Fertility and Mortality Assumptions — 2022 OASDI Trustees Report

Single-Year Tables Historical data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions
Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, a
Calendar Years 1940-2100
Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate b 		  Age-sex-adjusted death rate c
per 100,000
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.6
1961   3.56   1,421.0   488.0   7,642.0
1962   3.42   1,448.3   493.7   7,813.3
1963   3.30   1,472.7   501.3   7,949.1
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.9
1966   2.67   1,431.5   497.1   7,661.5
1967   2.53   1,393.5   488.5   7,427.4
1968   2.43   1,418.1   500.8   7,534.0
1969   2.42   1,374.1   491.6   7,258.0
1970   2.43   1,340.0   485.7   7,036.3
1971   2.25   1,332.9   472.6   7,068.9
1972   1.99   1,328.0   470.4   7,045.8
1973   1.86   1,309.2   462.9   6,951.3
1974   1.82   1,255.6   443.6   6,668.9
1975   1.77   1,204.8   426.6   6,393.6
1976   1.74   1,195.1   416.1   6,389.1
1977   1.80   1,160.6   405.7   6,193.7
1978   1.76   1,155.1   399.0   6,196.8
1979   1.82   1,116.4   386.3   5,984.8
1980   1.82   1,136.9   384.3   6,154.3
1981   1.80   1,105.7   374.7   5,979.0
1982   1.81   1,071.3   362.6   5,795.9
1983   1.78   1,085.0   357.7   5,934.4
1984   1.79   1,076.5   354.3   5,891.4
1985   1.83   1,081.0   353.3   5,932.9
1986   1.83   1,070.0   350.8   5,865.1
1987   1.86   1,059.3   347.3   5,805.8
1988   1.92   1,072.2   346.3   5,911.9
1989   2.00   1,042.6   340.5   5,723.7
1990   2.07   1,022.9   333.6   5,618.9
1991   2.06   1,009.2   329.8   5,538.9
1992   2.04   994.0   322.4   5,471.7
1993   2.02   1,017.7   325.3   5,634.3
1994   2.00   1,005.3   321.8   5,562.1
1995   1.98   1,002.7   317.9   5,568.6
1996   1.98   988.8   306.6   5,537.4
1997   1.97   972.9   293.3   5,503.6
1998   2.00   964.8   285.4   5,494.6
1999   2.01   971.7   283.2   5,561.6
2000   2.05   961.5   281.0   5,498.9
2001   2.03   951.9   280.4   5,428.6
2002   2.03   947.6   279.0   5,405.7
2003   2.05   933.9   277.2   5,312.3
2004   2.06   899.3   269.7   5,097.0
2005   2.06   901.9   270.7   5,110.3
2006   2.11   879.1   267.6   4,956.5
2007   2.12   858.1   261.6   4,835.4
2008   2.07   858.1   258.8   4,854.4
2009   2.00   827.8   255.3   4,644.7
2010   1.93   820.8   248.5   4,636.1
2011   1.89   820.7   249.2   4,631.3
2012   1.87   811.8   248.8   4,565.6
2013   1.85   812.4   249.6   4,564.6
2014   1.86   805.2   251.7   4,495.1
2015   1.85   815.4   255.3   4,549.7
2016   1.82   808.7   260.9   4,461.0
2017   1.76   812.8   261.6   4,487.7
2018   1.73   803.7   258.7   4,437.4
2019   1.70    d 792.8   257.7    d 4,360.2
2020   1.64    e 924.4    e 298.7    e 5,096.0
2021    e 1.66    e 935.6    e 307.4    e 5,123.7

Intermediate:
2022   1.68   824.8   272.9   4,504.8
2023   1.70   787.1   260.1   4,301.2
2024   1.72   773.9   255.7   4,228.8
2025   1.75   768.2   254.0   4,196.3
