 1984 and later years, includes only scheduled benefits to disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59 (see footnote d).

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Under the intermediate assumptions, estimated total scheduled benefits paid from the OASI Trust Fund with respect to disabled beneficiaries will increase from $12,450 million in calendar year 2019 to $18,457 million in calendar year 2028.

In calendar year 2018, benefit payments (including payments for vocational rehabilitation services) with respect to disabled persons from the OASI Trust Fund and from the DI Trust Fund (including payments from the DI fund to all children and spouses of disabled-worker beneficiaries) totaled $155,658 million. Of this amount, $11,898 million, or 7.6 percent, represented payments from the OASI Trust Fund. Table VI.H2 contains these and similar figures for selected calendar years during 1960 through 2018 and estimates for calendar years 2019 through 2028.

Table VI.H2.—Scheduled Benefit Payments^a Under the OASDI Program
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries 

[Amounts in millions]

Calendar year		Total b	DI Trust Fundc	OASI Trust Fund
				Amountd	Percentage of total
Historical data:
	1960	$627	$568	$59	9.4
	1965	1,707	1,573	134	7.9
	1970	3,386	3,085	301	8.9
	1975	9,169	8,505	664	7.2
	1980	16,738	15,515	1,223	7.3
	1985	20,908	18,836	2,072	9.9
	1990	27,717	24,835	2,882	10.4
	1995	45,140	40,937	4,202	9.3
	2000	60,204	55,001	5,203	8.6
	2005	91,835	85,386	6,449	7.0
	2010	133,103	124,245	8,858	6.7
	2011	138,115	128,979	9,136	6.6
	2012	146,623	136,925	9,698	6.6
	2013	150,108	140,155	9,953	6.6
	2014	152,031	141,705	10,326	6.8
	2015	154,124	143,388	10,736	7.0
	2016	153,824	142,800	11,025	7.2
	2017	154,181	142,826	11,355	7.4
	2018	155,658	143,760	11,898	7.6
Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:
	2019	159,397	146,947	12,450	7.8
	2020	160,740	147,824	12,916	8.0
	2021	164,979	151,476	13,503	8.2
	2022	169,903	155,797	14,107	8.3
	2023	175,572	160,852	14,720	8.4
	2024	182,832	167,448	15,385	8.4
	2025	191,183	175,094	16,089	8.4
	2026	200,189	183,347	16,842	8.4
	2027	209,582	191,947	17,634	8.4
	2028	217,518	199,061	18,457	8.5

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a

Amounts for 2015 and 2016 are adjusted to include in 2016 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2016, which were actually paid on December 31, 2015 as required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a Saturday, Sunday, or public holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years occur periodically whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent perspective on scheduled benefits over time, scheduled benefits in each year reflect the 12 months of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

b

Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

c

Scheduled benefits for disabled workers and their children and spouses.

d

Scheduled benefits for disabled children aged 18 and over, for certain mothers and fathers (see text), and for disabled widows and widowers (see footnote e, table VI.H1).

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.