The Office of the Chief Actuary at the Social Security Administration uses a set of models to project future income and cost under the OASDI program. These models rely not only on the demographic and economic assumptions described in the previous sections, but also on a number of program-specific assumptions and methods. Values of many program parameters change from year to year as prescribed by formulas set out in the
Social Security Act. These program parameters affect the level of
payroll taxes collected and the level of benefits paid. The office uses more complex models to project the numbers of future workers covered under OASDI and the levels of their
covered earnings, as well as the numbers of future beneficiaries and the expected levels of their benefits. The following subsections provide descriptions of these program-specific assumptions and methods.
The Social Security Act requires that certain parameters affecting the determination of OASDI benefits and taxes be adjusted annually to reflect changes in particular economic measures. Formulas prescribed in the law, applied to reported statistics, change these program parameters annually. The law bases these automatic adjustments on measured changes in the national
average wage index (AWI) and the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI).
1 This section shows values for program parameters adjusted using these indices from the time that these adjustments became effective through 2029. Projected values for future years depend on the economic assumptions described in the preceding section of this report.
Tables V.C1 and
V.C2 present the historical and projected values of the CPI-based benefit increases, the
AWI series, and the values of many of the wage-indexed program parameters. Each table shows projections under the three alternative sets of assumptions. Table
V.C1 includes:
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The annual cost-of-living benefit increase percentages. The automatic cost-of-living adjustment provisions in the Social Security Act specify increases in OASDI benefits based on increases in the CPI. Volatility in oil prices has resulted in substantial volatility in recent cost-of-living adjustments. A large cost-of-living adjustment for December 2008 was followed by no cost-of-living adjustments for December 2009 and December 2010. More recent volatility in oil prices again affected the CPI, resulting in no cost-of-living adjustment for December 2015. Co st-of-living adjustments resumed in December 2016. All three sets of assumptions include annual cost-of-living adjustments for all future years.
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The annual levels of and percentage increases in the AWI. Under section 215(b)(3) of the Social Security Act, Social Security benefit computations index taxable earnings (for most workers first becoming eligible for benefits in 1979 or later) using the AWI for each year after 1950. This procedure converts a worker’s past earnings to approximately average-wage-indexed equivalent values near the time of his or her benefit eligibility. Other program parameters presented in this section that are subject to the automatic-adjustment provisions also rely on the AWI.
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The wage-indexed contribution and benefit base. For any year, the contribution and benefit base is the maximum amount of earnings subject to the OASDI payroll tax and creditable toward benefit computation. The Social Security Act defers any increase in the contribution and benefit base if there is no cost-of-living adjustment effective for December of the preceding year. There was no increase in the contribution and benefit base for 2010, 2011, or 2016 because there was no cost-of-living adjustment for the immediate prior December in each case. Under all three sets of assumptions, the contribution and benefit base is projected to increase for all future years.
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The wage-indexed retirement earnings test exempt amounts. The exempt amounts are the annual amount of earnings below which beneficiaries do not have benefits withheld. A lower exempt amount applies for years prior to the year of attaining normal retirement age. A higher exempt amount applies beginning with the year in which a beneficiary attains normal retirement age. Starting in 2000, the retirement earnings test no longer applies beginning with the month of attaining normal retirement age. The Social Security Act defers any increase in these exempt amounts if there is no cost-of-living adjustment effective for December of the preceding year. There was no increase in these exempt amounts for 2010, 2011, or 2016 because there was no cost-of-living adjustment for the immediate prior December. Under all three sets of assumptions, the exempt amounts increase for all future years.
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Cost-of-living benefit increase a (percent)
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Average wage index (AWI) b
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Contribution and benefit base c
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Table V.C2 shows values for other wage-indexed parameters. The table provides historical values from 1978, when indexing of the amount of earnings required for a quarter of coverage first began, through 2020, and also shows projected values through 2029. These other wage-indexed program parameters are:
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The bend points in the formula for computing the primary insurance amount (PIA) for workers who reach age 62, become disabled, or die in a given year. As figure V.C1 illustrates, these two bend points define three ranges in a worker’s average indexed monthly earnings (AIME). The formula for the worker’s PIA multiplies a 90, 32, or 15 percent factor by the portion of the worker’s AIME that falls within the three respective ranges, and then adds the resulting products together.
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AIME bend points in PIA formula a
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PIA bend points in OASI maximum- family-benefit formula b
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Old-law contribution and benefit base c
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Projections of the total U.S. civilian labor force and unemployment rate (see table V.B2) are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions from the Current Population Survey (CPS). These projections represent the average weekly number of employed and unemployed persons, age 16 and over, in the U.S. in a calendar year.
