Actuarial Notes

Actuarial publications
Notes and Studies

Many of the Actuarial Notes listed below have been converted to PDF by scanning printed documents. Such PDF documents are not accessible by visually impaired people. All documents listed are historical documents.

Note #157 A Brief Comparison of Basic Financial Projections Since 2000 by Stephen Goss, Alice Wade, Karen Glenn, Robert Weathers, and J. Patrick Skirvin (May 2015)
Note #156 Accuracy of Mortality Projections in Trustees Reports by Stephen Goss, Alice Wade, Karen Glenn, Michael Morris, Mark Bye (May 2015)
Note #155 Replacement Rates For Retirees: What Makes Sense For Planning And Evaluation? by Stephen Goss, Michael Clingman, Alice Wade, and Karen Glenn (July 2014)
Note #154 Diminishing Effect of the Special Minimum PIA by Craig A. Feinstein (November 2013)
Note #153 Disabled Worker Allowance Rates: Variation under Changing Economic Conditions by Stephen Goss, Alice Wade, Michael Morris, and Karen Glenn (August 2013)
Note #152 Totalization Agreements and Totalized Benefits by Nettie Barrick and Bertram Kestenbaum (May 2013)
Note #151 Effects of Unauthorized Immigration on the Actuarial Status of the Social Security Trust Funds by Stephen Goss, Alice Wade, J. Patrick Skirvin, Michael Morris, K. Mark Bye, and Danielle Huston (April 2013)
Note #150 The Nature and Evolution of Methodologies for Social Security Projections by Stephen Goss, Alice Wade, Michael Morris, and Karen Glenn (January 2013)
Note #149 Death Termination Experience for DI Disabled Workers and SSI Disabled Adults with HIV-related Impairments, 2002-06 by Nettie Barrick and Tim Zayatz (August 2012)
Note #148 Projections of Immigration for the 2008 Social Security Trustees Report by Alice H. Wade, J. Patrick Skirvin, Alvin K. Winters, and Stephen C. Goss (March 2009)
Note #147 Variable Supplementary Medical Insurance Premiums by Jacqueline Walsh & Bert Kestenbaum (March 2006)
Note #146 Death Termination Experience for DI Disabled Workers and SSI Disabled Adults with HIV-related Impairments by Nettie Barrick and Tim Zayatz (June 2005)
Note #145 Average Interest Rates and Average Time to Maturity for Social Security Trust Fund Investments, 1991-2002 by Jeffrey L. Kunkel and Terence W. Mei (June 2003)
Note #144 Internal Real Rates of Return Under the OASDI Program for Hypothetical Workers by Orlo R. Nichols, Michael D. Clingman, and Milton P. Glanz (June 2001)
Note #143 Projected Demise of the Special Minimum PIA by Craig A. Feinstein (October 2000)
Note #142 Social Security Trust Fund Investment Policies and Practices, by Jeffrey L. Kunkel (January 1999)
Note #141 The Widow(er)'s Indexing Computation (WINDEX), by Chris Chaplain (January 1999)
Note #140 A Matched-Records Study of AIDS Deaths in 1993: SSA Administrative Records and Death Certificates, by Bertram M. Kestenbaum and Chris Chaplain (January 1999)
Note #139 Name Distributions in the Social Security Area, August 1997, by Michael W. Shackleford (May 1998)
Note #138 Effective Annual Interest Rates Earned by the OASI and DI Trust Funds, 1940-96, by Jeffrey L. Kunkel (October 1997)
Note #137 OASDI Short-Range Sensitivity Analysis, by Nettie J. Barrick (November 1996)
Note #136 Representative Payees for Adult Beneficiaries, October 1994, by Bertram M. Kestenbaum and Michael W. Shackleford (October 1996)
Note #135 Frequency Distribution of Wage Earners by Wage Level, by Jeffrey L. Kunkel (July 1996)
Note #134 Suitability of Beneficiary Records for Determining the Program Experience of Couples, by Bertram M. Kestenbaum (June 1996)
Note #133 Average Wages for 1985-1990 for Indexing Under the Social Security Act, by Michael D. Clingman and Jeffrey L. Kunkel (September 1992)
Note #132 A Simple Evaluation of Projections in OASDI Trustees Reports, by Francisco R. Bayo (June 1990)
Note #131 Maximum Primary Insurance Amounts in 1988, by Roy A. Ferguson (December 1988)
Note #130 Long-Range Estimates of Social Security Trust Fund Operations in Dollars, by Harry C. Ballantyne (April 1987)
Note #129 A Death and Disability Life Table for the 1966 Birth Cohort, by William B. Kelley (December 1986)
