Description of Proposed Provision:
B4.5: For retired and disabled workers, reduce the maximum number of dropout years to 4 for workers newly eligible in 2019, to 3 for workers newly eligible in 2020, and to 2 for workers newly eligible in 2021 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2021 | 14.00 | 12.99 | -1.01 | 245 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2022 | 14.22 | 13.02 | -1.20 | 231 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2023 | 14.50 | 13.05 | -1.45 | 216 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2024 | 14.76 | 13.08 | -1.68 | 200 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2025 | 15.01 | 13.10 | -1.91 | 185 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.09 | ||
| 2026 | 15.26 | 13.13 | -2.13 | 168 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2027 | 15.48 | 13.14 | -2.33 | 151 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2028 | 15.69 | 13.16 | -2.53 | 135 | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2029 | 15.88 | 13.17 | -2.70 | 118 | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2030 | 16.05 | 13.19 | -2.87 | 100 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2031 | 16.21 | 13.20 | -3.02 | 83 | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2032 | 16.35 | 13.21 | -3.14 | 65 | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2033 | 16.46 | 13.21 | -3.25 | 47 | -0.28 | -0.01 | 0.26 | ||
| 2034 | 16.55 | 13.22 | -3.33 | 28 | -0.30 | -0.01 | 0.28 | ||
| 2035 | 16.61 | 13.22 | -3.39 | 8 | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2036 | 16.66 | 13.23 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2037 | 16.67 | 13.23 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.33 | ||
| 2038 | 16.66 | 13.23 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2039 | 16.62 | 13.23 | -3.39 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2040 | 16.57 | 13.23 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2041 | 16.51 | 13.23 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2042 | 16.45 | 13.22 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.41 | -0.02 | 0.39 | ||
| 2043 | 16.38 | 13.22 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2044 | 16.33 | 13.22 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.43 | -0.02 | 0.41 | ||
| 2045 | 16.28 | 13.21 | -3.06 | ---- | -0.44 | -0.02 | 0.42 | ||
| 2046 | 16.23 | 13.21 | -3.02 | ---- | -0.45 | -0.02 | 0.43 | ||
| 2047 | 16.19 | 13.21 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.02 | 0.43 | ||
| 2048 | 16.15 | 13.21 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.02 | 0.44 | ||
| 2049 | 16.12 | 13.21 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.02 | 0.45 | ||
| 2050 | 16.09 | 13.21 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.02 | 0.45 | ||
| 2051 | 16.07 | 13.21 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.02 | 0.46 | ||
| 2052 | 16.07 | 13.21 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2053 | 16.08 | 13.21 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2054 | 16.09 | 13.21 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2055 | 16.12 | 13.21 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2056 | 16.15 | 13.21 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2057 | 16.19 | 13.22 | -2.97 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2058 | 16.23 | 13.22 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2059 | 16.27 | 13.22 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2060 | 16.31 | 13.23 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2061 | 16.35 | 13.23 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2062 | 16.40 | 13.23 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2063 | 16.45 | 13.23 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2064 | 16.49 | 13.24 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2065 | 16.54 | 13.24 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2066 | 16.59 | 13.24 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2067 | 16.64 | 13.25 | -3.39 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2068 | 16.69 | 13.25 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2069 | 16.74 | 13.25 | -3.49 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2070 | 16.79 | 13.26 | -3.53 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2071 | 16.83 | 13.26 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2072 | 16.87 | 13.26 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2073 | 16.91 | 13.26 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2074 | 16.94 | 13.27 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2075 | 16.96 | 13.27 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2076 | 16.97 | 13.27 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2077 | 16.98 | 13.27 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2078 | 16.98 | 13.27 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2079 | 16.97 | 13.27 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2080 | 16.97 | 13.27 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2081 | 16.96 | 13.27 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2082 | 16.96 | 13.27 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2083 | 16.97 | 13.27 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2084 | 16.98 | 13.27 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2085 | 17.01 | 13.27 | -3.73 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2086 | 17.03 | 13.27 | -3.76 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2087 | 17.07 | 13.27 | -3.79 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2088 | 17.11 | 13.28 | -3.83 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2089 | 17.15 | 13.28 | -3.87 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2090 | 17.20 | 13.28 | -3.91 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2091 | 17.24 | 13.29 | -3.96 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2092 | 17.29 | 13.29 | -4.00 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.28% | 13.82% | -2.46% | 2035 | -0.38% | -0.02% | 0.36% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.