Principal Demographic Assumptions — 2019 OASDI Trustees Report

Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, ^a
Calendar Years 1940-2095
Historical data:
Calendar year	Total fertility rate ^b	Age-sex-adjusted death rate ^c per 100,000
Calendar year	Total fertility rate ^b	Total	Under 65	65 and over
1940	2.23	1,919.8	750.1	9,718.8
1941	2.33	1,836.5	726.1	9,240.1
1942	2.55	1,776.7	703.0	8,935.3
1943	2.64	1,852.8	708.8	9,479.8
1944	2.49	1,763.8	685.6	8,952.5
1945	2.42	1,716.6	674.8	8,662.9
1946	2.86	1,664.4	641.2	8,485.9
1947	3.18	1,668.3	619.0	8,663.7
1948	3.03	1,633.0	604.8	8,488.3
1949	3.04	1,583.3	585.3	8,237.3
1950	3.03	1,561.9	570.2	8,173.7
1951	3.20	1,548.4	565.5	8,101.4
1952	3.29	1,518.8	558.8	7,919.5
1953	3.35	1,510.5	545.5	7,944.7
1954	3.46	1,433.4	514.9	7,557.2
1955	3.50	1,453.8	508.2	7,758.4
1956	3.60	1,455.4	506.8	7,780.4
1957	3.68	1,481.6	516.6	7,916.0
1958	3.63	1,467.9	506.1	7,880.1
1959	3.64	1,440.8	499.2	7,719.3
1960	3.61	1,454.3	503.2	7,795.4
1961	3.56	1,420.8	488.0	7,640.2
1962	3.42	1,448.5	493.7	7,814.1
1963	3.30	1,472.5	501.3	7,947.7
1964	3.17	1,426.0	496.5	7,622.9
1965	2.88	1,428.8	495.2	7,653.3
1966	2.67	1,431.8	497.1	7,663.7
1967	2.53	1,393.6	488.5	7,427.9
1968	2.43	1,418.1	500.8	7,534.0
1969	2.42	1,374.2	491.7	7,258.0
1970	2.43	1,340.0	485.7	7,036.3
1971	2.25	1,332.9	472.5	7,068.9
1972	1.99	1,328.0	470.4	7,045.8
1973	1.86	1,309.2	463.0	6,951.3
1974	1.82	1,255.6	443.6	6,668.9
1975	1.77	1,204.8	426.6	6,393.6
1976	1.74	1,195.1	416.1	6,389.1
1977	1.80	1,160.6	405.7	6,193.7
1978	1.76	1,155.1	399.0	6,196.8
1979	1.82	1,116.4	386.2	5,984.8
1980	1.82	1,136.9	384.3	6,154.3
1981	1.80	1,105.7	374.7	5,979.0
1982	1.81	1,071.3	362.6	5,795.9
1983	1.78	1,085.0	357.7	5,934.4
1984	1.79	1,076.5	354.3	5,891.4
1985	1.83	1,081.0	353.3	5,932.9
1986	1.83	1,070.0	350.8	5,865.1
1987	1.86	1,059.3	347.3	5,805.8
1988	1.92	1,072.2	346.3	5,911.9
1989	2.00	1,042.6	340.5	5,723.7
1990	2.07	1,022.9	333.6	5,618.9
1991	2.06	1,009.2	329.8	5,538.9
1992	2.04	994.0	322.4	5,471.7
1993	2.02	1,017.7	325.3	5,634.3
1994	2.00	1,005.3	321.8	5,562.1
1995	1.98	1,002.7	317.9	5,568.6
1996	1.98	988.8	306.6	5,537.4
1997	1.97	972.9	293.3	5,503.6
1998	2.00	964.8	285.4	5,494.6
1999	2.01	971.7	283.2	5,561.6
2000	2.05	961.5	281.0	5,498.9
2001	2.03	951.9	280.4	5,428.6
2002	2.03	947.6	279.0	5,405.7
2003	2.05	933.9	277.2	5,312.3
2004	2.06	899.3	269.7	5,097.0
2005	2.06	901.9	270.7	5,110.3
2006	2.11	879.1	267.6	4,956.5
2007	2.12	858.1	261.6	4,835.4
2008	2.07	858.1	258.8	4,854.4
