Fertility and Mortality Assumptions — 2024 OASDI Trustees Report

Single-Year Tables Historical data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions
Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, a
Calendar Years 1940-2100
Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate b 		  Age-sex-adjusted death rate c
per 100,000
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.6
1961   3.56   1,421.0   488.0   7,642.0
1962   3.42   1,448.3   493.7   7,813.3
1963   3.30   1,472.7   501.3   7,949.1
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.9
1966   2.67   1,431.5   497.1   7,661.5
1967   2.53   1,393.5   488.5   7,427.4
1968   2.43   1,418.1   500.8   7,534.0
1969   2.42   1,374.1   491.6   7,258.0
1970   2.43   1,340.0   485.7   7,036.3
1971   2.25   1,332.9   472.6   7,068.9
1972   1.99   1,328.0   470.4   7,045.8
1973   1.86   1,309.2   462.9   6,951.3
1974   1.82   1,255.6   443.6   6,668.9
1975   1.77   1,204.8   426.6   6,393.6
1976   1.74   1,195.1   416.1   6,389.1
1977   1.80   1,160.6   405.7   6,193.7
1978   1.76   1,155.1   399.0   6,196.8
1979   1.82   1,116.4   386.3   5,984.8
1980   1.82   1,136.9   384.3   6,154.3
1981   1.80   1,105.7   374.7   5,979.0
1982   1.81   1,071.3   362.6   5,795.9
1983   1.78   1,085.0   357.7   5,934.4
1984   1.79   1,076.5   354.3   5,891.4
1985   1.83   1,081.0   353.3   5,932.9
1986   1.83   1,070.0   350.8   5,865.1
1987   1.86   1,059.3   347.3   5,805.8
1988   1.92   1,072.2   346.3   5,911.9
1989   2.00   1,042.6   340.5   5,723.7
1990   2.07   1,022.9   333.6   5,618.9
1991   2.06   1,009.2   329.8   5,538.9
1992   2.04   994.0   322.4   5,471.7
1993   2.02   1,017.7   325.3   5,634.3
1994   2.00   1,005.3   321.8   5,562.1
1995   1.98   1,002.7   317.9   5,568.6
1996   1.98   988.8   306.6   5,537.4
1997   1.97   972.9   293.3   5,503.6
1998   2.00   964.8   285.4   5,494.6
1999   2.01   971.7   283.2   5,561.6
2000   2.05   961.5   281.0   5,498.9
2001   2.03   951.9   280.4   5,428.6
2002   2.03   947.6   279.0   5,405.7
2003   2.05   933.9   277.2   5,312.3
2004   2.06   899.3   269.7   5,097.0
2005   2.06   901.9   270.7   5,110.3
2006   2.11   879.1   267.6   4,956.5
2007   2.12   858.1   261.6   4,835.4
2008   2.07   858.1   258.8   4,854.4
2009   2.00   827.8   255.3   4,644.7
2010   1.93   820.7   248.5   4,636.1
2011   1.89   820.6   249.0   4,631.3
2012   1.88   811.5   248.4   4,565.6
2013   1.85   811.8   248.9   4,564.6
2014   1.87   804.3   250.8   4,495.1
2015   1.85   814.2   254.0   4,549.7
2016   1.82   807.2   259.2   4,461.0
2017   1.77   810.9   259.5   4,487.7
2018   1.73   801.5   256.2   4,437.4
2019   1.71   790.3   254.7   4,361.0
2020   1.64   919.1   301.7   5,035.9
2021   1.66    d 933.3   335.9    d 4,915.9
2022   1.66    e 868.6    e 295.8    e 4,687.0
2023    f 1.64    g 823.7    g 273.9    g 4,489.0

Intermediate:
2024   1.67   784.1   257.1   4,297.7
2025   1.70   765.1   250.4   4,196.9