Covered employment for a calendar year is defined as the total number of persons who have any OASDI covered earnings (that is, earnings subject to the OASDI payroll tax) at any time during that year. For those age 16 and over, projected covered employment is the sum of age-sex groups, each reflecting the growth projected for the group’s total U.S employment and average weeks worked per year.
2 For the short-range period, the age-sex-adjusted average weeks worked declines slightly as the age-sex-adjusted unemployment rate rises to its ultimate assumed value of 5.0 percent. After 2029, the average weeks worked for each age-sex group is assumed to remain constant. The projection method also accounts for changes in non-OASDI-covered employment and the increase in coverage of Federal civilian employment as a result of the 1983 Social Security Amendments. It also reflects changes in the number and employment status of other-than-LPR immigrants residing within the Social Security coverage area, such as undocumented immigrants and foreign workers and students with temporary visas.
The covered-worker rate is the ratio of OASDI covered workers to the Social Security area population. For men age 16 and over, the projected age-adjusted covered-worker rates
3 for 2094 are 69.5, 69.1, and 68.9 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. For women age 16 and over, the projected age-adjusted covered-worker rates for 2094 are 66.5, 65.2, and 63.9 percent for the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. For men, the intermediate projected rate for 2094 is lower than the 2018 age-adjusted rate of 70.5 percent primarily due to the projected increase in the portion of the Social Security area population that consists of other-than-LPR immigrants. For women, the intermediate projected rate for 2094 is higher than the 2018 age-adjusted rate of 64.9 percent because the projected increase in the age-adjusted labor force participation rate more than offsets the projected increase in the portion of the population that will be other-than-LPR immigrants.
Eligibility for worker benefits under the OASDI program requires some threshold level of work in covered employment. A worker satisfies this requirement by his or her accumulation of quarters of coverage (QCs). Prior to 1978, a worker earned one QC for each calendar quarter in which he or she earned at least $50. In 1978, when annual earnings reporting replaced quarterly reporting, the amount required to earn a QC (up to a maximum of four per year) was set at $250. As specified in the law, the Social Security Administration has adjusted this amount each year since then according to changes in the
AWI. Its value in 2020 is $1,410.
Using these insured models, the percentage of the Social Security area population aged 62 and over that is fully insured is projected to change from its estimated level of 87.7 for December 31, 2017, to 87.1, 88.1, and 89.3 for December 31, 2095, under the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost alternatives, respectively. Over the projection period, the percentages for both males and females change significantly. The percentage for males declines, reflecting, in part, increases in the percent of the population that is classified as other-than-LPR immigrants and is thus less likely to have earnings reported and credited to them. The percentage for females increases, reflecting the past substantial growth in the employment of younger cohorts of women. Under the intermediate assumptions, for example, the percentage for males decreases from 94.0 to 87.4, and the percentage for females increases from 82.4 to 88.8.
The short-range model develops the number of retired-worker beneficiaries by applying
award rates to the aged fully insured population, excluding those already receiving retired-worker, disabled-worker, aged-widow(er), or aged-spouse benefits, and by applying termination rates to the number of
retired-worker beneficiaries.
The long-range model projects the number of retired-worker beneficiaries who were not previously converted from disabled-worker beneficiary status as a percentage of the exposed population.
4 For age 62, the model projects this percentage by using a linear regression based on the historical relationship between this percentage, the labor force participation rate at age 62, and the number of months from age 62 to normal retirement age. The percentage for ages 70 and over is nearly 100 because delayed retirement credits cannot be earned after age 70. The long-range model projects the percentage for each age 63 through 69 based on historical experience with an adjustment for changes in the portion of the primary insurance amount that is payable at each age of entitlement. The model adjusts these percentages for ages 62 through 69 to reflect changes in the normal retirement age.