2009	2.00	827.8	255.3	4,644.7
2010	1.93	820.8	248.5	4,636.1
2011	1.89	820.7	249.1	4,631.3
2012	1.87	811.7	248.6	4,565.6
2013	1.85	812.2	249.4	4,564.6
2014	1.86	804.9	251.4	4,495.1
2015	1.84	815.0	254.9	4,549.7
2016	1.82	^d 808.2	260.5	^d 4,460.0
2017	1.76	^d 802.7	^d 250.6	^d 4,483.6
2018	^e 1.74	^e 791.8	^e 249.3	^e 4,408.3
Intermediate:
2019	1.75	785.9	247.7	4,374.0
2020	1.76	779.9	245.9	4,339.7
2021	1.79	773.7	243.9	4,305.5
2022	1.84	767.4	241.8	4,271.5
2023	1.90	761.0	239.5	4,237.7
2024	1.95	754.6	237.2	4,204.1
2025	1.98	748.2	234.8	4,170.8
2026	1.99	741.8	232.4	4,137.8
2027	2.00	735.4	230.0	4,105.1
2028	2.00	729.0	227.5	4,072.8
2029	2.00	722.7	225.0	4,040.9
2030	2.00	716.5	222.6	4,009.3
2031	2.00	710.3	220.2	3,978.1
2032	2.00	704.2	217.7	3,947.3
2033	2.00	698.1	215.3	3,916.9
2034	2.00	692.1	213.0	3,886.8
2035	2.00	686.2	210.6	3,857.2
2036	2.00	680.4	208.3	3,827.9
2037	2.00	674.6	206.0	3,799.0
2038	2.00	668.9	203.7	3,770.4
2039	2.00	663.3	201.5	3,742.2
2040	2.00	657.7	199.3	3,714.4
2041	2.00	652.3	197.1	3,687.0
2042	2.00	646.8	194.9	3,659.9
2043	2.00	641.5	192.8	3,633.1
2044	2.00	636.2	190.7	3,606.7
2045	2.00	631.0	188.6	3,580.6
2046	2.00	625.9	186.6	3,554.9
2047	2.00	620.8	184.6	3,529.5
2048	2.00	615.8	182.6	3,504.4
2049	2.00	610.9	180.6	3,479.6
2050	2.00	606.0	178.7	3,455.2
2051	2.00	601.2	176.8	3,431.0
2052	2.00	596.5	174.9	3,407.2
2053	2.00	591.8	173.0	3,383.6
2054	2.00	587.1	171.2	3,360.4
2055	2.00	582.6	169.4	3,337.4
2056	2.00	578.1	167.6	3,314.7
2057	2.00	573.6	165.9	3,292.3
2058	2.00	569.2	164.1	3,270.2
2059	2.00	564.9	162.4	3,248.3
2060	2.00	560.6	160.7	3,226.7
2061	2.00	556.4	159.1	3,205.4
2062	2.00	552.2	157.4	3,184.3
2063	2.00	548.1	155.8	3,163.4
2064	2.00	544.0	154.2	3,142.9
2065	2.00	540.0	152.6	3,122.5
2066	2.00	536.0	151.1	3,102.4
2067	2.00	532.1	149.5	3,082.5
2068	2.00	528.2	148.0	3,062.9
2069	2.00	524.3	146.5	3,043.5
2070	2.00	520.6	145.0	3,024.3
2071	2.00	516.8	143.6	3,005.3
2072	2.00	513.1	142.1	2,986.6
2073	2.00	509.5	140.7	2,968.1
2074	2.00	505.9	139.3	2,949.7
2075	2.00	502.3	137.9	2,931.6
2076	2.00	498.8	136.6	2,913.7
2077	2.00	495.3	135.2	2,896.0
2078	2.00	491.8	133.9	2,878.5
2079	2.00	488.4	132.6	2,861.2
2080	2.00	485.1	131.3	2,844.0
2081	2.00	481.7	130.0	2,827.1
2082	2.00	478.5	128.7	2,810.3
2083	2.00	475.2	127.5	2,793.7
2084	2.00	472.0	126.2	2,777.4
2085	2.00	468.8	125.0	2,761.1
2086	2.00	465.7	123.8	2,745.1
2087	2.00	462.6	122.6	2,729.2
2088	2.00	459.5	121.4	2,713.5
2089	2.00	456.5	120.3	2,698.0
2090	2.00	453.5	119.1	2,682.6
