Single-Year Tables Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions


Table V.A1.- Principal Demographic Assumptions,
Calendar Years 1940-2090


Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate  a
  Age-sex-adjusted death rate  b
per 100,000, by age
  Net immigration  c  d
Total   Under 65   65 and over Legal  e   Other  f

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,779.1   673.0   9,569.0   45,000  
1941   2.33   1,700.7   651.2   9,091.7   30,000  
1942   2.55   1,643.6   628.8   8,791.0   20,000  
1943   2.64   1,712.1   631.8   9,320.0   20,000  
1944   2.49   1,630.7   611.5   8,808.4   25,000  
1945   2.42   1,586.6   601.8   8,522.4   55,000  
1946   2.86   1,536.1   569.9   8,340.8   95,000  
1947   3.18   1,535.3   544.8   8,510.9   120,000  
1948   3.03   1,502.3   532.0   8,335.9   135,000  
1949   3.04   1,456.6   514.0   8,094.7   165,000  
1950   3.03   1,435.6   499.4   8,028.3   170,000  
1951   3.20   1,423.3   495.1   7,960.5   175,000  
1952   3.29   1,396.2   489.0   7,785.1   165,000  
1953   3.35   1,387.2   476.2   7,803.0   140,000  
1954   3.46   1,316.2   449.1   7,422.9   165,000  
1955   3.50   1,334.2   442.8   7,612.2   210,000  
1956   3.60   1,334.3   440.8   7,626.3   245,000  
1957   3.68   1,356.9   449.0   7,751.2   220,000  
1958   3.63   1,344.3   439.8   7,714.6   195,000  
1959   3.64   1,319.2   433.8   7,555.0   195,000  
1960   3.61   1,330.9   436.9   7,626.7   200,000  
1961   3.56   1,299.1   423.6   7,464.6   210,000  
1962   3.42   1,323.2   428.4   7,624.9   220,000  
1963   3.30   1,344.5   434.7   7,751.4   225,000  
1964   3.17   1,302.6   431.2   7,438.9   220,000  
1965   2.88   1,304.6   430.0   7,464.0   230,000  
1966   2.67   1,307.8   431.9   7,476.8   255,000  
1967   2.53   1,273.1   424.6   7,248.1   305,000  
1968   2.43   1,295.1   435.3   7,350.4   305,000  
1969   2.42   1,255.7   428.3   7,082.9   275,000  
1970   2.43   1,224.3   422.6   6,870.7   280,000  
1971   2.25   1,217.2   410.7   6,897.0   285,000  
1972   1.99   1,212.5   408.2   6,877.0   295,000  
1973   1.86   1,194.7   401.8   6,778.8   300,000  
1974   1.82   1,145.4   384.7   6,502.8   295,000  
1975   1.77   1,099.0   369.5   6,236.4   295,000  
1976   1.74   1,088.8   359.7   6,223.5   315,000  
1977   1.80   1,057.5   350.7   6,035.2   375,000  
1978   1.76   1,052.1   344.6   6,035.3   425,000  
1979   1.82   1,017.3   333.8   5,831.1   360,000  
1980   1.82   1,035.9   331.9   5,993.6   410,000   215,000
1981   1.80   1,007.2   323.2   5,823.9   445,000   230,000
1982   1.81   975.8   312.0   5,650.9   440,000   230,000
1983   1.78   987.7   306.9   5,782.6   415,000   250,000
1984   1.79   980.1   304.2   5,740.0   415,000   275,000
1985   1.83   984.2   303.6   5,777.6   435,000   280,000
1986   1.83   975.3   302.5   5,713.8   450,000   300,000
1987   1.86   983.5   299.6   5,799.9   460,000   300,000
1988   1.92   974.9   299.3   5,733.2   475,000   275,000
1989   2.00   948.8   294.9   5,553.9   465,000   315,000
1990   2.07   931.2   289.4   5,451.1   500,000   630,000
1991   2.06   918.8   286.2   5,373.5   550,000   630,000
