| |
Table II.D2. - Selected Demographic Assumptions by Alternative, Calendar Years 1940-2070
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Life expectancy 3/
----------------------------------
Total Age-sex-adjusted At birth At age 65
fertility death rate 2/ ---------------- ---------------
Calendar year rate 1/ (per 100,000) Male Female Male Female
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Historical data:
1940........... 2.23 1,532.8 61.4 65.7 11.9 13.4
1945........... 2.42 1,366.4 62.9 68.4 12.6 14.4
1950........... 3.03 1,225.3 65.6 71.1 12.8 15.1
1955........... 3.50 1,134.2 66.7 72.8 13.1 15.6
1960........... 3.61 1,128.6 66.7 73.2 12.9 15.9
1965........... 2.88 1,103.6 66.8 73.8 12.9 16.3
1970........... 2.43 1,041.8 67.1 74.9 13.1 17.1
1975........... 1.77 934.0 68.7 76.6 13.7 18.0
1976........... 1.74 923.2 69.1 76.8 13.7 18.1
1977........... 1.79 898.0 69.4 77.2 13.9 18.3
1978........... 1.76 892.4 69.6 77.2 13.9 18.3
1979........... 1.82 864.2 70.0 77.7 14.2 18.6
1980........... 1.85 878.1 69.9 77.5 14.0 18.4
1981........... 1.83 853.8 70.4 77.8 14.2 18.6
1982........... 1.83 828.5 70.8 78.2 14.5 18.8
1983........... 1.81 836.1 70.9 78.1 14.3 18.6
1984........... 1.80 829.6 71.1 78.2 14.4 18.7
1985........... 1.84 831.8 71.1 78.2 14.4 18.6
1986........... 1.84 824.8 71.1 78.3 14.5 18.7
1987........... 1.87 816.1 71.3 78.4 14.6 18.7
1988........... 1.93 824.5 71.2 78.3 14.6 18.7
1989........... 2.01 804.1 71.5 78.6 14.8 18.9
1990........... 2.07 789.0 71.8 78.8 15.0 19.0
1991........... 2.07 778.8 71.9 78.9 15.1 19.1
1992 4/........ 2.06 764.3 72.2 79.2 15.2 19.3
1993 4/........ 2.04 784.2 71.9 78.9 15.1 19.0
1994 4/........ 2.04 775.9 72.2 79.0 15.3 19.0
1995 4/........ 2.04 763.8 72.3 79.2 15.4 19.2
Intermediate:
1996........... 2.02 731.3 73.0 79.7 15.6 19.4
2000........... 1.99 700.5 73.9 80.2 15.9 19.5
2005........... 1.96 677.3 74.5 80.5 16.1 19.7
2010........... 1.93 657.4 74.9 80.9 16.3 19.9
2015........... 1.90 638.4 75.3 81.2 16.5 20.1
2020........... 1.90 620.4 75.6 81.5 16.7 20.3
2025........... 1.90 603.2 76.0 81.8 16.9 20.5
2030........... 1.90 587.0 76.3 82.1 17.1 20.7
2035........... 1.90 571.5 76.6 82.4 17.3 21.0
2040........... 1.90 556.7 76.9 82.7 17.5 21.2
2045........... 1.90 542.7 77.2 83.0 17.7 21.4
2050........... 1.90 529.3 77.5 83.3 17.9 21.6
2055........... 1.90 516.5 77.8 83.6 18.0 21.8
2060........... 1.90 504.3 78.1 83.8 18.2 22.0
2065........... 1.90 492.6 78.4 84.1 18.4 22.2
2070........... 1.90 481.4 78.7 84.3 18.6 22.4
Low Cost:
1996........... 2.08 750.1 73.0 79.3 15.3 19.0
2000........... 2.11 745.1 73.3 79.3 15.3 18.8
2005........... 2.14 739.0 73.5 79.4 15.4 18.8
2010........... 2.17 729.7 73.8 79.6 15.4 18.8
2015........... 2.20 720.0 74.0 79.7 15.5 18.9
2020........... 2.20 710.6 74.2 79.9 15.6 19.0
2025........... 2.20 701.5 74.3 80.0 15.6 19.1
2030........... 2.20 692.8 74.5 80.2 15.7 19.2
2035........... 2.20 684.4 74.7 80.3 15.8 19.2
2040........... 2.20 676.2 74.8 80.5 15.9 19.3
2045........... 2.20 668.4 75.0 80.6 15.9 19.4
2050........... 2.20 660.7 75.2 80.7 16.0 19.5
2055........... 2.20 653.4 75.3 80.9 16.1 19.6
2060........... 2.20 646.2 75.5 81.0 16.1 19.6
2065........... 2.20 639.3 75.6 81.1 16.2 19.7
2070........... 2.20 632.6 75.7 81.2 16.3 19.8
High Cost:
1996........... 1.94 720.2 72.7 80.0 15.9 19.8
2000........... 1.86 668.2 73.9 80.9 16.3 20.2
2005........... 1.77 619.3 75.3 81.6 16.7 20.5
2010........... 1.68 583.3 76.2 82.3 17.1 20.9
2015........... 1.60 553.0 76.8 82.8 17.5 21.3
2020........... 1.60 525.6 77.4 83.4 17.9 21.7
2025........... 1.60 500.1 78.0 84.0 18.3 22.2
2030........... 1.60 476.0 78.5 84.5 18.7 22.6
2035........... 1.60 453.3 79.1 85.0 19.1 23.0
2040........... 1.60 431.9 79.6 85.6 19.5 23.4
2045........... 1.60 411.7 80.2 86.1 19.9 23.8
2050........... 1.60 392.6 80.7 86.6 20.3 24.2
2055........... 1.60 374.6 81.2 87.1 20.7 24.6
2060........... 1.60 357.7 81.8 87.6 21.1 25.0
2065........... 1.60 341.8 82.3 88.0 21.4 25.4
2070........... 1.60 326.7 82.8 88.5 21.8 25.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who
would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth
rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to
survive the entire child-bearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is
assumed to be reached in 2020.
2/ The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude death rate that would occur in
the enumerated total population as of April 1, 1980, if that population were to
experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed to for, the
selected year.
3/ The life expectancy for any year is the average number of years of life
remaining for a person if that person were to experience the death rates by age
observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
4/ Preliminary or estimated.
|
www.socialsecurity.gov
