2007 OASDI Trustees Report

II. OVERVIEW

E. CONCLUSION

Under current law the cost of Social Security will soon begin to increase faster than the program's income, because of the aging of the baby-boom generation, expected continuing low fertility, and increasing life expectancy. Based on the Trustees' best estimate, program cost will exceed tax revenues starting in 2017 and throughout the remainder of the 75-year projection period. Social Security's combined trust funds are projected to allow full payment of scheduled benefits until they become exhausted in 2041. At that time annual tax income to the trust funds is projected to equal about 75 percent of program costs. Separately, the OASI and DI funds are projected to have sufficient funds to pay full benefits on time until 2042 and 2026, respectively. By 2081, annual tax income is projected to be about 70 percent as large as the annual cost of the OASDI program.

Over the full 75-year projection period the actuarial deficit estimated for the combined trust funds is 1.95 percent of taxable payroll-somewhat smaller than the 2.02 percent deficit projected in last year's report. This deficit indicates that financial adequacy of the program for the next 75 years could be restored if increases were made equivalent to increasing the Social Security payroll tax immediately and permanently from its current level of 12.4 percent (for employees and employers combined) to 14.35 percent. Alternatively, changes could be made equivalent to reducing all current and future benefits by about 13 percent. Other ways of reducing the deficit include making transfers from general revenues or adopting some combination of approaches.

If no action were taken until the combined trust funds become exhausted in 2041, then the effects of changes would be more concentrated on fewer years:

Either of these examples would eliminate the shortfall for the 75-year period as a whole by specifically eliminating annual deficits after trust fund exhaustion. Because of the increasing average age of the population (due to expected improvement in life expectancy and continued low birth rates), Social Security's annual cost will very likely continue to grow faster than scheduled tax revenues after 2081. As a result, ensuring solvency of the system beyond 2081 would likely require further changes beyond those expected to be needed for 2081.

The projected trust fund deficits should be addressed in a timely way to allow for a gradual phasing in of the necessary changes and to provide advance notice to workers. Making adjustments sooner will allow them to be spread over more generations. Social Security plays a critical role in the lives of this year's 50 million beneficiaries, and 163 million covered workers and their families. With informed discussion, creative thinking, and timely legislative action, we will work with Congress and others to ensure that Social Security continues to protect future generations.

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