Additional Economic Factors — 2024 OASDI Trustees Report

Table V.B2.—Additional Economic Factors,
Calendar Years 1960-2100
Historical data:
	Average annual unemployment rate^a	Annual percentage change in--			Average annual interest rate
Calendar year	Average annual unemployment rate^a	Labor force^b	Total employment^c	Real GDP^d	Nominal^e	Real^f
1960	5.5	1.9	1.7	2.6	2.9	0.9
1961	6.7	1.1	g	2.6	3.8	1.9
1962	5.6	.2	1.8	6.1	3.9	2.8
1963	5.6	1.7	1.4	4.4	3.9	2.5
1964	5.2	1.8	2.2	5.8	4.1	2.6
1965	4.5	1.8	2.4	6.5	4.2	2.5
1966	3.8	1.8	3.0	6.6	4.9	1.4
1967	3.8	2.1	2.4	2.7	5.0	1.9
1968	3.6	1.8	2.1	4.9	5.5	.8
1969	3.5	2.5	2.4	3.1	6.6	.1
1970	5.0	2.6	.6	.2	7.3	1.0
1971	6.0	1.9	.4	3.3	6.0	2.9
1972	5.6	3.1	2.9	5.3	5.9	2.5
1973	4.9	2.8	3.3	5.6	6.6	-.2
1974	5.6	2.9	1.9	-.5	7.5	-3.8
1975	8.5	2.0	-1.1	-.2	7.4	-1.3
1976	7.7	2.5	3.3	5.4	7.1	1.7
1977	7.1	2.9	3.6	4.6	7.1	.8
1978	6.1	3.3	4.3	5.5	8.2	-.5
1979	5.9	2.7	2.8	3.2	9.1	-2.8
1980	7.2	1.9	.5	-.3	11.0	-3.6
1981	7.6	1.6	1.1	2.5	13.3	1.0
1982	9.7	1.4	-.8	-1.8	12.8	7.3
1983	9.6	1.2	1.3	4.6	11.0	9.9
1984	7.5	1.8	4.1	7.2	12.4	7.6
1985	7.2	1.7	2.0	4.2	10.8	9.0
1986	7.0	2.1	2.2	3.5	8.0	9.3
1987	6.2	1.7	2.5	3.5	8.4	4.4
1988	5.5	1.5	2.2	4.2	8.8	4.4
1989	5.3	1.8	2.0	3.7	8.7	4.0
1990	5.6	1.6	1.2	1.9	8.6	3.4
1991	6.9	.4	-.9	-.1	8.0	4.5
1992	7.5	1.4	.5	3.5	7.1	5.1
1993	6.9	.8	1.3	2.8	6.1	4.3
1994	6.1	1.4	2.2	4.0	7.1	3.6
1995	5.6	1.0	1.4	2.7	6.9	4.2
1996	5.4	1.2	1.4	3.8	6.6	4.0
1997	4.9	1.8	2.2	4.4	6.6	4.3
1998	4.5	1.0	1.4	4.5	5.6	5.3
1999	4.2	1.2	1.5	4.8	5.9	3.4
2000	4.0	2.3	2.5	4.1	6.2	2.4
2001	4.7	.8	g	1.0	5.2	3.5
2002	5.8	.8	-.3	1.7	4.9	3.9
2003	6.0	1.1	1.0	2.8	4.1	2.6
2004	5.5	.6	1.1	3.8	4.3	1.5
2005	5.1	1.3	1.7	3.5	4.3	.8
2006	4.6	1.4	1.8	2.8	4.8	1.1
2007	4.6	1.1	1.1	2.0	4.7	1.9
2008	5.8	.8	-.4	.1	3.6	.6
2009	9.3	-.1	-3.7	-2.6	2.9	4.4
2010	9.6	-.2	-.6	2.7	2.8	.9
2011	8.9	-.2	.6	1.6	2.4	-.7
2012	8.1	.9	1.8	2.3	1.5	.3
2013	7.4	.3	1.0	2.1	1.9	.1
2014	6.2	.3	1.6	2.5	2.3	.4
2015	5.3	.8	1.7	2.9	2.0	2.7
2016	4.9	1.3	1.7	1.8	1.8	1.0
2017	4.4	.7	1.2	2.5	2.3	-.3
2018	3.9	1.1	1.6	3.0	2.9	-.2
2019	3.7	.9	1.1	2.5	2.2	1.2
2020	8.1	-1.7	-6.2	-2.2	1.0	1.0
2021	5.4	.3	3.2	5.8	1.4	-4.1
2022	3.6	1.9	3.7	1.9	3.0	-6.5
2023^h	3.6	1.8	1.8	2.4	4.1	-.8
Intermediate:
2024	4.1	1.0	.5	1.7	4.6	1.4
2025	4.3	.7	.5	1.8	4.2	2.3
2026	4.5	.6	.4	2.1	4.1	1.8
2027	4.5	.6	.6	2.2	4.1	1.7
2028	4.5	.7	.7	2.4	4.1	1.7
2029	4.5	.6	.6	2.2	4.1	1.7
2030	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.0	1.7
2031	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.0	1.6
2032	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.1	1.6
2033	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.1	1.7
2034	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.3	1.7
2035	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.4	1.9
2036	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.5	2.0
2037	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.5	2.1
2038	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.6	2.1
2039	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.6	2.2
2040	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.2
2041	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2042	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2043	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2044	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2045	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2046	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2047	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2048	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2049	4.5	.4	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2050	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2051	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2052	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2053	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2054	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2055	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2056	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2057	4.5	.4	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2058	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2059	4.5	.4	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2060	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2061	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2062	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2063	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2064	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2065	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2066	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2067	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2068	4.5	.3	.3	1.8	4.7	2.3
2069	4.5	.3	.3	1.8	4.7	2.3
2070	4.5	.2	.2	1.8	4.7	2.3
2071	4.5	.2	.2	1.8	4.7	2.3
2072	4.5	.2	.2	1.8	4.7	2.3
2073	4.5	.2	.2	1.8	4.7	2.3
2074	4.5	.3	.3	1.8	4.7	2.3
