Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.2: Beginning with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2025, multiply the 90 and 32 percent PIA factors each year by 0.9925 and 0.982, respectively. Stop reductions after 2062. Beginning with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2020, multiply the 15 factor by 0.982. Stop reduction of the 15 factor after 2057. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status. Child beneficiaries and spouses with a child in care under the OASI program are not affected by this proposal.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.50 | 215 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.82 | 13.08 | -1.74 | 199 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.10 | -1.99 | 182 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.36 | 13.13 | -2.23 | 165 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2027 | 15.60 | 13.15 | -2.45 | 148 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2028 | 15.83 | 13.17 | -2.66 | 130 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2029 | 16.03 | 13.18 | -2.85 | 113 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2030 | 16.21 | 13.19 | -3.01 | 95 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2031 | 16.36 | 13.20 | -3.16 | 77 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2032 | 16.48 | 13.21 | -3.27 | 58 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2033 | 16.57 | 13.22 | -3.36 | 39 | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2034 | 16.63 | 13.22 | -3.41 | 20 | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2035 | 16.65 | 13.22 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.27 | -0.02 | 0.26 | ||
| 2036 | 16.65 | 13.23 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2037 | 16.62 | 13.23 | -3.39 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2038 | 16.54 | 13.22 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2039 | 16.44 | 13.22 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2040 | 16.32 | 13.21 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2041 | 16.19 | 13.20 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2042 | 16.04 | 13.20 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.05 | 0.77 | ||
| 2043 | 15.89 | 13.19 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.05 | 0.86 | ||
| 2044 | 15.74 | 13.18 | -2.56 | ---- | -1.02 | -0.06 | 0.96 | ||
| 2045 | 15.59 | 13.17 | -2.42 | ---- | -1.13 | -0.06 | 1.06 | ||
| 2046 | 15.44 | 13.17 | -2.27 | ---- | -1.24 | -0.07 | 1.17 | ||
| 2047 | 15.29 | 13.16 | -2.13 | ---- | -1.36 | -0.08 | 1.28 | ||
| 2048 | 15.14 | 13.15 | -1.99 | ---- | -1.48 | -0.08 | 1.40 | ||
| 2049 | 14.99 | 13.14 | -1.84 | ---- | -1.60 | -0.09 | 1.51 | ||
| 2050 | 14.84 | 13.13 | -1.70 | ---- | -1.73 | -0.10 | 1.63 | ||
| 2051 | 14.69 | 13.13 | -1.57 | ---- | -1.86 | -0.11 | 1.76 | ||
| 2052 | 14.56 | 13.12 | -1.44 | ---- | -2.00 | -0.11 | 1.89 | ||
| 2053 | 14.43 | 13.11 | -1.32 | ---- | -2.14 | -0.12 | 2.02 | ||
| 2054 | 14.31 | 13.11 | -1.20 | ---- | -2.28 | -0.13 | 2.15 | ||
| 2055 | 14.19 | 13.10 | -1.09 | ---- | -2.43 | -0.14 | 2.29 | ||
| 2056 | 14.08 | 13.09 | -0.99 | ---- | -2.57 | -0.15 | 2.43 | ||
| 2057 | 13.98 | 13.09 | -0.89 | ---- | -2.72 | -0.15 | 2.57 | ||
| 2058 | 13.87 | 13.08 | -0.79 | ---- | -2.87 | -0.16 | 2.71 | ||
| 2059 | 13.77 | 13.08 | -0.69 | ---- | -3.02 | -0.17 | 2.85 | ||
| 2060 | 13.67 | 13.07 | -0.59 | ---- | -3.16 | -0.18 | 2.98 | ||
| 2061 | 13.57 | 13.07 | -0.50 | ---- | -3.31 | -0.19 | 3.12 | ||
| 2062 | 13.47 | 13.06 | -0.41 | ---- | -3.45 | -0.20 | 3.25 | ||
| 2063 | 13.38 | 13.06 | -0.32 | ---- | -3.59 | -0.20 | 3.39 | ||
| 2064 | 13.29 | 13.05 | -0.24 | ---- | -3.73 | -0.21 | 3.52 | ||
| 2065 | 13.20 | 13.05 | -0.15 | ---- | -3.86 | -0.22 | 3.64 | ||
| 2066 | 13.12 | 13.04 | -0.08 | ---- | -4.00 | -0.23 | 3.77 | ||
| 2067 | 13.04 | 13.04 | -0.00 | ---- | -4.13 | -0.24 | 3.89 | ||
| 2068 | 12.97 | 13.04 | 0.07 | ---- | -4.25 | -0.24 | 4.01 | ||
| 2069 | 12.90 | 13.03 | 0.13 | ---- | -4.37 | -0.25 | 4.12 | ||
| 2070 | 12.84 | 13.03 | 0.19 | ---- | -4.49 | -0.26 | 4.23 | ||
| 2071 | 12.78 | 13.03 | 0.25 | ---- | -4.59 | -0.26 | 4.33 | ||
| 2072 | 12.72 | 13.02 | 0.30 | ---- | -4.69 | -0.27 | 4.43 | ||
| 2073 | 12.66 | 13.02 | 0.36 | ---- | -4.79 | -0.27 | 4.51 | ||
| 2074 | 12.60 | 13.02 | 0.41 | ---- | -4.87 | -0.28 | 4.60 | ||
| 2075 | 12.55 | 13.01 | 0.46 | ---- | -4.95 | -0.28 | 4.67 | ||
| 2076 | 12.49 | 13.01 | 0.52 | ---- | -5.02 | -0.29 | 4.74 | ||
| 2077 | 12.44 | 13.01 | 0.57 | ---- | -5.09 | -0.29 | 4.79 | ||
| 2078 | 12.39 | 13.00 | 0.62 | ---- | -5.14 | -0.29 | 4.84 | ||
| 2079 | 12.33 | 13.00 | 0.67 | ---- | -5.18 | -0.30 | 4.89 | ||
| 2080 | 12.29 | 13.00 | 0.71 | ---- | -5.22 | -0.30 | 4.93 | ||
| 2081 | 12.24 | 13.00 | 0.75 | ---- | -5.26 | -0.30 | 4.96 | ||
| 2082 | 12.21 | 12.99 | 0.78 | ---- | -5.30 | -0.30 | 4.99 | ||
| 2083 | 12.18 | 12.99 | 0.81 | ---- | -5.33 | -0.31 | 5.02 | ||
| 2084 | 12.17 | 12.99 | 0.83 | ---- | -5.36 | -0.31 | 5.05 | ||
| 2085 | 12.16 | 12.99 | 0.83 | ---- | -5.40 | -0.31 | 5.09 | ||
| 2086 | 12.15 | 12.99 | 0.84 | ---- | -5.43 | -0.31 | 5.12 | ||
| 2087 | 12.16 | 12.99 | 0.83 | ---- | -5.46 | -0.31 | 5.15 | ||
| 2088 | 12.16 | 12.99 | 0.83 | ---- | -5.49 | -0.32 | 5.18 | ||
| 2089 | 12.18 | 12.99 | 0.82 | ---- | -5.52 | -0.32 | 5.21 | ||
| 2090 | 12.19 | 12.99 | 0.80 | ---- | -5.56 | -0.32 | 5.24 | ||
| 2091 | 12.21 | 12.99 | 0.78 | ---- | -5.58 | -0.32 | 5.26 | ||
| 2092 | 12.23 | 12.99 | 0.76 | ---- | -5.61 | -0.32 | 5.29 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 14.50% | 13.72% | -0.78% | 2034 | -2.17% | -0.12% | 2.05% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.