2013 Annual Report of the SSI Program

B. NUMBERS OF SSI PROGRAM RECIPIENTS

This section presents projections of the numbers of persons receiving Federal SSI payments by category and age group.¹ The SSI recipient categories of: (1) aged; or (2) blind or disabled identify the criteria under which the recipient established eligibility for SSI benefits. The following paragraphs discuss the recipient categories in more detail.

•	Aged recipients establish their eligibility for SSI benefits by meeting the age-65 -or-older requirement2 and other SSI eligibility requirements. In December 2012, 1.2 million aged individuals received Federally-administered SSI payments.

•

Blind or disabled recipients establish their eligibility for SSI benefits by meeting the definition of blindness or disability and the applicable income and resource limits as well as any other SSI eligibility requirements. In December 2012, there were 7.1 million blind or disabled recipients of Federally-administered SSI payments. These recipients can fall into two subcategories based on age: blind or disabled adults (age 18 or older) and blind or disabled children (under age 18).

—

Blind or disabled adults meet the definition of blindness or disability for individuals age 18 or older and SSI income and resource limits. Students age 18 to 21 must meet the adult definition of disability; they differ from other adults only in that they qualify for a special student earned income exclusion. When blind or disabled adult recipients reach age 65, we generally continue to classify them as blind or disabled adults (rather than aged). In December 2012, 5.8 million blind or disabled individuals age 18 or older received Federally-administered SSI payments, including 925 thousand disabled or blind recipients age 65 or older.

—

Blind or disabled children meet the definition of blindness or disability for individuals under age 18. These children are subject to parent-to-child deeming until they reach the age of 18. At age 18 these individuals continue to be eligible for SSI if they meet the definition of blindness or disability for individuals age 18 or older as well as other eligibility criteria. We reclassify those who continue to be eligible after age 18 as blind or disabled adults. In December 2012, 1.3 million blind or disabled individuals under age 18 received Federally-administered SSI payments.

Table IV.B1 presents historical and projected numbers of persons applying for SSI benefits by calendar year. Figure IV.B1 presents the same information as a graph. Following a 4-year period in the mid-2000s when applications remained fairly level at 2.1 million per year, applications started increasing in 2008, largely due to the severe economic recession that began at the end of 2007 and continued into 2009. The level of applications, which continued to increase through 2010, decreased only slightly in 2011 as the economy recovered slowly but decreased at a faster rate in 2012 as the economic recovery continued. We are projecting that applications will decline to 2.1 million in 2018 and remain at that lower level through 2022, reflecting the impact of individuals coming on the SSI rolls earlier due to the economic downturn, and then grow slightly, leveling off at about 2.2 million per year in 2024. This leveling off of the projected applications is a significant change from the projected applications in the 2012 SSI Annual Report where we estimated that applications would grow roughly in line with the overall population after a period of economic recovery.

This change in the projected ultimate growth pattern of the applications is due to two improvements in our projection methodology designed to make the projections more consistent with the assumptions underlying the OASDI Trustees Report. First, we reduced application growth due to the expectation that the portion of the population that meets SSI income and resource requirements will decline over time as the CPI, and therefore the SSI Federal benefit rate, is projected to grow at a slower rate than average wages and income generally. Second, we further adjusted the growth in applications to reflect the slower growth projected for the portion of the Social Security area population composed of U.S. citizens or legal immigrants as compared to the overall population because SSI recipients must come from this portion of the population.

 

Table IV.B1.—SSI Federally-Administered Applications,^a Calendar Years 1974‑2037

[In thousands]

Calendar year		Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals
		0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled	Aged	All
Historical data:
	1974 b, c	125	590	626	1,303	158	20	1,434	1,496	2,822	2,931	5,752
	1975  b	94	276	258	443	15	d	238	145	1,086	382	1,468
	1976	82	260	250	384	8	d	175	80	984	254	1,239
	1977	100	286	246	401	7	1	174	84	1,040	259	1,298
	1978	94	276	256	413	7	d	170	88	1,046	258	1,304
	1979	106	282	268	426	7	d	178	84	1,090	262	1,352
	1980	122	310	272	438	8	1	187	89	1,151	276	1,427
	1981	78	206	173	271	5	d	88	42	733	130	864
	1982	88	246	206	278	11	1	93	48	830	141	971
	1983	102	258	225	311	5	1	122	68	902	190	1,092
	1984	103	267	247	321	7	d	178	108	944	286	1,230
	1985	114	294	297	409	7	d	151	73	1,122	223	1,345
	1986	122	316	334	426	7	1	150	81	1,205	231	1,437
	1987	108	287	299	331	7	1	134	66	1,033	200	1,233
	1988	114	282	301	317	7	1	131	69	1,021	200	1,221
	1989	116	297	323	329	7	d	146	76	1,072	222	1,294
	1990	149	335	380	356	6	d	156	71	1,226	227	1,454
	1991	237	391	453	391	7	d	159	68	1,479	227	1,706
	1992	339	453	522	407	8	d	163	64	1,728	226	1,955
	1993	473	506	570	416	7	d	158	61	1,973	218	2,191
	1994	517	492	571	402	6	d	136	52	1,989	188	2,177
	1995	473	435	524	363	6	d	121	44	1,801	165	1,966
	1996	431	393	500	345	9	1	108	44	1,678	153	1,831
	1997	306	317	438	307	8	1	82	35	1,377	117	1,494
	1998	318	317	453	331	9	1	96	39	1,428	136	1,563
	1999	338	317	470	336	6	d	107	39	1,468	145	1,614
	2000	337	321	486	341	6	d	102	39	1,493	140	1,633
	2001	351	346	502	354	4	d	98	35	1,558	134	1,691
	2002	385	388	550	384	4	d	105	38	1,711	142	1,853
	2003	400	404	565	408	4	d	100	36	1,781	135	1,916
	2004	420	438	604	452	4	d	101	37	1,919	138	2,057
	2005	429	439	604	477	5	d	112	44	1,954	156	2,110
	2006	415	437	584	484	4	d	109	41	1,925	150	2,075
	2007	421	442	578	502	5	d	105	39	1,948	143	2,091
	2008	434	482	593	535	5	d	109	38	2,048	147	2,195
	2009	497	578	666	612	5	d	110	37	2,359	147	2,506
	2010	503	599	666	645	5	1	110	38	2,419	148	2,567
	2011	498	588	646	662	6	1	114	39	2,400	153	2,553
	2012	474	555	605	651	5	1	111	36	2,291	147	2,438
Projected:
	2013	448	508	570	609	7	d	115	37	2,142	152	2,294
	2014	452	513	575	604	6	d	121	38	2,150	159	2,309
	2015	436	501	559	590	6	d	125	39	2,093	164	2,256
	2016	424	486	542	572	6	d	128	40	2,030	168	2,198
	2017	413	472	528	553	6	d	132	41	1,971	173	2,144
	2018	407	462	518	540	6	d	135	42	1,934	177	2,111
	2019	405	457	512	532	6	d	139	43	1,913	183	2,095
	2020	407	456	510	529	7	d	143	44	1,908	188	2,096
	2021	410	457	511	526	7	d	146	46	1,910	193	2,103
	2022	416	463	519	526	7	d	149	48	1,931	197	2,128
	2023	425	471	533	527	7	d	151	50	1,964	201	2,165
	2024	430	474	542	522	7	d	153	52	1,975	205	2,180
	2025	431	473	548	513	7	d	155	54	1,972	209	2,182
	2026	432	471	554	505	7	d	156	56	1,970	212	2,183
	2027	434	470	558	500	7	d	157	57	1,968	215	2,183
	2028	436	467	562	496	7	d	158	59	1,967	217	2,184
	2029	437	465	563	494	7	d	157	61	1,966	218	2,184
	2030	439	463	564	493	7	d	155	63	1,966	218	2,184
	2031	439	462	564	494	6	d	152	65	1,966	217	2,183
	2032	440	461	565	494	6	d	150	67	1,966	217	2,183
	2033	440	461	565	494	6	d	148	69	1,967	217	2,184
	2034	440	461	567	494	6	d	148	70	1,968	218	2,186
	2035	439	462	567	495	6	d	147	72	1,970	219	2,189
	2036	438	463	568	497	6	d	146	73	1,972	219	2,191
	2037	437	464	567	500	6	d	142	74	1,975	217	2,191

---

a

Based on data reported in the Integrated Workload Management System (formerly known as the District Office Workload Report).

b

“All” column estimated by the Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics using a 10-percent sample and published in the SSI Annual Statistical Report.

c

Includes conversions from State programs and applications received in 1973.

d

Fewer than 500.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. We estimate the historical split among age groups on a calendar year of age basis.