1992   2.04   905.4   280.2   5,308.5   620,000   590,000
1993   2.02   927.2   283.1   5,463.3   645,000   590,000
1994   2.00   916.2   280.5   5,392.7   585,000   620,000
1995   1.98   913.9   277.3   5,397.5   575,000   575,000
1996   1.98   900.4   266.1   5,367.2   665,000   490,000
1997   1.97   885.1   253.6   5,332.5   570,000   565,000
1998   2.00   878.3   246.9   5,325.2   490,000   610,000
1999   2.01   884.4   245.0   5,387.5   520,000   615,000
2000   2.05   875.7   243.4   5,328.3   670,000   655,000
2001   2.03   867.5   243.7   5,260.7   795,000   660,000
2002   2.03   863.9   243.0   5,236.6   730,000   660,000
2003   2.06   851.8   241.7   5,148.2   575,000   665,000
2004   2.06   820.4   235.4   4,940.6   750,000   665,000
2005   2.06   822.6   236.6   4,949.3   870,000   1,045,000
2006   2.12   799.8   234.2   4,783.5   910,000   710,000
2007   2.13   782.1   228.9   4,678.1   800,000   10,000
2008 g   2.08   789.5   229.9   4,730.4   835,000   -770,000
2009 g   2.01   781.3   228.3   4,675.8   830,000   40,000
2010 g   1.95   773.5   226.8   4,624.2   780,000   60,000
2011 g   2.03   766.2   225.3   4,575.3   750,000   150,000

Intermediate:
2012   2.04   759.3   224.0   4,529.2   750,000   210,000
2013   2.05   752.6   222.4   4,486.6   750,000   310,000
2014   2.05   746.1   220.7   4,446.3   750,000   410,000
2015   2.06   739.8   218.9   4,407.7   750,000   500,000
2016   2.05   733.4   217.0   4,370.4   750,000   490,000
2017   2.05   727.2   215.0   4,334.1   750,000   480,000
2018   2.05   720.9   212.9   4,298.5   750,000   470,000
2019   2.05   714.7   210.8   4,263.6   750,000   460,000
2020   2.04   708.6   208.7   4,229.3   750,000   455,000
2021   2.04   702.5   206.6   4,195.4   750,000   445,000
2022   2.04   696.5   204.4   4,162.1   750,000   435,000
2023   2.03   690.5   202.2   4,129.2   750,000   430,000
2024   2.03   684.6   200.1   4,096.7   750,000   420,000
2025   2.03   678.7   197.9   4,064.7   750,000   410,000
2026   2.03   672.9   195.8   4,033.0   750,000   405,000
2027   2.02   667.2   193.7   4,001.8   750,000   395,000
2028   2.02   661.5   191.6   3,971.0   750,000   390,000
2029   2.02   655.9   189.5   3,940.6   750,000   380,000
2030   2.02   650.4   187.5   3,910.6   750,000   375,000
2031   2.01   645.0   185.5   3,880.9   750,000   365,000
2032   2.01   639.6   183.5   3,851.6   750,000   360,000
2033   2.01   634.2   181.5   3,822.7   750,000   355,000
2034   2.01   629.0   179.5   3,794.2   750,000   350,000
2035   2.00   623.8   177.6   3,766.0   750,000   345,000
2036   2.00   618.6   175.7   3,738.2   750,000   340,000
2037   2.00   613.6   173.8   3,710.7   750,000   335,000
2038   2.00   608.6   171.9   3,683.6   750,000   330,000
2039   2.00   603.6   170.1   3,656.8   750,000   325,000
2040   2.00   598.8   168.3   3,630.4   750,000   325,000
2041   2.00   594.0   166.5   3,604.3   750,000   320,000
2042   2.00   589.2   164.7   3,578.5   750,000   315,000
2043   2.00   584.5   163.0   3,553.0   750,000   315,000
2044   2.00   579.9   161.3   3,527.9   750,000   310,000