2026   1.77   762.3   252.2   4,163.9
2027   1.79   756.4   250.2   4,131.5
2028   1.82   750.4   248.1   4,099.3
2029   1.84   744.4   246.0   4,067.3
2030   1.87   738.4   243.8   4,035.5
2031   1.88   732.3   241.6   4,004.0
2032   1.89   726.3   239.4   3,972.8
2033   1.90   720.3   237.1   3,942.0
2034   1.92   714.4   234.8   3,911.5
2035   1.93   708.5   232.6   3,881.3
2036   1.94   702.6   230.3   3,851.5
2037   1.95   696.8   228.1   3,822.0
2038   1.96   691.1   225.9   3,792.9
2039   1.97   685.4   223.7   3,764.2
2040   1.98   679.8   221.5   3,735.8
2041   1.98   674.3   219.3   3,707.7
2042   1.99   668.8   217.2   3,680.0
2043   1.99   663.4   215.0   3,652.7
2044   1.99   658.0   212.9   3,625.7
2045   2.00   652.7   210.8   3,599.1
2046   2.00   647.5   208.8   3,572.8
2047   2.00   642.3   206.7   3,546.8
2048   2.00   637.2   204.7   3,521.1
2049   2.00   632.2   202.7   3,495.8
2050   2.00   627.2   200.7   3,470.8
2051   2.00   622.3   198.8   3,446.1
2052   2.00   617.4   196.8   3,421.7
2053   2.00   612.6   194.9   3,397.6
2054   2.00   607.9   193.0   3,373.9
2055   2.00   603.2   191.2   3,350.4
2056   2.00   598.6   189.3   3,327.2
2057   2.00   594.0   187.5   3,304.3
2058   2.00   589.5   185.7   3,281.7
2059   2.00   585.0   183.9   3,259.4
2060   2.00   580.6   182.2   3,237.3
2061   2.00   576.3   180.4   3,215.6
2062   2.00   572.0   178.7   3,194.0
2063   2.00   567.7   177.0   3,172.8
2064   2.00   563.5   175.3   3,151.8
2065   2.00   559.4   173.7   3,131.1
2066   2.00   555.3   172.0   3,110.6
2067   2.00   551.2   170.4   3,090.3
2068   2.00   547.2   168.8   3,070.3
2069   2.00   543.3   167.2   3,050.6
2070   2.00   539.3   165.6   3,031.1
2071   2.00   535.5   164.1   3,011.8
2072   2.00   531.7   162.5   2,992.7
2073   2.00   527.9   161.0   2,973.9
2074   2.00   524.1   159.5   2,955.2
2075   2.00   520.5   158.0   2,936.9
2076   2.00   516.8   156.6   2,918.7
2077   2.00   513.2   155.1   2,900.7
2078   2.00   509.6   153.7   2,882.9
2079   2.00   506.1   152.3   2,865.4
2080   2.00   502.6   150.9   2,848.0
2081   2.00   499.2   149.5   2,830.9
2082   2.00   495.8   148.1   2,813.9
2083   2.00   492.4   146.7   2,797.2
2084   2.00   489.1   145.4   2,780.6
2085   2.00   485.8   144.1   2,764.2
2086   2.00   482.5   142.7   2,748.0
2087   2.00   479.3   141.4   2,732.0
2088   2.00   476.1   140.2   2,716.1
2089   2.00   473.0   138.9   2,700.5
2090   2.00   469.9   137.6   2,685.0
2091   2.00   466.8   136.4   2,669.7
2092   2.00   463.7   135.2   2,654.5
2093   2.00   460.7   133.9   2,639.6
2094   2.00   457.8   132.7   2,624.7
2095   2.00   454.8   131.6   2,610.1
2096   2.00   451.9   130.4   2,595.6
2097   2.00   449.0   129.2   2,581.3
2098   2.00   446.2   128.1   2,567.1
2099   2.00   443.3   126.9   2,553.0
2100   2.00   440.6   125.8   2,539.2

Low-cost:
2022   1.76   838.5   277.7   4,577.7
2023   1.81   804.7   266.3   4,394.3
2024   1.85   795.6   263.5   4,343.5
