A Stochastic Model
of the Long-Range Financial Status
of the OASDI Program—September 2004

List of Figures

II. Equation Selection and Parameter Estimation

Figure II.1— U.S. Total Fertility Rate, Calendar Years 1917-2002

Figure II.2— U.S. Legal Immigration, Calendar Years 1901-2002

Figure II.3— Unemployment Rate, Calendar Years 1960-2002

Figure II.4— Inflation Rate (CPI), Calendar Years 1960-2002

Figure II.5— Real Interest Rate, Calendar Years 1960-2002

Figure II.6— Real Average Wage (Percent Change), Calendar Years 1968-2002

Figure II.7— Male Disability Incidence Rate, Calendar Years 1970-2003

Figure II.8— Female Disability Incidence Rate, Calendar Years 1970-2003

IV. Results

Figure IV.1— Total Fertility Rate, Calendar Years 1917-2078

Figure IV.2— Male Period Life Expectancy at Birth, Calendar Years 1900-2078

Figure IV.3— Female Period Life Expectancy at Birth, Calendar Years 1900-2078

Figure IV.4— Male Period Life Expectancy at Age 65, Calendar Years 1900-2078

Figure IV.5— Female Period Life Expectancy at Age 65, Calendar Years 1900-2078

Figure IV.6— Legal Immigration, Calendar Years 1901-2078

Figure IV.7— Legal Emigration, Calendar Years 1980-2078

Figure IV.8— Net Other Immigration, Calendar Years 1960-2078

Figure IV.9— Unemployment Rate, Calendar Years 1960-2078

Figure IV.10— Inflation Rate, Calendar Years 1960-2078

Figure IV.11— Real Interest Rate, Calendar Years 1960-2078

Figure IV.12— Real Average Covered Wage, Calendar Years 1968-2078

Figure IV.13— Male Disability Incidence Rate, Calendar Years 1970-2078

Figure IV.14— Female Disability Incidence Rate, Calendar Years 1970-2078

Figure IV.15— Male Disability Recovery Rate, Calendar Years 1986-2078

Figure IV.16— Female Disability Recovery Rate, Calendar Years 1986-2078

Figure IV.17— Annual Trust Fund Ratio, Calendar Years 2004-78

Figure IV.18— Annual Cost and Income Rates, Calendar Years 2004-78

Figure IV.19— Frequency Distribution of the Long-Range Actuarial Balance, Calendar Years 2004-78

Figure IV.20— Cumulative Distribution of the Long-Range Actuarial Balance, Calendar Years 2004-78

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