2045   2.00   575.3   159.6   3,503.1   750,000   310,000
2046   2.00   570.8   157.9   3,478.6   750,000   305,000
2047   2.00   566.3   156.3   3,454.4   750,000   305,000
2048   2.00   561.9   154.6   3,430.5   750,000   305,000
2049   2.00   557.6   153.0   3,406.8   750,000   300,000
2050   2.00   553.3   151.4   3,383.5   750,000   300,000
2051   2.00   549.1   149.9   3,360.5   750,000   300,000
2052   2.00   544.9   148.3   3,337.7   750,000   295,000
2053   2.00   540.8   146.8   3,315.2   750,000   295,000
2054   2.00   536.7   145.3   3,293.0   750,000   295,000
2055   2.00   532.7   143.8   3,271.0   750,000   295,000
2056   2.00   528.7   142.3   3,249.3   750,000   290,000
2057   2.00   524.7   140.9   3,227.9   750,000   290,000
2058   2.00   520.8   139.5   3,206.7   750,000   290,000
2059   2.00   517.0   138.1   3,185.8   750,000   290,000
2060   2.00   513.2   136.7   3,165.1   750,000   290,000
2061   2.00   509.5   135.3   3,144.6   750,000   290,000
2062   2.00   505.8   133.9   3,124.4   750,000   285,000
2063   2.00   502.1   132.6   3,104.4   750,000   285,000
2064   2.00   498.5   131.3   3,084.7   750,000   285,000
2065   2.00   494.9   130.0   3,065.1   750,000   285,000
2066   2.00   491.4   128.7   3,045.8   750,000   285,000
2067   2.00   487.9   127.4   3,026.7   750,000   285,000
2068   2.00   484.4   126.1   3,007.8   750,000   285,000
2069   2.00   481.0   124.9   2,989.2   750,000   285,000
2070   2.00   477.7   123.7   2,970.7   750,000   285,000
2071   2.00   474.3   122.5   2,952.5   750,000   280,000
2072   2.00   471.0   121.3   2,934.4   750,000   280,000
2073   2.00   467.8   120.1   2,916.6   750,000   280,000
2074   2.00   464.6   118.9   2,898.9   750,000   280,000
2075   2.00   461.4   117.7   2,881.5   750,000   280,000
2076   2.00   458.2   116.6   2,864.2   750,000   280,000
2077   2.00   455.1   115.5   2,847.1   750,000   280,000
2078   2.00   452.1   114.4   2,830.2   750,000   280,000
2079   2.00   449.0   113.3   2,813.5   750,000   280,000
2080   2.00   446.0   112.2   2,796.9   750,000   280,000
2081   2.00   443.0   111.1   2,780.6   750,000   280,000
2082   2.00   440.1   110.0   2,764.4   750,000   280,000
2083   2.00   437.2   109.0   2,748.3   750,000   280,000
2084   2.00   434.3   108.0   2,732.5   750,000   280,000
2085   2.00   431.5   106.9   2,716.8   750,000   280,000
2086   2.00   428.6   105.9   2,701.3   750,000   280,000
2087   2.00   425.8   104.9   2,685.9   750,000   280,000
2088   2.00   423.1   103.9   2,670.7   750,000   280,000
2089   2.00   420.4   103.0   2,655.6   750,000   280,000
2090   2.00   417.7   102.0   2,640.7   750,000   275,000

Low-cost:
2012   2.05   766.0   225.7   4,571.4   880,000   210,000
2013   2.07   765.3   225.7   4,565.4   920,000   260,000
2014   2.09   764.2   225.5   4,557.4   960,000   315,000
2015   2.10   762.6   225.2   4,547.6   960,000   410,000
2016   2.11   760.7   224.6   4,536.3   960,000   500,000
2017   2.12   758.5   223.9   4,523.7   960,000   590,000
2018   2.13   756.1   223.1   4,510.0   960,000   675,000
2019   2.14   753.6   222.2   4,495.4   960,000   655,000
