At the end of 2023, the OASDI program was providing benefit payments
1 to about 67 million people: 53 million retired workers and dependents of retired workers, 6 million survivors of deceased workers, and 9 million disabled workers and dependents of disabled workers. During the year, an estimated 183 million people had earnings covered by Social Security and paid payroll taxes on those earnings. The total cost of the program in 2023 was $1,392 billion. Total income was $1,351 billion, which consisted of $1,284 billion in non-interest income and $67 billion in interest earnings. Asset reserves held in special issue U.S. Treasury securities declined from $2,830 billion at the beginning of the year to $2,788 billion at the end of the year.
The reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds along with projected program income are sufficient to cover projected program cost over the next 10 years under the intermediate assumptions. However, the ratio of reserves to annual cost is projected to decline from 188 percent at the beginning of 2024 to 84 percent at the beginning of 2030 and remain below 100 percent for the remainder of the 10-year short-range period. Because this ratio falls below 100 percent by the end of the 10th projection year, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds fail the Trustees’ test of short-range financial adequacy. For last year’s report, the combined reserves were projected to be 187 percent of annual cost at the beginning of 2024 and 25 percent at the beginning of 2033.
Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, OASDI cost exceeds total income in 2024 and in every year thereafter through 2098, and the level of the hypothetical combined trust fund reserves declines until reserves become depleted in 2035, one year later than projected in last year’s report. Figure II.D2 shows the implications of reserve depletion for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. Considered separately, the OASI Trust Fund reserves become depleted in 2033, which is the same year projected in last year’s report. As in last year’s report, the DI Trust Fund reserves do not become depleted within the 75-year long-range projection period.
2
To illustrate the magnitude of the 75-year actuarial deficit, consider that for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds to remain fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period ending in 2098: (1) revenue would have to increase by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent payroll tax rate increase of 3.33 percentage points
3 to 15.73 percent beginning in January 2024; (2) scheduled benefits would have to be reduced by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction of 20.8 percent applied to all current and future beneficiaries effective in January 2024, or 24.8 percent if the reductions were applied only to those who become initially eligible for benefits in 2024 or later; or (3) some combination of these approaches would have to be adopted.