This section presents historical data and projections of the numbers of (1) persons applying for SSI payments; (2) new recipients of SSI payments as a result of an application; (3) terminations from SSI payment status; and, (4) recipients of federally administered SSI payments. These historical data and projections are presented by category and age group.
1 All of the corresponding tables are located at the end of this section.
Figure IV.B1 presents historical and projected numbers of persons applying for SSI payments at SSA field offices, including applications taken by telephone and online, by calendar year.
3 Following a 4-year period in the mid-2000s when the number of applications remained fairly level at 2.1 million per year, applications increased from 2008 through 2010, largely due to the recession of 2007-2009. The level of applications generally decreased from 2010 through 2018 as the economy recovered. Applications in 2019 remained at about the same level as experienced in 2018. The number of applications decreased sharply in 2020 and remained low in 2021, due to a number of pandemic-related effects. In 2022 and 2023, the number of applications increased moderately, which resulted from applications increasing substantially at ages 0 to 17 and increasing more moderately at ages 18-64. Applications at ages 65 and older, decreased from the 2022 level, because special outreach efforts in 2021 and 2022 were concluded by the end of 2022. In 2024 through 2027, the number of applications is projected to increase, reaching levels more consistent with longer-term expected experience. Some of the increase in the number of applications that we project during this period is attributable to three regulations recently published as final rules, which affect the in-kind support and maintenance policies.
4 The number of applications is projected to be 1.8 million in 2027, and then remain at roughly this level thereafter.
5 This longer-term level is slightly lower than projected in last year's report primarily due to assumed lower disability incidence as similarly assumed in the 2024 OASDI Trustees Report.
As part of SSA’s adjudication of these applications, the levels of income and resources available to the applicants are evaluated along with other eligibility factors including marital and citizenship status and living arrangements. In addition, generally about 90 percent of the SSI applications are for disability payments that require the State Disability Determination Services (DDS) to evaluate the alleged impairment(s). Applicants may appeal an unfavorable disability determination through several administrative levels of appeal. If applicants pursue all administrative levels of appeal without success, they may appeal to the Federal courts.
6 An applicant may decide at any point in this process to file a new application for benefits in lieu of continuing through the prescribed appeals process, generally provided that the individual does not currently have an appeal of an SSI application pending in this process.
7Figure IV.B2 presents historical and projected numbers of persons who start receiving SSI payments as a result of this decision process
8. From 2004 to 2007, the numbers of new recipients remained fairly level, roughly consistent with the applications received during this period. From 2007 to 2010, however, the numbers of new recipients increased substantially. This increase is primarily attributable to the sharp increase in applications due to the 2007-2009 economic recession.
The numbers of new recipients declined generally from 2010 to 2018, leveled off in 2019, and decreased sharply in 2020 and 2021, following the pattern of applications. The number of new recipients declined slightly in 2022 and increased in 2023. The projected number of new recipients increases steadily from 2023 to 2027, and then decreases gradually from 2027 to 2031. Similar to the applications, some of the increase in the number of new recipients that we project early in the projection period is attributable to three regulations recently published as final rules, which affect the in-kind support and maintenance policies. After 2031, the number of new recipients is projected to stay fairly level through the remainder of the projection period, despite the growing size of the legal resident population. This reflects the effects of the same factors assumed to affect the level of projected applications, as discussed previously. The projected numbers of new recipients throughout the projection period reflect the expected effects of the recent regulatory change to reduce from 15 years to 5 years the period of time that SSA will consider for past relevant work in the disability adjudication process.
9 We estimate this regulatory change will increase the number of new recipients from blind and disabled applicants throughout the projection period.
Some persons receiving SSI payments in a year will stop receiving payments during the year because of death or the loss of SSI eligibility. SSA uses three primary tools to assess continuing eligibility: (1) a nonmedical redetermination, including limited issues; (2) a medical continuing disability review (CDR); and (3) medical redeterminations of SSI child recipients at age 18 using the adult initial disability criteria.
10 In a non-medical redetermination, the recipient's non-medical factors of eligibility are reexamined, including income, resources, and living arrangements. In a medical CDR, the recipient’s medical condition is reevaluated to determine whether the recipient continues to meet the Act's definition of disability. Medical redeterminations of disabled children attaining age 18 evaluate whether such recipients qualify for payments using the adult medical eligibility criteria. The net reduction in the number of SSI recipients in
current-payment status during a period is referred to as the number of SSI terminations for that period.
Figure IV.B3 presents historical and projected numbers of total terminations by calendar year.
11 The total number of terminations of federally administered recipients in 2023 increased from 2022, by about 1 percent. This change in total terminations is the net effect of differing changes by reason for termination. Terminations due to death decreased by about 10 percent in 2023 compared to 2022 as the pandemic further abated, while the net number of terminations for all other reasons increased by about 8 percent in 2023 from 2022 levels. The net number of terminations for reasons other than death increased largely because SSA resumed performing non-medical redeterminations at a level comparable to pre-pandemic years.
The number of SSI recipients receiving Federal payments increased rapidly in the early 1990s mainly due to the growth in the numbers of disabled adults and children. The growth in the numbers of children receiving SSI resulted in large part from the Supreme Court decision in the case of Sullivan v. Zebley, 110 S. Ct. 885 (1990), which greatly expanded the criteria used for determining disability for children. The growth in the numbers of disabled adults is a more complicated phenomenon. Extensive research conducted under contract to SSA and the Department of Health and Human Services suggested that this growth was the result of a combination of factors including: (1) demographic trends; (2) a downturn in the economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s; (3) long-term structural changes in the economy; and (4) changes in other support programs (in particular, the reduction or elimination of general assistance programs in certain States).
