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Principal Demographic Assumptions

Single-Year Tables

Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions

Table V.A1.- Principal Demographic Assumptions,
Calendar Years 1940-2086


Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate a
  Age-sex-adjusted death rate b
per 100,000, by age
  Net immigration c
Total   Under 65   65 and over Legal d   Other e

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,779.1   673.0   9,569.0   45,000  
1941   2.33   1,700.7   651.2   9,091.7   30,000  
1942   2.55   1,643.6   628.8   8,791.0   20,000  
1943   2.64   1,712.1   631.8   9,320.0   20,000  
1944   2.49   1,630.7   611.5   8,808.4   25,000  
1945   2.42   1,586.6   601.8   8,522.4   55,000  
1946   2.86   1,536.1   569.9   8,340.8   95,000  
1947   3.18   1,535.3   544.8   8,510.9   120,000  
1948   3.03   1,502.3   532.0   8,335.9   135,000  
1949   3.04   1,456.6   514.0   8,094.7   165,000  
1950   3.03   1,435.6   499.4   8,028.3   170,000  
1951   3.20   1,423.3   495.1   7,960.5   175,000  
1952   3.29   1,396.2   489.0   7,785.1   165,000  
1953   3.35   1,387.2   476.2   7,803.0   140,000  
1954   3.46   1,316.2   449.1   7,422.9   165,000  
1955   3.50   1,334.2   442.8   7,612.2   210,000  
1956   3.60   1,334.3   440.8   7,626.3   245,000  
1957   3.68   1,356.9   449.0   7,751.2   220,000  
1958   3.63   1,344.3   439.8   7,714.6   195,000  
1959   3.64   1,319.2   433.8   7,555.0   195,000  
1960   3.61   1,330.9   436.9   7,626.7   200,000  
1961   3.56   1,299.1   423.6   7,464.6   210,000  
1962   3.42   1,323.2   428.4   7,624.9   220,000  
1963   3.30   1,344.5   434.7   7,751.4   225,000  
1964   3.17   1,302.6   431.2   7,438.9   220,000  
1965   2.88   1,304.6   430.0   7,464.0   230,000  
1966   2.67   1,307.8   431.9   7,476.8   255,000  
1967   2.53   1,273.1   424.6   7,248.1   305,000  
1968   2.43   1,295.1   435.3   7,350.4   305,000  
1969   2.42   1,255.7   428.3   7,082.9   275,000  
1970   2.43   1,224.3   422.6   6,870.7   280,000  
1971   2.25   1,217.2   410.7   6,897.0   285,000  
1972   1.99   1,212.5   408.2   6,877.0   295,000  
1973   1.86   1,194.7   401.8   6,778.8   300,000  
1974   1.82   1,145.4   384.7   6,502.8   295,000  
1975   1.77   1,099.0   369.5   6,236.4   295,000  
1976   1.74   1,088.8   359.7   6,223.5   315,000  
1977   1.80   1,057.5   350.7   6,035.2   375,000  
1978   1.76   1,052.1   344.6   6,035.3   425,000  
1979   1.82   1,017.3   333.8   5,831.1   360,000  
1980   1.82   1,035.9   331.9   5,993.6   410,000   290,000
1981   1.80   1,007.2   323.2   5,823.9   445,000   300,000
1982   1.81   975.8   312.0   5,650.9   440,000   305,000
1983   1.78   987.7   306.9   5,782.6   415,000   325,000
1984   1.79   980.1   304.2   5,740.0   415,000   345,000
1985   1.83   984.2   303.6   5,777.6   435,000   355,000
1986   1.83   975.3   302.5   5,713.8   450,000   375,000
1987   1.86   983.5   299.6   5,799.9   460,000   380,000
1988   1.92   974.9   299.3   5,733.2   475,000   355,000
1989   2.00   948.8   294.9   5,553.9   465,000   395,000
1990   2.07   931.2   289.4   5,451.1   500,000   530,000
1991   2.06   918.8   286.2   5,373.5   550,000   525,000
1992   2.04   905.4   280.2   5,308.5   620,000   490,000
1993   2.02   927.2   283.1   5,463.3   645,000   485,000
1994   2.00   916.2   280.5   5,392.7   585,000   515,000
1995   1.98   913.9   277.3   5,397.5   575,000   470,000
1996   1.98   900.4   266.1   5,367.2   665,000   385,000
1997   1.97   885.1   253.6   5,332.5   570,000   460,000
1998   2.00   878.3   246.9   5,325.2   490,000   510,000
1999   2.01   884.4   245.0   5,387.5   520,000   510,000
2000   2.05   875.7   243.4   5,328.3   670,000   610,000
2001   2.03   867.5   243.7   5,260.7   795,000   610,000
2002   2.03   863.9   243.0   5,236.6   730,000   610,000
2003   2.06   851.8   241.7   5,148.2   575,000   615,000
2004   2.06   820.4   235.4   4,940.6   750,000   615,000
2005   2.06   822.6   236.6   4,949.3   870,000   1,015,000
2006   2.12   799.8   234.2   4,783.5   910,000   675,000
2007   2.13   782.1   228.9   4,678.1   800,000   -20,000
2008 f   2.09   789.6   230.0   4,730.9   835,000   -800,000
2009 f   2.03   781.5   228.4   4,676.7   850,000   -10,000
2010 f   2.08   773.8   226.8   4,625.4   825,000   -5,000

