Description of Proposed Provision:
B4.2: Increase the number of years used to calculate benefits for retirees and survivors (but not for disabled workers) from 35 to 40, phased in over the years 2018-2026.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2021 | 14.00 | 12.99 | -1.01 | 245 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2022 | 14.23 | 13.02 | -1.21 | 231 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2023 | 14.51 | 13.05 | -1.46 | 216 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2024 | 14.78 | 13.08 | -1.70 | 200 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2025 | 15.03 | 13.10 | -1.93 | 184 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2026 | 15.28 | 13.13 | -2.15 | 167 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.09 | ||
| 2027 | 15.50 | 13.14 | -2.35 | 151 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2028 | 15.71 | 13.16 | -2.55 | 134 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2029 | 15.89 | 13.17 | -2.72 | 117 | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2030 | 16.06 | 13.18 | -2.88 | 99 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2031 | 16.21 | 13.19 | -3.02 | 82 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2032 | 16.34 | 13.20 | -3.14 | 64 | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2033 | 16.44 | 13.21 | -3.23 | 46 | -0.30 | -0.02 | 0.28 | ||
| 2034 | 16.52 | 13.22 | -3.31 | 27 | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2035 | 16.58 | 13.22 | -3.36 | 7 | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.33 | ||
| 2036 | 16.61 | 13.22 | -3.39 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2037 | 16.62 | 13.23 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2038 | 16.60 | 13.23 | -3.38 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2039 | 16.56 | 13.22 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.44 | -0.02 | 0.41 | ||
| 2040 | 16.51 | 13.22 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.03 | 0.43 | ||
| 2041 | 16.44 | 13.22 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2042 | 16.37 | 13.22 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2043 | 16.30 | 13.21 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2044 | 16.24 | 13.21 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2045 | 16.19 | 13.21 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2046 | 16.13 | 13.20 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2047 | 16.09 | 13.20 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2048 | 16.05 | 13.20 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2049 | 16.01 | 13.20 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2050 | 15.98 | 13.20 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.03 | 0.56 | ||
| 2051 | 15.96 | 13.20 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.56 | ||
| 2052 | 15.95 | 13.20 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2053 | 15.96 | 13.20 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.58 | ||
| 2054 | 15.97 | 13.20 | -2.77 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2055 | 15.99 | 13.20 | -2.79 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.59 | ||
| 2056 | 16.02 | 13.20 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2057 | 16.06 | 13.21 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2058 | 16.10 | 13.21 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2059 | 16.14 | 13.21 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2060 | 16.18 | 13.22 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2061 | 16.22 | 13.22 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2062 | 16.27 | 13.22 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2063 | 16.31 | 13.22 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2064 | 16.36 | 13.23 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2065 | 16.40 | 13.23 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2066 | 16.45 | 13.23 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2067 | 16.50 | 13.24 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2068 | 16.55 | 13.24 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2069 | 16.60 | 13.24 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2070 | 16.65 | 13.25 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2071 | 16.70 | 13.25 | -3.45 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2072 | 16.74 | 13.25 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2073 | 16.77 | 13.25 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2074 | 16.80 | 13.26 | -3.54 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2075 | 16.82 | 13.26 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2076 | 16.84 | 13.26 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2077 | 16.85 | 13.26 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2078 | 16.84 | 13.26 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2079 | 16.84 | 13.26 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2080 | 16.83 | 13.26 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2081 | 16.83 | 13.26 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2082 | 16.83 | 13.26 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2083 | 16.84 | 13.26 | -3.58 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2084 | 16.85 | 13.26 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2085 | 16.88 | 13.26 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2086 | 16.91 | 13.26 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2087 | 16.94 | 13.26 | -3.68 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2088 | 16.98 | 13.27 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2089 | 17.02 | 13.27 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2090 | 17.07 | 13.27 | -3.79 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2091 | 17.11 | 13.28 | -3.84 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2092 | 17.16 | 13.28 | -3.88 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.20% | 13.81% | -2.39% | 2035 | -0.46% | -0.03% | 0.44% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.