The long-range model estimates aged-spouse beneficiaries separately for those married and divorced. The model projects the number of married aged-spouse beneficiaries, by age and sex, by applying a series of factors to the number of spouses, aged 62 and over, in the population. These factors are the probabilities that the spouse and the earner meet all of the conditions of eligibility — that is, the probabilities that: (1) the earner is 62 or over, (2) the earner is insured, (3) the earner is either receiving benefits or has suspended benefits, (4) the spouse is not receiving a benefit for the care of an entitled child, (5) the spouse is either not insured or is insured but not receiving benefits, and (6) the spouse is not eligible to receive a significant government pension based on earnings from noncovered employment. To calculate the estimated number of aged-spouse beneficiaries, the model applies a projected prevalence rate to the resulting number of spouses. Due to the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015, aged spouses are no longer eligible to receive an aged-spouse benefit if the earner suspends their benefit after April 29, 2016. Additionally, for those turning age 62 in 2016 and later, deemed filing now applies to all retired workers and spouses even after initial entitlement, regardless of age. Thus, spouses who are insured are no longer eligible to delay their retired-worker benefit while receiving an aged-spouse benefit.
Table V.C4 shows the projected number of beneficiaries under the OASI program by type of benefit. The retired-worker beneficiary counts include those persons who receive a residual auxiliary benefit in addition to their retired-worker benefit. The office makes estimates of the number and amount of residual payments separately for spouses and widow(er)s.
The DI Trust Fund pays for benefits to disabled workers who: (1) satisfy the disability insured requirements, (2) are unable to engage in any substantial gainful activity due to a medically determinable physical or mental impairment severe enough to satisfy the requirements of the program, and (3) have not yet attained
normal retirement age. Spouses and children of such disabled workers may also receive DI benefits provided they satisfy certain criteria, primarily age and earnings requirements.
The disability incidence rate is the ratio of the number of new beneficiaries awarded benefits each year to the number of individuals who meet insured requirements but are not yet receiving benefits (the disability-exposed population
5)
. The Office of the Chief Actuary projects the number of newly awarded beneficiaries for each future year by multiplying assumed age-sex-specific
disability incidence rates and the projected disability-exposed population by age and sex.
Figure V.C3 illustrates the historical and estimated incidence rates under the three alternatives. Incidence rates have varied substantially during the historical period since 1970 due to a variety of demographic and economic factors, along with changes in legislation and program administration. The solid lines in figure
V.C3 show the incidence rate adjusted to the age-sex distribution of the disability-exposed population for 2000. This adjustment allows a comparison of incidence rates over time by focusing on the likelihood of becoming disabled, and by excluding the effects of a changing distribution of the population toward ages where disability is more or less likely.
The dashed lines in figure V.C3 represent the gross (unadjusted) incidence rates. The changing age‑sex distribution of the exposed population over time influences these unadjusted rates. The gross incidence rate fell below the age‑sex-adjusted rate between 1975 and 2000 as the baby-boom generation increased the size of the younger working-age population, where disability incidence is lower than in older populations. After 1990, the gross rate generally increased relative to the age‑sex-adjusted rate as the baby-boom generation moved into an age range where disability incidence peaks. The projected gross incidence rate generally declines relative to the age-sex-adjusted rate as the baby-boom generation moves above the normal retirement age and the lower-birth-rate cohorts of the 1970s enter prime disability ages (50 to normal retirement age). As these smaller cohorts age beyond normal retirement age, by about 2050, the gross incidence rate returns to a higher relative level under the intermediate assumptions. Thereafter, the gross rate remains higher than the age-sex-adjusted rate, and reflects the persistently higher average age of the working-age population, which is largely due to lower birth rates since 1965, and to the increase in the normal retirement age.
For the first 10 years of the projection period (through 2029), incidence rates reflect several factors including: (1) aspects of program administration, such as efforts to reduce the disability determination backlogs and recent changes in procedures for adjudicating claims; (2) assumed future unemployment rates; and (3) recent trends in incidence. At the beginning of the recent period of high unemployment, disability incidence rates were well above the general trend level, with rates reaching a peak in 2010. Over the last few years, incidence rates have subsided as the economy has recovered, and have persisted at levels well below those expected over the long-term. Some of the elevation of disability incidence rates experienced during the recession and the lowering of incidence rates experienced during the recovery are likely due to many individuals applying for disability benefits earlier than they would have otherwise. For 2019, the actual incidence rate (4.0 per thousand) was below the level projected in last year’s report (4.4 per thousand). In this year’s report, incidence rates are assumed to rise more gradually early in the short-range period than in last year’s report, and are lower later in the period. Incidence rates are assumed to be somewhat elevated during the period 2020 through 2021, when the Social Security Administration is expected to eliminate a backlog of individuals who have appealed for a hearing on a prior disability claim denial. In 2029, at the end of the short-range period, age-sex-specific incidence rates reach the ultimate rates assumed for the long-range projections. These ultimate age-sex-specific disability incidence rates were selected based on careful analysis of historical levels and patterns and expected future conditions, including the impact of scheduled increases in the normal retirement age.