Intermediate:
2011   2.07   766.5   225.4   4,577.1   790,000   105,000
2012   2.07   759.6   223.8   4,532.4   750,000   210,000
2013   2.07   752.8   222.1   4,490.3   750,000   310,000
2014   2.06   746.2   220.3   4,450.0   750,000   410,000
2015   2.06   739.6   218.3   4,411.0   750,000   500,000
2016   2.06   733.2   216.3   4,373.1   750,000   490,000
2017   2.05   726.7   214.2   4,336.0   750,000   475,000
2018   2.05   720.4   212.1   4,299.6   750,000   465,000
2019   2.05   714.0   210.0   4,263.8   750,000   455,000
2020   2.05   707.8   207.8   4,228.6   750,000   445,000
2021   2.04   701.6   205.7   4,193.9   750,000   435,000
2022   2.04   695.4   203.5   4,159.7   750,000   430,000
2023   2.04   689.4   201.4   4,125.9   750,000   420,000
2024   2.03   683.3   199.2   4,092.6   750,000   410,000
2025   2.03   677.4   197.1   4,059.7   750,000   400,000
2026   2.03   671.5   195.0   4,027.3   750,000   395,000
2027   2.02   665.7   192.9   3,995.3   750,000   385,000
2028   2.02   660.0   190.9   3,963.7   750,000   380,000
2029   2.02   654.3   188.8   3,932.5   750,000   370,000
2030   2.02   648.7   186.8   3,901.7   750,000   365,000
2031   2.01   643.2   184.8   3,871.4   750,000   360,000
2032   2.01   637.7   182.8   3,841.4   750,000   355,000
2033   2.01   632.4   180.9   3,811.9   750,000   345,000
2034   2.00   627.1   179.0   3,782.7   750,000   340,000
2035   2.00   621.8   177.1   3,753.8   750,000   340,000
2036   2.00   616.6   175.2   3,725.4   750,000   335,000
2037   2.00   611.5   173.3   3,697.3   750,000   330,000
2038   2.00   606.5   171.5   3,669.6   750,000   325,000
2039   2.00   601.5   169.7   3,642.3   750,000   325,000
2040   2.00   596.6   167.9   3,615.3   750,000   320,000
2041   2.00   591.7   166.2   3,588.6   750,000   315,000
2042   2.00   586.9   164.4   3,562.3   750,000   315,000
2043   2.00   582.2   162.7   3,536.4   750,000   310,000
2044   2.00   577.5   161.0   3,510.8   750,000   310,000
2045   2.00   572.9   159.4   3,485.5   750,000   305,000
2046   2.00   568.4   157.7   3,460.5   750,000   305,000
2047   2.00   563.9   156.1   3,435.8   750,000   305,000
2048   2.00   559.5   154.5   3,411.5   750,000   300,000
2049   2.00   555.1   152.9   3,387.5   750,000   300,000
2050   2.00   550.8   151.4   3,363.7   750,000   300,000
2051   2.00   546.5   149.8   3,340.3   750,000   295,000
2052   2.00   542.3   148.3   3,317.1   750,000   295,000
2053   2.00   538.2   146.8   3,294.3   750,000   295,000
2054   2.00   534.1   145.3   3,271.7   750,000   295,000
2055   2.00   530.0   143.9   3,249.4   750,000   290,000
2056   2.00   526.0   142.5   3,227.3   750,000   290,000
2057   2.00   522.1   141.0   3,205.6   750,000   290,000
2058   2.00   518.2   139.6   3,184.1   750,000   290,000
2059   2.00   514.3   138.2   3,162.8   750,000   290,000
2060   2.00   510.5   136.9   3,141.9   750,000   290,000
2061   2.00   506.7   135.5   3,121.1   750,000   285,000
2062   2.00   503.0   134.2   3,100.6   750,000   285,000
2063   2.00   499.4   132.9   3,080.4   750,000   285,000
2064   2.00   495.7   131.6   3,060.4   750,000   285,000
2065   2.00   492.2   130.3   3,040.6   750,000   285,000
2066   2.00   488.6   129.0   3,021.1   750,000   285,000
2067   2.00   485.1   127.8   3,001.7   750,000   285,000
2068   2.00   481.7   126.5   2,982.6   750,000   280,000
2069   2.00   478.2   125.3   2,963.8   750,000   280,000
2070   2.00   474.9   124.1   2,945.1   750,000   280,000
2071   2.00   471.5   122.9   2,926.7   750,000   280,000
2072   2.00   468.2   121.7   2,908.4   750,000   280,000
2073   2.00   465.0   120.6   2,890.4   750,000   280,000
2074   2.00   461.8   119.4   2,872.6   750,000   280,000
2075   2.00   458.6   118.3   2,855.0   750,000   280,000
2076   2.00   455.4   117.2   2,837.6   750,000   280,000
2077   2.00   452.3   116.1   2,820.3   750,000   280,000
2078   2.00   449.3   115.0   2,803.3   750,000   280,000
2079   2.00   446.2   113.9   2,786.4   750,000   280,000
2080   2.00   443.2   112.8   2,769.8   750,000   280,000
2081   2.00   440.2   111.8   2,753.3   750,000   280,000
2082   2.00   437.3   110.8   2,737.0   750,000   280,000
2083   2.00   434.4   109.7   2,720.9   750,000   280,000
2084   2.00   431.5   108.7   2,704.9   750,000   275,000
2085   2.00   428.7   107.7   2,689.1   750,000   275,000
2086   2.00   425.9   106.7   2,673.5   750,000   275,000