Note #128 Present Value of OASDI and Medicare Benefits for Newly Entitled Disabled Workers, by John C. Wilkin (September 1986)
Note #127 Long-Range Estimates of Social Security Trust Fund Operations in Dollars, by Harry C. Ballantyne (April 1986)
Note #126 Average Wages for 1984 for Indexing Under the Social Security Act and the Automatic Determinations for 1986, by Clare Albrecht (December 1985)
Note #125 Long-Range Estimates of Social Security Trust Fund Operations in Dollars, by Harry C. Ballantyne (April 1985)
Note #124 Average Wages for 1983 for Indexing Under the Social Security Act and the Automatic Determinations for 1985, by Clare Albrecht (May 1985)
Note #123 Effective Annual Interest Rates Earned by the OASI and DI Trust Funds, by Bruce Sobus and Clare Albrecht (November 1984)
Note #122 A Program in Basic for Computing Primary Insurance Amounts, by Steven F. McKay and John F. Dickstein (April 1985)
Note #121 Primary Insurance Amount for an Average Male Worker, by Bertram M. Kestenbaum (October 1984)
Note #120 Long-Range Projections of Social Security Trust Fund Operations in Dollars, by Harry C. Ballantyne (May 1984)
Note #119 Average Wages for 1982 for Indexing Under the Social Security Act and the Automatic Determinations for 1984, by Eli N. Donkar and Clare Albrecht (January 1984)
Note #118 Maximum Primary Insurance Amounts in 1983, by Steven F. McKay and Clare M. Albrecht (October 1983)
Note #117 Long-Range Projections of Social Security Trust Fund Operations in Dollars, by Harry C. Ballantyne (October 1983)
Note #116 A FORTRAN Program for Computing Primary Insurance Amounts, by Steven F. McKay (December 1982)
Note #115 Average Wages for 1981 for Indexing Under the Social Security Act and the Automatic Determinations for 1983, by Eli N. Donkar and James P. Buchman (December 1982)
Note #114 Social Security Coverage in 1972 by Marital Status, and Reasons for Non-Coverage, by Wilfredo Cruz (September 1982)
Note #113 Growth in Fringe Benefits, by John C. Wilkin, Ronald V. Gresch, and Milton P. Glanz (June 1982)
Note #112 Average Wages for 1980 for Indexing Under the Social Security Act and the Automatic Determinations for 1982, by Eli N. Donkar (April 1982)
Note #111 Computing a Social Security Benefit After the 1980 and 1981 Amendments, by Steven F. McKay (February 1982)
Note #110 Actual Costs of the Social Security System Over the Years as Compared With Those Estimated in 1935, by Robert J. Myers, Guest Author (November 1981)
Note #109 Economic Forecasting: Effect of Errors on OASDI Fund Ratios, by Dwight K. Bartlett III and Joseph A. Applebaum (September 1981)
Note #108 Long-Range Projection of Average Benefits Under OASDI, by Steven F. McKay (September 1981)
Note #107 Were Benefits Under the Original Social Security Program on an Individual Equity Basis?, by Robert J. Myers, Guest Author (August 1981)
Note #106 Comparison of Actual Economic Experience and Assumptions in Trustees Reports, 1971-1980, by Joseph A. Applebaum (August 1981)
Note #105 Equivalent Retirement Ages: 1940-2050, by Francisco R. Bayo and Joseph F. Faber (June 1981)
Note #104 A Comparison of Retirement Benefits Under the U.S. and Canadian Social Insurance Systems, by Bruce D. Schobel (June 1981)
Note #103 Average Wages for Indexing Under the Social Security Act and the Automatic Determinations for 1979-81, by Eli N. Donkar (May 1981)
Note #102 A Comparison of Social Security Taxes and Federal Income Taxes, by Bruce D. Schobel (April 1981)
Note #101 Administrative Expenses Under OASDI, by Bruce D. Schobel (November 1980)
Note #100 Computing a Social Security Benefit After the 1977 Amendments, by Steven F. McKay (February 1980)
Note #99 Projecting OASDI Long-Range Program Cost as a Percentage of Gross National Product, by Harry J. Kingerski (January 1980)
Note #98 Termination Experience of Disabled-Child Benefits Under the Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Program, by Bruce Schobel and Sam Weissman (November 1979)
Note #97 Some Effects of Fully Funding OASDI, by Joseph A. Applebaum (September 1979)
