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Principal Demographic Assumptions

Updated May 1, 2006

Historical Period Intermediate Assumptions Low Cost Assumptions High Cost Assumptions

Table V.A1.- Principal Demographic Assumptions
Calendar Years 1940-2080
Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate 1 		  Age-sex-adjusted death rate 2
per 100,000, by age:		   Net immigration
Total   Under 65   65 and over Legal 3   Other 4

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,779.1   673.0   9,569.0   45,950  
1941   2.33   1,700.7   651.2   9,091.7   30,212  
1942   2.55   1,643.6   628.8   8,791.0   19,682  
1943   2.64   1,712.1   631.8   9,320.0   19,605  
1944   2.49   1,630.7   611.5   8,808.4   25,002  
1945   2.42   1,586.6   601.8   8,522.4   55,069  
1946   2.86   1,536.1   569.9   8,340.8   96,005  
1947   3.18   1,535.3   544.8   8,510.9   119,196  
1948   3.03   1,502.3   532.0   8,335.9   134,582  
1949   3.04   1,456.6   514.0   8,094.7   164,062  
1950   3.03   1,435.6   499.4   8,028.3   170,594  
1951   3.20   1,423.3   495.1   7,960.5   176,717  
1952   3.29   1,396.2   489.0   7,785.1   163,481  
1953   3.35   1,387.2   476.2   7,803.0   141,976  
1954   3.46   1,316.2   449.1   7,422.9   167,240  
1955   3.50   1,334.2   442.8   7,612.2   209,779  
1956   3.60   1,334.3   440.8   7,626.3   243,188  
1957   3.68   1,356.9   449.0   7,751.2   217,547  
1958   3.63   1,344.3   439.8   7,714.6   192,731  
1959   3.64   1,319.2   433.8   7,555.0   197,283  
1960   3.61   1,330.9   436.9   7,626.7   201,276  
1961   3.56   1,299.1   423.6   7,464.6   208,167  
1962   3.42   1,323.2   428.4   7,624.9   221,255  
1963   3.30   1,344.5   434.7   7,751.4   224,439  
1964   3.17   1,302.6   431.2   7,438.9   220,853  
1965   2.88   1,304.6   430.0   7,464.0   232,400  
1966   2.67   1,307.8   431.9   7,476.8   256,878  
1967   2.53   1,273.1   424.6   7,248.1   306,155  
1968   2.43   1,295.1   435.3   7,350.4   304,886  
1969   2.42   1,255.7   428.3   7,082.9   274,465  
1970   2.43   1,224.3   422.6   6,870.7   278,928  
1971   2.25   1,217.2   410.7   6,897.0   283,185  
1972   1.99   1,212.5   408.2   6,877.0   294,282  
1973   1.86   1,194.7   401.8   6,778.8   298,096  
1974   1.82   1,145.4   384.7   6,502.8   292,893  
1975   1.77   1,099.0   369.5   6,236.4   294,303  
1976   1.74   1,088.8   359.7   6,223.5   313,919  
1977   1.80   1,057.5   350.7   6,035.2   372,824  
1978   1.76   1,052.1   344.6   6,035.3   424,628  
1979   1.82   1,017.3   333.8   5,831.1   358,437  
1980   1.82   1,035.9   331.9   5,993.6   410,348   375,000
1981   1.80   1,007.2   323.2   5,823.9   446,989   375,000
1982   1.81   975.8   312.0   5,650.9   439,152   375,000
1983   1.78   987.7   306.9   5,782.6   416,848   375,000
1984   1.79   980.1   304.2   5,740.0   412,825   375,000
1985   1.84   984.2   303.6   5,777.6   433,449   375,000
1986   1.83   975.3   302.5   5,713.8   451,247   375,000
1987   1.86   965.6   299.6   5,655.6   458,922   375,000
1988   1.92   974.9   299.3   5,733.2   476,472   375,000
1989   2.00   948.8   294.9   5,553.9   467,334   375,000
1990   2.07   931.2   289.4   5,451.1   501,065   550,000
1991   2.06   918.8   286.2   5,373.5   548,000   550,000
1992   2.04   906.2   280.2   5,315.3   620,986   550,000
1993   2.02   928.0   283.1   5,470.0   644,696   550,000
1994   2.00   916.2   280.5   5,392.7   583,390   550,000
1995   1.98   913.9   277.3   5,397.5   573,719   550,000
1996   1.98   900.4   266.1   5,367.2   662,284   550,000
