2004 Trustees Report
The following table presents the plot points for
Figure VI.E2--The probability distribution of the year-by-year (2004-2079) combined OASI and DI cost
rates as a percentage of taxable payroll. The income rate under the intermediate assumptions
is also included in the graph in order to give some indication of the patterns of cash flow for the OASDI program. The column headings represent the percent of the 5,000 simulations with values less than or equal to the cost rate shown in the table.
Plot points
Calendar year
|
OASDI income rate
|
OASDI cost rates
|
2.5%
|
10%
|
20%
|
30%
|
40%
|
50%
|
60%
|
70%
|
80%
|
90%
|
97.5%
|
2004
|
12.71
|
10.63
|
10.77
|
10.88
|
10.94
|
11.00
|
11.06
|
11.12
|
11.18
|
11.25
|
11.35
|
11.51
|
2005
|
12.73
|
10.23
|
10.44
|
10.59
|
10.69
|
10.78
|
10.86
|
10.95
|
11.04
|
11.15
|
11.29
|
11.52
|
2006
|
12.73
|
10.01
|
10.25
|
10.42
|
10.55
|
10.65
|
10.75
|
10.85
|
10.96
|
11.09
|
11.26
|
11.53
|
2007
|
12.75
|
9.91
|
10.18
|
10.36
|
10.50
|
10.60
|
10.71
|
10.83
|
10.95
|
11.09
|
11.30
|
11.61
|
2008
|
12.79
|
9.85
|
10.17
|
10.37
|
10.52
|
10.64
|
10.76
|
10.88
|
11.02
|
11.18
|
11.39
|
11.76
|
2009
|
12.78
|
9.96
|
10.26
|
10.48
|
10.64
|
10.77
|
10.89
|
11.03
|
11.18
|
11.35
|
11.60
|
12.01
|
2010
|
12.80
|
9.99
|
10.35
|
10.58
|
10.76
|
10.90
|
11.04
|
11.18
|
11.34
|
11.52
|
11.77
|
12.21
|
2011
|
12.85
|
10.08
|
10.46
|
10.72
|
10.91
|
11.07
|
11.22
|
11.37
|
11.52
|
11.71
|
11.98
|
12.42
|
2012
|
12.88
|
10.29
|
10.67
|
10.95
|
11.14
|
11.30
|
11.46
|
11.63
|
11.79
|
12.00
|
12.29
|
12.80
|
2013
|
12.91
|
10.46
|
10.89
|
11.18
|
11.37
|
11.54
|
11.72
|
11.90
|
12.09
|
12.31
|
12.64
|
13.15
|
2014
|
12.93
|
10.65
|
11.09
|
11.39
|
11.61
|
11.80
|
11.98
|
12.16
|
12.38
|
12.61
|
12.97
|
13.50
|
2015
|
12.95
|
10.87
|
11.32
|
11.66
|
11.89
|
12.09
|
12.28
|
12.47
|
12.68
|
12.93
|
13.26
|
13.88
|
2016
|
12.96
|
11.11
|
11.61
|
11.94
|
12.17
|
12.39
|
12.57
|
12.78
|
12.98
|
13.27
|
13.66
|
14.22
|
2017
|
12.98
|
11.41
|
11.90
|
12.22
|
12.48
|
12.69
|
12.90
|
13.11
|
13.35
|
13.62
|
14.03
|
14.68
|
2018
|
13.00
|
11.60
|
12.17
|
12.51
|
12.78
|
13.00
|
13.23
|
13.44
|
13.69
|
13.98
|
14.40
|
15.09
|
2019
|
13.02
|
11.86
|
12.44
|
12.82
|
13.10
|
13.32
|
13.55
|
13.79
|
14.06
|
14.36
|
14.81
|
15.56
|
2020
|
13.04
|
12.10
|
12.72
|
13.13
|
13.42
|
13.67
|
13.91
|
14.15
|
14.44
|
14.75
|
15.24
|
16.02
|
2021
|
13.06
|
12.39
|
13.02
|
13.42
|
13.74
|
13.99
|
14.25
|
14.51
|
14.80
|
15.14
|
15.65
|
16.45
|
2022
|
13.08
|
12.71
|
13.29
|
13.72
|
14.04
|
14.30
|
14.56
|
14.84
|
15.15
|
15.51
|
16.04
|
16.87
|
2023
|
13.10
|
12.96
|
13.57
|
14.03
|
14.33
|
14.60
|
14.88
|
15.17
|
15.48
|
15.85
|
16.41
|
17.22
|
2024
|
13.12
|
13.18
|
13.84
|
14.31
|
14.62
|
14.93
|
15.21
|
15.50
|
15.82
|
16.20
|
16.74
|
17.69
|
2025
|
13.13
|
13.43
|
