2003 Trustees Report

The following table presents the plot points for Figure VI.E2--The probability distribution of the year-by-year combined OASI and DI cost rates as a percentage of taxable payroll. The income rate under the intermediate assumptions is also included in the graph in order to give some indication of the patterns of cash flow for the OASDI program. The column headings represent the percent of the 5,000 simulations with values less than or equal to the cost rate shown in the table.

Plot points
Calendar
year
OASDI
income
rate
OASDI cost rates
2.5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
97.5%
2002
12.73
10.45
10.58
10.67
10.74
10.78
10.84
10.89
10.94
11.01
11.10
11.24
2003
12.72
9.88
10.09
10.23
10.33
10.40
10.48
10.56
10.65
10.75
10.89
11.10
2004
12.72
9.71
9.96
10.12
10.24
10.34
10.44
10.52
10.62
10.74
10.89
11.14
2005
12.73
9.65
9.91
10.09
10.21
10.31
10.41
10.52
10.63
10.76
10.94
11.21
2006
12.73
9.62
9.91
10.09
10.23
10.34
10.44
10.55
10.68
10.82
11.01
11.33
2007
12.73
9.66
9.93
10.13
10.28
10.39
10.51
10.63
10.77
10.92
11.14
11.49
2008
12.75
9.67
10.00
10.21
10.37
10.50
10.62
10.75
10.89
11.06
11.27
11.66
2009
12.76
9.77
10.12
10.35
10.52
10.66
10.80
10.93
11.07
11.24
11.50
11.89
2010
12.78
9.83
10.22
10.49
10.67
10.83
10.98
11.13
11.30
11.49
11.75
12.21
2011
12.83
10.07
10.45
10.71
10.89
11.04
11.19
11.35
11.52
11.71
12.00
12.45
2012
12.84
10.24
10.65
10.91
11.11
11.27
11.44
11.60
11.78
11.99
12.29
12.77
2013
12.86
10.42
10.85
11.14
11.36
11.54
11.72
11.88
12.07
12.29
12.61
13.12
2014
12.88
10.65
11.11
11.41
11.63
11.83
12.00
12.17
12.37
12.62
12.95
13.47
2015
12.90
10.94
11.40
11.71
11.94
12.14
12.33
12.52
12.73
12.97
13.33
13.89
2016
12.92
11.17
11.70
12.02
12.26
12.47
12.67
12.88
13.09
13.35
13.72
14.32
2017
12.94
11.44
12.00
12.36
12.61
12.82
13.02
13.24
13.47
13.77
14.15
14.79
2018
12.96
11.74
12.32
12.69
12.97
13.21
13.42
13.64
13.89
14.18
14.63
15.35
2019
12.99
12.06
12.66
13.05
13.34
13.57
13.81
14.04
14.30
14.61
15.07
15.77
2020
13.01
12.41
13.00
13.39
13.70
13.96
14.20
14.44
14.71
15.07
15.50
16.26
2021
13.03
12.70
13.34
13.76
14.04
14.30
14.56
14.82
15.11
15.47
15.93
16.69
2022
13.06
13.02
13.67
14.10
14.40
14.67
14.94
15.21
15.52
15.87
16.35
17.17
2023
13.08
13.28
13.97
14.41
14.74
15.03
15.29
15.57
15.86
16.24
16.77
17.62
2024
13.10
13.53
14.25
14.72
15.05
15.34
15.65
15.93
16.24
16.62
17.16
18.09
2025
13.12
13.80
14.52
15.00
15.34
15.67
15.96
16.25
16.59
17.01
17.58
18.47
2026
13.14
14.05
14.75
15.25
15.63
15.94
16.25
16.58
16.92
17.34
17.96
18.88
2027
13.16
14.22
14.97
15.52
15.89
16.22
16.55
16.88
17.24
17.65
18.30
19.32
2028
13.17
14.33
15.18
15.73
16.12
16.46
16.80
17.14
17.54
17.97
18.65
19.64
2029
13.19
14.47
15.32
15.93
16.31
16.67
17.03
17.38
17.77
18.20
18.90
19.95
2030
13.20
14.58
15.50
16.07
16.48
16.85
17.23
17.58
17.97
18.44
19.16
20.20
2031
13.21
14.61
15.61
16.19
16.60
17.00
17.36
17.74
18.15
18.65
19.37
20.50
2032
13.23
14.68
15.68
16.27
16.73
17.13
17.48
17.91
18.33
18.87
19.65
20.75
2033
13.24
14.69
15.70
16.32
16.79
17.20
17.62
18.06
18.53
19.08
19.84
21.15
2034
13.24
14.66
15.72
16.34
16.83
17.29
17.73
18.16
18.63
19.22
20.05
21.33
2035
13.25
14.67
15.69
16.35
16.86
17.32
17.79
18.24
18.73
19.33
20.14
21.56
2036
13.25
14.62
15.60
16.34