2020   2.15   750.8   221.3   4,480.2   960,000   635,000
2021   2.16   748.0   220.3   4,464.4   960,000   620,000
2022   2.17   745.0   219.2   4,448.2   960,000   605,000
2023   2.18   742.0   218.1   4,431.6   960,000   590,000
2024   2.19   739.0   217.0   4,414.8   960,000   575,000
2025   2.20   735.9   215.9   4,397.8   960,000   560,000
2026   2.21   732.8   214.8   4,380.8   960,000   550,000
2027   2.22   729.6   213.6   4,363.6   960,000   535,000
2028   2.23   726.5   212.5   4,346.4   960,000   525,000
2029   2.23   723.3   211.3   4,329.3   960,000   515,000
2030   2.24   720.2   210.2   4,312.1   960,000   505,000
2031   2.25   717.1   209.0   4,295.0   960,000   495,000
2032   2.26   713.9   207.9   4,277.9   960,000   485,000
2033   2.27   710.8   206.7   4,260.9   960,000   475,000
2034   2.28   707.7   205.6   4,244.0   960,000   465,000
2035   2.29   704.6   204.5   4,227.1   960,000   460,000
2036   2.30   701.5   203.3   4,210.3   960,000   450,000
2037   2.30   698.5   202.2   4,193.5   960,000   445,000
2038   2.30   695.4   201.1   4,176.9   960,000   440,000
2039   2.30   692.4   199.9   4,160.4   960,000   435,000
2040   2.30   689.4   198.8   4,144.0   960,000   430,000
2041   2.30   686.4   197.7   4,127.7   960,000   425,000
2042   2.30   683.4   196.6   4,111.5   960,000   420,000
2043   2.30   680.5   195.6   4,095.4   960,000   415,000
2044   2.30   677.5   194.5   4,079.4   960,000   410,000
2045   2.30   674.6   193.4   4,063.6   960,000   405,000
2046   2.30   671.7   192.4   4,047.8   960,000   405,000
2047   2.30   668.9   191.3   4,032.2   960,000   400,000
2048   2.30   666.0   190.3   4,016.6   960,000   395,000
2049   2.30   663.2   189.2   4,001.2   960,000   395,000
2050   2.30   660.4   188.2   3,985.8   960,000   390,000
2051   2.30   657.6   187.2   3,970.6   960,000   385,000
2052   2.30   654.8   186.1   3,955.5   960,000   385,000
2053   2.30   652.1   185.1   3,940.4   960,000   380,000
2054   2.30   649.3   184.1   3,925.5   960,000   380,000
2055   2.30   646.6   183.1   3,910.7   960,000   375,000
2056   2.30   643.9   182.1   3,895.9   960,000   375,000
2057   2.30   641.2   181.1   3,881.3   960,000   375,000
2058   2.30   638.6   180.2   3,866.7   960,000   370,000
2059   2.30   635.9   179.2   3,852.3   960,000   370,000
2060   2.30   633.3   178.2   3,837.9   960,000   365,000
2061   2.30   630.7   177.3   3,823.6   960,000   365,000
2062   2.30   628.1   176.3   3,809.5   960,000   365,000
2063   2.30   625.5   175.4   3,795.4   960,000   360,000
2064   2.30   622.9   174.4   3,781.4   960,000   360,000
2065   2.30   620.4   173.5   3,767.5   960,000   360,000
2066   2.30   617.8   172.6   3,753.7   960,000   360,000
2067   2.30   615.3   171.7   3,740.0   960,000   355,000
2068   2.30   612.8   170.7   3,726.3   960,000   355,000
2069   2.30   610.4   169.8   3,712.8   960,000   355,000
2070   2.30   607.9   168.9   3,699.3   960,000   355,000
2071   2.30   605.5   168.0   3,686.0   960,000   355,000
2072   2.30   603.0   167.1   3,672.7   960,000   355,000
2073   2.30   600.6   166.3   3,659.5   960,000   350,000