2025   1.89   794.3   263.4   4,333.3
2026   1.93   792.7   263.3   4,322.9
2027   1.96   791.0   262.9   4,312.2
2028   2.00   789.2   262.5   4,301.3
2029   2.03   787.4   261.9   4,290.3
2030   2.06   785.4   261.4   4,279.2
2031   2.08   783.4   260.7   4,268.1
2032   2.09   781.3   260.0   4,256.9
2033   2.11   779.2   259.3   4,245.6
2034   2.12   777.1   258.5   4,234.4
2035   2.13   774.9   257.7   4,223.1
2036   2.14   772.8   256.9   4,211.9
2037   2.15   770.6   256.1   4,200.7
2038   2.16   768.4   255.3   4,189.5
2039   2.17   766.2   254.5   4,178.3
2040   2.18   764.1   253.7   4,167.1
2041   2.18   761.9   252.8   4,156.0
2042   2.19   759.7   252.0   4,145.0
2043   2.19   757.6   251.2   4,134.0
2044   2.19   755.4   250.3   4,123.0
2045   2.20   753.3   249.5   4,112.1
2046   2.20   751.1   248.6   4,101.1
2047   2.20   749.0   247.8   4,090.3
2048   2.20   746.8   247.0   4,079.5
2049   2.20   744.7   246.1   4,068.7
2050   2.20   742.6   245.3   4,058.0
2051   2.20   740.5   244.5   4,047.3
2052   2.20   738.4   243.7   4,036.7
2053   2.20   736.3   242.9   4,026.1
2054   2.20   734.2   242.0   4,015.6
2055   2.20   732.1   241.2   4,005.1
2056   2.20   730.1   240.4   3,994.7
2057   2.20   728.0   239.6   3,984.3
2058   2.20   726.0   238.8   3,974.0
2059   2.20   723.9   238.0   3,963.7
2060   2.20   721.9   237.2   3,953.4
2061   2.20   719.9   236.4   3,943.2
2062   2.20   717.9   235.7   3,933.0
2063   2.20   715.9   234.9   3,922.9
2064   2.20   713.9   234.1   3,912.8
2065   2.20   711.9   233.3   3,902.8
2066   2.20   709.9   232.5   3,892.8
2067   2.20   708.0   231.8   3,882.9
2068   2.20   706.0   231.0   3,873.0
2069   2.20   704.0   230.2   3,863.1
2070   2.20   702.1   229.5   3,853.3
2071   2.20   700.2   228.7   3,843.6
2072   2.20   698.2   227.9   3,833.8
2073   2.20   696.3   227.2   3,824.1
2074   2.20   694.4   226.4   3,814.5
2075   2.20   692.5   225.7   3,804.9
2076   2.20   690.6   224.9   3,795.3
2077   2.20   688.7   224.2   3,785.8
2078   2.20   686.8   223.5   3,776.4
2079   2.20   685.0   222.7   3,766.9
2080   2.20   683.1   222.0   3,757.5
2081   2.20   681.3   221.3   3,748.2
2082   2.20   679.4   220.5   3,738.9
2083   2.20   677.6   219.8   3,729.6
2084   2.20   675.7   219.1   3,720.3
2085   2.20   673.9   218.4   3,711.2
2086   2.20   672.1   217.6   3,702.0
2087   2.20   670.3   216.9   3,692.9
2088   2.20   668.5   216.2   3,683.8
2089   2.20   666.7   215.5   3,674.8
2090   2.20   664.9   214.8   3,665.8
2091   2.20   663.1   214.1   3,656.8
2092   2.20   661.3   213.4   3,647.9
2093   2.20   659.6   212.7   3,639.0
2094   2.20   657.8   212.0   3,630.2
2095   2.20   656.1   211.3   3,621.4
2096   2.20   654.3   210.6   3,612.6
2097   2.20   652.6   209.9   3,603.8
2098   2.20   650.9   209.3   3,595.2
2099   2.20   649.1   208.6   3,586.5
2100   2.20   647.4   207.9   3,577.9

High-cost:
2022   1.57   808.8   267.1   4,419.9
2023   1.55   766.2   252.5   4,191.0