Low-cost:
2011   2.08   773.5   227.2   4,620.9   920,000   355,000
2012   2.09   772.9   227.3   4,615.1   960,000   705,000
2013   2.10   771.9   227.2   4,608.1   960,000   680,000
2014   2.11   770.6   226.8   4,599.8   960,000   660,000
2015   2.12   769.0   226.4   4,590.3   960,000   645,000
2016   2.13   767.2   225.8   4,579.8   960,000   625,000
2017   2.14   765.2   225.1   4,568.5   960,000   610,000
2018   2.15   763.0   224.3   4,556.5   960,000   595,000
2019   2.16   760.7   223.5   4,543.9   960,000   585,000
2020   2.17   758.3   222.6   4,530.8   960,000   570,000
2021   2.17   755.8   221.7   4,517.4   960,000   560,000
2022   2.18   753.3   220.7   4,503.7   960,000   545,000
2023   2.19   750.7   219.7   4,489.8   960,000   535,000
2024   2.20   748.1   218.8   4,475.7   960,000   525,000
2025   2.21   745.4   217.7   4,461.5   960,000   515,000
2026   2.22   742.8   216.7   4,447.3   960,000   505,000
2027   2.23   740.1   215.7   4,433.0   960,000   495,000
2028   2.24   737.4   214.7   4,418.7   960,000   485,000
2029   2.25   734.7   213.7   4,404.4   960,000   475,000
2030   2.26   732.1   212.7   4,390.1   960,000   465,000
2031   2.26   729.4   211.6   4,375.9   960,000   460,000
2032   2.27   726.8   210.6   4,361.7   960,000   450,000
2033   2.28   724.1   209.6   4,347.5   960,000   445,000
2034   2.29   721.5   208.6   4,333.5   960,000   440,000
2035   2.30   718.9   207.6   4,319.4   960,000   430,000
2036   2.30   716.2   206.6   4,305.3   960,000   425,000
2037   2.30   713.6   205.6   4,291.4   960,000   420,000
2038   2.30   711.0   204.6   4,277.6   960,000   415,000
2039   2.30   708.5   203.6   4,263.8   960,000   410,000
2040   2.30   705.9   202.7   4,250.1   960,000   410,000
2041   2.30   703.4   201.7   4,236.6   960,000   405,000
2042   2.30   700.9   200.7   4,223.1   960,000   400,000
2043   2.30   698.4   199.8   4,209.6   960,000   395,000
2044   2.30   695.9   198.8   4,196.3   960,000   390,000
2045   2.30   693.4   197.9   4,183.1   960,000   390,000
2046   2.30   691.0   197.0   4,169.9   960,000   385,000
2047   2.30   688.5   196.0   4,156.8   960,000   385,000
2048   2.30   686.1   195.1   4,143.8   960,000   380,000
2049   2.30   683.7   194.2   4,130.9   960,000   380,000
2050   2.30   681.3   193.3   4,118.0   960,000   375,000
2051   2.30   678.9   192.4   4,105.2   960,000   375,000
2052   2.30   676.6   191.5   4,092.5   960,000   370,000
2053   2.30   674.2   190.6   4,079.9   960,000   370,000
2054   2.30   671.9   189.7   4,067.4   960,000   370,000
2055   2.30   669.6   188.9   4,054.9   960,000   365,000
2056   2.30   667.3   188.0   4,042.6   960,000   365,000
2057   2.30   665.0   187.1   4,030.2   960,000   365,000
2058   2.30   662.7   186.3   4,018.0   960,000   360,000
2059   2.30   660.5   185.4   4,005.8   960,000   360,000
2060   2.30   658.2   184.6   3,993.8   960,000   360,000
2061   2.30   656.0   183.7   3,981.7   960,000   360,000
2062   2.30   653.8   182.9   3,969.8   960,000   360,000
2063   2.30   651.6   182.1   3,957.9   960,000   355,000
2064   2.30   649.4   181.3   3,946.1   960,000   355,000
2065   2.30   647.2   180.4   3,934.4   960,000   355,000
2066   2.30   645.0   179.6   3,922.7   960,000   355,000
2067   2.30   642.9   178.8   3,911.1   960,000   355,000
2068   2.30   640.8   178.0   3,899.6   960,000   355,000
2069   2.30   638.6   177.2   3,888.2   960,000   350,000
2070   2.30   636.5   176.4   3,876.8   960,000   350,000
2071   2.30   634.4   175.6   3,865.5   960,000   350,000
2072   2.30   632.3   174.9   3,854.2   960,000   350,000
2073   2.30   630.3   174.1   3,843.0   960,000   350,000
2074   2.30   628.2   173.3   3,831.9   960,000   350,000
2075   2.30   626.2   172.5   3,820.8   960,000   350,000
2076   2.30   624.1   171.8   3,809.8   960,000   350,000
2077   2.30   622.1   171.0   3,798.9   960,000   350,000
2078   2.30   620.1   170.3   3,788.1   960,000   350,000
2079   2.30   618.1   169.5   3,777.3   960,000   350,000
2080   2.30   616.1   168.8   3,766.5   960,000   350,000
2081   2.30   614.2   168.1   3,755.8   960,000   350,000
2082   2.30   612.2   167.3   3,745.2   960,000   350,000
2083   2.30   610.2   166.6   3,734.7   960,000   350,000
2084   2.30   608.3   165.9   3,724.2   960,000   350,000
2085   2.30   606.4   165.2   3,713.7   960,000   350,000
2086   2.30   604.5   164.4   3,703.4   960,000   345,000