6 The ultimate incidence rates represent the expected average rates of incidence for the future.
For the intermediate alternative, the Trustees assume that the ultimate age-sex-adjusted incidence rate (adjusted to the disability-exposed population for the year 2000) will be 5.0 awards per thousand exposed, which is lower than in last year’s report by 0.2 awards per thousand exposed. Figure V.C3 illustrates that the assumed ultimate age-sex-adjusted incidence rate of 5.0 is slightly lower than the average rate for the historical period 1970 through 2019 (5.1 per thousand). However, a similar comparison using gross incidence rates gives a very different result. The estimated ultimate gross incidence rate is substantially greater than the average gross rate over the historical period due to the large changes in the age-sex distribution of the disability-exposed population between 1970 and 2010.
Beneficiaries stop receiving disability benefits when they die, recover from their medically-determinable disabling condition, or return to substantial work. Disabled-worker beneficiaries who return to substantial work for an extended period are deemed to have recovered, and their benefits are then terminated. The termination rate is the ratio of the number of terminations for these reasons to the average number of disabled-worker beneficiaries during the year.
In the short-range period (through 2029), the projected age-sex-adjusted death rate (adjusted to the 2000 disabled-worker population) under the intermediate assumptions gradually declines from 24.8 deaths per thousand beneficiaries for 2019 to about 23.7 per thousand for 2029.The projected age-sex-adjusted recovery rate (medical improvement and return to work) under the intermediate assumptions decreases from the relatively high level of 18.9 per thousand beneficiaries for 2019 to 10.3 per thousand beneficiaries for 2029. The recovery rate has been high in recent years due to an ongoing administrative effort to eliminate a backlog of continuing disability reviews. The rate is expected to decrease as the backlog is reduced. Under the low-cost and high-cost assumptions, total age-sex-adjusted termination rates due to death and recovery are roughly 10-15 percent higher or lower, respectively, than under the intermediate assumptions.
For the long-range period (post-2029), the Office of the Chief Actuary projects death and recovery rates by age, sex, and duration of entitlement relative to the average level of rates experienced over the base period 2011 through 2015. The assumed ultimate age-sex-adjusted recovery rate for disabled workers is about 10.3 per thousand beneficiaries. The assumed ultimate age-sex-adjusted recovery rates for the low-cost and high-cost alternatives are about 12.5 and 8.2 recoveries per thousand beneficiaries, respectively. Death rates by age and sex change throughout the long-range period at the same rate as death rates in the general population. From the age-sex-adjusted death rate of 24.8 per thousand beneficiaries in 2019, this rate decreases to 18.9, 12.0, and 7.1 per thousand disabled-worker beneficiaries for 2095 under the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively.
Figure V.C4 illustrates gross and age-sex-adjusted total termination rates (including both recoveries and deaths) for disabled-worker beneficiaries for the historical period since 1970, and for the projection period through 2095. As with incidence rates, the age-sex-adjusted termination rate illustrates the real change in the tendency to terminate benefits. Changes in the age-sex distribution of the beneficiary population influence the gross termination rate. A shift in the disabled-worker beneficiary population to older ages, as occurred over the past 20 years when the baby-boom generation moved into pre-retirement ages, increases gross death termination rates relative to the age-sex-adjusted rates.
Figure V.C5 compares the historical and projected (intermediate) levels of incidence, termination, and conversion on both a gross basis and an age-sex-adjusted basis. Incidence rates have varied widely, and the Trustees expect the age-sex adjusted rates under the intermediate assumptions to remain near the middle of the high and low extremes experienced since 1970. Termination rates have declined and the Trustees expect them to continue to decline, largely because of declining death rates.
Conversions are a transfer of beneficiaries at normal retirement age from the DI program to the OASI program. Therefore, the disability “conversion” rate is 100 percent for disabled-worker beneficiaries reaching normal retirement age in a given year and zero at all other ages. After conversion, recovery from the disabling condition is no longer relevant for benefit eligibility. The conversion ratio is the number of conversions in a given year (that is, beneficiaries who reach normal retirement age) divided by the average number of disabled-worker beneficiaries at all ages in that year. The ratio is constant on an age-sex-adjusted basis, except for the two periods during which normal retirement age increases under current law. On a gross basis, however, the conversion ratio rises and falls with the changing proportion of all disabled-worker beneficiaries who attain normal retirement age in a given year. The gross conversion ratio generally increases from 2005 to 2030 due to aging of the beneficiary population.