2074   2.30   598.2   165.4   3,646.4   960,000   350,000
2075   2.30   595.8   164.5   3,633.3   960,000   350,000
2076   2.30   593.4   163.6   3,620.4   960,000   350,000
2077   2.30   591.1   162.8   3,607.5   960,000   350,000
2078   2.30   588.8   161.9   3,594.7   960,000   350,000
2079   2.30   586.4   161.1   3,582.0   960,000   350,000
2080   2.30   584.1   160.2   3,569.3   960,000   350,000
2081   2.30   581.8   159.4   3,556.8   960,000   350,000
2082   2.30   579.5   158.6   3,544.3   960,000   350,000
2083   2.30   577.3   157.7   3,531.9   960,000   350,000
2084   2.30   575.0   156.9   3,519.6   960,000   350,000
2085   2.30   572.8   156.1   3,507.4   960,000   350,000
2086   2.30   570.6   155.3   3,495.2   960,000   345,000
2087   2.30   568.4   154.5   3,483.1   960,000   345,000
2088   2.30   566.2   153.7   3,471.1   960,000   345,000
2089   2.30   564.0   152.9   3,459.1   960,000   345,000
2090   2.30   561.8   152.1   3,447.3   960,000   345,000

High-cost:
2012   2.03   752.6   222.3   4,487.1   630,000   105,000
2013   2.02   739.9   219.1   4,407.6   595,000   15,000
2014   2.02   727.9   215.8   4,334.6   560,000   -75,000
2015   2.01   716.5   212.4   4,266.6   560,000   40,000
2016   1.99   705.5   209.0   4,202.4   560,000   150,000
2017   1.98   694.9   205.6   4,141.5   560,000   255,000
2018   1.96   684.7   202.1   4,083.1   560,000   350,000
2019   1.95   674.6   198.6   4,027.0   560,000   345,000
2020   1.93   664.9   195.2   3,972.7   560,000   340,000
2021   1.92   655.4   191.8   3,920.1   560,000   330,000
2022   1.91   646.1   188.4   3,869.1   560,000   325,000
2023   1.89   637.0   185.1   3,819.4   560,000   320,000
2024   1.88   628.1   181.8   3,771.0   560,000   310,000
2025   1.86   619.4   178.6   3,723.7   560,000   305,000
2026   1.85   610.9   175.5   3,677.6   560,000   300,000
2027   1.83   602.6   172.4   3,632.6   560,000   295,000
2028   1.82   594.5   169.3   3,588.5   560,000   285,000
2029   1.80   586.5   166.4   3,545.4   560,000   280,000
2030   1.79   578.7   163.4   3,503.3   560,000   275,000
2031   1.77   571.1   160.6   3,462.1   560,000   270,000
2032   1.76   563.6   157.8   3,421.7   560,000   265,000
2033   1.74   556.3   155.0   3,382.1   560,000   260,000
2034   1.73   549.1   152.4   3,343.4   560,000   255,000
2035   1.71   542.1   149.7   3,305.5   560,000   250,000
2036   1.70   535.2   147.2   3,268.3   560,000   245,000
2037   1.70   528.5   144.6   3,231.9   560,000   245,000
2038   1.70   521.9   142.2   3,196.2   560,000   240,000
2039   1.70   515.4   139.8   3,161.2   560,000   240,000
2040   1.70   509.1   137.4   3,126.8   560,000   235,000
2041   1.70   502.9   135.1   3,093.2   560,000   235,000
2042   1.70   496.8   132.8   3,060.1   560,000   235,000
2043   1.70   490.8   130.6   3,027.7   560,000   230,000
2044   1.70   485.0   128.4   2,996.0   560,000   230,000
2045   1.70   479.2   126.3   2,964.8   560,000   230,000
2046   1.70   473.6   124.2   2,934.2   560,000   230,000
2047   1.70   468.1   122.2   2,904.2   560,000   225,000
2048   1.70   462.7   120.2   2,874.7   560,000   225,000