Note #96 The Concept of Replacement Ratios Under Social Security, by Joseph A. Applebaum and Joseph F. Faber (July 1979)
Note #95 Some Comparisons of the Value of a Worker's Social Security Taxes and Benefits, by Orlo R. Nichols and Richard G. Schreitmueller (April 1978)
Note #94 Actual Replacement Rates for Disabled Worker Beneficiaries, by Francisco R. Bayo and Joseph F. Faber (January 1978)
Note #93 Actuarial Replacement Rates for Retiring Workers, by Orlo R. Nichols (October 1977)
Note #92 Mortality of Charter Beneficiaries, 1970-1977, by Francisco Bayo and Howard Shiman (November 1977)
Note #91 Retirement Experience of Old-Age Insurance Beneficiaries, 1966-1976, by Harry J. Kingerski (August 1977)
Note #90 The Effect of the 1976 Automatic Benefit Increase on Dynamic Projections of Benefits, by Orlo R. Nichols and Steven F. McKay (August 1976)
Note #89 Social Security Benefits After the June 1976 Automatic Benefit Increase, by Orlo R. Nichols and Steven F. McKay (July 1976)
Note #88 A Retrospective Application of the Health Maintenance Organization Risk Sharing Savings Formula for Six Group Practice Prepayment Plans for 1969 and 1970, by Steve Goss (November 1975)
Note #87 Some Aspects of the Dynamic Projection of Benefits Under the 1973 Social Security Amendments (P.L. 93-233), by Albert Rettig and Orlo R. Nichols (April 1974)
Note #86 An Analysis of the Stability of the Geographic Index of Reimbursement, by Richard S. Foster (April 1974)
Note #85 Changes in Social Security Benefits Under Public Law 93-233, by Albert Rettig and Orlo R. Nichols (March 1974)
Note #84 An Analysis of Length of Prior Hospital Stays for Extended Care Facility Cases, by Jeffrey Burkett (November 1973)
Note #83 Some Mathematical Aspects of the Social Security Amendments in Public Law 93-66, by Albert Rettig and Orlo R. Nichols (October 1973)
Note #82 Distribution of Medicare Benefit Disbursements by Type, by Ronald G. Harris and Roland E. King (December 1972)
Note #81 Some Aspects of the Dynamic Projection of Benefits Under the 1972 Social Security Amendments, by Albert Rettig and Orlo R. Nichols (January 1973)
Note #80 Some Mathematical Aspects of the Social Security Amendments in Public Law 92-603, by Albert Rettig and Orlo R. Nichols (January 1973)
Note #79 Quantity-Price Relationships in Health Insurance, by Charles L. Trowbridge (November 1972)
Note #78 Mortality of Charter Beneficiaries, by Francisco Bayo and Margaret A. Lannen (August 1972)
Note #77 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDHI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Margaret A. Lannen (June 1972)
Note #76 Distribution of Medicare Benefit Disbursements by Type , by Russell J. Mueller and David R. McKusick (October 1971)
Note #75 Computer Program for Primary Insurance Amount, by Albert Rettig and Orlo R. Nichols (October 1971)
Note #74 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDHI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Margaret A. Lannen (March 1971)
Note #73 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDHI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Margaret A. Lannen (May 1970)
Note #72 An Analysis of the Duration of Prior Hospital Stays for Extended Care Facility Cases, by Michael Hooker and Milton Glanz (June 1970)
Note #71 Estimated Amount of Life Insurance In Force as Survivor Benefits Under the Social Security Program, by Robert J. Myers (May 1970)
Note #70 Hospital Utilization and Average Daily Hospital Costs for Persons Aged 65 and Over as Indicated by Data Under the Hospital Insurance Program and From the American Hospital Association , by Robert J. Myers (April 1970)
Note #69 Mortality of the Aged Before and After Medicare, by Robert J. Myers and William D. Ritchie (April 1970)
Note #68 Distribution of Medicare Benefit Disbursements by Type, by Robert J. Myers (March 1970)
Note #67 Maximum Benefits Under the Social Security Amendments of 1969, by Jane M. Ceccarelli (February 1970)
Note #66 Illustrative Total Monthly Family Benefits Under the 1969 Amendments, by Jane M. Ceccarelli (January 1970)
Note #65 Automatic Adjustment of the Earnings Base Under OASDHI, by Marice C. Hart (January 1970)