1997   1.97   885.1   253.6   5,332.5   571,800   550,000
1998   2.00   878.3   246.9   5,325.2   489,360   550,000
1999   2.01   884.3   245.0   5,386.6   523,037   550,000
2000   2.06   875.6   243.4   5,328.3   677,579   550,000
2001   2.03   867.4   243.6   5,260.7   798,126   550,000
2002   2.02   863.6   242.7   5,236.6   730,689   550,000
2003 5   2.05   860.6   234.1   5,272.2   574,429   550,000
2004 5   2.04   856.4   231.3   5,258.7   709,606   400,000
2005 5   2.03   852.5   228.6   5,246.9   675,000   400,000

Intermediate:
2006   2.03   848.9   225.9   5,236.6   675,000   400,000
2007   2.03   844.7   223.4   5,220.4   600,000   400,000
2008   2.03   839.9   221.0   5,199.1   600,000   400,000
2009   2.03   834.8   218.6   5,173.7   600,000   400,000
2010   2.03   829.2   216.4   5,145.1   600,000   400,000
2011   2.03   823.4   214.2   5,114.0   600,000   400,000
2012   2.02   817.4   212.1   5,080.8   600,000   400,000
2013   2.02   811.3   210.0   5,046.2   600,000   400,000
2014   2.02   805.0   207.9   5,010.5   600,000   400,000
2015   2.02   798.7   205.9   4,974.0   600,000   400,000
2016   2.02   792.4   203.9   4,936.9   600,000   350,000
2017   2.02   786.0   201.9   4,899.6   600,000   350,000
2018   2.02   779.7   200.0   4,862.1   600,000   350,000
2019   2.02   773.4   198.1   4,824.6   600,000   350,000
2020   2.01   767.1   196.2   4,787.2   600,000   350,000
2021   2.01   760.8   194.4   4,750.0   600,000   350,000
2022   2.01   754.6   192.6   4,713.0   600,000   350,000
2023   2.01   748.5   190.8   4,676.3   600,000   350,000
2024   2.01   742.4   189.0   4,640.0   600,000   350,000
2025   2.01   736.4   187.3   4,604.0   600,000   350,000
2026   2.01   730.5   185.5   4,568.4   600,000   300,000
2027   2.00   724.6   183.8   4,533.1   600,000   300,000
2028   2.00   718.8   182.2   4,498.3   600,000   300,000
2029   2.00   713.1   180.5   4,463.9   600,000   300,000
2030   2.00   707.4   178.9   4,429.7   600,000   300,000
2031   2.00   701.8   177.3   4,396.0   600,000   300,000
2032   2.00   696.3   175.7   4,362.7   600,000   300,000
2033   2.00   690.8   174.1   4,329.8   600,000   300,000
2034   2.00   685.4   172.6   4,297.4   600,000   300,000
2035   2.00   680.1   171.0   4,265.4   600,000   300,000
2036   2.00   674.9   169.5   4,233.9   600,000   300,000
2037   2.00   669.7   168.0   4,202.7   600,000   300,000
2038   2.00   664.6   166.5   4,172.0   600,000   300,000
2039   2.00   659.5   165.1   4,141.6   600,000   300,000
2040   2.00   654.5   163.6   4,111.7   600,000   300,000
2041   2.00   649.6   162.2   4,082.1   600,000   300,000
2042   2.00   644.8   160.8   4,052.9   600,000   300,000
2043   2.00   640.0   159.4   4,024.1   600,000   300,000
2044   2.00   635.2   158.1   3,995.6   600,000   300,000
2045   2.00   630.6   156.7   3,967.5   600,000   300,000
2046   2.00   625.9   155.4   3,939.8   600,000   300,000
2047   2.00   621.4   154.1   3,912.4   600,000   300,000
2048   2.00   616.9   152.8   3,885.3   600,000   300,000
2049   2.00   612.4   151.5   3,858.6   600,000   300,000
2050   2.00   608.0   150.2   3,832.2   600,000   300,000
2051   2.00   603.7   148.9   3,806.2   600,000   300,000
2052   2.00   599.4   147.7   3,780.4   600,000   300,000
2053   2.00   595.2   146.5   3,755.0   600,000   300,000
2054   2.00   591.0   145.3   3,729.9   600,000   300,000
2055   2.00   586.8   144.1   3,705.0   600,000   300,000
2056   2.00   582.7   142.9   3,680.5   600,000   300,000