 

Figure IV.B1.—SSI Federally-Administered Applications by Age Group, Calendar Years 1975‑2040

[In thousands]

[D]

 

As part of SSA’s adjudication of these applications, we evaluate levels of income and resources available to the applicants as well as other eligibility factors including marital and citizenship status and living arrangements. In addition, well over 90 percent of the SSI applications are for disability benefits that require the DDS to evaluate the alleged impairment. Applicants may appeal an unfavorable disability determination through several administrative levels of appeal. If an applicant exhausts all administrative levels of appeal, he or she may appeal to the Federal courts.³

Table IV.B2 and figure IV.B2 present historical and projected numbers of persons who start receiving SSI payments as a result of this decision process. We count individuals as of the first month that they move into SSI payment status. For this reason, we refer to these individuals as “new recipients” rather than “awards.”⁴ From 2004 to 2007, the numbers of new recipients remained fairly level, roughly consistent with the applications received during this period. Starting in 2008, however, the numbers of new recipients increased substantially. This increase is attributable to: (1) the sharp increase in applications due to the economic downturn; (2) improvements in claims processing; and (3) initiatives to accelerate the processing of cases pending adjudication.

 

Table IV.B2.—SSI Federally-Administered New Recipients, Calendar Years 1974‑2037

[In thousands]

Calendar year  a		Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals b
		0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled	Aged	All
Historical data:
	1974 c	63	390	381	925	141	18	1,211	1,268	1,919	2,479	4,398
	1975	58	133	105	272	16	d	216	131	584	347	931
	1976	43	105	88	207	9	d	147	70	452	218	669
	1977	48	104	84	184	8	1	140	69	429	209	637
	1978	43	92	76	154	6	d	127	66	370	193	563
	1979	44	87	62	133	4	d	116	53	330	169	499
	1980	41	92	61	142	4	d	125	59	341	184	524
	1981	37	77	49	106	3	d	80	37	272	117	389
	1982	38	63	51	90	4	d	72	31	245	103	348
	1983	47	88	62	117	3	d	95	51	317	146	463
	1984	47	109	78	142	4	d	131	78	380	209	589
	1985	48	104	80	148	4	d	106	46	384	152	536
	1986	55	127	109	153	5	d	110	51	449	161	610
	1987	48	119	106	157	5	d	116	52	435	167	602
	1988	50	101	108	146	5	1	112	56	412	167	579
	1989	48	113	115	155	5	d	127	62	436	189	625
	1990	76	136	134	182	5	d	149	66	533	215	748
	1991	126	146	172	200	6	d	139	54	650	193	844
	1992	221	199	221	233	6	d	133	48	881	181	1,062
	1993	235	194	221	225	6	d	136	49	881	185	1,066
	1994	204	164	207	215	6	d	116	42	796	157	953
	1995	177	147	207	218	5	d	105	36	755	141	895
	1996	145	134	193	203	6	1	93	35	681	128	809
	1997	116	111	171	178	4	d	68	25	580	93	673
	1998	135	117	181	194	7	1	78	30	634	108	742
	1999	140	114	186	195	5	d	88	33	640	120	760
	2000	145	112	180	191	5	d	84	31	633	115	748
	2001	157	121	185	198	4	d	79	28	665	107	772
	2002	171	128	195	212	4	d	82	29	710	111	821
	2003	180	132	194	214	4	d	77	27	724	104	828
	2004	183	138	202	231	4	d	78	27	757	105	862
	2005	178	131	192	238	4	d	81	29	744	111	854
	2006	175	128	190	243	3	d	81	28	739	109	849
	2007	172	128	186	252	3	d	75	27	741	103	844
	2008	183	146	204	289	4	d	79	26	825	105	930
	2009	198	161	214	322	4	d	80	26	900	106	1,006
	2010	205	173	221	346	4	d	80	26	949	106	1,055
	2011	202	163	206	356	4	d	83	27	932	110	1,042
	2012	190	148	181	340	4	d	85	25	863	110	973
Projected:
	2013	187	140	176	331	6	d	92	26	840	118	958
	2014	181	139	175	318	5	d	93	26	818	120	938
	2015	178	138	174	313	6	d	95	27	809	122	931
	2016	175	138	174	305	6	d	97	28	797	125	922
	2017	171	138	173	294	6	d	99	28	782	128	910
	2018	170	137	171	287	6	d	101	30	771	131	902
	2019	173	139	173	288	6	d	106	31	781	137	918
	2020	171	136	169	281	6	d	107	31	764	138	902
	2021	172	136	169	279	6	d	109	32	764	141	905
	2022	174	138	171	278	7	d	111	34	768	145	913
	2023	177	139	175	277	7	d	112	35	776	147	923
	2024	182	143	181	279	7	d	116	37	792	153	945
	2025	180	140	180	270	7	d	115	38	776	153	929
	2026	180	139	181	265	7	d	116	39	773	155	927
	2027	180	139	183	262	7	d	116	40	770	156	927
	2028	181	138	184	259	7	d	116	42	768	158	926
	2029	181	137	184	258	7	d	116	43	767	158	925
	2030	185	139	188	262	6	d	116	45	781	161	942
	2031	182	136	185	257	6	d	112	46	767	158	924
	2032	182	136	185	257	6	d	110	47	765	157	922
	2033	182	136	185	256	6	d	109	48	765	156	921
	2034	181	136	186	256	6	d	108	49	765	157	922
	2035	181	136	186	257	6	d	108	50	766	157	924
	2036	184	139	190	263	6	d	108	52	782	160	942
	2037	180	137	186	259	6	d	104	51	767	155	922

---

a

Represents period in which first payment was made, not date of first eligibility for payments.

b

Historical totals estimated based on 1-percent or 10-percent sample data.

c

Totals for 1974 include recipients converted from previous State programs as well as new recipients to the SSI program during 1974.

d

Fewer than 500.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. We estimate the historical split among age groups on a calendar year of age basis.

 

Figure IV.B2.—SSI Federally-Administered New Recipients by Age Group, Calendar Years 1975‑2040

[In thousands]

[D]

The numbers of new recipients declined slightly in 2011 and more sharply in 2012, similar to the change in applications. Consistent with the pattern of projected applications, we project the total number of new recipients to continue to decline from the peak in 2010 and then to reach a relative low point by 2020. Over the longer term, we project the number of new recipients to level off and remain essentially level throughout the projection period. These projected new recipients reflect the adjustments to the projected applications to make them more consistent with the assumptions underlying the OASDI Trustees Report.

Some persons receiving SSI benefits in a year will stop receiving payments during the year because of death or the loss of SSI eligibility. A recipient can lose eligibility in two ways: (1) a nonmedical redetermination; or (2) a continuing disability review (CDR).⁵ In a redetermination, we reexamine the recipient's nonmedical factors of eligibility, including income and resources. In a CDR, we determine whether the recipient continues to meet the Social Security Act's definition of disability. For example, disabled children, upon attainment of age 18, lose eligibility if they do not qualify for benefits under the disabled adult eligibility criteria. We refer to the net reduction in the number of SSI recipients in current-payment status during a period as the number of SSI terminations for that period.