2024   1.54   747.6   246.1   4,091.1
2025   1.54   736.4   242.3   4,030.4
2026   1.54   725.1   238.4   3,970.1
2027   1.55   713.8   234.3   3,910.5
2028   1.56   702.5   230.2   3,851.7
2029   1.58   691.4   226.1   3,793.9
2030   1.59   680.4   221.9   3,737.1
2031   1.60   669.6   217.8   3,681.5
2032   1.60   658.9   213.7   3,627.1
2033   1.61   648.4   209.7   3,573.9
2034   1.62   638.2   205.7   3,521.9
2035   1.63   628.1   201.7   3,471.1
2036   1.64   618.3   197.9   3,421.5
2037   1.65   608.7   194.1   3,373.1
2038   1.66   599.3   190.4   3,325.8
2039   1.67   590.1   186.7   3,279.7
2040   1.68   581.2   183.2   3,234.7
2041   1.68   572.4   179.7   3,190.8
2042   1.69   563.9   176.3   3,148.0
2043   1.69   555.5   172.9   3,106.1
2044   1.69   547.3   169.7   3,065.3
2045   1.70   539.4   166.5   3,025.5
2046   1.70   531.6   163.3   2,986.6
2047   1.70   523.9   160.3   2,948.6
2048   1.70   516.5   157.3   2,911.5
2049   1.70   509.2   154.3   2,875.3
2050   1.70   502.1   151.5   2,840.0
2051   1.70   495.2   148.7   2,805.4
2052   1.70   488.4   145.9   2,771.7
2053   1.70   481.8   143.3   2,738.7
2054   1.70   475.3   140.6   2,706.5
2055   1.70   469.0   138.1   2,675.0
2056   1.70   462.8   135.6   2,644.2
2057   1.70   456.7   133.1   2,614.1
2058   1.70   450.8   130.7   2,584.7
2059   1.70   445.0   128.4   2,555.9
2060   1.70   439.3   126.1   2,527.8
2061   1.70   433.8   123.8   2,500.2
2062   1.70   428.3   121.6   2,473.2
2063   1.70   423.0   119.5   2,446.9
2064   1.70   417.8   117.4   2,421.0
2065   1.70   412.7   115.3   2,395.7
2066   1.70   407.8   113.3   2,371.0
2067   1.70   402.9   111.3   2,346.7
2068   1.70   398.1   109.4   2,323.0
2069   1.70   393.4   107.5   2,299.7
2070   1.70   388.8   105.6   2,276.9
2071   1.70   384.3   103.8   2,254.5
2072   1.70   379.9   102.1   2,232.6
2073   1.70   375.6   100.3   2,211.1
2074   1.70   371.4   98.6   2,190.1
2075   1.70   367.2   96.9   2,169.4
2076   1.70   363.2   95.3   2,149.1
2077   1.70   359.2   93.7   2,129.3
2078   1.70   355.3   92.1   2,109.8
2079   1.70   351.4   90.6   2,090.6
2080   1.70   347.7   89.1   2,071.8
2081   1.70   344.0   87.6   2,053.4
2082   1.70   340.4   86.2   2,035.3
2083   1.70   336.8   84.7   2,017.5
2084   1.70   333.3   83.3   2,000.0
2085   1.70   329.9   82.0   1,982.9
2086   1.70   326.5   80.6   1,966.0
2087   1.70   323.2   79.3   1,949.4
2088   1.70   320.0   78.0   1,933.2
2089   1.70   316.8   76.8   1,917.2
2090   1.70   313.7   75.6   1,901.4
2091   1.70   310.6   74.3   1,886.0
2092   1.70   307.6   73.2   1,870.8
2093   1.70   304.6   72.0   1,855.8
2094   1.70   301.7   70.8   1,841.1
2095   1.70   298.9   69.7   1,826.6
2096   1.70   296.0   68.6   1,812.4
2097   1.70   293.3   67.5   1,798.3
2098   1.70   290.6   66.5   1,784.5
2099   1.70   287.9   65.4   1,771.0
2100   1.70   285.3   64.4   1,757.6
a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.
e Estimated, intermediate alternative.