2026   1.73   759.3   248.5   4,164.4
2027   1.76   753.3   246.5   4,132.1
2028   1.79   747.3   244.5   4,099.9
2029   1.81   741.3   242.3   4,067.9
2030   1.83   735.3   240.2   4,036.1
2031   1.85   729.2   238.0   4,004.6
2032   1.87   723.2   235.7   3,973.4
2033   1.88   717.3   233.5   3,942.6
2034   1.89   711.3   231.3   3,912.1
2035   1.89   705.5   229.0   3,881.9
2036   1.90   699.6   226.8   3,852.1
2037   1.90   693.9   224.6   3,822.6
2038   1.90   688.2   222.4   3,793.5
2039   1.90   682.5   220.2   3,764.7
2040   1.90   676.9   218.1   3,736.3
2041   1.90   671.4   215.9   3,708.3
2042   1.90   666.0   213.8   3,680.6
2043   1.90   660.6   211.7   3,653.3
2044   1.90   655.2   209.6   3,626.3
2045   1.90   650.0   207.6   3,599.6
2046   1.90   644.8   205.5   3,573.3
2047   1.90   639.6   203.5   3,547.3
2048   1.90   634.6   201.5   3,521.7
2049   1.90   629.5   199.6   3,496.4
2050   1.90   624.6   197.6   3,471.3
2051   1.90   619.7   195.7   3,446.6
2052   1.90   614.9   193.8   3,422.3
2053   1.90   610.1   191.9   3,398.2
2054   1.90   605.4   190.1   3,374.4
2055   1.90   600.7   188.2   3,350.9
2056   1.90   596.1   186.4   3,327.8
2057   1.90   591.6   184.6   3,304.9
2058   1.90   587.1   182.8   3,282.3
2059   1.90   582.6   181.1   3,259.9
2060   1.90   578.2   179.3   3,237.9
2061   1.90   573.9   177.6   3,216.1
2062   1.90   569.6   175.9   3,194.6
2063   1.90   565.4   174.3   3,173.3
2064   1.90   561.2   172.6   3,152.3
2065   1.90   557.1   171.0   3,131.6
2066   1.90   553.0   169.3   3,111.1
2067   1.90   549.0   167.7   3,090.8
2068   1.90   545.0   166.2   3,070.8
2069   1.90   541.1   164.6   3,051.1
2070   1.90   537.2   163.1   3,031.5
2071   1.90   533.3   161.5   3,012.2
2072   1.90   529.5   160.0   2,993.2
2073   1.90   525.8   158.5   2,974.3
2074   1.90   522.1   157.0   2,955.7
2075   1.90   518.4   155.6   2,937.3
2076   1.90   514.8   154.1   2,919.1
2077   1.90   511.2   152.7   2,901.2
2078   1.90   507.6   151.3   2,883.4
2079   1.90   504.1   149.9   2,865.8
2080   1.90   500.6   148.5   2,848.5
2081   1.90   497.2   147.1   2,831.3
2082   1.90   493.8   145.8   2,814.4
2083   1.90   490.5   144.4   2,797.6
2084   1.90   487.2   143.1   2,781.0
2085   1.90   483.9   141.8   2,764.6
2086   1.90   480.7   140.5   2,748.4
2087   1.90   477.5   139.2   2,732.4
2088   1.90   474.3   138.0   2,716.6
2089   1.90   471.2   136.7   2,700.9
2090   1.90   468.1   135.5   2,685.4
2091   1.90   465.0   134.3   2,670.1
2092   1.90   462.0   133.0   2,655.0
2093   1.90   459.0   131.8   2,640.0
2094   1.90   456.0   130.7   2,625.2
2095   1.90   453.1   129.5   2,610.5
2096   1.90   450.2   128.3   2,596.0
2097   1.90   447.3   127.2   2,581.7
2098   1.90   444.5   126.0   2,567.5
2099   1.90   441.7   124.9   2,553.5
2100   1.90   438.9   123.8   2,539.6

Low-cost:
2024   1.74   806.3   265.1   4,414.4
2025   1.80   791.2   259.8   4,333.9
2026   1.85   789.6   259.6   4,323.4