In the following tables, we have separated the numbers of persons moving out of payment status into terminations due to death (table IV.B3), as well as terminations for all other reasons (table IV.B4). Table IV.B5 and figure IV.B3 present historical and projected numbers of total terminations by calendar year. The overall total number of terminations in 2012 decreased by about 2 percent from 2011. This decrease in the number of Federally-administered terminations is due in part to a decrease in the number of terminations for State recipients not receiving Federal benefits. In addition, some of the decrease is attributable to a decrease in the number of new SSI recipients concurrently eligible for OASDI disability benefits who received SSI benefits only temporarily during the 5-month SSDI waiting period due to the 2012 decrease in new recipients.

Table IV.B3.—SSI Federally-Administered Terminations Due to Death^a, Calendar Years 1974‑2037

[In thousands]

Calendar year		Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals  b
		0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled	Aged	All
Historical data:
	1974	c	3	8	34	7	2	40	97	55	137	192
	1975	1	5	12	35	10	2	39	108	65	147	212
	1976	2	5	9	36	12	1	34	103	64	137	201
	1977	1	5	12	30	15	1	36	101	65	137	203
	1978	2	5	8	34	16	2	31	95	67	126	193
	1979	2	6	9	32	18	2	29	92	67	121	189
	1980	3	5	9	31	22	1	27	100	71	127	198
	1981	3	5	8	31	24	2	21	92	73	112	186
	1982	3	4	8	28	21	2	16	80	65	96	161
	1983	3	6	8	25	21	3	15	79	65	94	158
	1984	3	4	9	29	18	5	13	83	67	96	163
	1985	2	6	10	29	24	6	17	84	77	101	178
	1986	2	8	12	28	22	8	15	83	80	98	178
	1987	3	8	13	30	23	10	15	82	87	97	184
	1988	5	8	14	31	25	12	16	81	95	97	191
	1989	3	8	16	33	23	12	15	78	95	93	187
	1990	4	9	18	36	22	14	16	75	103	92	194
	1991	4	9	20	39	23	17	17	74	112	91	203
	1992	4	11	22	38	22	15	16	69	111	84	195
	1993	6	13	27	41	23	17	16	72	127	88	215
	1994	6	14	27	41	23	17	16	69	127	85	212
	1995	6	13	30	43	24	18	16	65	135	81	216
	1996	7	12	30	44	24	18	16	67	135	83	218
	1997	5	10	24	43	24	19	15	64	127	79	206
	1998	5	9	24	43	25	20	14	64	127	78	205
	1999	5	9	25	45	25	21	13	63	131	76	207
	2000	5	8	27	46	25	21	12	61	132	73	205
	2001	5	8	28	47	25	22	11	60	135	71	207
	2002	5	8	28	49	24	21	11	58	135	70	205
	2003	5	9	28	51	26	21	10	56	138	66	204
	2004	5	8	27	52	25	22	10	56	140	65	205
	2005	5	8	28	54	25	22	9	54	141	63	204
	2006	5	8	27	55	25	22	9	54	143	62	205
	2007	5	8	26	57	25	23	8	54	145	62	207
	2008	5	8	25	60	25	21	8	53	144	62	206
	2009	5	9	25	64	26	22	8	52	150	60	210
	2010	4	8	22	63	26	22	8	50	146	58	204
	2011	5	9	21	66	26	23	8	50	149	58	207
	2012	5	9	22	69	27	23	8	51	154	58	212
Projected:
	2013	5	10	22	72	28	24	7	49	160	56	216
	2014	4	10	22	74	28	25	8	48	163	55	218
	2015	4	10	21	75	29	25	8	48	164	56	220
	2016	4	10	21	75	30	25	8	48	165	56	221
	2017	4	10	21	74	31	26	8	48	165	56	221
	2018	4	10	20	73	32	26	8	48	165	56	221
	2019	4	10	20	71	34	26	8	48	165	56	221
	2020	4	10	20	70	35	27	8	48	165	56	221
	2021	4	10	20	69	36	27	9	48	165	56	221
	2022	4	10	20	67	37	28	9	48	165	57	222
	2023	4	10	20	66	38	28	9	48	165	57	222
	2024	4	9	20	64	39	29	9	49	166	57	223
	2025	4	9	20	63	39	30	9	49	166	58	224
	2026	4	9	20	62	40	31	9	50	166	59	225
	2027	4	9	21	61	40	32	9	50	166	59	226
	2028	3	9	21	60	39	34	9	51	166	60	226
	2029	3	9	21	59	39	35	9	52	166	61	227
	2030	3	9	21	59	38	36	9	53	167	62	228
	2031	3	9	21	59	37	38	9	54	167	63	229
	2032	3	9	20	58	36	39	9	55	167	64	231
	2033	3	9	20	58	36	40	8	56	167	65	231
	2034	3	9	20	58	35	42	8	58	167	66	232
	2035	3	9	20	57	34	43	8	59	167	67	233
	2036	3	9	20	57	33	44	8	60	167	68	235
	2037	3	9	20	57	33	45	8	61	167	69	236

---

a

Terminations where the death of the SSI recipient was recorded in SSA administrative systems as of the first month of nonpayment of SSI benefits.

b

Historical totals estimated based on 1‑percent or 10‑percent sample data.

c

Fewer than 500.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. We estimate the historical split among age groups on a calendar year of age basis.

 

Table IV.B4.—SSI Federally-Administered Terminations Due to Reasons Other Than Death, Calendar Years 1974‑2037

[In thousands]

Calendar year		Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals  a
		0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled	Aged	All
Historical data:
	1974	5	33	34	69	12	2	27	29	154	56	210
	1975	7	50	44	104	15	2	88	91	221	180	401
	1976	11	70	61	139	24	1	107	133	306	240	546
	1977	13	65	56	110	19	1	76	92	265	168	433
	1978	11	64	49	97	18	1	64	86	241	150	391
	1979	12	59	43	96	23	1	58	85	234	144	378
	1980	19	48	43	80	23	1	44	77	214	121	334
	1981	17	43	39	72	21	1	49	86	192	134	326
	1982	19	48	43	79	23	1	50	87	212	137	348
	1983	18	43	36	63	14	1	25	61	175	86	261
	1984	13	51	37	77	21	1	37	60	200	98	298
	1985	11	42	37	68	13	2	23	54	172	77	249
	1986	18	49	47	73	16	3	34	60	206	94	300
	1987	19	51	48	75	17	3	32	57	214	89	302
	1988	19	52	51	74	15	5	33	59	216	93	309
	1989	19	55	52	72	16	4	33	58	218	91	308
	1990	14	52	57	73	17	8	40	68	221	108	330
	1991	20	50	70	84	18	5	33	58	248	91	339
	1992	39	68	94	103	19	8	34	56	329	90	419
	1993	34	73	97	106	22	8	37	55	340	92	433
	1994	41	73	101	107	18	8	32	49	348	81	429
	1995	47	81	111	115	20	7	32	48	382	80	461
	1996	47	89	128	119	21	8	29	49	413	78	491
	1997	128	105	147	115	18	8	24	40	522	64	586
	1998	67	89	112	110	19	8	22	38	406	61	466
	1999	119	111	120	116	20	9	24	43	495	68	563
	2000	84	99	111	112	22	9	22	38	437	61	498
	2001	65	95	111	118	20	9	22	38	418	60	478
	2002	78	100	122	133	20	9	20	35	463	55	517
	2003	72	95	122	135	20	9	20	36	453	56	509
	2004	85	101	136	156	23	9	24	38	510	62	572
	2005	64	101	129	157	20	8	15	30	479	45	524
	2006	56	96	131	162	21	8	19	30	473	50	522
	2007	46	108	124	160	20	8	18	29	466	48	513
	2008	63	112	131	185	20	8	18	27	518	45	563
	2009	61	124	141	214	27	10	25	37	576	63	639
	2010	76	122	131	209	21	8	22	28	565	50	615
	2011	73	128	126	222	23	8	23	31	580	54	634
	2012b	66	125	119	214	8	2	37	41	533	78	611
Projected:
	2013	68	131	118	215	23	10	23	30	567	53	620
	2014	68	139	116	213	23	10	23	28	569	52	620
	2015	71	138	114	215	24	11	24	29	573	53	626
	2016	94	137	112	213	26	11	24	29	593	53	646
	2017	95	140	114	215	27	12	24	29	603	54	657
	2018	75	143	116	214	29	13	24	31	591	55	646
	2019	73	142	116	211	30	13	24	32	584	56	640
	2020	74	142	116	207	31	13	25	32	582	57	639
	2021	75	140	115	201	33	13	26	32	577	58	635
	2022	73	142	115	196	34	14	26	33	574	59	633
	2023	72	140	116	192	35	14	27	34	570	61	631
	2024	74	140	119	189	35	15	27	35	571	62	633
	2025	74	140	121	186	36	15	28	36	572	63	635
	2026	73	141	123	184	37	16	28	37	573	64	638
	2027	73	141	125	182	37	16	28	38	574	66	640
	2028	74	141	126	181	37	17	28	39	575	67	642
	2029	74	140	127	180	36	18	28	40	575	68	643
	2030	75	140	127	180	36	19	28	41	576	69	646
	2031	75	140	128	180	35	20	28	42	578	70	648
	2032	76	140	128	180	35	20	28	43	579	71	650
	2033	76	140	128	180	34	21	27	44	580	72	652
	2034	76	140	129	180	34	22	27	46	582	73	654
	2035	76	141	129	181	34	22	27	47	583	73	657
	2036	77	142	130	182	34	23	27	48	586	74	661
	2037	76	142	130	183	33	23	26	49	588	75	663