14.11
|
14.57
|
14.92
|
15.23
|
15.51
|
15.81
|
16.14
|
16.52
|
17.12
|
18.03
|
2026
|
13.15
|
13.67
|
14.35
|
14.84
|
15.19
|
15.53
|
15.82
|
16.12
|
16.44
|
16.86
|
17.48
|
18.48
|
2027
|
13.17
|
13.84
|
14.57
|
15.10
|
15.45
|
15.78
|
16.10
|
16.40
|
16.76
|
17.23
|
17.85
|
18.85
|
2028
|
13.18
|
14.04
|
14.77
|
15.31
|
15.67
|
16.03
|
16.35
|
16.68
|
17.05
|
17.53
|
18.17
|
19.16
|
2029
|
13.20
|
14.19
|
14.97
|
15.51
|
15.90
|
16.25
|
16.59
|
16.94
|
17.31
|
17.80
|
18.44
|
19.57
|
2030
|
13.21
|
14.26
|
15.13
|
15.70
|
16.10
|
16.44
|
16.81
|
17.16
|
17.59
|
18.06
|
18.72
|
19.84
|
2031
|
13.22
|
14.42
|
15.26
|
15.87
|
16.30
|
16.65
|
17.00
|
17.38
|
17.78
|
18.24
|
18.95
|
20.13
|
2032
|
13.23
|
14.48
|
15.41
|
16.01
|
16.45
|
16.82
|
17.20
|
17.57
|
17.98
|
18.48
|
19.20
|
20.36
|
2033
|
13.24
|
14.57
|
15.54
|
16.13
|
16.54
|
16.96
|
17.34
|
17.71
|
18.16
|
18.62
|
19.42
|
20.62
|
2034
|
13.25
|
14.60
|
15.59
|
16.19
|
16.64
|
17.06
|
17.46
|
17.87
|
18.31
|
18.85
|
19.63
|
20.83
|
2035
|
13.26
|
14.62
|
15.62
|
16.23
|
16.71
|
17.14
|
17.57
|
17.99
|
18.47
|
19.05
|
19.85
|
21.14
|
2036
|
13.26
|
14.61
|
15.66
|
16.27
|
16.77
|
17.22
|
17.65
|
18.10
|
18.56
|
19.17
|
20.03
|
21.41
|
2037
|
13.27
|
14.62
|
15.63
|
16.26
|
16.79
|
17.26
|
17.73
|
18.20
|
18.72
|
19.30
|
20.14
|
21.61
|
2038
|
13.27
|
14.66
|
15.56
|
16.27
|
16.81
|
17.30
|
17.77
|
18.24
|
18.78
|
19.39
|
20.25
|
21.80
|
2039
|
13.28
|
14.56
|
15.54
|
16.25
|
16.80
|
17.33
|
17.81
|
18.28
|
18.82
|
19.46
|
20.44
|
21.95
|
2040
|
13.28
|
14.49
|
15.48
|
16.25
|
16.82
|
17.30
|
17.81
|
18.31
|
18.85
|
19.57
|
20.51
|
22.12
|
2041
|
13.28
|
14.44
|
15.46
|
16.21
|
16.80
|
17.33
|
17.81
|
18.36
|
18.93
|
19.64
|
20.71
|
22.19
|
2042
|
13.28
|
14.30
|
15.42
|
16.21
|
16.79
|
17.30
|
17.86
|
18.41
|
18.98
|
19.74
|
20.74
|
22.39
|
2043
|
13.28
|
14.33
|
15.38
|
16.18
|
16.76
|
17.34
|
17.89
|
18.42
|
19.04
|
19.83
|
20.86
|
22.52
|
2044
|
13.28
|
14.24
|
15.35
|
16.16
|
16.76
|
17.34
|
17.91
|
18.45
|
19.09
|
19.88
|
20.95
|
22.66
|
2045
|
13.29
|
14.22
|
15.31
|
16.15
|
16.79
|
17.39
|
17.94
|
18.55
|
19.16
|
19.94
|
21.03
|
22.80
|
2046
|
13.29
|
14.16
|
15.28
|
16.10
|
16.83
|
17.41
|
17.95
|
18.56
|
19.21
|
19.96
|
21.09
|
22.98
|
2047
|
13.29
|
14.11
|
15.30
|
16.11
|
16.80
|
17.38
|
17.96
|
18.53
|
19.26
|
20.07
|
21.19
|
23.19
|
2048
|
13.29
|
14.14
|
15.29
|
16.11
|
16.80
|
17.37
|
17.96
|
18.60
|
19.28
|
20.14
|
21.28
|
23.36
|
2049
|
13.29
|
14.11
|
15.26
|
16.13
|
16.80
|
17.39
|
18.01
|
18.65
|
19.31
|
20.15
|
21.40
|
23.54
|
2050
|
13.29
|
14.10
|
15.29
|
16.16
|
16.87
|
17.46
|
18.05
|
18.67
|
19.39
|
20.22
|
21.50
|
23.59
|
2051
|
13.30
|
14.14
|
15.29
|
16.17
|
16.93
|
17.52
|
18.13
|
18.72
|
19.42
|
20.32
|
21.59
|
23.68
|
2052
|
13.30
|
14.13
|
15.27
|
16.16
|
16.91
|
17.56
|
18.15
|
18.76
|
19.47