2027   1.90   787.9   259.2   4,312.8
2028   1.93   786.1   258.8   4,301.9
2029   1.97   784.2   258.2   4,290.9
2030   2.00   782.2   257.6   4,279.8
2031   2.02   780.2   256.9   4,268.6
2032   2.04   778.1   256.2   4,257.4
2033   2.06   776.0   255.5   4,246.2
2034   2.07   773.9   254.7   4,234.9
2035   2.08   771.7   254.0   4,223.7
2036   2.09   769.6   253.2   4,212.4
2037   2.09   767.4   252.4   4,201.2
2038   2.09   765.2   251.6   4,190.0
2039   2.10   763.1   250.7   4,178.9
2040   2.10   760.9   249.9   4,167.7
2041   2.10   758.7   249.1   4,156.6
2042   2.10   756.6   248.3   4,145.6
2043   2.10   754.4   247.5   4,134.5
2044   2.10   752.3   246.6   4,123.6
2045   2.10   750.1   245.8   4,112.6
2046   2.10   748.0   245.0   4,101.7
2047   2.10   745.9   244.2   4,090.9
2048   2.10   743.7   243.3   4,080.1
2049   2.10   741.6   242.5   4,069.3
2050   2.10   739.5   241.7   4,058.6
2051   2.10   737.4   240.9   4,047.9
2052   2.10   735.3   240.1   4,037.3
2053   2.10   733.3   239.3   4,026.7
2054   2.10   731.2   238.5   4,016.2
2055   2.10   729.1   237.7   4,005.7
2056   2.10   727.1   236.9   3,995.3
2057   2.10   725.0   236.1   3,984.9
2058   2.10   723.0   235.3   3,974.5
2059   2.10   721.0   234.5   3,964.2
2060   2.10   718.9   233.7   3,954.0
2061   2.10   716.9   233.0   3,943.8
2062   2.10   714.9   232.2   3,933.6
2063   2.10   712.9   231.4   3,923.5
2064   2.10   711.0   230.6   3,913.4
2065   2.10   709.0   229.9   3,903.4
2066   2.10   707.0   229.1   3,893.4
2067   2.10   705.1   228.3   3,883.5
2068   2.10   703.1   227.6   3,873.6
2069   2.10   701.2   226.8   3,863.7
2070   2.10   699.2   226.1   3,853.9
2071   2.10   697.3   225.3   3,844.1
2072   2.10   695.4   224.6   3,834.4
2073   2.10   693.5   223.8   3,824.7
2074   2.10   691.6   223.1   3,815.1
2075   2.10   689.7   222.3   3,805.5
2076   2.10   687.8   221.6   3,795.9
2077   2.10   685.9   220.9   3,786.4
2078   2.10   684.0   220.2   3,776.9
2079   2.10   682.2   219.4   3,767.5
2080   2.10   680.3   218.7   3,758.1
2081   2.10   678.5   218.0   3,748.7
2082   2.10   676.6   217.3   3,739.4
2083   2.10   674.8   216.5   3,730.1
2084   2.10   673.0   215.8   3,720.9
2085   2.10   671.2   215.1   3,711.7
2086   2.10   669.4   214.4   3,702.5
2087   2.10   667.6   213.7   3,693.4
2088   2.10   665.8   213.0   3,684.3
2089   2.10   664.0   212.3   3,675.3
2090   2.10   662.2   211.6   3,666.3
2091   2.10   660.4   210.9   3,657.4
2092   2.10   658.7   210.2   3,648.4
2093   2.10   656.9   209.5   3,639.5
2094   2.10   655.1   208.9   3,630.7
2095   2.10   653.4   208.2   3,621.9
2096   2.10   651.7   207.5   3,613.1
2097   2.10   649.9   206.8   3,604.4
2098   2.10   648.2   206.1   3,595.7
2099   2.10   646.5   205.5   3,587.0
2100   2.10   644.8   204.8   3,578.4

High-cost:
2024   1.56   757.4   247.4   4,157.7
2025   1.56   733.4   238.8   4,031.0
2026   1.56   722.1   234.8   3,970.7