---

a

Historical totals estimated based on 1‑percent or 10‑percent sample data.

b

Terminations for 2012 reflect the reclassification of about 23,000 Federal recipients from the aged to the blind or disabled category because the State of Massachusetts took over the administration of their State Supplementation program.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. We estimate the historical split among age groups on a calendar year of age basis.

 

Table IV.B5.—SSI Federally-Administered Terminations for All Reasons, Calendar Years 1974‑2037

[In thousands]

Calendar year		Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals  a
		0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled	Aged	All
Historical data:
	1974	5	36	42	103	19	4	67	126	209	193	402
	1975	8	55	56	140	25	3	127	199	287	326	613
	1976	13	75	71	174	35	3	141	236	371	377	748
	1977	14	71	68	140	34	3	112	194	330	305	636
	1978	14	70	58	130	34	3	94	181	308	276	584
	1979	13	65	52	128	41	2	88	177	301	265	566
	1980	22	53	52	111	45	2	70	177	284	248	532
	1981	20	48	47	103	45	3	69	177	266	246	512
	1982	21	52	51	107	43	2	65	168	277	233	510
	1983	21	49	44	87	34	4	39	140	240	180	419
	1984	16	55	46	106	39	6	50	144	267	194	461
	1985	13	47	47	97	37	8	40	138	249	178	427
	1986	21	58	59	101	38	11	48	143	287	192	478
	1987	22	59	61	106	40	13	47	138	301	185	486
	1988	24	60	65	105	39	18	49	140	311	189	500
	1989	22	63	69	105	39	15	47	136	312	183	496
	1990	18	61	75	109	39	22	56	144	324	200	524
	1991	25	60	90	123	40	22	50	132	360	182	542
	1992	42	78	115	140	41	23	50	125	440	175	614
	1993	40	86	124	148	45	24	54	127	467	181	648
	1994	47	87	128	148	41	24	48	118	475	166	642
	1995	54	94	142	158	44	25	47	113	517	160	677
	1996	54	101	158	163	45	27	45	116	548	161	710
	1997	133	116	172	159	43	26	39	105	648	143	792
	1998	73	98	136	153	44	29	36	102	533	138	671
	1999	124	120	146	161	45	31	38	106	626	144	770
	2000	89	107	138	159	46	29	35	99	569	134	703
	2001	70	103	139	166	45	31	34	98	554	132	685
	2002	83	108	150	182	44	30	31	93	598	124	722
	2003	76	104	149	186	46	30	31	92	591	122	713
	2004	90	109	163	208	48	31	34	93	650	127	777
	2005	69	109	157	211	45	30	24	84	621	107	728
	2006	61	104	158	217	46	31	28	84	615	112	727
	2007	51	116	150	218	46	31	27	83	610	110	720
	2008	68	120	155	245	45	29	26	80	663	106	769
	2009	66	133	166	278	52	32	33	90	726	123	849
	2010	80	130	153	272	46	30	29	79	712	108	820
	2011	77	137	147	288	49	31	31	81	729	112	841
	2012b	70	134	140	283	35	25	44	92	687	136	823
Projected:
	2013	73	141	141	287	51	35	30	79	727	109	836
	2014	72	149	138	287	51	35	31	76	731	107	839
	2015	75	148	135	290	53	36	32	77	737	108	845
	2016	98	146	133	288	56	37	32	77	758	109	867
	2017	99	149	135	289	58	38	32	77	769	109	878
	2018	79	153	137	287	61	39	32	79	756	111	867
	2019	77	151	136	282	64	39	33	80	749	112	861
	2020	77	152	135	277	66	40	33	80	747	113	860
	2021	78	149	134	270	69	40	34	80	742	115	856
	2022	77	152	135	263	71	41	35	81	739	116	855
	2023	76	150	136	258	73	43	35	82	736	118	853
	2024	77	150	139	253	74	44	36	84	737	119	856
	2025	77	149	141	249	76	45	36	85	738	121	859
	2026	77	150	144	246	76	47	37	86	739	123	862
	2027	77	151	145	243	76	49	37	88	740	125	866
	2028	77	150	147	240	76	51	37	90	741	127	868
	2029	78	149	147	239	75	53	37	92	741	129	870
	2030	78	149	148	238	74	55	37	94	743	131	874
	2031	79	149	148	239	73	57	37	96	745	133	877
	2032	79	149	149	239	71	59	36	98	746	135	881
	2033	79	149	149	238	70	61	36	101	747	137	884
	2034	79	149	149	238	69	63	35	103	748	138	887
	2035	79	150	150	238	68	65	35	106	750	140	890
	2036	80	151	150	239	67	67	34	108	753	142	895
	2037	79	151	150	240	66	68	34	110	755	144	899

---

a

Historical totals estimated based on 1‑percent or 10‑percent sample data.

b

Terminations for 2012 reflect the reclassification of about 23,000 Federal recipients from the aged to the blind or disabled category because the State of Massachusetts took over the administration of their State Supplementation program.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. We estimate the historical split among age groups on a calendar year of age basis.

 

Figure IV.B3.—SSI Federally-Administered Terminations by Age Group, Calendar Years 1975‑2040

[In thousands]

[D]

Our projected terminations reflect the assumption that within the next few years increased resources will be available to SSA for processing CDRs, which would result in higher levels of SSI terminations, although that assumption is uncertain and it has been difficult to predict Congressional action in this area.

