Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.5: Progressive price indexing (60th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2024: Create a new bend point at the 60th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 60th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 60th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.50 | 215 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.08 | -1.74 | 199 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.10 | -1.99 | 182 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.37 | 13.14 | -2.23 | 165 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.61 | 13.15 | -2.46 | 148 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2028 | 15.84 | 13.17 | -2.68 | 130 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2029 | 16.05 | 13.18 | -2.87 | 112 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2030 | 16.24 | 13.19 | -3.05 | 94 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2031 | 16.41 | 13.21 | -3.21 | 76 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2032 | 16.55 | 13.22 | -3.34 | 57 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2033 | 16.67 | 13.22 | -3.45 | 38 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2034 | 16.76 | 13.23 | -3.53 | 18 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2035 | 16.82 | 13.23 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2036 | 16.85 | 13.24 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2037 | 16.86 | 13.24 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2038 | 16.83 | 13.24 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2039 | 16.78 | 13.24 | -3.54 | ---- | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2040 | 16.71 | 13.23 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2041 | 16.63 | 13.23 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.29 | -0.01 | 0.27 | ||
| 2042 | 16.54 | 13.23 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2043 | 16.45 | 13.22 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2044 | 16.36 | 13.22 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2045 | 16.28 | 13.21 | -3.07 | ---- | -0.43 | -0.02 | 0.41 | ||
| 2046 | 16.20 | 13.21 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2047 | 16.13 | 13.21 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2048 | 16.06 | 13.20 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2049 | 15.98 | 13.20 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2050 | 15.92 | 13.20 | -2.72 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.03 | 0.61 | ||
| 2051 | 15.86 | 13.19 | -2.67 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2052 | 15.81 | 13.19 | -2.62 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2053 | 15.78 | 13.19 | -2.59 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2054 | 15.75 | 13.19 | -2.56 | ---- | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.79 | ||
| 2055 | 15.73 | 13.19 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.89 | -0.05 | 0.84 | ||
| 2056 | 15.72 | 13.19 | -2.53 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2057 | 15.71 | 13.19 | -2.52 | ---- | -0.99 | -0.05 | 0.94 | ||
| 2058 | 15.70 | 13.19 | -2.51 | ---- | -1.04 | -0.06 | 0.98 | ||
| 2059 | 15.69 | 13.19 | -2.50 | ---- | -1.09 | -0.06 | 1.03 | ||
| 2060 | 15.69 | 13.19 | -2.50 | ---- | -1.14 | -0.06 | 1.08 | ||
| 2061 | 15.69 | 13.19 | -2.49 | ---- | -1.19 | -0.07 | 1.12 | ||
| 2062 | 15.69 | 13.19 | -2.49 | ---- | -1.24 | -0.07 | 1.17 | ||
| 2063 | 15.69 | 13.19 | -2.50 | ---- | -1.28 | -0.07 | 1.21 | ||
| 2064 | 15.69 | 13.19 | -2.50 | ---- | -1.33 | -0.07 | 1.25 | ||
| 2065 | 15.70 | 13.19 | -2.50 | ---- | -1.37 | -0.08 | 1.30 | ||
| 2066 | 15.70 | 13.19 | -2.51 | ---- | -1.41 | -0.08 | 1.34 | ||
| 2067 | 15.72 | 13.19 | -2.52 | ---- | -1.45 | -0.08 | 1.37 | ||
| 2068 | 15.73 | 13.20 | -2.53 | ---- | -1.49 | -0.08 | 1.41 | ||
| 2069 | 15.75 | 13.20 | -2.55 | ---- | -1.53 | -0.08 | 1.44 | ||
| 2070 | 15.77 | 13.20 | -2.57 | ---- | -1.56 | -0.09 | 1.47 | ||
| 2071 | 15.78 | 13.20 | -2.58 | ---- | -1.59 | -0.09 | 1.50 | ||
| 2072 | 15.79 | 13.20 | -2.59 | ---- | -1.62 | -0.09 | 1.53 | ||
| 2073 | 15.80 | 13.20 | -2.60 | ---- | -1.65 | -0.09 | 1.56 | ||
| 2074 | 15.81 | 13.20 | -2.60 | ---- | -1.67 | -0.09 | 1.58 | ||
| 2075 | 15.81 | 13.20 | -2.61 | ---- | -1.70 | -0.09 | 1.60 | ||
| 2076 | 15.80 | 13.20 | -2.60 | ---- | -1.71 | -0.10 | 1.62 | ||
| 2077 | 15.79 | 13.20 | -2.59 | ---- | -1.73 | -0.10 | 1.64 | ||
| 2078 | 15.78 | 13.20 | -2.57 | ---- | -1.75 | -0.10 | 1.65 | ||
| 2079 | 15.76 | 13.20 | -2.56 | ---- | -1.76 | -0.10 | 1.66 | ||
| 2080 | 15.74 | 13.20 | -2.54 | ---- | -1.77 | -0.10 | 1.67 | ||
| 2081 | 15.72 | 13.20 | -2.53 | ---- | -1.78 | -0.10 | 1.68 | ||
| 2082 | 15.71 | 13.20 | -2.52 | ---- | -1.79 | -0.10 | 1.69 | ||
| 2083 | 15.71 | 13.20 | -2.52 | ---- | -1.80 | -0.10 | 1.70 | ||
| 2084 | 15.72 | 13.20 | -2.52 | ---- | -1.81 | -0.10 | 1.71 | ||
| 2085 | 15.73 | 13.20 | -2.53 | ---- | -1.82 | -0.10 | 1.72 | ||
| 2086 | 15.75 | 13.20 | -2.55 | ---- | -1.83 | -0.10 | 1.72 | ||
| 2087 | 15.78 | 13.20 | -2.58 | ---- | -1.84 | -0.10 | 1.73 | ||
| 2088 | 15.81 | 13.20 | -2.61 | ---- | -1.84 | -0.10 | 1.74 | ||
| 2089 | 15.85 | 13.21 | -2.64 | ---- | -1.85 | -0.10 | 1.75 | ||
| 2090 | 15.89 | 13.21 | -2.68 | ---- | -1.86 | -0.10 | 1.76 | ||
| 2091 | 15.93 | 13.21 | -2.72 | ---- | -1.87 | -0.10 | 1.76 | ||
| 2092 | 15.97 | 13.21 | -2.76 | ---- | -1.87 | -0.10 | 1.77 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.90% | 13.80% | -2.11% | 2034 | -0.76% | -0.04% | 0.72% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.