13,14 The 1996 welfare reform legislation, the economic downturn in the early 2000s, the economic recession that began in 2007, the strong economy and dramatic decline in applications during the period of 2011 through 2019, and the COVID-19 pandemic beginning in 2020, have contributed to the more recent changes in program participation.
Figure IV.B4 shows a decline in the Federal SSI population from 1996 to 1997. This was a result of the implementation of PL 104-121 and PL 104-193, which modified several SSI eligibility rules. See section V.A for more information. From the end of 1997 through the end of 2000, the Federal SSI recipient population grew at an annual rate of less than 1 percent. From the end of 2000 to the end of 2008, the Federal SSI recipient population grew an average of 1.7 percent per year. From the end of 2008 to the end of 2012, the Federal SSI recipient population grew an average of 2.7 percent per year due largely to the 2007-2009 economic recession and the slow recovery from that economic downturn. In 2013 and 2014, the Federal SSI recipient growth slowed, and beginning in 2015, the Federal SSI recipient population began to decrease, reflecting the net effect of lower numbers of applications and new recipients and the increased number of medical CDRs conducted between 2015 and 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a further sharp decrease in the number of applications and new recipients as well as a sharp increase in terminations due to death, which was partially offset by the temporary suspension of medical CDRs and non-medical redeterminations in 2020, with the net effect being continued decrease in the recipient population from 2019 through 2021. Recipients in current-payment status continued to decrease from 2021 levels by about 2.1 percent in 2022 and an additional 1.6 percent in 2023. As the proportion of the population applying for SSI payments is assumed to return to more nearly the expected long-term average, the number of recipients in current payment status is projected to increase significantly through 2028. Thereafter, as the proportion of the population eligible for SSI payments declines as discussed in section
2, the numbers of Federal SSI recipients are projected to grow more slowly at an average rate of less than 1 percent per year for the remainder of the 25-year projection period.
In order to place this projected growth in the context of overall population growth, figure IV.B5 presents Federal SSI prevalence rates by age group, defined as SSI recipients with Federal payments in current-payment status as percentages of the total Social Security area population for each age group.
15
Figure IV.B6 presents prevalence rates for the two eligibility categories -
blind and disabled and
aged16 - as well as for the SSI program as a whole. It also shows these rates on an age-sex-adjusted basis, adjusted to the age-sex distribution of the Social Security area population for the year 2000. Adjusting these rates in this manner is useful when comparing rates over a long period of time because the age-sex-adjusted rates control for the effects that a changing age-sex distribution in the population can have on prevalence rates over time. That adjustment, however, does not account for the change over time of other factors that may affect the percentage of the Social Security area population that is SSI eligible.
Figure IV.B6 shows that the age-sex adjustment does not fundamentally change the overall pattern of the prevalence rates. The total SSI prevalence rate on an age-sex adjusted basis is higher before 2000 and lower after 2000 than the gross prevalence rate due to the changing age distribution of the population. The adjustment generally results in a more noticeable effect for the aged, especially in the early years of the SSI program, because the prevalence rate for ages 75 and older was much higher than for ages 65 to 74.
The prevalence rates for the eligibility categories of Federal SSI recipients follow significantly different growth patterns. The overall aged prevalence rate has declined steadily throughout the historical period. After increasing slightly from 2024 to 2026, gradual declines continue throughout the projection period. In contrast, except for decreases in the late 1990s due to the medical eligibility redeterminations and CDRs mandated by Public Law 104-193, the prevalence rate for blind or disabled children increased steadily through 2013, with the increase being relatively steep in the early 1990s. Since then, the prevalence rate for child recipients has decreased slightly each year from 2014 through 2023 which is primarily attributable to the (1) increased number of medical CDRs for these children over the past few years, and (2) the continuing drop in applications for SSI payments, including a further substantial decline in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic. The total blind or disabled prevalence rate (as a percentage of the total Social Security area population at all ages) remained fairly level until the early 1980s, when it started increasing and then continued to increase through 1996. The blind or disabled prevalence rate declined slightly in the late 1990s due to the effects of welfare reform legislation but resumed an upward trend in 2000. That upward trend continued through 2013, but experienced slight decreases in 2014 through 2023. The projected overall prevalence rate for blind or disabled recipients decreases slightly through 2025, increases slightly through 2028, and then gradually declines throughout the remainder of the projection period due to: (1) the population potentially eligible for SSI (i.e., the legal resident population) is projected to grow more slowly than the overall Social Security area population, (2) a smaller proportion of the population becoming new recipients than during the 2007-2009 economic recession; (3) the changing age distribution of the population; and (4) the assumption that SSA will receive sufficient administrative funding to process medical CDR and non-medical redetermination workloads, and those authorized resources will continue to be appropriated through the 25-year projection period.
17The total number of federally administered SSI recipients includes recipients only receiving a federally administered State supplement, as well as those receiving a Federal payment. Table IV.B8 presents historical and projected numbers of individuals who receive only a federally administered State supplement. Such recipients have countable income that exceeds the Federal benefit rate but which is lower than the combined amount of the Federal benefit rate and the State supplementary benefit level. These individuals must meet all other criteria required in order to be eligible for a Federal SSI payment. The vast majority of these individuals are concurrently beneficiaries of OASDI benefits. The historical and projected numbers do not include individuals eligible for a state supplement that is not administered by SSA.
Table IV.B9 displays the combined numbers of persons receiving either a Federal SSI payment or a federally administered State supplement. This is the total number of SSI recipients with a benefit administered by SSA, which follows largely the same patterns of growth as the number of recipients receiving a Federal payment.