 

Table IV.B6.—SSI Recipients with Federal Benefits in Current-Payment Status as of December, 1974‑2037 

[In thousands]

Year		Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals
		0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled	Aged	All
Historical data:
	1974	70	338	321	756	109	13	1,010	1,019	1,606	2,029	3,635
	1975	106	395	352	838	164	14	963	1,062	1,869	2,025	3,893
	1976	124	420	352	813	208	14	864	1,003	1,932	1,867	3,799
	1977	147	442	358	800	249	16	785	980	2,013	1,765	3,778
	1978	165	460	361	791	277	16	728	958	2,069	1,686	3,755
	1979	176	472	359	764	307	16	656	938	2,094	1,593	3,687
	1980	188	500	351	750	342	17	609	925	2,149	1,533	3,682
	1981	194	514	349	720	366	17	541	888	2,160	1,430	3,590
	1982	191	517	346	683	386	21	459	871	2,144	1,329	3,473
	1983	198	555	366	692	412	28	449	890	2,250	1,339	3,590
	1984	210	595	393	700	406	48	463	884	2,352	1,347	3,699
	1985	226	634	426	717	402	72	462	860	2,477	1,322	3,799
	1986	240	688	475	739	397	91	465	827	2,630	1,291	3,922
	1987	249	717	524	756	392	113	464	804	2,751	1,268	4,019
	1988	254	738	564	774	387	127	468	777	2,844	1,245	4,089
	1989	263	757	613	799	382	145	488	760	2,959	1,247	4,206
	1990	306	788	677	840	389	156	508	749	3,156	1,257	4,412
	1991	395	833	769	897	390	166	542	736	3,451	1,279	4,730
	1992	555	920	877	970	402	173	577	727	3,898	1,304	5,202
	1993	721	990	979	1,034	410	179	604	720	4,312	1,324	5,636
	1994	839	1,032	1,071	1,089	425	182	610	716	4,638	1,326	5,965
	1995	915	1,058	1,150	1,134	435	188	601	713	4,880	1,315	6,194
	1996	954	1,066	1,198	1,176	444	192	586	711	5,029	1,296	6,326
	1997	878	1,039	1,196	1,198	457	193	547	704	4,960	1,251	6,212
	1998	885	1,038	1,238	1,243	464	197	521	705	5,063	1,226	6,289
	1999	845	1,005	1,274	1,278	474	195	499	704	5,072	1,203	6,275
	2000	844	994	1,303	1,313	484	196	483	703	5,134	1,186	6,320
	2001	879	995	1,329	1,353	493	196	461	703	5,245	1,165	6,410
	2002	912	1,002	1,344	1,394	502	200	447	705	5,354	1,152	6,505
	2003	956	1,023	1,353	1,436	511	204	430	703	5,482	1,133	6,614
	2004	990	1,044	1,350	1,476	515	208	412	699	5,584	1,111	6,695
	2005	1,034	1,065	1,347	1,523	522	215	408	705	5,706	1,113	6,819
	2006	1,076	1,095	1,334	1,575	529	220	405	704	5,830	1,109	6,939
	2007	1,119	1,124	1,316	1,634	540	228	397	704	5,960	1,101	7,061
	2008	1,151	1,173	1,306	1,704	550	234	396	704	6,119	1,100	7,219
	2009	1,198	1,229	1,302	1,793	559	241	396	704	6,322	1,101	7,423
	2010	1,238	1,294	1,307	1,900	566	251	394	704	6,557	1,099	7,656
	2011	1,276	1,345	1,305	2,002	577	260	398	703	6,765	1,101	7,866
	2012	1,311	1,381	1,287	2,089	608	278	391	694	6,955	1,085	8,040
Projected:
	2013	1,338	1,396	1,268	2,156	625	286	401	690	7,067	1,091	8,158
	2014	1,359	1,401	1,252	2,202	644	293	411	688	7,150	1,099	8,250
	2015	1,369	1,409	1,247	2,226	669	299	422	688	7,218	1,110	8,328
	2016	1,350	1,422	1,250	2,228	701	303	435	687	7,254	1,122	8,376
	2017	1,325	1,431	1,253	2,210	735	309	447	690	7,263	1,137	8,400
	2018	1,316	1,439	1,252	2,179	772	314	460	693	7,273	1,153	8,426
	2019	1,313	1,449	1,254	2,150	811	320	477	697	7,298	1,174	8,472
	2020	1,307	1,454	1,255	2,119	850	325	492	702	7,309	1,194	8,504
	2021	1,301	1,462	1,260	2,086	886	333	503	715	7,328	1,218	8,546
	2022	1,298	1,469	1,274	2,051	919	343	509	734	7,355	1,243	8,598
	2023	1,298	1,479	1,294	2,021	946	354	518	752	7,393	1,269	8,662
	2024	1,299	1,491	1,322	1,996	972	366	528	771	7,446	1,299	8,746
	2025	1,297	1,500	1,346	1,967	993	380	537	791	7,483	1,328	8,811
	2026	1,297	1,506	1,369	1,939	1,007	397	545	812	7,515	1,357	8,872
	2027	1,300	1,510	1,386	1,917	1,015	416	551	834	7,544	1,385	8,930
	2028	1,309	1,509	1,400	1,900	1,017	436	556	858	7,571	1,413	8,984
	2029	1,320	1,506	1,409	1,889	1,015	456	558	883	7,596	1,440	9,036
	2030	1,334	1,508	1,418	1,891	1,006	477	560	909	7,633	1,468	9,101
	2031	1,345	1,508	1,421	1,892	991	497	556	935	7,655	1,491	9,146
	2032	1,353	1,508	1,424	1,896	976	516	550	961	7,674	1,511	9,185
	2033	1,359	1,509	1,430	1,898	963	533	544	986	7,691	1,529	9,221
	2034	1,364	1,510	1,435	1,898	953	549	537	1,010	7,708	1,547	9,255
	2035	1,366	1,512	1,440	1,898	945	563	529	1,034	7,724	1,563	9,287
	2036	1,369	1,518	1,447	1,907	935	576	523	1,056	7,753	1,579	9,332
	2037	1,367	1,523	1,449	1,919	921	586	514	1,075	7,765	1,590	9,355

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. We estimate the historical split among age groups on a calendar year of age basis.

Combining the number of persons coming on the SSI payment rolls during a year with the number of those already receiving benefits at the beginning of the year, and subtracting the number leaving the rolls during the year, yields the number of persons receiving Federally-administered SSI payments at the end of the year. Table IV.B6 and figure IV.B4 present the number of individuals receiving Federal SSI payments, who comprise the great majority of Federally-administered recipients. The number of Federal SSI recipients at the end of 2012 increased by about 2.2 percent over the corresponding number at the end of 2011, a somewhat smaller increase than experienced between 2010 and 2011.

As figure IV.B4 illustrates, the implementation of Public Law 104-121 and Public Law 104-193 resulted in a decline in the Federal recipient population from 1996 to 1997. From the end of 1997 through the end of 2000, the Federal SSI recipient population grew at an annual rate of less than 1 percent. From the end of 2000 to the end of 2008, the Federal SSI recipient population grew an average of 1.7 percent per year. Since the end of 2008, the Federal recipient population has grown an average of 2.7 percent per year due largely to the economic recession and continuing economic downturn. As the economy slowly recovers, we project somewhat slower growth in the recipient population with year-to-year increases averaging approximately 1.2 percent from the end of 2012 through the end of 2015.

 

 

Figure IV.B4.—SSI Recipients with Federal Benefits in Current-Payment Status, by Age Group,
as of December, 1975‑2040

[In thousands]

[D]

Beginning in 2015, the numbers of Federal SSI recipients are projected to grow at a rate of less than 1 percent per year for the remainder of the 25-year projection period. In order to place this projected growth in the context of overall population growth, table IV.B7 and figure IV.B5 present Federal SSI prevalence rates, defined as SSI recipients with Federal benefits in current-payment status as percentages of selected Social Security area population totals.

In table IV.B7, we calculated the age group percentages using the corresponding population age group totals. We computed the ratios for the separate recipient categories—total blind or disabled and total aged—as percentages of differing base populations, the total Social Security Area population and the 65 and older Social Security population, respectively. As a result of this method of calculation, the percentage for the total SSI recipient population is not the arithmetic sum of the percentages for the respective recipient categories. The prevalence rate for all Federal SSI recipients declined from 1975 through the early 1980s. In 1983, this percentage started increasing and continued to increase through 1996. The prevalence rate then declined in 1997, due to the implementation of Public Law 104-121 and Public Law 104-193, but leveled out over the next few years. It has increased slightly over the past few years, and we expect it to continue to increase slightly through 2015 and then decrease gradually through the rest of the projection period.