2057   2.00   578.7   141.7   3,656.3   600,000   300,000
2058   2.00   574.7   140.5   3,632.4   600,000   300,000
2059   2.00   570.8   139.4   3,608.7   600,000   300,000
2060   2.00   566.9   138.3   3,585.3   600,000   300,000
2061   2.00   563.0   137.2   3,562.2   600,000   300,000
2062   2.00   559.2   136.0   3,539.4   600,000   300,000
2063   2.00   555.5   135.0   3,516.9   600,000   300,000
2064   2.00   551.7   133.9   3,494.6   600,000   300,000
2065   2.00   548.1   132.8   3,472.5   600,000   300,000
2066   2.00   544.4   131.8   3,450.8   600,000   300,000
2067   2.00   540.8   130.7   3,429.2   600,000   300,000
2068   2.00   537.3   129.7   3,407.9   600,000   300,000
2069   2.00   533.8   128.7   3,386.9   600,000   300,000
2070   2.00   530.3   127.6   3,366.1   600,000   300,000
2071   2.00   526.9   126.6   3,345.5   600,000   300,000
2072   2.00   523.5   125.7   3,325.2   600,000   300,000
2073   2.00   520.1   124.7   3,305.1   600,000   300,000
2074   2.00   516.8   123.7   3,285.2   600,000   300,000
2075   2.00   513.5   122.8   3,265.5   600,000   300,000
2076   2.00   510.3   121.8   3,246.1   600,000   300,000
2077   2.00   507.1   120.9   3,226.8   600,000   300,000
2078   2.00   503.9   119.9   3,207.8   600,000   300,000
2079   2.00   500.7   119.0   3,189.0   600,000   300,000
2080   2.00   497.6   118.1   3,170.4   600,000   300,000

Low Cost:
2006   2.07   854.5   227.6   5,269.6   720,000   550,000
2007   2.08   855.6   226.6   5,285.1   850,000   550,000
2008   2.09   855.8   225.5   5,294.5   850,000   550,000
2009   2.10   855.4   224.4   5,298.8   850,000   550,000
2010   2.11   854.4   223.3   5,298.9   850,000   550,000
2011   2.12   853.0   222.2   5,295.6   850,000   550,000
2012   2.12   851.3   221.1   5,289.5   850,000   550,000
2013   2.13   849.2   219.9   5,281.1   850,000   550,000
2014   2.14   847.0   218.8   5,271.0   850,000   550,000
2015   2.15   844.5   217.6   5,259.4   850,000   550,000
2016   2.16   841.9   216.5   5,246.7   850,000   500,000
2017   2.17   839.2   215.3   5,233.1   850,000   500,000
2018   2.18   836.4   214.2   5,218.8   850,000   500,000
2019   2.19   833.6   213.0   5,204.0   850,000   500,000
2020   2.20   830.7   211.9   5,188.8   850,000   500,000
2021   2.21   827.8   210.7   5,173.3   850,000   500,000
2022   2.22   824.8   209.6   5,157.6   850,000   500,000
2023   2.23   821.9   208.5   5,141.7   850,000   500,000
2024   2.24   818.9   207.4   5,125.8   850,000   500,000
2025   2.25   816.0   206.3   5,109.8   850,000   500,000
2026   2.26   813.0   205.2   5,093.8   850,000   450,000
2027   2.27   810.1   204.1   5,077.8   850,000   450,000
2028   2.28   807.2   203.0   5,061.8   850,000   450,000
2029   2.29   804.3   202.0   5,045.9   850,000   450,000
2030   2.30   801.3   200.9   5,029.8   850,000   450,000
2031   2.30   798.4   199.9   5,013.8   850,000   450,000
2032   2.30   795.5   198.8   4,998.0   850,000   450,000
2033   2.30   792.7   197.8   4,982.2   850,000   450,000
2034   2.30   789.9   196.8   4,966.6   850,000   450,000
2035   2.30   787.0   195.8   4,951.1   850,000   450,000
2036   2.30   784.2   194.8   4,935.7   850,000   450,000
2037   2.30   781.5   193.8   4,920.4   850,000   450,000
2038   2.30   778.7   192.8   4,905.2   850,000   450,000
2039   2.30   776.0   191.8   4,890.2   850,000   450,000
2040   2.30   773.3   190.8   4,875.2   850,000   450,000
2041   2.30   770.6   189.9   4,860.4   850,000   450,000
2042   2.30   767.9   188.9   4,845.6   850,000   450,000