High-cost:
2011   2.06   759.5   223.7   4,533.3   665,000   -45,000
2012   2.05   746.2   220.5   4,448.8   560,000   -85,000
2013   2.03   733.6   217.3   4,369.8   560,000   -70,000
2014   2.02   721.5   214.1   4,295.0   560,000   45,000
2015   2.00   709.8   210.9   4,223.4   560,000   150,000
2016   1.99   698.5   207.8   4,154.4   560,000   255,000
2017   1.97   687.4   204.6   4,087.7   560,000   350,000
2018   1.96   676.6   201.4   4,023.0   560,000   345,000
2019   1.94   666.0   198.3   3,960.0   560,000   335,000
2020   1.93   655.7   195.2   3,898.8   560,000   330,000
2021   1.91   645.6   192.2   3,839.0   560,000   320,000
2022   1.90   635.7   189.1   3,780.8   560,000   315,000
2023   1.88   626.1   186.2   3,723.9   560,000   310,000
2024   1.87   616.6   183.2   3,668.4   560,000   300,000
2025   1.85   607.3   180.4   3,614.2   560,000   295,000
2026   1.84   598.2   177.5   3,561.3   560,000   290,000
2027   1.82   589.4   174.7   3,509.5   560,000   280,000
2028   1.81   580.7   172.0   3,458.9   560,000   275,000
2029   1.79   572.2   169.3   3,409.5   560,000   270,000
2030   1.78   563.8   166.6   3,361.2   560,000   265,000
2031   1.76   555.7   164.0   3,313.9   560,000   260,000
2032   1.75   547.7   161.5   3,267.7   560,000   255,000
2033   1.73   539.9   158.9   3,222.6   560,000   250,000
2034   1.72   532.2   156.5   3,178.4   560,000   250,000
2035   1.70   524.7   154.0   3,135.1   560,000   245,000
2036   1.70   517.4   151.7   3,092.8   560,000   240,000
2037   1.70   510.2   149.3   3,051.5   560,000   240,000
2038   1.70   503.1   147.0   3,011.0   560,000   235,000
2039   1.70   496.2   144.8   2,971.3   560,000   235,000
2040   1.70   489.5   142.5   2,932.6   560,000   235,000
2041   1.70   482.8   140.4   2,894.6   560,000   230,000
2042   1.70   476.3   138.2   2,857.4   560,000   230,000
2043   1.70   470.0   136.1   2,821.0   560,000   230,000
2044   1.70   463.7   134.1   2,785.4   560,000   230,000
2045   1.70   457.6   132.1   2,750.5   560,000   225,000
2046   1.70   451.6   130.1   2,716.4   560,000   225,000
2047   1.70   445.8   128.1   2,682.9   560,000   225,000
2048   1.70   440.0   126.2   2,650.1   560,000   225,000
2049   1.70   434.4   124.3   2,618.0   560,000   225,000
2050   1.70   428.8   122.5   2,586.5   560,000   225,000
2051   1.70   423.4   120.6   2,555.6   560,000   225,000
2052   1.70   418.1   118.9   2,525.4   560,000   220,000
2053   1.70   412.9   117.1   2,495.8   560,000   220,000