 

Table IV.B7.—Federal SSI Prevalence Rates, as of December, 1974‑2037 

Year		Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals
		0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled a	Aged b	All c
Historical data:
	1974	0.10	0.56	0.88	2.29	0.77	0.14	7.19	11.23	0.72	8.78	1.63
	1975	.15	.63	.97	2.51	1.14	.15	6.70	11.38	.83	8.54	1.73
	1976	.18	.65	.96	2.42	1.41	.14	5.88	10.43	.85	7.68	1.67
	1977	.22	.67	.97	2.36	1.66	.17	5.21	9.94	.88	7.09	1.65
	1978	.25	.68	.96	2.32	1.80	.15	4.73	9.46	.89	6.61	1.62
	1979	.27	.68	.94	2.23	1.96	.15	4.17	9.00	.89	6.10	1.58
	1980	.29	.71	.91	2.18	2.14	.16	3.81	8.64	.91	5.74	1.56
	1981	.30	.72	.87	2.10	2.25	.16	3.33	8.07	.91	5.24	1.51
	1982	.29	.71	.83	1.99	2.33	.18	2.77	7.68	.89	4.77	1.44
	1983	.31	.76	.85	2.02	2.46	.24	2.68	7.63	.93	4.71	1.48
	1984	.32	.81	.88	2.06	2.39	.40	2.72	7.39	.96	4.65	1.51
	1985	.35	.87	.93	2.11	2.32	.58	2.67	7.00	1.00	4.47	1.53
	1986	.37	.94	1.00	2.19	2.26	.72	2.64	6.57	1.05	4.28	1.57
	1987	.38	.98	1.06	2.25	2.20	.87	2.60	6.25	1.09	4.13	1.59
	1988	.39	1.01	1.11	2.30	2.14	.97	2.59	5.90	1.12	3.99	1.60
	1989	.40	1.03	1.16	2.37	2.10	1.07	2.67	5.62	1.15	3.93	1.63
	1990	.45	1.08	1.24	2.48	2.10	1.12	2.74	5.40	1.21	3.88	1.69
	1991	.58	1.16	1.36	2.62	2.08	1.17	2.89	5.19	1.31	3.88	1.79
	1992	.80	1.29	1.51	2.79	2.12	1.19	3.04	5.00	1.46	3.89	1.95
	1993	1.02	1.40	1.64	2.92	2.15	1.20	3.16	4.85	1.60	3.90	2.09
	1994	1.17	1.48	1.75	3.02	2.22	1.20	3.18	4.71	1.70	3.86	2.19
	1995	1.26	1.53	1.83	3.10	2.27	1.21	3.13	4.59	1.77	3.78	2.25
	1996	1.31	1.55	1.87	3.12	2.32	1.21	3.06	4.46	1.81	3.70	2.27
	1997	1.20	1.52	1.85	3.05	2.40	1.18	2.87	4.32	1.76	3.54	2.21
	1998	1.21	1.52	1.88	3.05	2.45	1.18	2.75	4.24	1.78	3.45	2.22
	1999	1.15	1.47	1.92	3.02	2.52	1.15	2.65	4.16	1.77	3.37	2.19
	2000	1.14	1.45	1.95	3.00	2.58	1.14	2.57	4.09	1.77	3.30	2.18
	2001	1.18	1.44	1.98	2.98	2.63	1.13	2.46	4.04	1.80	3.22	2.19
	2002	1.22	1.44	2.00	2.96	2.67	1.13	2.38	4.00	1.82	3.16	2.21
	2003	1.28	1.47	2.01	2.95	2.70	1.14	2.27	3.94	1.84	3.08	2.22
	2004	1.31	1.49	2.01	2.92	2.70	1.15	2.16	3.87	1.86	2.99	2.23
	2005	1.37	1.52	2.00	2.92	2.69	1.18	2.11	3.86	1.88	2.96	2.25
	2006	1.42	1.55	1.99	2.92	2.67	1.20	2.04	3.82	1.91	2.90	2.27
	2007	1.47	1.58	1.97	2.94	2.64	1.22	1.94	3.79	1.93	2.82	2.29
	2008	1.51	1.63	1.98	2.99	2.59	1.25	1.87	3.76	1.97	2.76	2.32
	2009	1.57	1.69	2.00	3.06	2.55	1.28	1.81	3.73	2.02	2.70	2.37
	2010	1.63	1.76	2.03	3.16	2.51	1.31	1.75	3.69	2.08	2.64	2.42
	2011	1.68	1.81	2.04	3.27	2.45	1.35	1.69	3.64	2.13	2.57	2.47
	2012	1.73	1.84	2.03	3.37	2.44	1.42	1.57	3.54	2.17	2.44	2.51
Projected:
	2013	1.76	1.85	2.01	3.43	2.39	1.43	1.54	3.46	2.19	2.37	2.52
	2014	1.79	1.84	1.99	3.46	2.37	1.44	1.51	3.39	2.19	2.31	2.53
	2015	1.79	1.85	1.98	3.47	2.36	1.44	1.49	3.32	2.20	2.26	2.53
	2016	1.76	1.85	1.98	3.46	2.38	1.43	1.48	3.24	2.19	2.22	2.53
	2017	1.72	1.86	1.97	3.42	2.42	1.42	1.47	3.16	2.17	2.18	2.51
	2018	1.70	1.85	1.96	3.37	2.46	1.39	1.46	3.07	2.15	2.14	2.50
	2019	1.68	1.85	1.96	3.32	2.49	1.38	1.46	3.00	2.14	2.10	2.49
	2020	1.66	1.85	1.95	3.27	2.51	1.36	1.46	2.94	2.13	2.07	2.47
	2021	1.64	1.85	1.95	3.23	2.55	1.34	1.45	2.88	2.11	2.04	2.46
	2022	1.63	1.86	1.95	3.19	2.60	1.32	1.44	2.81	2.10	2.02	2.46
	2023	1.62	1.86	1.96	3.18	2.62	1.30	1.43	2.76	2.10	2.00	2.46
	2024	1.61	1.87	1.98	3.17	2.63	1.29	1.43	2.72	2.09	1.99	2.46
	2025	1.60	1.88	1.98	3.15	2.64	1.29	1.43	2.68	2.09	1.98	2.46
	2026	1.59	1.89	1.99	3.13	2.63	1.30	1.42	2.65	2.08	1.97	2.46
	2027	1.58	1.89	1.99	3.12	2.61	1.31	1.42	2.62	2.07	1.96	2.46
	2028	1.58	1.89	1.99	3.11	2.59	1.32	1.41	2.60	2.07	1.96	2.45
	2029	1.58	1.89	1.99	3.10	2.57	1.33	1.41	2.58	2.06	1.95	2.45
	2030	1.58	1.89	1.99	3.09	2.54	1.34	1.41	2.56	2.06	1.96	2.45
	2031	1.58	1.89	1.99	3.08	2.52	1.35	1.41	2.54	2.05	1.96	2.45
	2032	1.58	1.88	1.99	3.07	2.50	1.36	1.41	2.52	2.04	1.96	2.44
	2033	1.58	1.88	1.98	3.06	2.48	1.36	1.40	2.51	2.03	1.96	2.44
	2034	1.58	1.88	1.98	3.05	2.47	1.36	1.39	2.50	2.03	1.96	2.43
	2035	1.58	1.87	1.98	3.04	2.46	1.35	1.38	2.48	2.02	1.95	2.43
	2036	1.58	1.87	1.98	3.04	2.45	1.35	1.37	2.47	2.02	1.95	2.43
	2037	1.57	1.86	1.98	3.03	2.44	1.34	1.36	2.46	2.01	1.95	2.42

---

a

Blind or disabled recipients as a percentage of the total Social Security Area population.

b

Aged recipients as a percentage of the 65 or older Social Security Area population.

c

Total recipients as a percentage of the total Social Security Area population. Totals do not equal sums of components due to overlapping populations.