Note #64 The Social Security Benefit Formula, by Marice C. Hart (January 1970)
Note #63 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDHI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Margaret A. Lannen (December 1969)
Note #62 An Analysis of Social Security Numbers in the SMI Actuarial Sample, by Terence Hawkes and Ronald Harris (December 1969)
Note #61 Hospital Utilization and Average Daily Hospital Costs for Persons Aged 65 and Over as Indicated by Data Under the Hospital Insurance Program and From the American Hospital Association, by Robert J. Myers (September 1969)
Note #60 Comparison of Medicare Expenditures With Estimates, First Three Years of Operation, by Robert J. Myers (August 1969)
Note #59 Retirement Experience of Old-Age Beneficiaries, 1958-68, by Francisco Bayo (August 1969)
Note #58 Disability Incidence Rates Under OASDI System for Disability Onsets Occurring in 1956-64, by Robert J. Myers and Francisco Bayo (August 1969)
Note #57 Current Experience of SMI Program on a "Cash" Basis, by Robert J. Myers (August 1969)
Note #56 Accrued Cost of SMI Program for 1966 and 1967, by Robert J. Myers (August 1969)
Note #55 SMI Benefit Experience for 1966-68 as Shown on Payment Records, by Robert J. Myers (August 1969)
Note #54 Distribution of SMI Bills and Reimbursements by Type of Service, by Robert J. Myers (July 1969)
Note #53 The Farmington, West Virginia Mine Disaster: An Actuarial Analysis of Survivor Benefits Payable, by Charles R. Owen (June 1969)
Note #52 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDHI System With Short Range Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Margaret A. Lannen (June 1969)
Note #51 Mortality of the Aged Before and After Medicare, by Robert J. Myers and William D. Ritchie (April 1969)
Note #50 Comparison of Actual Experience Under HI With Estimates of Various Organizations, by Robert J. Myers (April 1969)
Note #49 Additional Interest Earnings of OASDI Trust Funds Resulting From Changed Interest Rate Provided in 1960 Amendments, by Margaret A. Lannen (January 1969)
Note #48 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDHI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Margaret A. Lannen (December 1968)
Note #47 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDHI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Margaret A. Lannen (October 1968)
Note #46 Termination Experience of Disabled-Child Benefits Under OASDI, by Francisco Bayo (September 1968)
Note #45 Disability Incidence Rates Under OASDI System for Disability Onsets Occurring in 1956-63, by Robert J. Myers and Francisco Bayo (August 1968)
Note #44 Comparison of Actual Experience Under Medicare With Original Estimates, 1966-67, by Robert J. Myers (July 1968)
Note #43 Retirement Experience of Old-Age Beneficiaries, 1958-67, by Francisco Bayo (June 1968)
Note #42 OASDI Benefit Increases Resulting From the Conversion of Monthly Rates Under the 1967 Amendments, by Roger Hicks (April 1968)
Note #41 Illustrative Total Monthly Family Benefits Under the 1967 Amendments, by Jane M. Ceccarelli (March 1968)
Note #40 Maximum Benefits Under the Social Security Amendments of 1967, by Jane M. Ceccarelli (March 1968)
Note #39 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDHI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Margaret A. Lannen (May 1967)
Note #38 Analysis of the Fertility Assumptions for the OASDI Long-Range Level-Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Francisco Bayo (June 1967)
Note #37 Comparison of Recent Projections of the United States Population, by Robert J. Myers and Francisco Bayo (May 1967)
Note #36 Disability Incidence Rates Under OASDI System for Disability Onsets Occurring in 1956-62, by Robert J. Myers and Francisco Bayo (January 1967)
Note #35 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDHI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Margaret A. Lannen (December 1966)
Note #34 Additional Interest Earnings of OASDI Trust Funds Resulting From Changed Interest Rate Provided in 1960 Amendments, by Margaret A. Lannen (December 1966)