2075	4.5	.3	.3	1.8	4.7	2.3
2076	4.5	.3	.3	1.8	4.7	2.3
2077	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2078	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2079	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2080	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2081	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2082	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2083	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2084	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2085	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2086	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2087	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.7	2.3
2088	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.7	2.3
2089	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.7	2.3
2090	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.7	2.3
2091	4.5	.4	.4	2.0	4.7	2.3
2092	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2093	4.5	.4	.4	1.9	4.7	2.3
2094	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2095	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2096	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2097	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2098	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2099	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
2100	4.5	.3	.3	1.9	4.7	2.3
Low-cost:
2024	3.7	1.5	1.4	2.9	4.9	1.2
2025	3.5	1.1	1.2	3.4	5.0	2.0
2026	3.5	.9	.9	2.9	5.0	2.0
2027	3.5	.8	.8	2.8	5.0	2.0
2028	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.0	2.0
2029	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.0	2.0
2030	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.0	2.0
2031	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.2	2.0
2032	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.3	2.2
2033	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.4	2.3
2034	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.6	2.4
2035	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.7	2.6
2036	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.7
2037	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2038	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2039	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2040	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2041	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2042	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2043	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2044	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2045	3.5	.6	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2046	3.5	.6	.6	2.5	5.8	2.8
2047	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2048	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2049	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2050	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2051	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2052	3.5	.7	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2053	3.5	.7	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2054	3.5	.7	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2055	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2056	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2057	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2058	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2059	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2060	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2061	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2062	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2063	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2064	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2065	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2066	3.5	.6	.6	2.5	5.8	2.8
2067	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2068	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2069	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2070	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2071	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2072	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2073	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2074	3.5	.5	.5	2.5	5.8	2.8
2075	3.5	.6	.6	2.5	5.8	2.8
2076	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2077	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2078	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2079	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2080	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2081	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2082	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2083	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2084	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2085	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2086	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2087	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2088	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2089	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2090	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2091	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2092	3.5	.7	.7	2.7	5.8	2.8