 

The various subcategories of Federal SSI recipients follow significantly different growth patterns in relation to their respective population totals. The overall aged prevalence rate has declined steadily throughout the historical period. We project that it will continue to decline through 2027, and then remain fairly level thereafter through the rest of the projection period, as the portion of the aged population over 74 increases. In contrast, except for decreases in the late 1990s due to the eligibility redeterminations and continuing disability reviews mandated by Public Law 104-193, the prevalence rate for blind or disabled children increased steadily throughout the historical period, with the increase being quite steep in the early 1990s. The total blind or disabled prevalence rate (as a percentage of the total population at all ages) remained fairly level until the early 1980s, when it started increasing and then continued to increase through 1996. The blind or disabled prevalence rate declined slightly in the late 1990s due to the effects of welfare reform legislation, but resumed its upward trend in 2000. That upward trend has continued through 2012, and we estimate it will continue through 2015, reaching 2.2 percent of the total population. In the later years of the projection period, the estimated overall prevalence rate for blind or disabled recipients will gradually decline due to: (1) the SSI-eligible population growing more slowly than the overall population, (2) a smaller proportion of the population becoming new recipients than during the recent economic slowdown; (3) the changing age distribution in the population; and (4) our assumption that SSA will receive the resources necessary to process normal CDR and nonmedical redetermination workloads.

 

Figure IV.B5.—Federal SSI Prevalence Rates, by Age Group, as of December, 1975‑2040 

[D]

Figure IV.B6 presents prevalence rates on an age-sex-adjusted basis, adjusted to the age-sex distribution of the Social Security area population for the year 2004. Adjusting these rates in this manner is useful when comparing rates over a long period of time because the age-sex-adjusted rates control for the effects that a changing age-sex distribution in the population can have on prevalence rates over time. We do not, however, account for the change over time of other factors that may affect the percentage of the Social Security area population that is SSI-eligible.

A review of the chart below shows that the age-sex adjustment does not change the overall pattern of the prevalence rates. The overall SSI prevalence rate on an age-sex adjusted basis is higher in the early years and lower in the projection period than the gross prevalence rate. The adjustment generally results in a more noticeable effect for the aged, especially in the early years of the SSI program, due in part to the aged prevalence rate being quite high in those early years.

 

Figure IV.B6.—Age-Sex-Adjusted Federal SSI Prevalence Rates, by Eligibility Category, as of December, 1975‑2040 

[D]

Table IV.B8 presents historical and projected numbers of individuals who receive only a Federally-administered State supplement.

 

Table IV.B8.—SSI Recipients with Federally-Administered State Supplementation Benefits Only,
in Current-Payment Status as of December, 1974‑2037 

[In thousands]

Year		Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals
		0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled	Aged	All
Historical data:
	1974	1	12	20	57	13	1	138	120	104	257	361
	1975	1	15	25	74	21	2	144	138	139	282	421
	1976	1	14	27	87	26	2	134	146	156	280	437
	1977	1	16	27	94	35	2	136	150	174	286	460
	1978	1	16	26	93	41	2	127	155	180	282	462
	1979	1	18	25	89	49	2	121	157	184	278	462
	1980	2	20	26	82	52	2	112	162	185	274	460
	1981	1	19	26	75	58	2	94	155	181	248	429
	1982	1	18	23	68	53	2	82	137	165	219	384
	1983	1	17	19	50	44	4	65	111	136	176	312
	1984	1	18	23	50	47	7	68	116	147	184	331
	1985	1	21	28	53	45	8	67	115	157	182	339
	1986	1	23	31	55	45	11	66	116	166	182	348
	1987	1	26	36	60	43	12	72	115	178	187	366
	1988	1	26	42	59	44	14	74	114	187	188	375
	1989	2	28	45	60	45	16	76	115	195	192	387
	1990	2	31	54	60	44	17	82	116	208	197	405
	1991	2	29	54	59	42	17	78	108	203	186	389
	1992	2	29	55	59	37	16	70	97	197	167	364
	1993	2	29	58	59	34	15	64	88	197	151	348
	1994	2	28	59	56	32	14	59	81	192	139	331
	1995	3	25	59	56	32	14	54	77	188	131	320
	1996	2	21	54	53	29	13	49	68	172	116	288
	1997	2	20	55	53	29	13	46	65	172	111	283
	1998	2	18	54	55	28	13	43	63	171	106	277
	1999	2	18	57	58	28	13	43	62	177	105	282
	2000	2	17	57	60	29	13	42	61	179	103	282
	2001	2	17	56	62	29	12	41	59	179	100	278
	2002	3	17	57	64	30	12	42	58	183	100	283
	2003	3	18	58	67	30	12	42	58	188	100	288
	2004	3	18	58	70	31	12	43	58	193	100	293
	2005	3	18	56	73	31	12	44	58	193	102	295
	2006	3	18	55	76	32	12	45	58	194	103	297
	2007	2	18	53	77	32	12	46	57	195	103	298
	2008	3	18	52	80	34	12	46	57	198	103	301
	2009	2	16	43	69	29	11	38	48	168	85	254
	2010	2	16	42	71	29	11	37	48	171	85	257
	2011	2	16	39	70	29	11	35	45	166	81	246
	2012	1	14	34	64	28	11	31	40	152	71	223
Projected:
	2013	1	14	32	65	29	11	34	41	153	74	227
	2014	1	15	32	67	31	11	37	42	156	79	235
	2015	1	15	32	68	32	11	39	43	160	83	243
	2016	1	16	33	69	34	12	41	45	164	86	250
	2017	1	16	33	70	36	12	43	46	168	90	258
	2018	2	17	34	71	38	12	46	48	174	94	267
	2019	2	17	36	72	40	13	48	50	180	98	278
	2020	2	18	37	73	42	13	50	52	185	102	287
	2021	2	18	37	73	44	14	52	54	188	106	294
	2022	2	18	38	72	46	14	53	56	191	109	300
	2023	2	18	38	71	48	15	54	59	193	112	305
	2024	2	18	39	70	49	16	55	61	195	116	310
	2025	2	18	40	69	51	16	56	63	196	119	315
	2026	2	18	41	68	51	17	57	65	197	122	319
	2027	2	18	41	68	52	18	57	67	198	124	323
	2028	2	18	42	67	52	19	58	69	199	127	326
	2029	2	18	42	66	52	20	58	72	200	129	329
	2030	2	18	42	66	51	21	58	74	201	132	333
	2031	2	18	42	66	50	22	58	76	201	134	335
	2032	2	19	42	67	50	23	57	78	202	135	337
	2033	2	19	43	67	49	24	56	80	202	137	339
	2034	2	19	43	67	48	25	55	82	203	138	341
	2035	2	19	43	66	48	25	55	84	203	139	342
	2036	2	19	43	67	48	26	54	86	203	140	344
	2037	2	19	43	67	47	26	53	88	204	141	345

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. We estimate the historical split among age groups on a calendar year of age basis.

Table IV.B9 displays the combined numbers of persons receiving either a Federal SSI payment or a Federally-administered State supplement.

Certain noteworthy patterns appear in the numbers of SSI recipients in the recent past and projections of such numbers for the near future.  The total number of SSI recipients increased rapidly in the early 1990s due to the growth in the numbers of disabled adults and children. The  growth  in  the  numbers  of  children  receiving  SSI  resulted  in large part  from  the  Supreme  Court decision in the case of Sullivan v. Zebley, 110 S. Ct. 885 (1990), which greatly expanded the criteria used for determining disability  for  children. The growth in   the numbers of  disabled adults  is  a more  complicated phenomenon. Extensive research conducted under contract to SSA and the Department of Health and Human Services suggests that this growth was the result of a combination of factors including: (1) demographic trends; (2) a downturn in the economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s; (3) long-term structural changes in the economy; and (4) changes in other support programs (in particular, the reduction or elimination of general assistance programs in certain States). The 1996 welfare reform legislation, the economic downturn in the early 2000s, and the recent economic recession that began late in 2007 have contributed to the more recent changes in program participation.