2091	2.00	450.5	118.0	2,667.4
2092	2.00	447.6	116.9	2,652.3
2093	2.00	444.7	115.8	2,637.4
2094	2.00	441.8	114.7	2,622.7
2095	2.00	438.9	113.6	2,608.1
Low-cost:
2019	1.79	794.3	250.5	4,420.4
2020	1.82	792.3	250.1	4,407.3
2021	1.87	789.9	249.4	4,393.3
2022	1.94	787.3	248.6	4,378.6
2023	2.02	784.5	247.7	4,363.2
2024	2.09	781.5	246.7	4,347.5
2025	2.14	778.5	245.6	4,331.3
2026	2.17	775.4	244.5	4,315.0
2027	2.20	772.2	243.3	4,298.4
2028	2.20	768.9	242.0	4,281.8
2029	2.20	765.6	240.8	4,265.0
2030	2.20	762.3	239.5	4,248.2
2031	2.20	759.0	238.2	4,231.5
2032	2.20	755.7	236.9	4,214.7
2033	2.20	752.4	235.6	4,198.0
2034	2.20	749.1	234.3	4,181.4
2035	2.20	745.8	233.0	4,164.8
2036	2.20	742.5	231.7	4,148.2
2037	2.20	739.2	230.4	4,131.8
2038	2.20	736.0	229.1	4,115.5
2039	2.20	732.7	227.8	4,099.2
2040	2.20	729.5	226.5	4,083.1
2041	2.20	726.3	225.3	4,067.0
2042	2.20	723.1	224.0	4,051.0
2043	2.20	720.0	222.7	4,035.1
2044	2.20	716.8	221.5	4,019.3
2045	2.20	713.7	220.2	4,003.7
2046	2.20	710.6	219.0	3,988.1
2047	2.20	707.5	217.7	3,972.6
2048	2.20	704.4	216.5	3,957.3
2049	2.20	701.4	215.3	3,942.0
2050	2.20	698.3	214.1	3,926.8
2051	2.20	695.3	212.9	3,911.8
2052	2.20	692.3	211.7	3,896.8
2053	2.20	689.4	210.5	3,882.0
2054	2.20	686.4	209.4	3,867.2
2055	2.20	683.5	208.2	3,852.6
2056	2.20	680.6	207.0	3,838.0
2057	2.20	677.7	205.9	3,823.5
2058	2.20	674.9	204.8	3,809.2
2059	2.20	672.0	203.6	3,794.9
2060	2.20	669.2	202.5	3,780.7
2061	2.20	666.4	201.4	3,766.6
2062	2.20	663.6	200.3	3,752.6
2063	2.20	660.8	199.2	3,738.7
2064	2.20	658.1	198.1	3,724.9
2065	2.20	655.3	197.0	3,711.2
2066	2.20	652.6	195.9	3,697.6
2067	2.20	649.9	194.9	3,684.0
2068	2.20	647.3	193.8	3,670.6
2069	2.20	644.6	192.8	3,657.2
2070	2.20	642.0	191.7	3,643.9
2071	2.20	639.3	190.7	3,630.7
2072	2.20	636.7	189.6	3,617.6
2073	2.20	634.1	188.6	3,604.6
2074	2.20	631.6	187.6	3,591.6
2075	2.20	629.0	186.6	3,578.8
2076	2.20	626.5	185.6	3,566.0
2077	2.20	623.9	184.6	3,553.3
2078	2.20	621.4	183.6	3,540.7
2079	2.20	618.9	182.6	3,528.1
2080	2.20	616.5	181.6	3,515.7
2081	2.20	614.0	180.7	3,503.3
2082	2.20	611.6	179.7	3,491.0
2083	2.20	609.1	178.7	3,478.7
2084	2.20	606.7	177.8	3,466.6
2085	2.20	604.3	176.8	3,454.5
2086	2.20	602.0	175.9	3,442.5
2087	2.20	599.6	175.0	3,430.6
2088	2.20	597.2	174.1	3,418.7
2089	2.20	594.9	173.1	3,407.0
2090	2.20	592.6	172.2	3,395.3
2091	2.20	590.3	171.3	3,383.6
2092	2.20	588.0	170.4	3,372.1
2093	2.20	585.7	169.5	3,360.6
2094	2.20	583.5	168.6	3,349.2
2095	2.20	581.2	167.8	3,337.8
High-cost:
2019	1.71	776.8	244.8	4,324.5
2020	1.70	766.4	241.4	4,266.7
2021	1.71	755.9	237.8	4,210.0
2022	1.74	745.3	234.1	4,154.2
2023	1.78	734.9	230.2	4,099.4
2024	1.80	724.5	226.4	4,045.6
2025	1.80	714.2	222.5	3,992.9
2026	1.80	704.1	218.6	3,941.2
2027	1.80	694.2	214.7	3,890.6
2028	1.80	684.4	210.9	3,841.0
2029	1.80	674.7	207.1	3,792.4
2030	1.80	665.3	203.4	3,744.9
2031	1.80	656.1	199.7	3,698.4
2032	1.80	647.0	196.1	3,652.8
2033	1.80	638.1	192.6	3,608.2
2034	1.80	629.4	189.1	3,564.6
2035	1.80	620.9	185.8	3,521.8
2036	1.80	612.5	182.4	3,480.0
2037	1.80	604.3	179.2	3,439.0
2038	1.80	596.3	176.0	3,398.9
2039	1.80	588.5	172.9	3,359.7
2040	1.80	580.9	169.8	3,321.2
2041	1.80	573.3	166.9	3,283.5
2042	1.80	566.0	163.9	3,246.6
2043	1.80	558.8	161.1	3,210.5
2044	1.80	551.7	158.3	3,175.0
2045	1.80	544.8	155.6	3,140.3
2046	1.80	538.1	152.9	3,106.2
2047	1.80	531.5	150.3	3,072.9
2048	1.80	525.0	147.7	3,040.2
2049	1.80	518.6	145.2	3,008.1
2050	1.80	512.4	142.8	2,976.6
2051	1.80	506.3	140.4	2,945.8
2052	1.80	500.3	138.0	2,915.5
2053	1.80	494.4	135.8	2,885.8
2054	1.80	488.7	133.5	2,856.6
2055	1.80	483.0	131.3	2,828.0
2056	1.80	477.5	129.2	2,799.9
2057	1.80	472.1	127.1	2,772.4
2058	1.80	466.8	125.0	2,745.3
2059	1.80	461.5	123.0	2,718.7
2060	1.80	456.4	121.0	2,692.6
2061	1.80	451.4	119.1	2,666.9
2062	1.80	446.5	117.2	2,641.7
2063	1.80	441.6	115.3	2,617.0
2064	1.80	436.9	113.5	2,592.6
2065	1.80	432.2	111.8	2,568.7
2066	1.80	427.6	110.0	2,545.2
2067	1.80	423.1	108.3	2,522.1
2068	1.80	418.7	106.6	2,499.4
2069	1.80	414.4	105.0	2,477.0
2070	1.80	410.1	103.4	2,455.0
2071	1.80	405.9	101.8	2,433.4
2072	1.80	401.8	100.2	2,412.1
2073	1.80	397.7	98.7	2,391.2
2074	1.80	393.7	97.2	2,370.6
2075	1.80	389.8	95.8	2,350.3
2076	1.80	386.0	94.4	2,330.3
2077	1.80	382.2	92.9	2,310.7
2078	1.80	378.5	91.6	2,291.3
2079	1.80	374.8	90.2	2,272.3
2080	1.80	371.2	88.9	2,253.5
2081	1.80	367.7	87.6	2,235.1
2082	1.80	364.2	86.3	2,216.8
2083	1.80	360.8	85.1	2,198.9
2084	1.80	357.4	83.8	2,181.2
2085	1.80	354.1	82.6	2,163.8
2086	1.80	350.8	81.4	2,146.7
2087	1.80	347.6	80.3	2,129.8
2088	1.80	344.4	79.1	2,113.1
2089	1.80	341.3	78.0	2,096.6
2090	1.80	338.2	76.9	2,080.4
2091	1.80	335.2	75.8	2,064.5
2092	1.80	332.2	74.8	2,048.7
2093	1.80	329.3	73.7	2,033.1
2094	1.80	326.4	72.7	2,017.8
2095	1.80	323.5	71.7	2,002.7

^a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
^b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
^c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
^d Estimated.
^e Estimated, intermediate alternative.