The Office of the Chief Actuary makes detailed projections of disabled-worker awards, terminations, and conversions and combines these to project the number of disabled workers receiving benefits over the next 75 years. Table V.C5 presents the projected numbers of disabled workers in current-payment status. The number of disabled workers in current-payment status grows from 8.4 million at the end of 2019, to 11.2 million, 12.9 million, and 13.9 million at the end of 2095, under the low-cost, intermediate, and high-cost assumptions, respectively. Of course, much of this growth results from the growth and aging of the population described earlier in this chapter. Table
V.C5 also presents projected numbers of auxiliary beneficiaries and disability prevalence rates on both a gross basis and an age-sex-adjusted basis.
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Disability prevalence rates
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The disability prevalence rate is the ratio of the number of disabled-worker beneficiaries in current-payment status to the number of persons insured for disability benefits. Figure V.C6 illustrates the historical and projected disability prevalence rates on both a gross basis and on an age-sex-adjusted basis (adjusted to the age-sex distribution of the disability insured population for the year 2000).
Changes in prevalence rates are a direct result of changes in incidence rates and termination rates. Figure V.C5 depicts patterns for incidence and termination rates, which are helpful for understanding the trend in prevalence rates. Annual incidence and termination rates are not directly comparable or combinable because their denominators differ.
As mentioned above in the discussion of incidence and termination rates, the age-sex-adjusted prevalence rate isolates the changing trend in the underlying likelihood of receiving benefits for the insured population, without reflecting changes in the age distribution of the population. As with incidence rates, gross disability prevalence rates declined relative to the age-sex-adjusted rate when the baby-boom generation reached working age between 1970 and 1990; this trend reflects the lower
disability prevalence rates associated with younger ages. Conversely, the gross rate of disability prevalence has increased relative to the age-sex-adjusted rate after 1990 due to the aging of the baby-boom generation into ages with higher disability prevalence rates.
Table V.C5 presents projections of the numbers of auxiliary beneficiaries paid from the DI Trust Fund. As indicated at the beginning of this subsection, auxiliary beneficiaries are qualifying spouses and children of disabled workers. A spouse must either be at least age 62 or have an eligible child beneficiary in his or her care who is either under age 16 or disabled prior to age 22. A child must be: (1) under age 18, (2) age 18 or 19 and still a student in high school, or (3) age 18 or older and disabled prior to age 22.
The OASDI taxable payroll (see table VI.G6) for a year is computed as the amount of earnings which, when multiplied by the combined OASDI employee-employer payroll tax rate for that year, yields the total amount of payroll taxes due from wages paid and self-employment net earnings for the year. The Trustees use taxable payroll to determine income rates, cost rates, and actuarial balances. Taxable payroll is derived by adjusting total taxable earnings to account for categories of earnings that are taxed at rates other than the combined employee-employer rate and to take into account amounts credited as wages that were not included in normally reported wages. For 1951 and later, taxable earnings are reduced by one-half of the amount of wages paid to employees with multiple jobs that exceed the contribution and benefit base. For 1983 through 2001, deemed wage credits for military service after 1956 are added to taxable earnings. The self-employment tax rates for 1951 through 1983 were less than the combined employee-employer rates; therefore, the self-employment component of taxable payroll for those years is reduced by multiplying the ratio of the self-employment rate to the combined employee-employer rate times the taxable self-employment net earnings. Finally, for 1966 through 1979, employers were exempt from paying their share of payroll tax on their employees’ tips and, for 1980 through 1987, employers paid tax on only part of their employees’ tips. For those years, the taxable payroll is reduced by half of the amount of tips for which the employer owed no payroll tax.
For this report, the Trustees assume a level for the taxable ratio at the end of the short-range period (2029) of 82.5 percent for the intermediate assumptions, 84.0 percent for the low-cost assumptions, and 81.0 percent for the high-cost assumptions.
7 These are the same assumptions that the Trustees made for the end of the short-range period (2028) for the 2019 report.
The Office of the Chief Actuary projects payroll tax contributions using the patterns of tax collection required by Federal laws and regulations. The office determines payroll tax liabilities by multiplying the scheduled tax rates for each year by the amount of taxable wages and self-employment net earnings for that year. The office then splits these liabilities into amounts by collection period. For wages, Federal law requires that employers withhold OASDI and HI payroll taxes and Federal individual income taxes from employees’ pay. As an employer’s accumulation of such taxes (including the employer share of payroll taxes) meets certain thresholds, which the Department of the Treasury determines, the employer must deposit these taxes with the U.S. Treasury by a specific day, depending on the amount of money involved.