 

Table IV.B9.—SSI Recipients with Federally-Administered Benefits in Current-Payment Status
as of December, 1974‑2037 

[In thousands]

Year		Blind or disabled, by age group						Aged, by age group		Totals
		0-17	18-34	35-49	50-64	65-74	75 or older	65-74	75 or older	Blind or disabled	Aged	All
Historical data:
	1974	71	349	341	813	122	14	1,148	1,138	1,710	2,286	3,996
	1975	107	410	378	911	185	16	1,107	1,200	2,007	2,307	4,314
	1976	125	434	379	900	234	15	999	1,149	2,088	2,148	4,236
	1977	147	458	385	893	284	18	921	1,130	2,187	2,051	4,238
	1978	166	476	387	884	319	17	855	1,113	2,249	1,968	4,217
	1979	177	490	384	852	357	17	777	1,095	2,278	1,872	4,150
	1980	190	521	377	833	393	20	721	1,086	2,334	1,808	4,142
	1981	195	533	375	795	424	19	635	1,043	2,341	1,678	4,019
	1982	192	535	369	751	439	23	541	1,008	2,309	1,549	3,858
	1983	198	572	386	742	456	32	514	1,001	2,386	1,515	3,901
	1984	212	613	417	751	453	54	531	999	2,499	1,530	4,029
	1985	227	655	454	769	447	80	530	975	2,634	1,504	4,138
	1986	241	711	506	794	442	102	531	942	2,796	1,473	4,269
	1987	251	743	560	816	436	124	536	920	2,930	1,455	4,385
	1988	255	764	606	833	431	142	543	891	3,030	1,433	4,464
	1989	265	785	658	859	427	160	564	875	3,154	1,439	4,593
	1990	309	819	731	900	432	172	589	865	3,363	1,454	4,817
	1991	397	863	823	956	432	183	620	845	3,654	1,465	5,118
	1992	556	949	932	1,029	440	189	647	824	4,095	1,471	5,566
	1993	723	1,019	1,036	1,093	445	194	667	808	4,509	1,475	5,984
	1994	841	1,060	1,130	1,146	457	196	669	797	4,830	1,466	6,296
	1995	917	1,083	1,209	1,190	467	202	656	790	5,068	1,446	6,514
	1996	955	1,087	1,252	1,229	472	205	634	778	5,201	1,413	6,614
	1997	880	1,059	1,251	1,252	486	205	593	770	5,133	1,362	6,495
	1998	887	1,056	1,292	1,298	492	209	564	768	5,234	1,332	6,566
	1999	847	1,024	1,331	1,336	503	208	543	765	5,249	1,308	6,557
	2000	847	1,011	1,360	1,373	513	209	525	764	5,312	1,289	6,602
	2001	882	1,012	1,385	1,415	522	209	502	762	5,424	1,264	6,688
	2002	915	1,019	1,401	1,458	532	212	489	763	5,536	1,252	6,788
	2003	959	1,040	1,410	1,503	541	216	471	761	5,670	1,233	6,902
	2004	993	1,062	1,408	1,546	546	221	455	756	5,777	1,211	6,988
	2005	1,036	1,083	1,404	1,596	553	228	452	763	5,900	1,214	7,114
	2006	1,079	1,113	1,388	1,651	560	232	450	762	6,024	1,212	7,236
	2007	1,121	1,142	1,369	1,711	572	240	443	761	6,155	1,205	7,360
	2008	1,154	1,191	1,358	1,784	584	246	442	761	6,317	1,203	7,521
	2009	1,200	1,244	1,345	1,862	588	252	434	752	6,491	1,186	7,677
	2010	1,239	1,311	1,350	1,971	595	262	432	752	6,728	1,184	7,912
	2011	1,277	1,361	1,344	2,072	606	271	434	748	6,931	1,182	8,113
	2012	1,312	1,395	1,321	2,154	637	289	422	734	7,107	1,156	8,263
Projected:
	2013	1,339	1,410	1,300	2,221	654	297	435	731	7,220	1,165	8,385
	2014	1,360	1,415	1,284	2,269	675	304	447	731	7,307	1,178	8,485
	2015	1,371	1,424	1,279	2,294	701	310	461	731	7,379	1,192	8,571
	2016	1,351	1,437	1,283	2,297	735	315	477	731	7,418	1,208	8,626
	2017	1,326	1,447	1,286	2,279	771	321	491	736	7,431	1,227	8,658
	2018	1,318	1,455	1,286	2,250	810	327	506	741	7,447	1,247	8,693
	2019	1,315	1,466	1,290	2,223	851	333	525	747	7,478	1,272	8,750
	2020	1,309	1,472	1,291	2,192	892	339	543	754	7,494	1,296	8,791
	2021	1,303	1,480	1,297	2,159	931	347	555	768	7,516	1,323	8,840
	2022	1,300	1,487	1,312	2,124	965	358	562	790	7,546	1,352	8,897
	2023	1,300	1,497	1,333	2,092	995	369	571	810	7,586	1,381	8,967
	2024	1,301	1,509	1,361	2,067	1,021	382	583	832	7,641	1,415	9,056
	2025	1,299	1,518	1,386	2,036	1,043	396	593	854	7,680	1,447	9,126
	2026	1,299	1,524	1,409	2,008	1,058	414	601	877	7,713	1,479	9,191
	2027	1,302	1,528	1,428	1,985	1,067	434	608	901	7,743	1,510	9,252
	2028	1,310	1,527	1,442	1,967	1,069	455	613	927	7,770	1,540	9,311
	2029	1,322	1,524	1,451	1,955	1,066	477	616	954	7,796	1,570	9,366
	2030	1,336	1,527	1,460	1,957	1,057	498	618	983	7,834	1,600	9,434
	2031	1,347	1,526	1,464	1,959	1,042	519	614	1,011	7,856	1,625	9,481
	2032	1,355	1,527	1,467	1,962	1,025	539	607	1,039	7,876	1,646	9,522
	2033	1,361	1,527	1,472	1,965	1,011	557	600	1,066	7,894	1,666	9,560
	2034	1,365	1,528	1,478	1,964	1,001	573	592	1,093	7,911	1,684	9,595
	2035	1,367	1,530	1,483	1,964	993	588	584	1,118	7,927	1,702	9,629
	2036	1,371	1,537	1,491	1,974	983	601	577	1,142	7,956	1,719	9,676
	2037	1,369	1,542	1,492	1,986	968	612	568	1,163	7,969	1,730	9,699

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components. We estimate the historical split among age groups on a calendar year of age basis.

 

---

1

We project recipient flows on a calendar-year-age basis, with activity throughout a given year tabulated according to age at the end of the calendar year. Tabulations of recipients in current-payment status are provided as of December of each calendar year at which time calendar year of age and age last birthday are the same. However, we summarize the tabulations that reflect activity throughout the calendar year according to calendar year of age, and thus they will not correspond precisely to tabulations summarized according to age last birthday. For example, applications for the 0-17 age group for a given calendar year include applications only for those individuals who are under 18 at the end of the calendar year.

2

Individuals may apply for SSI benefits based on age as of the day preceding their 65th birthday.

3

See section V.C for data on recent experience in the disability decision process.

4

In addition, these counts differ slightly from other similar totals identified as “awards” and published by the Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics (ORES) in the Annual Statistical Supplement to the Social Security Bulletin. The ORES totals are similar in concept to those used in this report, but differ slightly due to the timing of the action being tabulated. For example, ORES does not count a disability benefit as being awarded until the disability decision is made. In contrast, under the procedures used in this report, individuals first coming on the SSI rolls through a finding of presumptive disability would be counted as a “new recipient” in the first month of presumptive disability payment.

5

We present some historical details on income and resource redeterminations and the results of continuing disability reviews in section V.D. Section V.E presents information on certain incentive programs intended to encourage disabled SSI recipients to return to work.