Long Range Solvency Provisions

Description of Proposed Provision:
F3: Expand covered earnings to include employer and employee premiums for employer-sponsored group health insurance (ESI). Starting in 2021, phase out the OASDI payroll tax exclusion for ESI premiums. Set an exclusion level at the 75th percentile of premium distribution in 2021, with amounts above that subject to the payroll tax. Reduce the exclusion level each year by 10 percent of the 2021 exclusion level until fully eliminated in 2031. Eliminate the excise tax on ESI premiums starting in 2021.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll			Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll
Calendar year	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance	Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance
2017	13.41	13.03	-0.38	298	0.00	0.00	0.00
2018	13.49	12.93	-0.56	287	0.00	0.00	0.00
2019	13.70	12.95	-0.75	273	0.00	0.00	0.00
2020	13.85	12.96	-0.89	259	0.00	0.00	0.00
2021	14.02	13.14	-0.87	245	0.00	0.15	0.15
2022	14.26	13.34	-0.92	231	-0.00	0.31	0.31
2023	14.54	13.52	-1.02	218	-0.00	0.48	0.48
2024	14.83	13.73	-1.10	205	0.00	0.64	0.64
2025	15.10	13.91	-1.19	192	0.00	0.81	0.81
2026	15.38	14.11	-1.26	180	0.00	0.98	0.97
2027	15.62	14.30	-1.33	168	0.01	1.15	1.14
2028	15.87	14.49	-1.38	157	0.01	1.32	1.31
2029	16.09	14.68	-1.41	147	0.02	1.50	1.48
2030	16.29	14.87	-1.43	138	0.03	1.67	1.64
2031	16.49	14.90	-1.59	129	0.04	1.69	1.65
2032	16.66	14.92	-1.74	119	0.05	1.70	1.65
2033	16.81	14.94	-1.87	110	0.07	1.71	1.64
2034	16.94	14.96	-1.98	99	0.09	1.72	1.63
2035	17.03	14.97	-2.06	88	0.11	1.73	1.62
2036	17.12	14.98	-2.13	77	0.13	1.74	1.61
2037	17.17	15.00	-2.18	65	0.15	1.75	1.59
2038	17.20	15.00	-2.20	54	0.18	1.76	1.57
2039	17.21	15.01	-2.19	42	0.21	1.76	1.55
2040	17.20	15.02	-2.18	30	0.24	1.77	1.53
2041	17.19	15.02	-2.16	18	0.27	1.78	1.51
2042	17.17	15.03	-2.14	6	0.31	1.78	1.48
2043	17.15	15.03	-2.12	----	0.34	1.79	1.45
2044	17.14	15.03	-2.10	----	0.38	1.80	1.42
2045	17.14	15.04	-2.10	----	0.42	1.80	1.39
2046	17.14	15.04	-2.09	----	0.46	1.81	1.35
2047	17.14	15.05	-2.10	----	0.50	1.81	1.32
2048	17.15	15.05	-2.10	----	0.54	1.82	1.28
2049	17.17	15.06	-2.11	----	0.58	1.82	1.24
2050	17.19	15.06	-2.13	----	0.62	1.83	1.21
2051	17.22	15.07	-2.15	----	0.66	1.83	1.17
2052	17.26	15.07	-2.19	----	0.71	1.84	1.13
2053	17.32	15.08	-2.24	----	0.75	1.85	1.10
2054	17.38	15.09	-2.29	----	0.79	1.85	1.06
2055	17.46	15.10	-2.36	----	0.84	1.86	1.02
2056	17.54	15.11	-2.43	----	0.88	1.87	0.99
2057	17.63	15.12	-2.50	----	0.93	1.88	0.95
2058	17.71	15.13	-2.58	----	0.97	1.89	0.91
2059	17.80	15.15	-2.66	----	1.02	1.90	0.88
2060	17.89	15.16	-2.73	----	1.07	1.91	0.84
2061	17.98	15.17	-2.81	----	1.11	1.92	0.81
2062	18.08	15.19	-2.89	----	1.15	1.93	0.78
2063	18.17	15.21	-2.96	----	1.20	1.94	0.75
2064	18.26	15.22	-3.03	----	1.24	1.96	0.72
2065	18.34	15.24	-3.10	----	1.28	1.97	0.70
2066	18.43	15.26	-3.17	----	1.32	1.99	0.67
2067	18.52	15.28	-3.24	----	1.35	2.01	0.65
2068	18.61	15.30	-3.31	----	1.39	2.02	0.64
2069	18.70	15.32	-3.37	----	1.42	2.04	0.62
2070	18.78	15.34	-3.44	----	1.45	2.06	0.60
2071	18.85	15.36	-3.49	----	1.48	2.07	0.59
2072	18.92	15.38	-3.54	----	1.51	2.09	0.58
2073	18.98	15.40	-3.58	----	1.53	2.11	0.57
2074	19.03	15.42	-3.62	----	1.55	2.12	0.57
2075	19.08	15.44	-3.64	----	1.57	2.14	0.57
2076	19.11	15.46	-3.65	----	1.59	2.16	0.57
2077	19.13	15.48	-3.65	----	1.60	2.18	0.58
2078	19.14	15.50	-3.64	----	1.62	2.20	0.58
2079	19.14	15.52	-3.63	----	1.63	2.22	0.59
2080	19.15	15.54	-3.61	----	1.64	2.24	0.60
2081	19.15	15.55	-3.60	----	1.65	2.26	0.61
2082	19.16	15.57	-3.59	----	1.65	2.27	0.62
2083	19.17	15.59	-3.58	----	1.66	2.29	0.63
2084	19.20	15.61	-3.59	----	1.67	2.31	0.64
2085	19.23	15.63	-3.61	----	1.68	2.33	0.64
2086	19.27	15.64	-3.63	----	1.69	2.34	0.65
2087	19.32	15.66	-3.66	----	1.71	2.36	0.65
2088	19.37	15.68	-3.70	----	1.72	2.37	0.65
2089	19.43	15.69	-3.74	----	1.73	2.39	0.65
2090	19.49	15.71	-3.78	----	1.75	2.40	0.66
2091	19.56	15.73	-3.83	----	1.76	2.42	0.66
2092	19.62	15.75	-3.87	----	1.78	2.43	0.66

Summarized Estimates

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
Years	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance	Year of reserve depletion¹	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance
2017-2091	17.38%	15.49%	-1.89%	2042	0.71%	1.65%	0.94%
¹ Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.

Detailed Single Year Tables

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Summarized Estimates