2021 OASDI Trustees Report

H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT PAYMENTS FROM THE OASI
TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

(Required by section 201(c) of the Social Security Act)

Effective January 1957, the OASI Trust Fund pays monthly benefits to disabled children aged 18 and over of retired and deceased workers if the disability began before age 18. The age by which disability must have begun was later changed to age 22. Effective February 1968, the OASI Trust Fund pays reduced monthly benefits to disabled widows and widowers at ages 50 and over. Effective January 1991, the requirements for the disability of the widow or widower were made less restrictive.

At the end of 2020, the OASI Trust Fund was providing monthly benefit payments to about 1,147,000 people because of their disabilities or the disabilities of children. This total includes approximately 23,000 mothers and fathers (wives or husbands under normal retirement age of retired-worker beneficiaries and widows or widowers of deceased insured workers) who met all other qualifying requirements and were receiving unreduced benefits solely because they had disabled-child beneficiaries (or disabled children aged 16 or 17) in their care. In calendar year 2020, the OASI Trust Fund paid a total of $12,351 million to the people described above. Table VI.H1 shows OASI scheduled benefits for disability for selected calendar years during 1960 through 2020 and estimates for 2021 through 2030 based on the intermediate set of assumptions.

Table VI.H1.—Scheduled Benefit Payments From the OASI Trust Fund
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries 

[Beneficiaries in thousands; scheduled benefits in millions]

Calendar year		Disabled beneficiaries, end of year				Amount of scheduled benefitsa b
		Total	Children  c	Widows- widowers  d		Total	Children c	Widows- widowers  e
Historical data:
	1960	117	117	—		$59	$59	—
	1965	214	214	—		134	134	—
	1970	316	281	36		301	260	$41
	1975	435	376	58		664	560	104
	1980	519	460	59		1,223	1,097	126
	1985	594	547	47		2,072	1,885	187
	1990	662	613	49		2,882	2,649	233
	1995	772	681	91		4,202	3,672	531
	2000	811	707	104		5,203	4,523	680
	2005	836	728	108		6,449	5,556	834
	2010	996	879	117		8,671	7,662	1,008
	2011	1,020	899	121		8,937	7,885	1,050
	2012	1,045	920	125		9,513	8,410	1,102
	2013	1,065	939	126		9,815	8,703	1,109
	2014	1,079	954	125		10,242	9,133	1,108
	2015	1,096	972	124		10,640	9,528	1,109
	2016	1,109	988	121		10,909	9,818	1,087
	2017	1,124	1,006	117		11,222	10,156	1,061
	2018	1,139	1,027	112		11,767	10,729	1,031
	2019	1,144	1,041	103		12,148	11,152	983
	2020	1,147	1,051	95		12,351	11,403	934
Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:
	2021	1,160	1,067	94		12,769	11,828	926
	2022	1,174	1,081	92		13,429	12,464	946
	2023	1,184	1,096	88		13,986	13,041	931
	2024	1,197	1,111	87		14,606	13,649	943
	2025	1,208	1,126	82		15,249	14,306	928
	2026	1,222	1,141	81		15,954	15,000	939
	2027	1,235	1,156	79		16,702	15,733	954
	2028	1,249	1,170	79		17,475	16,478	982
	2029	1,263	1,184	79		18,294	17,262	1,016
	2030	1,276	1,198	78		19,124	18,072	1,036

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a

Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

b

Amounts for 2020 and 2021 are adjusted to include in 2021 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2021, which were actually paid on December 31, 2020 as required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a weekend or holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years have occurred in the past, including in 2016, and will occur periodically in the future whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent perspective on trust fund operations over time, all trust fund operations in each year reflect the 12 months of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

c

Also includes certain mothers and fathers (see text).

d

In 1984 and later years, includes only disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59, because disabled widows and widowers age 60 and older are eligible for the same benefit as a nondisabled aged widow or widower. Therefore, they are not receiving benefits solely because of a disability.

e

In 1983 and prior years, includes the offsetting effect of lower benefits payable to disabled widows and widowers who continued to receive benefits after attaining age 60 (62, for disabled widowers prior to 1973), compared to the higher nondisabled widow’s and widower’s benefits that would otherwise be payable. In 1984 and later years, includes only scheduled benefits to disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59 (see footnote d).

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

Under the intermediate assumptions, estimated total scheduled benefits paid from the OASI Trust Fund with respect to disabled beneficiaries will increase from $12,769 million in calendar year 2021 to $19,124 million in calendar year 2030.

In calendar year 2020, benefit payments (including payments for vocational rehabilitation services) with respect to disabled persons from the OASI Trust Fund and from the DI Trust Fund (including payments from the DI fund to all children and spouses of disabled-worker beneficiaries) totaled $155,933 million. Of this amount, $12,351 million, or 7.9 percent, represented payments from the OASI Trust Fund. Table VI.H2 contains these and similar figures for selected calendar years during 1960 through 2020 and estimates for calendar years 2021 through 2030.

Table VI.H2.—Scheduled Benefit Payments^a Under the OASDI Program
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries 

[Amounts in millions]

Calendar year		Total b	DI Trust Fund  c	OASI Trust Fund
				Amount  d	Percentage of total
Historical data:
	1960	$627	$568	$59	9.4
	1965	1,707	1,573	134	7.9
	1970	3,386	3,085	301	8.9
	1975	9,169	8,505	664	7.2
	1980	16,738	15,515	1,223	7.3
	1985	20,908	18,836	2,072	9.9
	1990	27,717	24,835	2,882	10.4
	1995	45,140	40,937	4,202	9.3
	2000	60,204	55,001	5,203	8.6
	2005	91,835	85,386	6,449	7.0
	2010	132,916	124,245	8,671	6.5
	2011	137,916	128,979	8,937	6.5
	2012	146,438	136,925	9,513	6.5
	2013	149,970	140,155	9,815	6.5
	2014	151,947	141,705	10,242	6.7
	2015	154,028	143,388	10,640	6.9
	2016	153,709	142,800	10,909	7.1
	2017	154,048	142,826	11,222	7.3
	2018	155,526	143,760	11,767	7.6
	2019	157,289	145,141	12,148	7.7
	2020	155,933	143,582	12,351	7.9
Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:
	2021	155,569	142,800	12,769	8.2
	2022	164,038	150,610	13,429	8.2
	2023	171,018	157,032	13,986	8.2
	2024	177,632	163,026	14,606	8.2
	2025	184,026	168,777	15,249	8.3
	2026	192,130	176,176	15,954	8.3
	2027	200,555	183,853	16,702	8.3
	2028	207,530	190,055	17,475	8.4
	2029	214,938	196,644	18,294	8.5
	2030	222,749	203,625	19,124	8.6

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a

Amounts for 2020 and 2021 are adjusted to include in 2021 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2021, which were actually paid on December 31, 2020 as required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a weekend or holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years have occurred in the past, including in 2016, and will occur periodically in the future whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent perspective on trust fund operations over time, all trust fund operations in each year reflect the 12 months of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

b

Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

c

Scheduled benefits for disabled workers and their children and spouses.

d

Scheduled benefits for disabled children aged 18 and over, for certain mothers and fathers (see text), and for disabled widows and widowers (see footnote e, table VI.H1).

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.