2054   1.70   407.7   115.4   2,466.7   560,000   220,000
2055   1.70   402.7   113.7   2,438.2   560,000   220,000
2056   1.70   397.8   112.0   2,410.3   560,000   220,000
2057   1.70   392.9   110.4   2,382.9   560,000   220,000
2058   1.70   388.2   108.8   2,356.0   560,000   220,000
2059   1.70   383.5   107.2   2,329.6   560,000   220,000
2060   1.70   378.9   105.6   2,303.8   560,000   220,000
2061   1.70   374.4   104.1   2,278.4   560,000   220,000
2062   1.70   370.0   102.6   2,253.5   560,000   220,000
2063   1.70   365.7   101.1   2,229.0   560,000   220,000
2064   1.70   361.4   99.7   2,205.1   560,000   220,000
2065   1.70   357.3   98.2   2,181.5   560,000   215,000
2066   1.70   353.2   96.8   2,158.4   560,000   215,000
2067   1.70   349.1   95.5   2,135.7   560,000   215,000
2068   1.70   345.2   94.1   2,113.4   560,000   215,000
2069   1.70   341.3   92.8   2,091.5   560,000   215,000
2070   1.70   337.5   91.4   2,070.0   560,000   215,000
2071   1.70   333.7   90.2   2,048.8   560,000   215,000
2072   1.70   330.0   88.9   2,028.0   560,000   215,000
2073   1.70   326.4   87.6   2,007.6   560,000   215,000
2074   1.70   322.8   86.4   1,987.6   560,000   215,000
2075   1.70   319.3   85.2   1,967.9   560,000   215,000
2076   1.70   315.8   84.0   1,948.5   560,000   215,000
2077   1.70   312.5   82.8   1,929.4   560,000   215,000
2078   1.70   309.1   81.7   1,910.7   560,000   215,000
2079   1.70   305.8   80.6   1,892.3   560,000   210,000
2080   1.70   302.6   79.5   1,874.2   560,000   210,000
2081   1.70   299.4   78.4   1,856.4   560,000   210,000
2082   1.70   296.3   77.3   1,838.8   560,000   210,000
2083   1.70   293.2   76.2   1,821.6   560,000   210,000
2084   1.70   290.2   75.2   1,804.6   560,000   210,000
2085   1.70   287.2   74.2   1,787.9   560,000   210,000
2086   1.70   284.3   73.1   1,771.5   560,000   210,000

a The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2035.
b The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
c Net immigration values are rounded to the nearest 5,000.
d Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration. Estimates do not include persons who attained legal permanent residence status under the special one-time provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.
e Historical net other immigration estimates are based on a residual method. The total other population is forced to match the Department of Homeland Security estimates for 2005 through 2009.
f Estimated.
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