8 For projection purposes, the office splits the payroll tax contributions related to wages into amounts paid in the same quarter as incurred and in the following quarter. Self-employed workers must make estimated tax payments on their earnings four times during the year and make up any underestimate on their individual income tax returns. The projection splits the self-employed tax liabilities by collection quarter to reflect this pattern.
Table V.C6 shows the payroll tax contribution rates applicable under current law in each calendar year and the allocation of these rates between the OASI and DI Trust Funds.
9 It also shows the contribution and benefit base for each year through 2020.
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Employees and employers, combined a
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For the long-range period, the office estimates the income to the trust funds from taxation of benefits by applying projected ratios of taxation of OASI and DI benefits to total OASI and DI scheduled benefits. These tax ratios rely on estimates from the Office of Tax Analysis in the Department of the Treasury. The Office of the Chief Actuary’s estimates reflect the following assumptions: (1) The income thresholds used for benefit taxation are specified in the Internal Revenue Code to be constant in the future, and have never been changed, while income and benefit levels continue to rise. Accordingly, projected ratios of income from taxation of benefits to the amount of benefits increase gradually. (2) A permanent level shift upward in the ratios is projected for 2026 and beyond due to the expiration of the personal income tax provisions in Public Law 115-97, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. (3) Because indexation of income tax brackets is not specified in the Social Security Act, and because periodic changes have been made in the past to avoid indefinite compression of the income tax brackets relative to income levels (bracket creep), the Trustees assume that such periodic changes will occur in the future. As a result, after the tenth year of the projection period, income tax brackets are assumed to rise with average wages, rather than with the C-CPI-U as specified under current law. Thus, the income tax brackets are projected to roughly maintain their levels relative to the income distribution.
Scheduled lump-sum death benefits are estimated as the product of: (1) the number of lump-sum death payments projected on the basis of the assumed death rates, the projected fully insured population, and the estimated percentage of the fully insured population that will qualify for lump-sum death payments; and (2) the amount of the lump-sum death payment, which is $255 (unindexed since 1973).
Table V.C7 shows, under the intermediate assumptions, future benefit amounts payable upon retirement at the normal retirement age and at age 65, for various hypothetical workers attaining age 65 in 2020 and subsequent years. The illustrative benefit amounts in table
V.C7 are presented in CPI-indexed 2020 dollars—that is, adjusted to 2020 levels by the CPI indexing series shown in table
VI.G6. As a point of comparison, table
V.C7 also shows the national average wage index (AWI) for 2020 and subsequent years in CPI-indexed 2020 dollars.
The normal retirement age was 65 for individuals who reached age 62 before 2000. It increased to age 66 during the period 2000 through 2005, at a rate of 2 months per year as workers attained age 62. Under current law, the normal retirement age increases to age 67 during the period 2017 through 2022, also by 2 months per year as workers attain age 62. The illustrative benefit amounts shown in table V.C7 for retirees at age 65 are lower than the amounts shown for retirees at normal retirement age because the statute requires an actuarial reduction for monthly benefits taken before normal retirement age to reflect the expected additional years benefits will be collected. For example, those who collect benefits starting in 2027 at age 65 will receive benefits for two more years than if they instead claim benefits at the normal retirement age (age 67) unless they die between the ages of 65 and 67.
Table V.C7 shows five different pre-retirement earnings patterns. Four of these patterns assume the earnings history of workers with scaled-earnings patterns
10 and reflect very low, low, medium, and high career-average levels of pre-retirement earnings starting at age 21. The fifth pattern assumes the earnings history of a steady maximum earner starting at age 22. The four scaled-earnings patterns derive from earnings experienced by insured workers during 1997‑2016. These earnings levels differ by age. The career-average level of earnings for each scaled case targets a percent of the AWI.
For the scaled medium earner, the career-average earnings level is about equal to the AWI (or $55,642 for 2020). For the scaled very low, low, and high earners, the career-average earnings level is about 25 percent, 45 percent, and 160 percent of the AWI, respectively (or $13,910, $25,039, and $89,027, respectively, for 2020). The steady maximum earner has earnings at or above the contribution and benefit base for each year starting at age 22 through the year prior to retirement (or $137,700 for 2020).
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Scaled very low earnings b
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National Average Wage Index in 2020 dollars g
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Benefits in 2020 dollars h with retirement at normal retirement age
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Benefits in 2020 dollarsh with retirement at age 65
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