2027   1.56   710.8   230.8   3,911.1
2028   1.57   699.6   226.7   3,852.3
2029   1.57   688.4   222.6   3,794.5
2030   1.58   677.5   218.5   3,737.8
2031   1.59   666.7   214.4   3,682.2
2032   1.60   656.1   210.3   3,627.7
2033   1.60   645.6   206.4   3,574.5
2034   1.61   635.4   202.4   3,522.5
2035   1.61   625.4   198.5   3,471.7
2036   1.61   615.7   194.7   3,422.1
2037   1.61   606.1   191.0   3,373.6
2038   1.61   596.8   187.4   3,326.4
2039   1.61   587.6   183.8   3,280.3
2040   1.60   578.7   180.3   3,235.3
2041   1.60   570.0   176.8   3,191.3
2042   1.60   561.5   173.5   3,148.5
2043   1.60   553.2   170.2   3,106.7
2044   1.60   545.0   166.9   3,065.8
2045   1.60   537.1   163.8   3,026.0
2046   1.60   529.4   160.7   2,987.1
2047   1.60   521.8   157.7   2,949.1
2048   1.60   514.4   154.8   2,912.1
2049   1.60   507.1   151.9   2,875.8
2050   1.60   500.1   149.1   2,840.5
2051   1.60   493.2   146.3   2,805.9
2052   1.60   486.4   143.6   2,772.2
2053   1.60   479.8   141.0   2,739.2
2054   1.60   473.4   138.4   2,707.0
2055   1.60   467.1   135.9   2,675.5
2056   1.60   460.9   133.4   2,644.7
2057   1.60   454.9   131.0   2,614.6
2058   1.60   449.0   128.6   2,585.2
2059   1.60   443.3   126.3   2,556.4
2060   1.60   437.6   124.1   2,528.2
2061   1.60   432.1   121.9   2,500.6
2062   1.60   426.7   119.7   2,473.7
2063   1.60   421.4   117.6   2,447.3
2064   1.60   416.3   115.5   2,421.5
2065   1.60   411.2   113.5   2,396.2
2066   1.60   406.2   111.5   2,371.4
2067   1.60   401.4   109.5   2,347.1
2068   1.60   396.6   107.6   2,323.4
2069   1.60   392.0   105.8   2,300.1
2070   1.60   387.4   104.0   2,277.3
2071   1.60   382.9   102.2   2,254.9
2072   1.60   378.6   100.4   2,233.0
2073   1.60   374.3   98.7   2,211.5
2074   1.60   370.1   97.0   2,190.4
2075   1.60   365.9   95.4   2,169.8
2076   1.60   361.9   93.8   2,149.5
2077   1.60   357.9   92.2   2,129.6
2078   1.60   354.0   90.7   2,110.1
2079   1.60   350.2   89.1   2,091.0
2080   1.60   346.5   87.7   2,072.2
2081   1.60   342.8   86.2   2,053.7
2082   1.60   339.2   84.8   2,035.6
2083   1.60   335.7   83.4   2,017.8
2084   1.60   332.2   82.0   2,000.4
2085   1.60   328.8   80.7   1,983.2
2086   1.60   325.5   79.4   1,966.3
2087   1.60   322.2   78.1   1,949.8
2088   1.60   319.0   76.8   1,933.5
2089   1.60   315.8   75.6   1,917.5
2090   1.60   312.7   74.3   1,901.7
2091   1.60   309.6   73.2   1,886.3
2092   1.60   306.6   72.0   1,871.1
2093   1.60   303.7   70.8   1,856.1
2094   1.60   300.8   69.7   1,841.4
2095   1.60   297.9   68.6   1,826.9
2096   1.60   295.1   67.5   1,812.7
2097   1.60   292.4   66.5   1,798.6
2098   1.60   289.7   65.4   1,784.8
2099   1.60   287.0   64.4   1,771.2
2100   1.60   284.4   63.4   1,757.9
a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.
e Estimated using preliminary data.
f Estimated using partial-year selected state data.
g Estimated, intermediate alternative.