2093	3.5	.7	.7	2.6	5.8	2.8
2094	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2095	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2096	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2097	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2098	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2099	3.5	.6	.6	2.6	5.8	2.8
2100	3.5	.6	.6	2.5	5.8	2.8
High-cost:
2024	4.6	.8	-.3	-.3	4.3	1.3
2025	6.2	.5	-1.2	-.5	3.5	2.4
2026	6.5	.5	.2	2.1	3.2	1.7
2027	6.4	.3	.4	2.0	3.1	1.4
2028	6.2	.3	.6	2.0	3.0	1.3
2029	6.0	.4	.6	2.0	3.0	1.2
2030	5.7	.3	.6	2.0	3.0	1.2
2031	5.5	.3	.6	1.8	3.0	1.2
2032	5.4	.3	.4	1.5	3.0	1.2
2033	5.4	.3	.3	1.4	3.1	1.2
2034	5.5	.2	.2	1.4	3.1	1.3
2035	5.5	.2	.2	1.4	3.2	1.3
2036	5.5	.2	.2	1.4	3.3	1.4
2037	5.5	.2	.2	1.4	3.4	1.5
2038	5.5	.2	.2	1.4	3.5	1.6
2039	5.5	.2	.2	1.4	3.5	1.7
2040	5.5	.2	.2	1.4	3.6	1.7
2041	5.5	.1	.1	1.3	3.6	1.8
2042	5.5	.1	.1	1.3	3.6	1.8
2043	5.5	.1	.1	1.3	3.6	1.8
2044	5.5	.1	.1	1.3	3.6	1.8
2045	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2046	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2047	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2048	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2049	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2050	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2051	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2052	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2053	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2054	5.5	g	g	1.2	3.6	1.8
2055	5.5	g	g	1.1	3.6	1.8
2056	5.5	g	g	1.1	3.6	1.8
2057	5.5	g	g	1.1	3.6	1.8
2058	5.5	g	g	1.1	3.6	1.8
2059	5.5	g	g	1.1	3.6	1.8
2060	5.5	-.1	-.1	1.1	3.6	1.8
2061	5.5	-.1	-.1	1.1	3.6	1.8
2062	5.5	-.1	-.1	1.1	3.6	1.8
2063	5.5	-.1	-.1	1.1	3.6	1.8
2064	5.5	-.1	-.1	1.1	3.6	1.8
2065	5.5	-.1	-.1	1.1	3.6	1.8
2066	5.5	-.1	-.1	1.1	3.6	1.8
2067	5.5	-.1	-.1	1.0	3.6	1.8
2068	5.5	-.2	-.1	1.0	3.6	1.8
2069	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2070	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2071	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2072	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2073	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2074	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2075	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2076	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2077	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2078	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2079	5.5	-.2	-.2	.9	3.6	1.8
2080	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2081	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2082	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2083	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2084	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2085	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2086	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2087	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2088	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2089	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2090	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2091	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2092	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2093	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2094	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2095	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2096	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2097	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2098	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2099	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8
2100	5.5	-.2	-.2	1.0	3.6	1.8

^a The Office of the Chief Actuary adjusts the civilian unemployment rates for 2034 and later to the age-sex distribution of the civilian labor force in 2020. For years through 2033, the values are the aggregate rates without adjustment for the changing age-sex distribution.
^b The U.S. civilian labor force.
^c Total U.S. military and civilian employment.
^d The value of the total output of goods and services in 2017 dollars.
^e The average of the nominal interest rates, compounded semiannually, for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds in each of the 12 months of the year.
^f The realized or expected annual real yield for each year on securities issuable in the prior year.
^g Greater than -0.05 and less than 0.05 percent.
^h Estimated values for 2023 vary slightly by alternative and are shown for the intermediate assumptions.