2043   2.30   765.3   188.0   4,831.0   850,000   450,000
2044   2.30   762.6   187.0   4,816.5   850,000   450,000
2045   2.30   760.0   186.1   4,802.0   850,000   450,000
2046   2.30   757.5   185.2   4,787.7   850,000   450,000
2047   2.30   754.9   184.3   4,773.5   850,000   450,000
2048   2.30   752.3   183.4   4,759.4   850,000   450,000
2049   2.30   749.8   182.5   4,745.4   850,000   450,000
2050   2.30   747.3   181.6   4,731.4   850,000   450,000
2051   2.30   744.8   180.7   4,717.6   850,000   450,000
2052   2.30   742.3   179.8   4,703.9   850,000   450,000
2053   2.30   739.9   178.9   4,690.3   850,000   450,000
2054   2.30   737.4   178.1   4,676.8   850,000   450,000
2055   2.30   735.0   177.2   4,663.3   850,000   450,000
2056   2.30   732.6   176.4   4,650.0   850,000   450,000
2057   2.30   730.2   175.5   4,636.7   850,000   450,000
2058   2.30   727.9   174.7   4,623.6   850,000   450,000
2059   2.30   725.5   173.9   4,610.5   850,000   450,000
2060   2.30   723.2   173.0   4,597.6   850,000   450,000
2061   2.30   720.9   172.2   4,584.7   850,000   450,000
2062   2.30   718.6   171.4   4,571.9   850,000   450,000
2063   2.30   716.3   170.6   4,559.2   850,000   450,000
2064   2.30   714.0   169.8   4,546.6   850,000   450,000
2065   2.30   711.8   169.0   4,534.1   850,000   450,000
2066   2.30   709.5   168.2   4,521.7   850,000   450,000
2067   2.30   707.3   167.5   4,509.3   850,000   450,000
2068   2.30   705.1   166.7   4,497.1   850,000   450,000
2069   2.30   702.9   165.9   4,484.9   850,000   450,000
2070   2.30   700.8   165.2   4,472.8   850,000   450,000
2071   2.30   698.6   164.4   4,460.8   850,000   450,000
2072   2.30   696.5   163.7   4,448.9   850,000   450,000
2073   2.30   694.4   162.9   4,437.0   850,000   450,000
2074   2.30   692.2   162.2   4,425.3   850,000   450,000
2075   2.30   690.2   161.4   4,413.6   850,000   450,000
2076   2.30   688.1   160.7   4,402.0   850,000   450,000
2077   2.30   686.0   160.0   4,390.4   850,000   450,000
2078   2.30   684.0   159.3   4,379.0   850,000   450,000
2079   2.30   681.9   158.6   4,367.6   850,000   450,000
2080   2.30   679.9   157.9   4,356.3   850,000   450,000

High Cost:
2006   2.00   843.4   224.2   5,203.7   560,000   250,000
2007   1.99   833.8   220.1   5,155.6   472,500   250,000
2008   1.97   823.8   216.2   5,103.5   472,500   250,000
2009   1.96   813.7   212.4   5,048.2   472,500   250,000
2010   1.95   803.3   208.7   4,990.5   472,500   250,000
2011   1.94   792.8   205.2   4,931.0   472,500   250,000
2012   1.92   782.2   201.7   4,870.3   472,500   250,000
2013   1.91   771.6   198.3   4,808.9   472,500   250,000
2014   1.90   761.0   195.0   4,747.1   472,500   250,000
2015   1.89   750.5   191.8   4,685.2   472,500   250,000
2016   1.87   740.1   188.6   4,623.5   472,500   200,000
2017   1.86   729.7   185.6   4,562.2   472,500   200,000
2018   1.85   719.5   182.5   4,501.3   472,500   200,000
2019   1.84   709.4   179.6   4,441.1   472,500   200,000
2020   1.82   699.5   176.6   4,381.6   472,500   200,000
2021   1.81   689.7   173.8   4,322.8   472,500   200,000
2022   1.80   680.0   171.0   4,264.9   472,500   200,000
2023   1.79   670.5   168.2   4,207.9   472,500   200,000
2024   1.77   661.2   165.6   4,151.7   472,500   200,000
2025   1.76   652.0   162.9   4,096.4   472,500   200,000
2026   1.75   643.0   160.3   4,042.0   472,500   200,000
2027   1.74   634.1   157.8   3,988.6   472,500   200,000
