Description of Proposed Provision:
C1.3: After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022, index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.49 | 215 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.82 | 13.08 | -1.73 | 199 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2025 | 15.09 | 13.10 | -1.98 | 183 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2026 | 15.35 | 13.13 | -2.22 | 166 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2027 | 15.59 | 13.15 | -2.44 | 148 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2028 | 15.82 | 13.17 | -2.66 | 131 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2029 | 16.03 | 13.18 | -2.85 | 113 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2030 | 16.23 | 13.19 | -3.03 | 95 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2031 | 16.39 | 13.21 | -3.18 | 77 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2032 | 16.53 | 13.22 | -3.32 | 58 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2033 | 16.65 | 13.22 | -3.43 | 39 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.09 | ||
| 2034 | 16.74 | 13.23 | -3.51 | 19 | -0.11 | -0.00 | 0.10 | ||
| 2035 | 16.81 | 13.24 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.12 | -0.00 | 0.12 | ||
| 2036 | 16.85 | 13.24 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.00 | 0.14 | ||
| 2037 | 16.86 | 13.24 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2038 | 16.84 | 13.24 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2039 | 16.80 | 13.24 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2040 | 16.74 | 13.24 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2041 | 16.68 | 13.24 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2042 | 16.61 | 13.23 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2043 | 16.53 | 13.23 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.28 | -0.01 | 0.27 | ||
| 2044 | 16.46 | 13.23 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.30 | -0.01 | 0.29 | ||
| 2045 | 16.40 | 13.22 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.32 | -0.01 | 0.31 | ||
| 2046 | 16.33 | 13.22 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.35 | -0.01 | 0.33 | ||
| 2047 | 16.27 | 13.22 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.01 | 0.36 | ||
| 2048 | 16.22 | 13.22 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2049 | 16.16 | 13.22 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.43 | -0.02 | 0.41 | ||
| 2050 | 16.11 | 13.21 | -2.90 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.02 | 0.44 | ||
| 2051 | 16.07 | 13.21 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.02 | 0.47 | ||
| 2052 | 16.04 | 13.21 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.02 | 0.50 | ||
| 2053 | 16.02 | 13.21 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.02 | 0.53 | ||
| 2054 | 16.01 | 13.21 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.02 | 0.56 | ||
| 2055 | 16.01 | 13.21 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.59 | ||
| 2056 | 16.01 | 13.21 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.03 | 0.62 | ||
| 2057 | 16.02 | 13.21 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.03 | 0.64 | ||
| 2058 | 16.04 | 13.22 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.03 | 0.67 | ||
| 2059 | 16.05 | 13.22 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.03 | 0.70 | ||
| 2060 | 16.07 | 13.22 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.03 | 0.73 | ||
| 2061 | 16.09 | 13.22 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.03 | 0.75 | ||
| 2062 | 16.11 | 13.22 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.04 | 0.78 | ||
| 2063 | 16.13 | 13.23 | -2.90 | ---- | -0.84 | -0.04 | 0.81 | ||
| 2064 | 16.14 | 13.23 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.87 | -0.04 | 0.83 | ||
| 2065 | 16.16 | 13.23 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.90 | -0.04 | 0.86 | ||
| 2066 | 16.19 | 13.23 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.93 | -0.04 | 0.89 | ||
| 2067 | 16.21 | 13.23 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.04 | 0.92 | ||
| 2068 | 16.23 | 13.23 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.99 | -0.04 | 0.94 | ||
| 2069 | 16.26 | 13.24 | -3.02 | ---- | -1.02 | -0.05 | 0.97 | ||
| 2070 | 16.28 | 13.24 | -3.04 | ---- | -1.05 | -0.05 | 1.00 | ||
| 2071 | 16.29 | 13.24 | -3.05 | ---- | -1.08 | -0.05 | 1.03 | ||
| 2072 | 16.30 | 13.24 | -3.06 | ---- | -1.11 | -0.05 | 1.06 | ||
| 2073 | 16.31 | 13.24 | -3.07 | ---- | -1.14 | -0.05 | 1.09 | ||
| 2074 | 16.31 | 13.24 | -3.07 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.05 | 1.11 | ||
| 2075 | 16.31 | 13.24 | -3.07 | ---- | -1.19 | -0.05 | 1.14 | ||
| 2076 | 16.31 | 13.24 | -3.07 | ---- | -1.21 | -0.06 | 1.15 | ||
| 2077 | 16.30 | 13.24 | -3.05 | ---- | -1.23 | -0.06 | 1.17 | ||
| 2078 | 16.27 | 13.24 | -3.03 | ---- | -1.25 | -0.06 | 1.20 | ||
| 2079 | 16.23 | 13.24 | -3.00 | ---- | -1.28 | -0.06 | 1.22 | ||
| 2080 | 16.20 | 13.24 | -2.96 | ---- | -1.31 | -0.06 | 1.25 | ||
| 2081 | 16.17 | 13.24 | -2.94 | ---- | -1.33 | -0.06 | 1.27 | ||
| 2082 | 16.15 | 13.23 | -2.91 | ---- | -1.36 | -0.06 | 1.30 | ||
| 2083 | 16.12 | 13.23 | -2.89 | ---- | -1.39 | -0.06 | 1.32 | ||
| 2084 | 16.11 | 13.23 | -2.87 | ---- | -1.42 | -0.07 | 1.36 | ||
| 2085 | 16.09 | 13.23 | -2.86 | ---- | -1.46 | -0.07 | 1.39 | ||
| 2086 | 16.07 | 13.23 | -2.84 | ---- | -1.51 | -0.07 | 1.44 | ||
| 2087 | 16.07 | 13.23 | -2.84 | ---- | -1.55 | -0.07 | 1.48 | ||
| 2088 | 16.07 | 13.23 | -2.84 | ---- | -1.58 | -0.08 | 1.51 | ||
| 2089 | 16.10 | 13.23 | -2.87 | ---- | -1.60 | -0.08 | 1.53 | ||
| 2090 | 16.13 | 13.23 | -2.90 | ---- | -1.62 | -0.08 | 1.54 | ||
| 2091 | 16.14 | 13.23 | -2.91 | ---- | -1.66 | -0.08 | 1.58 | ||
| 2092 | 16.15 | 13.23 | -2.91 | ---- | -1.69 | -0.08 | 1.61 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.10% | 13.81% | -2.29% | 2034 | -0.56% | -0.02% | 0.54% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.