2049   1.70   457.4   118.2   2,845.7   560,000   225,000
2050   1.70   452.2   116.3   2,817.3   560,000   225,000
2051   1.70   447.0   114.4   2,789.4   560,000   225,000
2052   1.70   442.0   112.6   2,762.0   560,000   225,000
2053   1.70   437.1   110.8   2,735.0   560,000   225,000
2054   1.70   432.3   109.0   2,708.6   560,000   220,000
2055   1.70   427.5   107.3   2,682.6   560,000   220,000
2056   1.70   422.9   105.6   2,657.0   560,000   220,000
2057   1.70   418.3   104.0   2,631.9   560,000   220,000
2058   1.70   413.8   102.3   2,607.2   560,000   220,000
2059   1.70   409.4   100.7   2,582.9   560,000   220,000
2060   1.70   405.0   99.2   2,559.1   560,000   220,000
2061   1.70   400.8   97.6   2,535.6   560,000   220,000
2062   1.70   396.6   96.1   2,512.5   560,000   220,000
2063   1.70   392.5   94.7   2,489.8   560,000   220,000
2064   1.70   388.4   93.2   2,467.4   560,000   220,000
2065   1.70   384.4   91.8   2,445.5   560,000   220,000
2066   1.70   380.5   90.4   2,423.8   560,000   220,000
2067   1.70   376.7   89.0   2,402.5   560,000   220,000
2068   1.70   372.9   87.7   2,381.6   560,000   215,000
2069   1.70   369.2   86.4   2,361.0   560,000   215,000
2070   1.70   365.5   85.1   2,340.6   560,000   215,000
2071   1.70   361.9   83.8   2,320.7   560,000   215,000
2072   1.70   358.4   82.6   2,301.0   560,000   215,000
2073   1.70   354.9   81.3   2,281.6   560,000   215,000
2074   1.70   351.5   80.2   2,262.5   560,000   215,000
2075   1.70   348.1   79.0   2,243.6   560,000   215,000
2076   1.70   344.8   77.8   2,225.1   560,000   215,000
2077   1.70   341.5   76.7   2,206.8   560,000   215,000
2078   1.70   338.3   75.6   2,188.8   560,000   215,000
2079   1.70   335.2   74.5   2,171.1   560,000   215,000
2080   1.70   332.1   73.4   2,153.6   560,000   215,000
2081   1.70   329.0   72.4   2,136.4   560,000   215,000
2082   1.70   326.0   71.3   2,119.4   560,000   215,000
2083   1.70   323.0   70.3   2,102.6   560,000   215,000
2084   1.70   320.1   69.3   2,086.1   560,000   215,000
2085   1.70   317.2   68.3   2,069.8   560,000   210,000
2086   1.70   314.3   67.4   2,053.7   560,000   210,000
2087   1.70   311.5   66.4   2,037.8   560,000   210,000
2088   1.70   308.8   65.5   2,022.2   560,000   210,000
2089   1.70   306.1   64.6   2,006.8   560,000   210,000
2090   1.70   303.4   63.7   1,991.5   560,000   210,000

a The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The assumed total fertility rate does not change after 2036.
b The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
c Net immigration values are rounded to the nearest 5,000.
d Estimates do not include persons who attained legal permanent resident status under the special one-time provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.
e Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration.
f Historical net other immigration estimates depend on a residual method, using Department of Homeland Security January 1 stock estimates for 2005 through 2010.
g Fertility estimated starting in 2009, mortality estimated starting in 2008, and immigration estimated starting in 2010.