16.88
17.36
17.82
18.28
18.81
19.38
20.28
21.67
2037
13.26
14.54
15.60
16.28
16.87
17.34
17.85
18.32
18.82
19.47
20.42
21.95
2038
13.26
14.42
15.51
16.23
16.82
17.31
17.84
18.33
18.85
19.54
20.53
22.05
2039
13.26
14.37
15.40
16.21
16.78
17.32
17.82
18.36
18.93
19.60
20.65
22.12
2040
13.26
14.21
15.35
16.15
16.74
17.28
17.82
18.35
18.95
19.68
20.67
22.34
2041
13.27
14.11
15.29
16.06
16.73
17.27
17.83
18.39
18.96
19.74
20.80
22.49
2042
13.27
14.06
15.25
16.05
16.67
17.30
17.84
18.41
19.03
19.80
20.88
22.56
2043
13.27
14.04
15.18
16.03
16.68
17.27
17.88
18.46
19.11
19.85
20.96
22.77
2044
13.27
13.95
15.13
16.01
16.67
17.30
17.86
18.45
19.16
19.93
21.07
22.95
2045
13.27
13.93
15.16
16.02
16.66
17.28
17.86
18.48
19.18
20.01
21.12
23.11
2046
13.28
13.92
15.16
16.00
16.69
17.29
17.92
18.54
19.23
20.07
21.21
23.30
2047
13.28
13.90
15.14
15.99
16.72
17.32
17.94
18.61
19.28
20.10
21.42
23.54
2048
13.28
13.90
15.17
16.04
16.76
17.39
18.01
18.63
19.31
20.17
21.49
23.56
2049
13.28
13.93
15.17
16.02
16.79
17.44
18.05
18.69
19.40
20.21
21.58
23.69
2050
13.29
13.91
15.12
16.02
16.78
17.46
18.07
18.72
19.44
20.36
21.70
23.82
2051
13.29
13.96
15.14
16.03
16.83
17.49
18.09
18.76
19.50
20.44
21.77
24.01
2052
13.30
13.96
15.13
16.07
16.85
17.54
18.18
18.84
19.62
20.54
21.90
24.34
2053
13.30
13.96
15.16
16.14
16.91
17.58
18.30
18.93
19.72
20.69
22.05
24.47
2054
13.31
13.93
15.21
16.20
16.97
17.69
18.33
19.04
19.83
20.84
22.11
24.72
2055
13.31
13.96
15.30
16.27
17.03
17.75
18.40
19.13
19.99
20.94
22.33
24.91
2056
13.32
14.00
15.35
16.32
17.10
17.80
18.52
19.23
20.10
21.07
22.58
25.09
2057
13.32
13.97
15.38
16.38
17.18
17.89
18.61
19.36
20.16
21.16
22.72
25.24
2058
13.33
14.00
15.39
16.39
17.21
17.98
18.67
19.41
20.34
21.32
22.93
25.45
2059
13.33
14.03
15.47
16.43
17.31
18.05
18.77
19.52
20.41
21.46
23.08
25.81
2060
13.34
14.00
15.46
16.54
17.41
18.11
18.84
19.62
20.53
21.58
23.29
26.07
2061
13.34
14.04
15.50
16.59
17.48
18.20
18.92
19.68
20.56
21.73
23.39
26.27
2062
13.35
14.05
15.56
16.66
17.56
18.32
19.05
19.78
20.66
21.84
23.53
26.59
2063
13.35
14.09
15.64
16.74
17.59
18.38
19.12
19.86
20.84
21.98
23.72
26.99
2064
13.36
14.11
15.70
16.82
17.71
18.50
19.21
20.03
20.97
22.11
23.89
27.04
2065
13.36
14.10
15.74
16.88
17.79
18.54
19.30
20.11
21.08
22.26
24.00
27.33
2066
13.37
14.28
15.79
16.97
17.87
18.64
19.44
20.19
21.19
22.40
24.24
27.67
2067
13.37
14.36
15.91
17.03
17.96
18.74
19.51
20.34
21.30
22.49
24.46
27.72
2068
13.38
14.39
15.95
17.09
18.03
18.85
19.61
20.48
21.41
22.60
24.62
28.00
2069
13.38
14.39
16.02
17.20
18.10
18.94
19.74
20.58
21.55
22.84
24.78
28.03
2070
13.39
14.38
16.07
17.28
18.22
19.03
19.80
20.69
21.60
22.90
24.77
28.29
2071
13.39
14.44
16.11
17.32
18.30
19.10
19.90
20.75
21.77
22.97
24.93
28.47
2072
13.39
14.47
16.20
17.39
18.34
19.15
19.99
20.87
21.89
23.12
25.11
28.62
2073
13.40
14.56
16.30
17.43
18.41
19.21
20.03
20.96
22.01
23.22
25.17
28.83
2074
13.40
14.49
16.30
17.54
18.46
19.32
20.17
21.09
22.10
23.34
25.36
28.84
2075
13.41
14.48
16.31
17.57
18.59
19.43
20.27
21.15
22.22
23.46
25.46
28.91
2076
13.41
14.53
16.32
17.68
18.67
19.49
20.33
21.24
22.30
23.64
25.72
28.98
2077
13.41
14.66
16.35
17.76
18.72
19.59
20.45
21.31
22.42
23.77
25.86
29.43

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