|
20.36
|
21.69
|
23.88
|
2053
|
13.30
|
14.12
|
15.25
|
16.19
|
16.95
|
17.57
|
18.16
|
18.82
|
19.54
|
20.45
|
21.73
|
23.98
|
2054
|
13.31
|
14.13
|
15.24
|
16.18
|
16.93
|
17.60
|
18.22
|
18.87
|
19.63
|
20.55
|
21.85
|
24.29
|
2055
|
13.31
|
14.06
|
15.29
|
16.24
|
16.99
|
17.68
|
18.29
|
18.94
|
19.70
|
20.66
|
22.04
|
24.41
|
2056
|
13.31
|
14.13
|
15.37
|
16.27
|
17.01
|
17.72
|
18.36
|
19.02
|
19.80
|
20.77
|
22.08
|
24.58
|
2057
|
13.32
|
14.15
|
15.43
|
16.33
|
17.09
|
17.77
|
18.42
|
19.10
|
19.91
|
20.89
|
22.30
|
24.68
|
2058
|
13.32
|
14.21
|
15.45
|
16.40
|
17.13
|
17.80
|
18.48
|
19.21
|
20.00
|
21.01
|
22.46
|
24.90
|
2059
|
13.33
|
14.17
|
15.46
|
16.40
|
17.14
|
17.87
|
18.57
|
19.28
|
20.06
|
21.10
|
22.56
|
24.99
|
2060
|
13.33
|
14.09
|
15.45
|
16.42
|
17.23
|
17.93
|
18.59
|
19.34
|
20.20
|
21.23
|
22.70
|
25.17
|
2061
|
13.33
|
14.14
|
15.53
|
16.47
|
17.25
|
17.97
|
18.69
|
19.41
|
20.27
|
21.30
|
22.82
|
25.42
|
2062
|
13.34
|
14.18
|
15.53
|
16.51
|
17.37
|
18.02
|
18.72
|
19.52
|
20.35
|
21.45
|
22.97
|
25.80
|
2063
|
13.34
|
14.17
|
15.58
|
16.65
|
17.41
|
18.12
|
18.83
|
19.57
|
20.37
|
21.50
|
23.10
|
25.99
|
2064
|
13.34
|
14.12
|
15.63
|
16.64
|
17.47
|
18.24
|
18.92
|
19.63
|
20.52
|
21.54
|
23.18
|
26.25
|
2065
|
13.35
|
14.12
|
15.65
|
16.68
|
17.50
|
18.29
|
19.01
|
19.73
|
20.63
|
21.69
|
23.34
|
26.45
|
2066
|
13.35
|
14.18
|
15.74
|
16.76
|
17.56
|
18.36
|
19.03
|
19.84
|
20.74
|
21.82
|
23.45
|
26.55
|
2067
|
13.35
|
14.26
|
15.72
|
16.81
|
17.64
|
18.38
|
19.11
|
19.92
|
20.80
|
21.90
|
23.52
|
26.74
|
2068
|
13.36
|
14.36
|
15.74
|
16.86
|
17.73
|
18.48
|
19.20
|
19.99
|
20.91
|
22.03
|
23.73
|
26.95
|
2069
|
13.36
|
14.37
|
15.82
|
16.92
|
17.79
|
18.53
|
19.28
|
20.08
|
20.97
|
22.12
|
23.90
|
27.01
|
2070
|
13.36
|
14.37
|
15.83
|
16.92
|
17.80
|
18.59
|
19.34
|
20.15
|
21.07
|
22.26
|
24.07
|
27.27
|
2071
|
13.37
|
14.32
|
15.88
|
17.00
|
17.82
|
18.65
|
19.41
|
20.21
|
21.16
|
22.34
|
24.09
|
27.32
|
2072
|
13.37
|
14.26
|
15.91
|
17.06
|
17.93
|
18.72
|
19.45
|
20.29
|
21.20
|
22.34
|
24.08
|
27.45
|
2073
|
13.37
|
14.31
|
15.93
|
17.08
|
17.95
|
18.76
|
19.50
|
20.29
|
21.28
|
22.39
|
24.18
|
27.50
|
2074
|
13.37
|
14.36
|
15.95
|
17.10
|
18.00
|
18.81
|
19.52
|
20.41
|
21.32
|
22.52
|
24.32
|
27.58
|
2075
|
13.38
|
14.42
|
15.99
|
17.15
|
18.05
|
18.79
|
19.58
|
20.44
|
21.40
|
22.57
|
24.41
|
27.66
|
2076
|
13.38
|
14.44
|
16.03
|
17.17
|
18.08
|
18.87
|
19.66
|
20.51
|
21.52
|
22.67
|
24.50
|
27.66
|
2077
|
13.38
|
14.42
|
16.06
|
17.22
|
18.18
|
18.95
|
19.73
|
20.56
|
21.51
|
22.74
|
24.64
|
27.72
|
2078
|
13.38
|
14.38
|
16.08
|
17.29
|
18.22
|
19.00
|
19.78
|
20.60
|
21.61
|
22.87
|
24.70
|
27.88
|
2079
|
13.38
|
14.48
|
16.09
|
17.35
|
18.27
|
19.07
|
19.83
|
20.67
|
21.68
|
23.01
|
24.86
|
28.06
|
RETURN TO TRUSTEES REPORT