2028   1.73   625.4   155.3   3,936.0   472,500   200,000
2029   1.71   616.8   152.8   3,884.3   472,500   200,000
2030   1.70   608.4   150.4   3,833.4   472,500   200,000
2031   1.70   600.1   148.1   3,783.3   472,500   200,000
2032   1.70   591.9   145.7   3,734.2   472,500   200,000
2033   1.70   583.9   143.5   3,685.9   472,500   200,000
2034   1.70   576.1   141.2   3,638.5   472,500   200,000
2035   1.70   568.4   139.0   3,591.9   472,500   200,000
2036   1.70   560.8   136.9   3,546.2   472,500   200,000
2037   1.70   553.4   134.8   3,501.3   472,500   200,000
2038   1.70   546.1   132.7   3,457.1   472,500   200,000
2039   1.70   538.9   130.7   3,413.7   472,500   200,000
2040   1.70   531.8   128.7   3,371.1   472,500   200,000
2041   1.70   524.9   126.7   3,329.2   472,500   200,000
2042   1.70   518.1   124.8   3,288.0   472,500   200,000
2043   1.70   511.4   122.9   3,247.6   472,500   200,000
2044   1.70   504.8   121.0   3,207.8   472,500   200,000
2045   1.70   498.4   119.2   3,168.8   472,500   200,000
2046   1.70   492.0   117.4   3,130.4   472,500   200,000
2047   1.70   485.8   115.6   3,092.6   472,500   200,000
2048   1.70   479.6   113.9   3,055.5   472,500   200,000
2049   1.70   473.6   112.2   3,019.0   472,500   200,000
2050   1.70   467.7   110.5   2,983.2   472,500   200,000
2051   1.70   461.8   108.8   2,947.9   472,500   200,000
2052   1.70   456.1   107.2   2,913.3   472,500   200,000
2053   1.70   450.5   105.6   2,879.2   472,500   200,000
2054   1.70   444.9   104.1   2,845.7   472,500   200,000
2055   1.70   439.5   102.5   2,812.7   472,500   200,000
2056   1.70   434.1   101.0   2,780.3   472,500   200,000
2057   1.70   428.9   99.5   2,748.4   472,500   200,000
2058   1.70   423.7   98.1   2,717.0   472,500   200,000
2059   1.70   418.6   96.6   2,686.2   472,500   200,000
2060   1.70   413.6   95.2   2,655.8   472,500   200,000
2061   1.70   408.7   93.8   2,626.0   472,500   200,000
2062   1.70   403.8   92.5   2,596.6   472,500   200,000
2063   1.70   399.1   91.1   2,567.7   472,500   200,000
2064   1.70   394.4   89.8   2,539.3   472,500   200,000
2065   1.70   389.8   88.5   2,511.3   472,500   200,000
2066   1.70   385.2   87.2   2,483.8   472,500   200,000
2067   1.70   380.7   86.0   2,456.7   472,500   200,000
2068   1.70   376.4   84.7   2,430.0   472,500   200,000
2069   1.70   372.0   83.5   2,403.8   472,500   200,000
2070   1.70   367.8   82.3   2,378.0   472,500   200,000
2071   1.70   363.6   81.2   2,352.5   472,500   200,000
2072   1.70   359.5   80.0   2,327.5   472,500   200,000
2073   1.70   355.4   78.9   2,302.9   472,500   200,000
2074   1.70   351.4   77.8   2,278.6   472,500   200,000
2075   1.70   347.5   76.7   2,254.7   472,500   200,000
2076   1.70   343.6   75.6   2,231.2   472,500   200,000
2077   1.70   339.8   74.5   2,208.1   472,500   200,000
2078   1.70   336.0   73.5   2,185.3   472,500   200,000
2079   1.70   332.4   72.4   2,162.8   472,500   200,000
2080   1.70   328.7   71.4   2,140.7   472,500   200,000
1 The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2030.
2 The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
3 Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration. Estimates do not include persons legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.
4 Net other annual immigration is estimated to have averaged 375,000 persons over the period 1980-89 and 550,000 over the period 1990-99.
5 Preliminary or estimated.

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