Note #33 Vested Benefits, by Jane M. Ceccarelli (November 1966)
Note #32 Relationship of Child Beneficiaries to Old-Age Beneficiaries, by Robert J. Myers (August 1966)
Note #31 Enrollment for Supplementary Medical Insurance, July 1, 1966, by George I. Kowalczyk (August 1966)
Note #30 Mortality Study of Charter Beneficiaries, by Robert J. Myers (July 1966)
Note #29 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Margaret A. Lannen (May 1966)
Note #28 Retirement Experience of Old-Age Beneficiaries, by Francisco Bayo (March 1966)
Note #27 Comparison of Actual Experience Under OASDI System With Short-Range Cost Estimates, by Robert J. Myers and Margaret A. Lannen (February 1966)
Note #26 Additional Interest Earnings of OASDI Trust Funds Resulting From Changed Interest Rate Provided in 1960 Amendments, by Marice C. Hart and Margaret A. Lannen (January 1966)
Note #25 Illustrative Total Monthly Family Benefits Under the 1965 Amendments, by Margaret A. Lannen (December 1965)
Note #24 Arkansas Titan II Missile Site Disaster: An Actuarial Analysis of Survivor Benefits Payable, by George I. Kowalczyk (December 1965)
Note #23 OASDI Benefit Increases Resulting From the Conversion of Monthly Rates Under the 1965 Amendments, by Gerald Hutchinson and Terence Hawkes (December 1965)
Note #22 Payees for Lump-Sum Death Payments Awarded in 1964, by Wayne Long (August 1965)
Note #21 Maximum Benefits Under the Social Security Amendments of 1965, by Marice C. Hart (August 1965)
Note #20 Studies on the Relationship of Contributions to Benefits in Old-Age Benefit Awards,, by Robert J. Myers and Bertram Oppal (June 1965)
Note #19 Quarterly Distribution of OASDI Contributions Within a Calendar Year, Particularly When a Change in Financing Is Made, by Robert J. Myers (June 1965)
Note #18 Disability Incidence Rates Under OASDI System for Disability Onsets Occurring in 1956-61, by Robert J. Myers (April 1965)
Note #17 Distribution of OASDI Contributions Within a Calendar Year, Particularly When a Change in Financing Is Made, by Robert J. Myers (March 1965)
Note #16 Additional Interest Earnings of OASDI Trust Funds Resulting From Changed Interest Rate Provided in 1960 Amendments, by Marice C. Hart (February 1965)
Note #15 Age Characteristics of Child's Insurance Beneficiaries Under OASDI, by Robert J. Myers and Jane M. Ceccarelli (March 1965)
Note #14 Joint-Life Immediate Annuities Based on the United States Life Tables for White Persons, 1959-61, by Francisco Bayo (March 1965)
Note #13 Payees for Lump-Sum Death Payments Awarded in 1963, by Wayne Long (August 1964)
Note #12 Voluntary Contributions Under the Civil Service Retirement Act, by Charles Baughman (March 1964)
Note #11 Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance - Family Benefits in Current-Payment Status, June 30, 1963, by Roger Hicks (January 1964)
Note #10 Conversion of Existing Benefits Under Formula Changes, by Marice C. Hart (January 1964)
Note #9 Proportion of Aged Persons Receiving OASDI Benefits and Proportion Receiving OAA Payments, by State, June 1963, by Terence Hawkes (December 1963)
Note #8 Average Value of Invested Funds, OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 1962, by Milton Glanz (January 1964)
Note #7 U.S.S. Thresher Disaster: An Actuarial Analysis of Survivor Benefits Payable, by George I. Kowalczyk (December 1963)
Note #6 Mortality Trends in the United States, 1900-60, by Robert J. Myers (October 1963)
Note #5 Payees for Lump-Sum Death Payments Awarded in 1962, by Gerald Hutchinson (August 1963)
Note #4 Comparison of Mortality in Large Western European Countries With That of the United States, by Robert J. Myers (August 1963)
Note #3 Summary History of Cost Estimates for Disability Benefits, by Robert J. Myers (July 1963)
Note #2 Actuarial Analysis of the Relative Value of Refunds Versus Deferred Annuities Under the Civil Service Retirement System, by Robert J. Myers (May 1963)
Note #1 Disability and Old-Age Benefits in Current-Payment Status, by State December 31, 1962, by Gerald Hutchinson (March 1963)


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